Name: 事態は悪化するばかりだ...。 (Things are only getting worse…)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T16:43:16.000Z
Duration: 17 min 54 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

is literally a war going on between the white house and the chairman of the fed.

文字通り、ホワイトハウスと連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）議長の間で戦争が起こっているのだ。

to 不定詞

On one side, we have Donald Trump who wants to lower down interest rates.

一方のドナルド・トランプは金利引き下げを望んでいる。

未来形

Because interest rates will have a profound impact on the entire economy and the GDP will grow faster.

金利は経済全体に大きな影響を与え、GDPはより速く成長するからだ。

On the other side, we have the chairman of the fed who's been trying to lower down the inflation from as far as 9% to as low as 2.4%.

他方では、インフレ率を9％から2.4％まで下げようとしているFRB議長がいる。

And that's not an easy job, it cost the fed a lot.

Because in the process, so many companies went bankrupt, the economy slowed down, but inflation also slowed down.

その過程で多くの企業が倒産し、経済は減速したが、インフレも減速した。

So a single mistake right now could undo everything that the fed has done over the last two and a half years.

つまり、今ひとつのミスが、過去2年半にわたってFRBが行ってきたことをすべて台無しにしてしまう可能性があるのだ。

Imagine you have caused so much chaos in the entire economy, only to find out that a single mistake is going to cause you to go back to the inflation of 5 to 9%.

想像してみてほしい。経済全体に大混乱を引き起こしたのに、たったひとつのミスで5～9％のインフレに逆戻りすることになる。

So it might take the fed another 2 to 3 years to fix that, which is why the fed is not going to rush.

そのため、FRBは急ぐつもりはない。

But on the other side, trump wants to lower down interest rates.

しかしその一方で、トランプは金利を引き下げたいと考えている。

There is going to be a press conference on 18th of june and some people were expecting that the fed is actually going to lower down the interest rates, since there was a meeting between jay paul and donald trump.

6月18日に記者会見が行われる予定だが、ジェイ・ポールとドナルド・トランプの会談が行われたことから、FRBが実際に金利を引き下げるのではないかと予想する人もいた。

And since a lot of central banks across the globe have already lowered down the interest rates, let me give you an example, the european union, who also experienced very high inflation.

世界中の多くの中央銀行がすでに金利を引き下げている。

Now, the inflation of 2020 wasn't just a US problem, it was a global problem, since everybody across the globe started printing so much money.

2020年のインフレはアメリカだけの問題ではなく、世界的な問題だった。

I mean, if you exclude china and a few other countries, but if you check the united states and its allies, such as canada, european union, england, all of these countries printed so much money and in result saw so much inflation.

つまり、中国や他の数カ国を除けば、米国とその同盟国であるカナダ、欧州連合、英国を調べてみると、これらの国々はすべて大量の紙幣を印刷し、その結果、大量のインフレを引き起こした。

But the interest rates in the european union have been lowered down from 4.5% to as low as 2%.

しかし、欧州連合の金利は4.5％から2％にまで引き下げられた。

So the question is that, why isn't the united states doing the exact same thing?

では、なぜアメリカはまったく同じことをしないのか？

Recently, a couple of months ago, the bank of england has also lowered down interest rates.

最近、数ヶ月前にイングランド銀行も金利を引き下げた。

And that's what confusing to donald trump and the white house right now.

そしてそれが今、ドナルド・トランプとホワイトハウスを混乱させている。

On the other hand, if you look at the US economy, the numbers are very strong.

一方、アメリカ経済を見ると、数字は非常に強い。

The reason we have an average CPI and core CPI is because we have to exclude energy and food prices.

平均CPIとコアCPIがあるのは、エネルギー価格と食品価格を除外しなければならないからだ。

Since energy and food prices are very volatile and aren't always in the hands of the fed.

エネルギーと食料の価格は非常に不安定で、常に連邦政府の手に委ねられているわけではない。

So energy prices can significantly rise, whether you want it or not, because something has happened on the other side of the world.

