Name: 批判的思考パート5：ギャンブラーの誤謬 (Critical Thinking Part 5: The Gambler's Fallacy)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:29:37.000Z
Duration: 2 min 58 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：TOEIC

You've watched that coin flip nine times.

then tails, tails, tails, tails, tails, tails.

There are patterns everywhere in the universe,

and our brain is very good at recognising them.

It can readily see patterns that just aren't there

In truth, there is a fifty percent chance of heads

and a fifty percent chance of tails, after every toss.

But it's hard to shake that feeling that there's a pattern in there somewhere -

Our assumption that probability changes, depending on past results.

It's all a matter of probability, one of the more complicated forms of logic.

it was only a few centuries ago that some smart French chaps by the names of

worked out much of the mathematics behind it.

Our brains make it difficult for us to see the logic in probability and lead

For example, seeing a flash of lightning and hearing a boom of thunder

makes it seem like as if the thunder was caused by the lightning.

But what if you ate a hotdog and then got sick. Was it the hotdog, or was it something else entirely?

Medicine is full of such head scratching questions. People take pills and feel

But a lot of logic and probability is needed to determine whether the pills were

truly responsible. Just because one thing follows another, even if it happens a

few times, does not necessarily mean that they're linked. There could be other

factors, or it could simply be coincidence.

To know for sure you have to test the circumstances again and again,

looking for those other factors that could disprove the link.

This reinforces confidence that your pattern is true.

So while our brains see patterns, and this is often very useful, it takes science to prove