Name: ダウ平均、S&P500、DAX30の今週の見通し (Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecasts for the Week Ahead)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:34:41.000Z
Duration: 29 min 8 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

My name is Peter Hanks, junior analyst for daily effects dot com.

Today we're going to be going through some equity index analysis.

This will probably be one of the more interesting ah webinars we've had in the past few months just because there's so many unknowns and the S and P 500 has dropped about 8% in the last four days.

We are up around 1% today, but ah, I would say the recovery is tenuous at best.

So let's dive right in beginning with a quick risk disclaimer.

And then we'll look at some data and talk about some of the unknowns that we still to face a Vernon.

Four hours of the S and P 500 appear around 3400 nearly ah, on February 18th just establishing all time highs.

Virus fears were still very much nothing at this point.

We saw breakdowns and crude oil, copper, The Australian dollar risk and growth sensitive assets were generally selling off.

And we actually talked about that just last week the same time and ah, I outlined my bearish cases and essentially said, um, the reason we're going higher is maybe the central banks, maybe Fauria or just a detachment from fundamentals.

But eventually the chickens have to come home to roost and that they did this week, starting Monday, with some staggering gaps.

Let me read off the stats for you here from another slide.

I have eso for the NASDAQ, it was the largest gapped lower since August 24th 2015 for the S and P 500.

It was the worst opening gap since August 1981.

And for the Dow Jones, it was the worst since 1991.

So we have some gaps in there that haven't been seen in 30 almost 40 years.

Um, which is really remarkable just to just goes to show how quickly risk appetite can really unwind.

And these months of gains going back to really October, December now ah, just gradually melting higher were erased in just four sessions, and that is why stops are so important in your trading strategy.

It's also why it's very important just to keep an eye on the fundamentals And really ask yourself what is fueling all of this.

And, um, it didn't seem like much was feeling it.

So now let's look forward again and try to ascertain if this is all we're going to see or if further declines Aaron store.

This is from Jon Huntsman, and the data is from Johns Hopkins.

Ah, he is a pretty trusted source, but it is not.

So, um, I haven't been able Thio check it myself.

Ah, talking about the virus here in the blue line, we have the daily percentage increase in total reported cases.

So this line showing that China is gradually seeing a slowdown in the spread take that with a grain of salt because their numbers are so, um, unverifiable.

Guess for lack of a better term and ah, and then in the red line, we have other locations.

So the slowdown in China is not being met in other countries as we have some pretty serious outbreaks now in Italy, South Korea Japan.

Um, Italy is closing off some more borders this morning, and I think there are where there was the first confirmed case in Brazil late last night, and now there are suspected 20 to 25 people that might test positive for the virus.

So it is certainly not finished spreading.

And whether that was what sparked the sell off or whether it was just investors finally realizing that this is materially going to impact their supply chains, we don't know for sure.

But if we do start to get a spread into the United States into Germany into these other developed economies, ah, which the CDC said earlier this week was completely possible and actually likely.

So there is definitely some cause for concern this virus is going to continue to spread and not only will that take a toll on lives, but from an economic standpoint, it's almost going to leave no supply chain, um, un disrupted so that could be very concerning.

And it could really grind everything to a halt.

We already looked at this chart last week, just the D.

H l Global trade barometer showing the slowdown in trade.

I'm gonna keep an eye out for updates on this.

But, um, once we do get data that has had the time to be recorded during the viral outbreak, I suspect it's going to be pretty terrible.

And, um, that might come to bite us down the line.

If everything has been baked into the current price because it's incredibly difficult to it's, it's just there are so few precedents.

Um, I mean, you have SARS 20 years ago, And other than that, global viral outbreaks are just so few and far between, especially during the time of developing markets and exchanges and things like that.

So with the trade war and issues like that, you have the amount of goods going between the nations.

You know, the type of goods you have, the percentage that they're going to be taxed at.

And you can kind of back into what that is going to do to prices, what it's going to do to economic growth.

But with something like this Corona virus, there's just No, you don't have that certainty in the information, so that is going to continue to provide uncertainty over the markets.

And if there's one thing investors hate most, it is uncertainty.

Combine that with the election and Bernie Sanders looking to take the lead on the Democratic side.

Ah, that could create some further wobbles there, as many investors believe, his policies will not be very business friendly.

Here's a chart we didn't take a look at last week.

This is from Bloomberg and the CPB World Trade Monitor.

It's showing that for the first time in a decade, trade declined in 2019.

I think it's safe to say that was entirely due to the U.

S China trade war in some other bubbling trade wars in there if it declined in 2019 and 2020 started off with an immediate outbreak and some hits to you.

Various supply chains, I suspect, is going to be, ah, quite poor in here to come as well.

This is also going to be very important to keep an eye on in the weeks to come.

I assume manufacturing and Isom service is I.

Some service is actually slipping down into contractionary territory.

Manufacturing was able to pull out a little bit, but it's still not off the cliff edge.

And much of this data, I would say probably half in the month of January was pre virus.

And that was really before it started to gain momentum and, um, leak into other countries.

So we're looking at, uh, a string of pretty poor data coming out here now, since there is so much unknown on the fundamental side, I think taking a look at the technical side is probably the best thing we can do here because trying to back into these values is just not ah, really verifiable.

I had an article out on this yesterday outlining the 200 days Simple moving average.

These people from I G always like to go on the air when I do.

Ah and an ascending trendline bouncing off the tops of these various highs and lows here in November and December.

I'll line that around 30 92 give or take a few points.

And this morning pre market, we got about as perfect of a touch as you could ask for.

Um, just coming down to that line 30 92 30 95.

Somewhere in there very quickly got a pretty strong bounce.

And back above this trend line that was marked from the December lows and 2018.

So we thankfully, have to pretty strong levels of support here.

It seems like this kind of around 31 30 31 35 in the days and hours to come and then 30 92 which is unbroken, unlike this trend line.

Um, so we do have some pretty robust assistance there.

And if selling does pick up again, that's when we'll look to the flat 3000 mark psychological level.

And that would equate to another four ish percent drop four and 1/2 percent drop from where we are now.

But as we've seen, we shed 6% in just two days.

So, uh, 4% at this stage is really not too much to ask.

Looking at the NASDAQ, we really quickly blew through Mrs Sending trendline and the 200 period moving average on the floor.

Our try here, it did provide a little bit of assistance, but the wheels just came off the bus and, um, the NASDAQ capped 4% lower on Monday.

So, um was a hundreds of points in a single tick is really effective at taking out support, which left us kind of grasping there on Tuesday.

I didn't have anything in this area, and it doesn't look like there was ah, really strong level in here.

Um, maybe somewhere around these lows, you could argue.

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ダウ平均、S&P500、DAX30の今週の見通し (Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 Forecasts for the Week Ahead)

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