つまり、世界の反対側で何かが起こったからといって、望むと望まざるとにかかわらず、エネルギー価格が大幅に上昇する可能性があるのだ。

Most of the food is getting imported from the rest of the world.

食料の大半は世界各国から輸入されている。

So if they have a bad harvest on the other side of the world, suddenly there is going to be a deficit in the market and that will increase prices as well.

だから、世界の反対側で不作が続けば、突然市場に赤字が生じ、価格も上昇する。

Yes, it might not be as great as it was back in 2022 and 2023, but back in the days, we had almost 0% interest rates, where borrowing money was so cheap.

確かに、2022年や2023年当時ほどではないかもしれないが、当時は金利がほとんど0％で、お金を借りるのはとても安かった。

Companies borrowed unbelievable amounts of money.

企業は途方もない額の借金をした。

They started new projects, they invested in new factories, they started hiring people, they started paying everybody as much as they wanted.

新しいプロジェクトを立ち上げ、新しい工場に投資し、人を雇い始め、みんなに好きなだけ給料を払い始めた。

Another reason for the interest rates to be dropped is because there is a deal between China and the United States.

金利が下がるもう一つの理由は、中国とアメリカの間で取引があるからだ。

Remember in the last press conference, the chairman of the fed made it clear.

前回の記者会見で、連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）議長が明言したことを思い出してほしい。

We cannot possibly lower down interest rates because we don't know what is going to be the final outcome of the trade war that Donald Trump has started.

ドナルド・トランプが始めた貿易戦争の最終的な結果がどうなるかわからないため、金利を引き下げることはできない。

On one side, we want to lower down interest rates.

On the other side, what if these tariffs are going to import a lot of smartphones, electronics and a lot of things from China.

一方、この関税によって中国から多くのスマートフォンや電子機器、多くのものが輸入されるとしたらどうだろう。

And the trade war wasn't just with China, it was with literally every country on earth.

貿易戦争は中国とのものだけでなく、文字通り地球上のすべての国とのものだった。

And the only deal that the United States back in the day have reached was with the United Kingdom.

その昔、米国が唯一合意したのは英国との取引だった。

And now a deal with China is actually a good reason for the Fed to consider maybe it's time to lower down interest rates.

そして今、中国との取引は、FRBが金利引き下げを検討する良い理由になっている。

But despite all of these great reasons that we have to lower down interest rates, seems like that's not going to happen.

しかし、金利を下げなければならないこれだけの素晴らしい理由があるにもかかわらず、それは実現しそうにない。

So here in this video, let me explain what exactly has changed and why the Fed most likely will keep the interest rates at their current rates.

そこでこのビデオでは、いったい何が変わったのか、そしてなぜFRBが金利を現在のまま維持する可能性が高いのかを説明しよう。

Interest rates have the most profound impact on the entire global economy, especially the United States, but specifically the stock market.

金利は世界経済全体、特に米国、そして特に株式市場に最も大きな影響を与える。

Now, it doesn't matter what happens to the economy.

今、経済がどうなろうと関係ない。

If interest rates are being lowered, they will have real instant on the entire stock market.

金利が引き下げられれば、株式市場全体が影響を受ける。

Some stocks will rise and some stocks will fall.

ある銘柄は上昇し、ある銘柄は下落する。

And that's because they either make the future cash flow more expensive or cheaper.

それは、将来のキャッシュフローを高くするか安くするかのどちらかだからだ。

Now, most of the tech companies do not make a lot of money.

今、技術系企業のほとんどは大金を稼いでいない。

In fact, they operate at a loss for many years to come, and sometime in the future, they promise to make astronomical amounts of money.

実際、この先何年も赤字で運営され、いつかは天文学的な金額を稼ぎ出すと約束されている。

Amazon was running at a loss for over 20 years, and suddenly they are competing with Walmart, and they are one of the biggest and largest companies in the entire world.

