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  • Five years ago, 346 people were killed in two plane

  • crashes that happened five months apart in

  • Indonesia and Ethiopia.

  • Both planes were Boeing 737 Max eight seconds.

  • Then this past January, Boeing came inches from

  • yet another catastrophe as a door plug blew off an

  • Alaska Airlines 737 Max nine plane at 16,000ft

  • shortly after taking off from Portland, Oregon.

  • Nightmare scenario for passengers.

  • The clothes on one child sucked out.

  • This was no

  • surprise. Unfortunately, the company has struggled

  • mightily with manufacturing and we've

  • had over 20 production quality defects.

  • You know, it's hard to keep up with all of them.

  • No one was seriously injured in the accident,

  • but the blown off panel produced a force so strong

  • that some headrests and seatbacks were ripped from

  • the cabin. Fortunately, no one was sitting in the

  • two seats next to the panel.

  • I saw the picture, everybody saw the opening,

  • but what I really saw was the empty seat.

  • I imagine every human being who would see that

  • understands the severity and the consequence.

  • There was a time when people said, if it's not

  • Boeing, I'm not going now.

  • There are passengers who avoid or are scared to get

  • on Boeing airplanes.

  • The Department of Justice has opened a criminal

  • investigation into the Alaska Airlines incident,

  • and the Federal Aviation Administration said it

  • found dozens of problems after auditing Boeing's

  • manufacturing process.

  • It just raises issues about the production at

  • Boeing. What's going on? There have been a series

  • of problems over the last few years, and we just

  • need to get our arms around that.

  • Boeing announced major management changes.

  • Ceo Dave Calhoun, who was brought in to get the

  • company out of the Max crisis in 2019, just

  • announced he'll be stepping down at the end

  • of 2024.

  • We have another mountain to climb.

  • Let's not avoid what happened with Alaska Air.

  • Let's not avoid the call for action.

  • We will get through that. And I've committed myself

  • to the board to do exactly that.

  • Boeing's stock has also been on a decline.

  • It hit an all time high in 2019, before the Max

  • crash in Ethiopia plummeted during the

  • pandemic, and is down over 25% so far in 2024.

  • My sense is until you get an all clear, the stock

  • will probably be stuck in a range.

  • And you know, the key question, really, I mean,

  • the multi-billion dollar question is when does the

  • all clear and we just don't know yet.

  • CNBC explores how the 737 Max crisis unfolded, and

  • what the future holds for Boeing's best selling jet.

  • The official 737 christening ceremony took

  • place in the new final Assembly building on

  • January 17th, 1967.

  • The first Boeing 737 debuted in 1967.

  • Over the last few decades, strong demand for

  • the twin engine narrowbody jets led to

  • many evolutions. Of the 737 family, there have

  • been over 10,007 37 seconds made, and it's

  • flown over 30 billion passengers.

  • The plane is so popular that Boeing estimates a

  • 737 takes off, or lands every 1.5 seconds.

  • If you've flown, you've likely flown at some point

  • in your life on a 737.

  • It's one of the most commonly used aircraft by

  • airlines around the world.

  • The commercial aircraft market is dominated by

  • Boeing and Airbus.

  • Together, their planes represented over 75% of

  • aircraft flying last year.

  • The two compete on various types of

  • jetliners, especially narrow body planes like

  • the 737 and A320, which account for close to 60%

  • of the global fleet.

  • In 2011, Boeing was under pressure after Airbus

  • launched an upgrade to its existing narrow body

  • plane called the A320neo, which stands for New

  • Engine option. The plane was more fuel efficient

  • and could save airlines money.

  • American Airlines and exclusive Boeing customer

  • at the time, was ready to place a big order with

  • Airbus and told Boeing it would have to move quickly

  • to win the airline over.

  • Boeing took a lot of shortcuts in developing

  • this aircraft, and those shortcuts literally bit

  • Boeing in its behind.

  • Designing a new airplane could take up to a decade

  • and billions of dollars in investment.

  • Boeing decided to re-engine the 737 with a

  • new engine variant, which was more fuel efficient

  • and called it the 737 Max.

  • It's a very simple reason why Boeing was looking at

  • Re-engining, essentially the 737, which had already

  • been around for decades.

  • It's cheaper. So instead of building a plane or

  • designing a plane from scratch, what they did was

  • made some changes to the existing aircraft to get

  • planes to market faster and then not to lose out

  • on orders to their rival, Airbus.

  • It offers four different sizes of the aircraft the

  • Max, seven, eight, nine, and ten.

  • The Max eight received FAA certification in 2017.

  • During development, Boeing engineers observed

  • the nose tendency to pitch up during a specific

  • extreme maneuver.

  • This led to the design of a software called the

  • Maneuvering Characteristics

  • Augmentation System, or MCAS, which would push the

  • airplane's nose down in the Max eight crashes in

  • Indonesia and Ethiopia.

