Name: コロナウイルスのチャートがいかに私たちを誤解させるか (How coronavirus charts can mislead us)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T11:21:14.000Z
Duration: 4 min 58 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

You may have seen this chart since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

In one image, it appears to capture the state of each nation's battle

But like all data visualizations, its design  tends to emphasize some things and hides others.

So here are 4 things we need to know to understand this chart.

First, this is not a chart of all coronavirus cases.

That means each line doesn't just reflect the state of the outbreak in a country, but

also how aggressively that country is testing people for the virus.

Take a look at Japan and South Korea earlier in the pandemic.

Japan's outbreak looked pretty small in comparison.

But the available data on testing shows us that South Korea had tested vastly more people

than Japan did, even though their population is less than half as big.

And now, as Japan slowly increases their testing, the outbreak there looks more worrying.

It's a good reminder that we can't understand case data

without some sense of the testing levels.

And that's especially true for lower-income countries

where we know their testing capacity is limited.

The second thing to know is that the scale for the y-axis on this chart

On a typical linear scale, you divide the space by adding the same value over and over.

The log scale is made by multiplying a value, in this case, ten.

100 times 10 is 1000, times 10 is 10,000, times 10 is 100,000.

That means that there's no fixed amount of space on this chart

So the first 100,000 cases take up this much space

and then the next 100,000 cases get just this much.

The higher the numbers, the more visibly squished they become on a log scale.

Well, let's take the 5 countries with the largest outbreaks right now, and rewind them

On a linear scale, it looked like things were pretty bad in Italy

The log scale offered a much clearer warning:

we were all on the same path of exponential growth.

It's the nature of infectious disease that numbers get big fast.

So it makes sense for numbers to get big fast on the chart too.

Fast forward a few weeks and the linear scale shows cases climbing and climbing

while the log chart shows curves that are flattening.

As governments have implemented lockdowns and social distancing, the virus is spreading

at a slower rate than before, which isn't very visible on the linear scale.

But keep in mind that the difference between this dot and this dot

And the log chart tends to downplay just how many more confirmed cases there are in the

Which brings us to the third thing to know

about our chart: it doesn't account for population size.

When you adjust for population, really small countries like Iceland and Luxembourg  appear

to have the biggest outbreaks for their size, which may reflect higher testing rates.

The US and China have much bigger populations so their curves drop a bit.

But the size of a country doesn't really affect the growth rate of its cases, and it

doesn't tell us much about how much the country is struggling.

It just pushes smaller countries up on the chart and tends to hide the fact that the

outbreak is especially bad in certain regions of bigger countries,

And the last thing to know about our chart is that the x-axis doesn't plot time by

the date,  but by the number of days since the country

When they're all layered on top of each other, it allows us to compare the trajectory

of the outbreaks, but it tends to obscure the fact that the

pandemic hit some countries before it hit others.

The world watched as tens of thousands of cases appeared in China.

Then big outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, sent a message about what was to come.

Two weeks after South Korea reported its 100th case, the United States' did the same.

In a situation where actions taken early can have a much bigger impact than actions taken

later, time is a crucial factor. and we have to remember that some governments had more

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コロナウイルスのチャートがいかに私たちを誤解させるか (How coronavirus charts can mislead us)

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