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  • 2016 is almost over, here on Wall Street.

  • Here's 2017 in a minute.

  • Now emerging markets have been in a bear market for more than 5 years now,

  • but they're not one homogenous mass.

  • If you take a look at how they fare since emerging markets beat,

  • you can see that Asia has performed very much better.

  • And that the performance of Eastern Europe and Latin America, two very different parts of the world, is remarkably similar.

  • That suggests that passive investment that treats emerging market as one block continues to dominate in the stock floors.

  • There may be advantages for that in a very long term but it suggests that it's difficult still to pick for value on the bottom up basis in emerging market. It's a problem.

  • Now the other critical measure we need to look at is the currency.

  • As you can see, emerging market currencies have weakened very dramatically.

  • They appeared to be recovering but with the advent of Donald Trump, they have weakened once more.

  • To see a real recovery in emerging markets we need to see those currencies recover,

  • and whether whatever happens in the first few weeks of the Trump presidency.

  • And that is the New York Minute

2016 is almost over, here on Wall Street.

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2017 in a minute: 新興市場 (2017 in a minute: emerging markets)

  • 345 20
    Jerry shiu に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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