ButthiswouldbethelocalPublicHealthAssociationofMinnesotabefore I introduceourpanel.
Justwantedtogiveyou a littlebitof a fewsecondsofbackgroundonwhatwillbetalkingabouttoday.
The 1918 pandemicflupandemic, whichwentfromJanuary 1918 toDecemberof 1920 wasanunusuallydeadlyinfluenzapandemicinvolvingthe H one n oneinfluenceofiris, whichwe'reallawareof.
Itinfected 500 millionpeoplearoundtheworldandresultedinthedeathsof 50 to 100 millionor 3 to 5% oftheworld's population, makingitoneofthedeadliestnaturaldisastersinhumanhistory.
Hometomyrightisourregion's ProfessorMcKnight, PresidentialEndowedChairinPublicHealth, ThedirectoroftheCenterforInfectiousDiseaseResearchandPolicy, a distinguishedteachingprofessorinthedivisionofEnvironmentalHealthSciencesSchoolofPublicHealth, a professorintheTechnologicalLeadershipInstituteCollegeofScienceandEngineeringandtheagentprofessorinthemedicalschool, allattheUniversityofMinnesota.
Heistheauthorofthe 2017 bookDeadliestEnemy.
OurWarAgainstKillerGerms, inwhichhenotonlydetailsthemostpressinginfectiousdiseaseThreatsofourdaybelievesout a ninepointstrategyandhowbesttoaddressthemwithpreventing a globalflupandemic.
Soinfrontofme, I have a Grey's AnatomythatbelongedtotheseconddirectoroftheMinnesotaDepartmentofHealth, HennyBracket, andtotheright, I havesomeartifactsfromourcollection.
Infront, you'llsee a mapthatwas a SaintPaulmapofinfluenzabytheCitizensCommittee.
GuilfordorderedallMinneapolisschools, churches, theaters, dancehalls, a 1,000,000,000 pyre, Alors, tobeclosed, saying, I donotwanttobealarmistbutdiseasesnotcontrollablebyordinarymeasures.
Thesamepollcouncildidnotfollowsuitbutdidissueanemergencyorinregulatingthebusinesshoursofstoriesandtheaterstokeepstreetcarcongestionto a minimum, andeventuallytheyclosedtheirpublicplaces.
OnNovember 6, Samplealsohad a citizen's committee, 15 physicians, churchleadersandcommunitymemberswhowererecommendingpolicychanges.
Othermeasuresofcontainmentwe'resuspendingchurchserviceisaskingpeoplewhosenameswereair L togotothenine o'clockserviceanddizzytogotothe 10 o'clockserviceandinsaloons.
So a compromisewasreached, allowingstreetcarswithheatingandventilationsystemstoclosetheirwindowsoncethetemperaturedroppedto 30 teary 32 degreesFahrenheit.
ST.
Paultargetedelevatorsis a placewhereinfluenzacouldeasilybetransmitted.
Butinterestingly, itshowsthatitcaused a reductioninhumancapitalforindividualswhowereinuteroduringthepandemicandthathadeconomicimplicationsfordecadesafterthepandemic.
There's lotsoflessonstobelearnedfromthepandemic, recognizingthatthere's a lotofdifferencesbetweennowand 1918.
Just, forexample, there's a differentunderstandingofprivacy, civilandconstitutionalrightsastheyrelatetopublichealth.
Wehave a 1918 eventbecausehistorysurelyshowsthatthatcouldhappennowintermsofWasthis a morelethalvirusnormduringnormalseasonalfluyears, wherewehavedifferentstrainsofseasonalfluvirus?
Which, bytheway, istheresidualstrainsof a previouspandemicthathungaroundinpeople.
Andsowe'reseeingmixingandand a movementofinfluenzavirusesandbirdstoday, thisunprecedentedabsolutelypresident, andthisiswonderingwhywe'resoconcernedaboutthefutureforpandemicinfluenza.
Emergingagainsoonisbecauseofthat.
I mean, imagineintheolddays, youknow, thefoodvirusmayhavehadonethrowenergeticroulettetableeverymonth.
Andsoyouknow, wehavetobepreparedagainbecausethisanimalhumaninterpracticesmovingtheseviruses a lotisthatwhentheDepartmentofHealthMinnesotahastheprogramCockledoodledowashyourhands?
Sotoday, thepotentialforthesethingstotakeoffquicklyIsraelandallwe'reworriedaboutiswhenisthenexttimethatoneofthesevirusesgoingtosuccessfullynotjustmakeitto a human.
Andinoneofthethingswe'relearningabout, Firstofall, letme I shouldhavegiven a disclosuretothisgroupbefore I startedsothatyouknowthatanyconflictsofinterest I have I know a hellof a lotlessaboutflewtodaythan I did 10 yearsago.
And s o takeanything I saytodaywithgreatassault.
Necessarily.