アマゾンは20年以上も赤字経営をしていたのに、突然ウォルマートと競合するようになり、全世界で最大級の大企業になった。

Tesla is making some money right now, but at the end of the day, the reason that Tesla is being valued at around a trillion dollars isn't based on how much money they make right now, but rather because they promise to make a ton of money sometime in the future.

テスラは今儲かっているが、結局のところ、テスラが1兆ドル前後で評価されている理由は、今どれだけ儲かっているかということではなく、将来的に大儲けが約束されているからなのだ。

That future might be 5 years from now, 10 years from now, and we have different valuation metrics to find out how much possibly these companies make.

その未来は5年後かもしれないし、10年後かもしれない。私たちは、これらの企業がどれくらいの利益を上げる可能性があるのかを知るために、さまざまな評価基準を持っている。

Now, but what is the true value of that money that will come sometime in the future?

さて、しかし、いつか来るであろうそのお金の本当の価値は何だろうか？

Because according to the basic laws of economics, a dollar today worth a lot more than a dollar tomorrow.

経済学の基本法則によれば、今日の1ドルは明日の1ドルよりもはるかに価値があるからだ。

So if Tesla is going to make a hundred billion dollars a hundred years from now, what is the value of that hundred billion dollars?

では、テスラが100年後に1000億ドルを稼ぐとしたら、その1000億ドルの価値は？

They don't worth as much as they are worth right because look at the dollar, over the last 5-6 decades, dollar lost 97 of its value.

ドルを見てほしい。過去50～60年の間に、ドルはその価値の97％を失った。

So we have something called finding the present value of that future cash flow, and whenever interest rates are dropped, that future cash flow becomes much more valuable.

金利が下がれば下がるほど、その将来キャッシュフローの価値は高くなる。

Let's say hypothetically that we have a company that promises to make a thousand dollars a year from now, and interest rates are 10%.

仮に、今から1年後に1,000ドルの利益を約束する会社があり、金利が10％だとしよう。

Now, we have to deduct 10% because if we had that thousand dollars today in our pocket, we could have invested that money.

今、私たちのポケットにその1000ドルがあれば、そのお金を投資できたかもしれないので、10％を差し引かなければならない。

We might have simply kept it in the bank as a safe deposit and earn interest of 10%.

単純に銀行に預けておけば、10％の利子がついたかもしれない。

So because interest rates that are set by the Fed at 10%, we only deduct 10%, which means that the true value of that thousand dollars today is $90.

つまり、FRBが設定する金利は10％であるため、私たちは10％を差し引くだけで、今日のその千ドルの真の価値は90ドルということになる。

If suddenly the next day, Fed is going to lower down interest rates from 10% to 5%.

翌日突然、FRBが金利を10％から5％に引き下げるとしたら。

Now, we only have to deduct 5%, which means that the present value of the thousand dollars just increased from $90 to $95.

今なら5％を差し引くだけでよいので、1000ドルの現在価値は90ドルから95ドルに増えたことになる。

Which is why whenever you see that the Fed has lowered down interest rates, instantly those companies that promise to make astronomical amounts of profits sometime in the future, their valuation instantly rise in the market, their prices instantly rise in the market, even though they did not come up with any kind of a new product, their valuations on paper instantly rises.

だからこそ、FRBが金利を引き下げたと見るや否や、将来天文学的な利益を上げると約束されている企業の評価が市場で瞬時に上昇し、新商品を出したわけでもないのに価格が瞬時に上昇するのだ。

The second most important thing is, of course, the cost of capital goes down, and that's great both for businesses and personally for you, because mortgage rates go down as well.

住宅ローンの金利も下がるからだ。

When you have more access to the capital, more money is being spent by corporations, which means more jobs will be available.

資本へのアクセスが増えれば、企業によって使われる資金も増え、雇用も増える。

And this is probably the most are going to boost the GDP during his presidential term.

そして、これはおそらく、彼の大統領任期中にGDPを押し上げることになるだろう。

But most importantly, it is going to increase government spending.

しかし最も重要なのは、政府支出を増やすことだ。

All you have to do is to take a look at the national debt of the United States, and suddenly you see a huge problem.

