Name: Analyst: Russian aggression does not stop at the sovereignty of Ukraine | DW News
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Now, the Kremlin says talks between the United States and Russian negotiators towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine should not be seen as a breakthrough.

Over the weekend, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner held parallel talks with Russian and Ukrainian officials.

基礎受動態

Although Washington and Kyiv say progress was made.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky once again stressed the need for building security guarantees today.

Our negotiation team is already returning after meetings in America with representatives of President Trump.

Tomorrow morning, I expect a full report on prepared documents.

A lot has been worked on, primarily documents on security guarantees, as well as the 20 points of the main document, the basic framework discussed by Ukrainian and American delegations.

But of course, speculation continues as to what exactly these security guarantees could encompass.

Konstanze Schtzenmuller from the Brookings Institution told DW News how much actual support Ukraine can expect.

The US President Trump was hoping to broker a deal to end the Russian war against Ukraine by Christmas.

We've seen talks in Miami, separate talks with Russian and Ukrainian representatives.

It seems to me that based on what we heard Putin say in his famous annual press conference at the end of last week, or indeed what we have heard his senior adviser Ushakov say after the Miami talks, that we are still quite far away from that.

Putin said in his news conference that Russia absolutely has the military strategic initiative on the battlefield.

And Ushakov thought that the or said that the proposals being discussed and put forward by the Ukrainians were, I quote, rather unconstructive.

In the news reports from Miami, they say that there's been some progress on security guarantees for Ukraine.

Before, there was talk about NATO Article 5 like guarantees for Ukraine.

So is it really something that you think is plausible because Russia is against Ukraine's NATO membership?

Why should Russia say no to Article 5 like guarantees?

Well, I think we should start by noting by pointing out that you and I, and

I think most other people who don't possess classified information have not seen any details on what Article 5 like guarantees would be.

And the thing about Article 5, it really is like pregnancy, although it's, you know, never been clearly defined.

Either you provide Article 5 security guarantees or you don't.

It seems to me that anything that is remotely convincing as a security guarantee from the American side would be a reliable promise that America would come to the aid of, say, a European security force in Ukraine.

The Americans are still providing Europe with the nuclear umbrella.

They are still providing Europe and by extension Ukraine with the support from their strategic enablers, satellite based intelligence and so on.

I think if limiting an article like Article 5, like security guarantee to that kind of support is unpersuasive, it's only really like Article 5 if there is genuine military support.

And I find that hard to believe at this point.

Donald Trump has positioned himself as a mediator in this Russian war against Ukraine, not as Ukraine's partner, just like Europeans, for example.

And in Europe, also here in Germany, there is a general opinion in the media or among politicians that Trump is actually siding with Russia.

Some disagree and say this is not the case.

I think for a member of NATO, a founding member of NATO, and

of course the first among equals within NATO like the United States, to position itself as a mediator in a conflict that is clearly also affecting the security order of Europe is very strange and as we know is deeply concerning to European security policymakers.

I would not say that Trump is generally siding with Russia, but

he has been oscillating between support for Ukraine, support for Russian positions and then withdrawing to this so called mediator position in ways that are deeply unhelpful for the credibility of Western support for Ukraine.

What Donald Trump the United States are discussing with Russia, and

this is obviously Russian aim is to do business with the United States in the Arctic in energy sector, you name it.

So how likely do you think is that Donald Trump as US President would start doing business with Russia even if the negotiations on Ukraine fail?

I have absolutely no idea and I don't see frankly why we should ask the question in such a way.

For one, I'm assuming that Donald Trump himself is not doing the business if there is business to be done.

But American companies and American companies are not going to take the existence of negotiations as an obstacle, at least not if they are as risk happy as some of these investors who have been cited in previous news reports seem to be.

I think these days to do business in Russia you have to be very, very risk prone.

And that is again why I assume that the existence of a war negotiations wouldn't really change their calculus.

The larger question is whether there would be the Trump administration's blessing for such endeavors that I have a harder time seeing.

Okay, let's speculate just one more point and assume that Trump lifts some of the sanctions against Russia.

And then the US Businesses start doing something with Russian businesses.

What do you think the reaction in Europe will be in Germany, in France?

Will there be businesses here who will say, hey, we want to do the same?

Look, I would just point out that there are still European businesses and German businesses who are still doing business in Russia, who still have endeavors there.

And to the extent that the risk element in business globally has become much, much higher and therefore much costlier for businesses, perhaps companies in Germany will want to start spreading their risk again and engage with Russia.

I find that personally unattractive, but the answer is, I don't know.

Let's talk about the United States in one more question.

According to the polls, most Americans still want the US to support Ukraine.

They support Ukraine also in the United States politics, Democrats and also Republicans as well.

So Trump's own party, how big is is it risk, political risk, for Donald Trump to stop supporting Ukraine?

Well, two senators, New Hampshire's Jean Shaheen, who was also the chairman woman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, and

Mitch McConnell, her predecessor, who is now the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, have just published an op ed in the Washington Post saying that Putin is not winning on the battlefield and America should continue to support Ukraine and Europe.

That at least is a sign that there are elements in Congress willing to put political muscle behind that support.

You will also recall that the National Defence Authorization act, the NDAA about a week ago, made sure that the Trump Pentagon could not withdraw troops from Europe, could not withdraw the American secular position and so on, made sure that troop positioning in Europe is funded.

You can see from these acts that there is still considerable report, not just in the American public, but

also among American policymakers and politicians.

But if your larger question is what could put a dent in Trump's popularity, I personally don't think it's Ukraine.

I think that what he's currently struggling with is other issues that are more about domestic politics and less about his foreign policy.

One of them is the Epstein scandal, which is not going away.

Ordinary Americans don't like pedophilia, understandably.

And the implication of Republican officials, even of Trump himself in these files has been pointed out repeatedly.

That, I think is still an issue of concern.

And then there is a larger issue, even I think, of affordability, the fact that prices aren't going down, that people are struggling to make ends meet.

And that, I think is making the administration the most nervous.

There is finally another issue, the split within the maga, right, over racism and anti Semitism.

That's A very real concern, and it is making some quarters unhappy.

But if I had to rank the things that are upsetting Americans and that could present a political risk in the midterms next November, then I think the economy and affordability is right at the top.

Then the issues around personal probity of the President and his advisers come next.

And then foreign policy probably ranks at the bottom.

A few days ago at the EU summit in Brussels, the European Commission failed to get a decision on frozen Russian assets for them to be used to help Ukraine.

So Ukraine will get a 90 billion euro loan, but it will not be Russian money.

Because it was German Chancellors Friedrich Merz initiatives, so to say, you know, pessimistic as I am on many points on this one, I'm more glass half full.

I think we should all be relieved that Ukraine can now use this money for the next two years.

That is a really important sign to Russia that we are sticking with them and that we cannot be exhausted and that we cannot be divided over this.

Other commentators have pointed out that there is an element of irony in the fact that a Belgian Flemish separatist made the European Union take out Eurobonds.

And interestingly enough, the Eurosceptics in Germany, of which there are some, even in the Chancellor Merz's cdu, csu, or within his coalition partner, the sbd, have, have not really objected to this.

So I think at this point, we are, the actors themselves, are taking the position.

You know what, it's good that we have this and we need to make sure that Putin doesn't manage to split us on other things.

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Analyst: Russian aggression does not stop at the sovereignty of Ukraine | DW News

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