  • Mcas was activated after receiving inaccurate

  • sensor data. It repeatedly pointed the

  • nose downward until it struck the ground.

  • Pilots on both flights fought to override the

  • system, but both ended in fatal crashes.

  • Pilots of all Max planes were not made aware of

  • MCAS existence until two weeks after the first

  • crash. It wasn't until after the second crash,

  • nearly five months later, that those planes were

  • grounded. The grounding lasted for 20 months, the

  • longest in aviation history.

  • A report from Congress found numerous design,

  • management and regulatory failures by both Boeing

  • and the FAA.

  • It detailed what it called a deeply disturbing

  • picture of cultural issues, and said that it

  • will take a long time and serious efforts to

  • thoroughly resolve.

  • In the five years since, Boeing has spent billions

  • trying to recover, but its reputation took

  • another damaging hit after January's Max nine

  • door incident.

  • It's a different set of lessons drilling holes

  • wrong, not putting in bolts right in.

  • In one one sense, the quality issues are much

  • more simple where the the MCAS issue, the control

  • system issue that they had on the max before was

  • in many ways more insidious, because it was

  • just a fundamental design flaw in the airplane.

  • When the first series of accidents occurred,

  • killing 346 people, Boeing was almost in

  • denial of any problems.

  • The most recent problem, Boeing, to its credit,

  • stepped up to the plate and they said, look, this

  • is a problem. We have to investigate it and we have

  • to fix it. And they've owned it.

  • While Boeing and the FAA have responded more

  • aggressively to the Max nine issue, reports and

  • audits of the accident are uncovering new

  • problems. Preliminary reports said the door

  • panel that flew off the Max nine appeared to be

  • missing four key bolts.

  • Boeing has also said that there is not paperwork

  • that has documented the door plug getting opened

  • and getting closed, while wrapping up manufacturing

  • on that plane.

  • The FAA production audit found multiple instances

  • where both Boeing and fuselage maker spirit

  • AeroSystems allegedly failed to comply with

  • manufacturing quality control problems.

  • The fuselage of the 737 Max aircraft is made by a

  • company in Wichita called spirit AeroSystems.

  • No relation, by the way, to Spirit Airlines.

  • There were issues beyond what happened on the

  • January 5th flight. There were planes with mis

  • drilled holes. There were parts of the fuselage that

  • were not up to standard.

  • Spirit AeroSystems used to be Boeing.

  • Wichita. Boeing spun off its Wichita unit as spirit

  • AeroSystems to improve profitability.

  • That puts the financial squeeze on spirit

  • AeroSystems to build the fuselages for the lowest

  • possible cost.

  • Clearly, this has come with some intangible cost

  • in terms of quality control.

  • About 70% of Spirit's revenue last year came

  • from making parts from Boeing. It's their biggest

  • customer, and then about 25% is coming from Airbus.

  • Boeing is now looking at purchasing spirit.

  • Some say like it'll give them a little bit more

  • control or a little bit more visibility into its

  • supply chain.

  • Experts also suggest the change in workforce

  • post-pandemic could be affecting.

  • Quality. And it's not a Boeing specific issue,

  • particularly post-Covid getting experienced labor.

  • There was a lot of retirement. You think,

  • well, you have a workforce that maybe

  • wasn't experienced where there are several

  • variables going on within an experienced workforce

  • where, you know, quite innocently, they just left

  • something off and it wasn't caught by the

  • system. That's where you worry, because that should

  • have been caught by the system. And then the big

  • question is, if that wasn't caught, what else

  • hasn't been caught?

  • Boeing has also been under pressure to ramp up

  • production. The company has delivered 1,462 Max

  • aircraft, but has 4,752 unfulfilled Max orders.

  • This has caused a number of issues for the

  • airlines.

  • Some of Boeing's biggest customers are having to

  • scale back their growth plans a little bit.

  • United is pausing pilot hiring for a couple of

  • months. Southwest Airlines is having to cut

  • some of its flight schedules for 2024 because

  • the planes are arriving late.

  • I'm disappointed that the manufacturing challenges

  • do keep happening at Boeing. This isn't new.

  • I'm disappointed in that.

  • Southwest and United have the most Boeing 737 Max

  • planes in their fleets, so the grounding of these

  • planes has had a ripple effect.

  • Airbus, meanwhile, has been slowly chipping away

  • at Boeing's market share.

  • Boeing had a big increase in net orders from 774

  • planes in 2022 to 1,314 planes in 2023, but Airbus

  • had over 2,000 orders last year.

  • It has delivered more planes and received more

  • orders for the fifth consecutive year in a row.

  • In the late 1990s, Boeing merged with McDonnell

  • Douglas. It was an aircraft manufacturer

  • which made commercial planes like the MD 11 and

  • MD 80, as well as space and military aircraft.

  • There is a belief that the focus at Boeing has

  • shifted since this merger with McDonnell Douglas to

  • profitability, as opposed to, uh, engineering

  • excellence.