アメリカの国家債務を見れば、突然、大きな問題が見えてくる。

But guess what happens when the cost of capital goes down?

しかし、資本コストが下がったらどうなると思う？

The government becomes even more hungry, and it starts borrowing more money, and it starts spending more money, which is on one side is great for the economy, but on the other side, maybe that's why the Fed is like, wait a second, should we actually lower down interest rates?

政府はさらに腹をくくり、より多くの金を借り始め、より多くの金を使い始める。それは一方では経済にとって素晴らしいことだが、もう一方では、だからこそFRBは、ちょっと待てよ、実際に金利を引き下げるべきなのか？

Because the government is already in trouble, and now by lowering down interest rates, we might make the entire situation much, much worse.

というのも、政府はすでに問題を抱えており、今金利を引き下げることで、状況全体をもっともっと悪化させる可能性があるからだ。

But this is the reason why most likely the Fed is going to flip on their decisions and interest rates will not be lowered.

しかしこれが、FRBが決定を翻し、金利が引き下げられない可能性が高い理由だ。

And that's because oil prices are playing havoc with us again.

それは、原油価格が再び私たちを翻弄しているからだ。

If you look at oil prices, they always has been extremely volatile.

原油価格を見ると、常に非常に不安定だ。

At least in the last 30 years, either they go up instantly whenever there is a conflict in the world, or suddenly whenever there is a crisis, you see oil prices are crushing from as far as $140 to as low as $60.

少なくとも過去30年間は、世界で紛争が起きると即座に上昇するか、危機が起きると突然、原油価格が140ドルから60ドルまで暴落した。

Iran is certainly one of the largest oil producers in the world, but their oil does not hit the entire Iran has been under sanctions for many years, which is why they produce around 3.5 million barrels per day.

イランは確かに世界有数の産油国だが、その石油はイラン全土に行き渡らない。イランは長年にわたって制裁下にあり、そのため生産量は日量350万バレル程度だ。

If you compare that to Russia, that's only a third of what Russia produces.

ロシアと比較すれば、ロシアの生産量の3分の1にすぎない。

And when the Russo-Ukrainian war started, suddenly, everybody thought that there is going to be a huge deficit of oil in the market, since first of all, they sanctioned Russia.

ロシア・ウクライナ戦争が始まると、まずロシアが制裁を受けたため、石油は市場で大赤字になると誰もが考えた。

Secondly, if that war would have been dragged into the entire Russia, that could actually create a huge market, which is why you see that oil prices have risen dramatically from as low as $50 per barrel to as high as $114.

第二に、もしこの戦争がロシア全土に飛び火するようなことになれば、巨大な市場が形成される可能性があり、そのために原油価格は1バレルあたり50ドルという安値から114ドルという高値まで劇的に上昇した。

If I am not mistaken, they went into as far as $125 at certain point during that time.

私の記憶に間違いがなければ、その間、ある時期には125ドルにもなった。

Such a significant rise in oil prices was one of the primary reasons of inflation hitting so high back in 2022.

このような原油価格の大幅な上昇は、2022年にインフレが高水準に達した主な原因のひとつだった。

Yes, oil prices have decreased since then.

そう、それ以来、原油価格は下がっている。

Yes, Iran is not such a major oil producing country such as Russia, and the United States right now is oil sufficient.

そう、イランはロシアのような主要産油国ではないし、今のアメリカは石油が足りている。

There is a tiny strait in the entire Persian Gulf where a third of all the oil in the world passes.

ペルシャ湾全体に、世界の石油の3分の1が通過する小さな海峡がある。

So you have Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, all of these countries produce most of the oil in the world, and their tankers pass through this entire strait, which means that if Iran is going be dragged into a corner, they will certainly start hitting all the tankers that cross this strait, which means that there is a possibility that there will be a shortage of a third of all the oil in the world.