We'velearnedsomuchnewinformationabouttwinsinthelast 10 years, andoneofthingswe'velearnedisisthatbyfarthemosteffectivetransmissionmaynotbewhatweoncethought.
Surfacesprobablyplay a verylimited, ifanyroleatall.
Yetwetalkedabouthandwashingsurfacesdropletswhichwethoughtweretheprimarymodeoftransmission, whicharethosebigbouldersweblowoutthatactuallygonofurtherthan 4 to 5 feetwerethoughttobetheprimaryway.
Nowwehaveverygooddatashowingthataerosolsthethingsthatjustmetalkingupherethatmayfillthisentireroomin a matterofminutes.
Ifyouwantunderstandingaerosolnexttimeyougoto a majordepartmentstoreandyourfouraislesawayfromtheperfumedepartmentstillsmelltheperfumethat's inArizona.
Andsoweactuallythinkthatthathas a verykeyroleintransmission, whichmeansthenjustbeinganywhereinpublicisgoingtofacilitatethetransmission.
Wemovedsomanythings, sosojustit's not a surprisingthatthatwhenitemergedoutofKansasorwhereveritreallystartedfrom, itwaswithintheUnitedStatesandalmost a month, moststateshadnowisyouknow, it's verynicelylaidoutwhereithaditsmaximalimpactvariedinsomecasesbyuptoseveralmonthsandseveralways.
Therewas a waveclearlyintheearlyspringof 18 thatwasactually a muchmilderillness.
No, I thinkit's been a reallygoodjob, and I thinkthiswas a veryimportantmessageforlessonslearnedfortodaywelivein a verydifferentworldtoday, sowecan't gobackandsaywhathappenedin 1918 willbewhatwillhappentoday.
But a browncommunication.
It's nodifferenttodaythanitwasin 1918 and I thinkyou'reverypoignantstoriesofwhathappenedbetweenjustMinneapolisandSTPaul.
Andifthere's anyonethingthat's gonnahavetohappeniswe'regonnalosepublictrustveryquicklywhenyouhave a crisislikethis, youknow, ifunearthquakehappens, a tsunamihappens.
Itturnsoutthatwhenyoulookatthemodernworldweliveintoday, wehave a largesegmentofourpopulationisbeingkeptalivetoday, a numberofverycriticaldrugsthattheyneedeverydayandsummerymanwhocompromise.
Somehavecardiacdisease.
Somehaveanynumberofdifferentconditions.
Andwedid a studyseveralyearsagowherewesurveyed a worldwiderenowngroupofFarm D's andwesaid, Whatarethosedrugsyouhavetohaveeverydayorpeopledie?
Andso I thinkpeopletounderstandthateventhoughweliveinthismodernmedicalsocietyworld, it's a verydifferentworldtodayfromvulnerabilitystandpoint, itwas 1918 peoplewerekeptaliveonthesedrugs.
No, this, Youknow, I wrotemyfirstarticlein 2003 andwhyweneeded a universeorgamechangingfluvaccinebecausethecurrentvaccineswereinadequatein 2000 andLoveinourgrouppublishedthefirstseminalpaperonshowinghowineffectiveourcurrentfluvaccinesareandthatthathasbeen a deterrenttogettingnewandbetterfluvaccines, causewegrosslyoverstatedhoweffectivetheywere.
Andfinally, thisyeartherehasbeen a realattentionpaidtoWedoneeddoingbetterfluvaccines.
And I thinkthat, youknow, in 1983 I gotinto a littlebitoftrouble.
WhichthosethattheHealthDepartmentNo, it's notunusual, I wasquotedNewYorkTimesthedayafterSecretaryMargaretHecklerfromHHSandBobGallocodiscovertheAIDSvirus, had a pressconferenceandsaid, Nowthatwe'vediscoveredthisvirus, we'regonnahave a vaccineinthreeyears, and I'm quotingthatarticlesaying, Hell, we'renotgonnahave a vaccineinmylifetimeforAIDS.
Andforallthereasonswhy I laidout.
Butwhat I knowaboutretrovirusesandofcoursebackthenthatwasbadnews.
Howcouldyousaythat?
Well, here I sitin 2018 andwe'renotanycloser, ineffectiveAIDSvaccinetoday, despitespending a $1,000,000,000 a yearforthelasteightyearsandflewoninfluenceonHIVvaccineresearch.
Saywemayverywellbeabletomake a universalfluvaccine, onethatyoucouldgiveonceevery 10 to 20 yearsbecausewecangouppartsofthevirusthatactuallyprotectsyouagainstmultiplestrainsandfor a longdurationoftimeandtheproblemsWejustneverdidit.
Wedidn't have a Manhattanprojectwherewebasicallycrasheditmuchlikeevenwe'redoingwitheightwithAIDSvaccinestoday.
So I'm verypleasedthatthat's finallygottenattention.
