Name: What are the actual interests of the key players in the Iran negotiations? | DW News
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Nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are set to begin against the backdrop of high tension, US Military pressure and international concern over Iran's internal crackdown.

President Donald Trump's Middle east envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi will lead their delegations at these talks in Oman.

Tehran insists that negotiations must be limited to its nuclear program.

But Washington wants the talks to include not only its nuclear activities, but

also support for armed groups around the region and the regime's crackdown on anti government protesters.

Mass protests swept across Iran last month with demonstrators calling for an end to the Islamic regime.

The crackdown by Iranian authorities left thousands dead.

The violence prompted President Trump to threaten military action, at one point telling demonstrators that, quote, help is on the way.

She is an Iran analyst and research fellow at Keele University's Institute for Security Policy.

Thank you so much for your time this morning.

What do you see as the most likely outcome of these talks?

As the package mentioned, both sides are coming to these negotiation tables with a very maximalist approach.

Now to what extent each side will be able to gain what they really look for is unclear.

But putting all the demands that the US Government is presenting Iranians with it seems very unlikely because I mean unlikely to lead into anything fruitful, to be honest, because Iran has used the same strategy.

When they, back in 2015, they were cutting a deal with the United States, the so called JCPOA for the nuclear activities.

They don't want to talk about any regional issues, about the support of the proxies, about missile program, about violation of human rights.

And that has been the playbook of the Islamic Republic.

So it seems unlikely that Donald Trump and his administration will be willing to settle with the same approach.

But at the moment this is, I think all Iran is.

But let me ask you in that vein because I mean, we know what Iran doesn't want to talk about.

They say they don't want to talk about their missile program, they don't want to talk about their domestic policy.

These are things that the Islamic Republic considers non negotiable.

But ultimately, given that the United States likely now has the military firepower to launch an attack if it wanted, does Iran have any other option than to discuss these matters and perhaps give some concessions to the Americans?

I don't think Iran has any other options other than threatening to wage an all out war on the entire region.

Basically, Iran is threatening Israel, it's threatening other regional countries in the Persian Gulf region, is threatening the United States, that if you attack us, you are going to be entangled in a very long, never ending war similar to what happened in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

Of course, Iran is not Afghanistan and Iraq.

But you know, this is the narrative that Tehran is sending now.

They wouldn't have come to the table if they did have any other options.

Domestically, regionally, internationally, they're under a lot of pressure, especially in the aftermath of the recent uprising.

But also I think equally the reason that President Trump came back to negotiation tables is that he hasn't been presented with a military option that can get him what he really is looking for, which is dismantling, complete dismantling of the nuclear program and, you know, missile program and regional activities with a quick fix.

The United States doesn't want to be entangled in a long wind at war.

But at the same time, the administration hasn't been presented with a solution.

Now, of course, the United States, I think is aware of the impact on the US Deterrence that if the failure of these talks happen, the US Must take an action.

So I don't think the US Would have came to the table without a serious military plan.

But that serious military plan is less than a desirable solution for the United States at this moment.

Can you walk us through, I mean, what must be going on right now in the diplomatic channels regionally?

Because you did talk about the regional powers, the threats that Iran is making.

I mean, many US Allies in the region are advocating vehemently against a US Strike on Iran.

Walk us through what's likely being said right now and what the concerns specifically are of regional powers.

Well, these talks are brokered and mediated with the help of Egyptian, Saudi, sorry, Egyptian, Qatari and Emirati government.

So they have really went and plead to the US Administration that we don't need yet another war in the region because this is going to burn all of us and it's not good for any of us.

Therefore, please try to find a diplomatic solution for it.

Now, how serious Iran is in its threats, what are its capabilities if a strike kicks off is really unclear.

They have maintained a very good relations with Qatar, but

when the strikes during the June took place, they were very happy to attack Al Udaid base, which is a US Base in Qatar.

So Iran has shown willingness to unleash violence and attack regional countries who actually came to help at the moment in need.

So there is a general concern across the region there was a genuine concern about the possibility of a war.

And you know, these Gulf countries have been working hard to rebrand themselves, re establish themselves, come out of the being only the energy producer countries to diversify, to at least put the diversification on their agenda to talk about AI, talk about technology and you know, advancement of the economy.

So they don't want to see that burned because of the Iranian and US military crisis.

I have to ask you just briefly before we go and really take it back to what has brought these parties to the table in the past week.

And that is, you know, the world looking on in horror amid the slaughter of thousand of Iranian civilians on the streets by the regime.

Where does the protest movement emerge from here?

Unfortunately, I don't think it's any serious meaningful part of the equation in these conversations because the Iranian side will treat that as an internal matter.

They're not interested in discussing how they treat their citizens with outside world.

They've never been, they're never going to change that.

And from the US side, that was a very useful narrative to first of all put pressure, international pressure on the Iranian government and secondly give some hope to the Iranian people to sustain their uprising.

There is a lot of conspiracy theory that this whole episode was applied by the CIA and Mossad.

I don't believe in that at all because I believe that Iranian people are under a lot of pressure.

They have sufficient grievances to take it to the street, but they are looking for outside help.

They know that every time they come out and protest, they are faced with bullets, they are faced with death, they are faced with rape, they are faced with torture, they're faced with long imprisonment.

So without external help, the Iranian people are not going to get what they want and they are really banking on the US support.

But unfortunately I think if at all the situation of human rights and protest situation is going to be on the bottom of the list of the U.S.

Iran analyst Sarah Bazoubandi with that sobering assessment.

Thank you so much for putting sharing your views and putting this into context for us.

And let's talk about that with Farwa Shesh.

He's a professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics specialising in Middle east politics, Islamism and US Foreign policy in the region.

Who wants these negotiations more, do you think the Islamic Republic or the United States?

Well, surely there is more at stake for Iran than for the United States.

What Iran is trying to do is to Prevent war, an American war, and

probably joined by Israel, which could not really have catastrophic effects on state capacity, on society, and

even on the survival of the clerical regime in Tehran.

So the reality is Iran is the next few hours and the next few, a couple of days are extremely, extremely important for Iran because Iran faces fundamental challenges at home and also external threats as well.

Iran would also like the world to be focusing on these nuclear talks in comparison to what's going on at home.

I mean, I think what we will find out in the next few hours and couple of days whether the Trump administration really is genuine about reaching an agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

Because everything that we know, the Iranian regime seems to be willing to make painful concessions on its nuclear program.

It's willing to either suspend or shut down its nuclear program.

And we have also leaked information from Russia that Iran is willing to ship its enrichment, you know, uranium enrichment to Russia as it did in 2015.

But of course Iran's ballistic missiles basically is a red line for Iran because that's the only deterrence that Iran has in case of an Israeli attack.

So if the Americans insist on discussing not only Iran's nuclear program, but

its ballistic missiles, I think the odds are against a diplomatic breakthrough in Oman.

What about US allies in the region like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, they've been lobbying against the US Striking Iran.

Even states critical of the Islamic Republic have been.

Simply because Iran's neighbors, even though they don't really care for the Iranian regime, they fear that all out war between the United States and Iran would really have spill over effects into their own society, security and economy.

And they also realize an all out war between the United States and Iran could trigger a region wide conflict because Iran supporters, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Iraq could join the fray.

And finally, I think most of Iran's neighbors now fear Israel more than Iran.

They believe that Israel could be the main beneficiary of a regime, a change in Tehran and Israel could emerge as the dominant hegemon in the Middle east as it has become so in the past two years or so.

But are we talking about fears here or the reality?