つまり、サウジアラビア、カタール、バーレーン、クウェート、これらすべての国が世界の石油のほとんどを生産しており、そのタンカーがこの海峡全体を通過している。イランが窮地に追い込まれることになれば、彼らはこの海峡を通過するすべてのタンカーを攻撃し始めるに違いない。

Yes, there is a possibility to entwine the entire logistics of oil, there is a possibility that oil will no longer be passing through the strait of Hormuz, there is a possibility to redirect the entire logistics of oil, but that will take hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, and it's not being done instantly, it will take some time for that to be done.

そう、石油の物流全体を巻き込む可能性はある。石油がホルムズ海峡を通らなくなる可能性もあるし、石油の物流全体を方向転換する可能性もある。しかし、それには数千億ドルの投資が必要で、即座に実行されるわけではなく、時間がかかるだろう

And if the entire global supply chains are going to be halted for some time, even for a few weeks, it is going to have a devastating impact.

そして、グローバルなサプライチェーン全体がしばらくの間、たとえ数週間でも停止することになれば、壊滅的な影響を及ぼすことになる。

Remember the covid crisis in 2020, when those logistics or the global supply chains were being halted for a couple of months, they caused havoc for the entire global economy, and it took years for them to be restored, which is exactly what is going to happen in this case, which means that there is a possibility for oil prices to go beyond a hundred dollars within the next couple of weeks, which is again, is making the fed very nervous.

2020年のコビド危機を思い出してほしい。物流やグローバル・サプライ・チェーンが数カ月間ストップし、世界経済全体に大混乱を引き起こした。

Even though that Saudi Arabia is a neighbor of Iran, they are interested for this conflict to be dragged for as long as possible.

サウジアラビアはイランの隣国であるにもかかわらず、この紛争をできるだけ長引かせたいと考えている。

They are against the entire war in the region because it's going to have devastating implications on everybody.

彼らはこの地域での戦争全体に反対している。

But having these two countries in tension and fighting this little war by sending rockets on each other, yes, it's not a full-blown war, but it's creating so much tension in the entire global markets that people are afraid that this is going to turn into a huge war, which means that people are scared and they will start buying more oil, which means that the demand for oil starts rising, which means that the Saudi budget is going to be filled with hundreds of dollars.

しかし、この2つの国が緊張状態にあり、互いにロケット弾を飛ばして小さな戦争を繰り広げているということは、そう、本格的な戦争ではないのだが、世界市場全体に大きな緊張を与えている。

Especially when Saudi Arabia is going through a serious crisis, they are trying to transform the entire country and they no longer have those trillions of dollars that they had back in the days, since the demand for oil is going down.

特にサウジアラビアが深刻な危機を迎えているとき、彼らは国全体を変革しようとしている。

Secondly, Russia is interested for this conflict to prolong for as long as possible, since they are also very dependent on oil prices, and high oil prices is going to fill their budget with hundreds of billions of dollars.

第二に、ロシアはこの紛争ができるだけ長期化することを望んでいる。なぜなら、ロシアもまた石油価格に大きく依存しており、石油価格の高騰は数千億ドルの予算を潤すことになるからだ。

Oil companies in the US are also interested in that, which means that they will start lobbying other politicians to make sure that this conflict is going to be prolonged for as long as possible, since the higher the oil prices, the more money Exxon is going to make, the more money BP is going to make, and they have a huge lobbying presence in Washington.

つまり、原油価格が上がれば上がるほど、エクソンは儲かり、BPも儲かり、彼らはワシントンで巨大なロビー活動を展開しているからだ。

リンジー・グラハムの例を見てみよう。

This guy has been going into Fox News and other network channels to promote that United States must get involved into this war.

この男はフォックス・ニュースや他のネットワーク・チャンネルに出演し、米国はこの戦争に参加しなければならないと宣伝している。

And that's another problem, because a war creates uncertainty.

戦争は不確実性を生むからだ。

We don't know how this war is going to end.

この戦争がどう終わるかはわからない。

The one thing as a business you don't want is uncertainty.

ビジネスとして避けたいのは不確実性だ。