  • I think one of the big, you know, indicators of

  • that was moving the corporate headquarters

  • away from any of the big manufacturing sites.

  • After the 1997 merger, Boeing moved its corporate

  • headquarters after 85 years in Seattle to

  • Chicago and more recently to Arlington, Virginia.

  • 27 years later, experts and CEOs are still blaming

  • that merger for the more recent issues.

  • My assessment is, you know, this goes all the

  • way back to the McDonnell Douglas merger, and it

  • started a change in culture.

  • If I were.

  • Making recommendations to the company, I would say,

  • yeah, sure. Management should be located in the

  • Puget Sound region, their biggest manufacturing

  • site, and in fact, they should be sleeping on the

  • factory floor at this point to get everything

  • kind of back in order.

  • Many of Boeing's other programs have also faced

  • problems. They've faced cost overruns, and they've

  • faced quality control problems.

  • Profitability, of course, matters, but you're not

  • going to be a profitable company if your customers

  • don't believe you have the products they need to

  • buy. And airlines have been opting for Airbus

  • airplanes a lot more recently than Boeing.

  • Boeing had already been under pressure to deliver

  • more airplanes.

  • It has a backlog of over 6,000 total orders, and

  • its leaders don't want to lose more market share to

  • Airbus, which had a backlog of over 8,000

  • planes at the end of 2023.

  • You really only have two suppliers of large

  • commercial airplanes, and Airbus can't do it all.

  • Will Boeing turn itself around? Yeah.

  • Most certainly it will.

  • Um, it's going to take time, though.

  • The eyes of the airline world are focused on

  • Boeing and the FAA to make sure the 737 Max's in

  • production are produced without flaws.

  • Two months after the Alaska Airlines panel blew

  • out, the National Transportation Safety

  • Board chair criticized the company for its lack

  • of cooperation in the Max nine probe.

  • Boeing CEO has said that he's very serious about

  • addressing the quality control problems and that

  • it's their main priority right now, but customers

  • are waiting for their airplanes.

  • The 737 Max nines have returned to the skies, but

  • the Max seven and ten have yet to be certified

  • and are years behind schedule, facing more

  • rigorous testing requirements. After the

  • other Max issues.

  • We've considered multiple manufacturers.

  • We look at every aircraft. Other

  • manufacturers are also having issues with

  • aircraft and delivery. And so Boeing having some

  • production issues. We've enhanced our oversight of

  • Boeing's production process. In fact, we did

  • that in 2022.

  • And so that will continue. And we might

  • even bring it up a little bit.

  • I'm disappointed. And especially because Boeing

  • is they're not only our most important partner,

  • they're one of the most important companies in the

  • country. They're important to the United

  • States.

  • Some of Boeing's best customers have expressed

  • frustration at the company for the delays.

  • We've heard from United Airlines, for example,

  • saying, you know, stop building the Max ten, a

  • plane that isn't even certified yet and build

  • the ones that you can deliver to us, and we can

  • fly tomorrow.

  • Southwest's CEO.

  • This is a CEO that runs an all Boeing 737 airline,

  • one of Boeing's best customers, saying that

  • Boeing needs to become a better company.

  • That's very strong language coming from

  • Southwest Airlines.

  • Boeing has replaced the CEO of its commercial

  • airplane business, Stan Deal, with Stephanie Pope,

  • and will now begin a CEO search to replace outgoing

  • CEO Dave Calhoun.

  • I want somebody who knows how to handle a big, long,

  • long cycle business like ours.

  • It's not just the production of the

  • airplane, it's the development of the next

  • airplane. It'll be a $50 billion investment.

  • Despite significant management changes,

  • experts still say it will be a long road for Boeing

  • to get back to its once excellent reputation for

  • safety over profits.

  • Product life cycles can be decades, and you have an

  • investor base that wants returns.

  • You know, maybe this week, if not this quarter,

  • and the two are misaligned. So I think

  • investors have to be willing to take a little

  • back seat while the company is focusing on

  • quality compliance.

  • You can't force the financials on top of

  • everything else. So how long does it take?

  • My guess is it's going to take a while.

  • What's a while? Probably a couple of years.

  • Boeing has a very proud history.

  • I certainly hope to see Boeing regain the mojo,

  • the magic that the company once had.

  • Because to be very honest, if Boeing doesn't

  • regain that focus, not only is Airbus going to, I

  • think, win more orders, but Boeing becomes

  • potentially weaker against other new entrants

  • such as Comac from China.

  • We are at the early stages of responding to, in my

  • view, an Overexercised supply chain and an

  • Overexercised Boeing factory, and we're going

  • to calm it down. We're going to get ahead of all

  • of the issues that either the FAA and way more

  • importantly, our own people bring to our

  • attention, and we'll get ahead of it.

  • That will happen.

Five years ago, 346 people were killed in two plane

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Why The Boeing 737 Max Has Been Such A Mess

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    EvenBEIter に公開 2024 年 04 月 04 日
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