Lastweek, thepresidentsignedlegislationthatactuallyappropriate $100 million I agedfastforwarduniversalfluvaccineworknowthat's surely a pittanceoftheamountthatweneed, anditwilltake a while.
Butwe'reforthefirsttime C net, and I actuallyenvision I mean, thisisnotpipedreams.
Wecouldvaccinatetheworldonedaylikewedidforsmallpoxandactuallyprotecttheworldagainst a flupandemicfromeveremergingandhave a majorimpactonseasonalflueveryyearwiththevaccinethatmayonlybegivenonceevery 10 to 20 years.
Itwouldrivalsurelysmallpoxandanythingwedid, I actuallythat's possible.
He's justnotgonnahappentoday, and I'd liketogivethis a littlebitof a positivespinintermsofwherewe'reatbeingpreparedtorespondto a situation.
Certainlytherethere's a reasonthattheycausingdisastersandalloftheplanningthatwedowhatmake a disaster.
Golway.
Butwehavehad a lotmore, Um, whenLoiswastalkingaboutsortoflackofcoordinationbetweengovernmentandtwoteasandthings, I wouldn't saythatwe'vereachedNirvana, butwehavecertainlyhad a lotmorecommunication, a lotmoreplanning.
Andso I thinkwe'rein a betterplacewiththat.
Thenwewerein 1918.
Um, when I Well, I was, I guess, atthehealthfor a fewyears.
Wehavesentinelsitesandwe'redoingsurveillanceyearroundforinfluenzaSaul, thoughyouhearaboutitfromOctobertomake a kindofthepeakfluseason, we'reconstantlymonitoringwhat's happening.
So, um, we'vecome a longway, butwehave a waytogo.
And I thinkoneofthethingsthat's importanttokeepinmindisthatwhenyouwhenyouinvestinpublichealthand I'llsaythisbecausewearespeakinghereinthestateofficebuilding.
If I couldjustadd a piecethatcould, I thinkChrisisabsolutelyright, and I thinkwe'velearned a lotsince 9 11 abouthowtoimplementtheincidentcommandapproach, howtobringtogetherorganizations, and I thinkin a verylimitedevent, butyouhad a verycriticallyevent.
ThebridgecollapseinMinneapoliswasanexampleofwhereallthattrainingandandactivityplayedoffbecauseitwas a highlycoordinated, verywelldoneresponsetothat.
Thechallengewithfluthatnoneofusarereallycomfortablewithpreparedforreallytakes a pageoutofthemilitary.
Thatis, whenyou'reinwar.
Ifyourlieutenantgetshotandkilled, yoursergeantbecomes a lieutenant.
And I thinkthatthat's gonnabethebiggestchallengethatcomesbacktoLois's earlierpointaboutcommunicationandwho's incharge?
Howaretheyincharge?
Andsowhenwedotabletopexerciseswithorganizations, theonething I lovetodothatonepartofthetabletopwesuddenlytakemanyoftheseniorleadershippeopleandwetellyournodeadyou'renodead.
We'vegotissueswithourcurrentvaccine, butwe'rewe're a lotfartheralongintermsofourunderstandingofthevirus, intermsofourunderstandingandpublichealth.
I mean, I I certainlydon't wanttobethepersonthat's deadinthenextpandemic, but I dohavegreatconfidenceinthestaffthatwehaveatthehealthdepartment.
Wehave a reallygreatteam.
Thatdefinitelygoesbeyondjustsomeoftheleadership.
So I havereasontobeoptimistic.
But I stilldreadthethoughtof a pandemicthatcouldinperspectivetothat.
Weaskedabouttechnology.
I mean, itreallyisvaccinevaccinevaccinevaccine, andyettoday, on a globalbasis, wecouldprobablyprovideevenineffectivevaccinebythesecondwaveofthepandemictolessthan 2% oftheworld's population.
Whenyoulivein a globaljustintimeeconomy, Thatmeanstheimplicationswefeltworldwidebecausethevastmajoritytheworldwillneverhaveaccesstofluvaccine.
Evenifwehave.
Andevenifwehave, itwouldn't get.
Hereiswearegroupdemonstratedin a reportthatwedid, Umbythetimewegotthefluvaccinein 2000 andnine, thepeakofthesecondwave, thekeywavehadalreadyweighingtothepointofwherewayhadlimitedvirtuallyalmostnoimpactonthe 2009 pandemic.
Fluvaccinewastoolate, toolate, andifwecouldincrementallygetthat a littlebetter, thatwouldhelp.
Andso I thinkthatoneofthingswehavetorealizeispandemics.
Theworldwideeventnumbertwo.
Wearevictimsof a worldwideeventwhenthecriticalproductsandserviceisthatweneedcan't bedeliveredandwehavebecomeoutsourcedsomuch I meansomethingjumpingissimplyyetiscriticalisthedrugs I meantodayif I weretosharewithyou, which I can't, butthenumberofareaswereconcernedaboutinthemilitary.