Name: バーニー・サンダース前座ウィスコンシン民主党第一次世論調査エマーソン2019年3月号 (Bernie Sanders Frontrunner Wisconsin Democratic Primary Poll Emerson March 2019)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:34:21.000Z
Duration: 6 min 13 s
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程度の副詞

in today's video gonna be going over Another poll that just came out recently, this one from Emerson College, and they focused in on the all important state of Wisconsin, which is a key battleground for 2020.

If you're Bernie Sanders supporter, you're gonna really like the results that came out of this particular poll in terms of that 2020 Democratic primary.

And then they also went on to do head to head matchups against the Democratic hopefuls and Donald Trump before going through this particular Emerson College poll.

I just want to go over some numbers from Wisconsin that we got back in 2016 just to show you how important this state is.

I'm gonna start with the primary numbers in 2016.

He actually got the most votes out of any candidate on the Democratic or Republican side.

We go and take a look at the state of Wisconsin.

He won every single county other than Milwaukee, but even Milwaukee was extremely close to where he was within on Lee about three or so percentage point.

So Bernie performing better than any other candidate here.

Back in 2016 on the Republican side, Donald Trump, you can see that there wasn't an overwhelming appetite for Trump in comparison to Ted Cruz, who actually did quite a bit better than Trump by 13% points, their crews coming in first to add a little over half a 1,000,000 votes off his own.

But just based on these 2016 primary numbers, if you would forecast a 2020 matchup between Sanders and Trump, you could see that there could potentially be, Ah, bit more support on Sander side than Trump if we're just looking at the numbers that we have here from 2016.

But then we go into that 2016 general election, of course.

Hillary Clinton coming up shore, getting 232 electoral votes to Trump's 306 And she lost because she fell in key Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and then a little bit outside the Midwest but also a similar demographic.

They're in Pennsylvania, off these three states.

I think Michigan and Pennsylvania are a little bit easier to get than Wisconsin.

That's why this is such an important state because If the Democrats do grab Michigan and Pennsylvania but still lose Wisconsin, they could still end up losing the Electoral College to Donald Trump.

So winning that state of Wisconsin is extremely important now.

If they didn't win Wisconsin, there's still potential pathways for them.

If they were to pick up Iowa, Arizona, North Carolina or Florida, those are other potential pathways.

But I think Wisconsin is the clearest path forward for the Democrats.

If they're gonna try to get that 270 electoral votes to get them the presidency now going back to this Emerson Pole going down off the 2020 Democratic primary field, you can see Bernie Sanders did tremendously well here.

And it shouldn't be too much of a surprise in Wisconsin, considering how significantly well he did in comparison to Clinton back in 2016.

Also, the fact that Clinton came up short in her head to head against Donald Trump there in the state of Wisconsin, there's clearly an appetite in this state for progressive populism behind Sanders.

Joe Biden coming in at second place with 24% Elizabeth Warren doing respectably well for herself at 14% points and then the rest of the field not doing all that great over or get six.

Amy Klobuchar at four, which is actually pretty devastating for her.

You hear a lot of this punditry on the mainstream media, where they're saying that Amy Klobuchar is a great potential candidate for the Democrats because she could do very well in the Midwest.

She's obviously the senator from Minnesota, where she actually did quite well in her reelection bid.

But the fact that she's only getting 4% in the neighboring state of Wisconsin is not a great sign for her and then have Cory Booker at 2% points.

Andrew Gang at one Pete Buddha, judge at one, Kirsten Gillibrand at one, and then all the other candidates are at 0% point.

So then we move down and taking a look at the support of each candidate.

It's actually really interesting just taking a look at the three top candidates.

So Joe Biden he only has 2% of his support, coming from voters between the age of 18 to 29 and then 18% between 30 to 49.

But then he has overwhelming amounts of his support coming from voters that are over the age of 50.

You contrast that to Sanders and Warren, where it's a very different story.

You can see Bernie as well as Elizabeth Warren.

Most of their support is coming from those voters that are under the age of 50 in contrast to voters that are over the age of 50.

So there's a clear divide here within that Democratic coalition in the age demographics in comparison to the more centrist corporate type candidate like Joe Biden in comparison to the more progressive style candidates in Sanders and Warren.

So now moving down off these Wisconsin voters, they're asking what directions to the Democratic Party move and you can see they want the party to go left significantly left at 24% points, slightly left at 31% points, stay where it is at 30 and then going more to the right does not pull as well, just at 16% points combined between slightly to the right and, more significantly, to the right.

So now going down and taking a look at the head to head matchups between Trump and these Democratic hopefuls and actually the best performer here is Joe Biden, even though he's coming up short in the Democratic primary field.

Once you go to the general election, he's actually doing quite well at 54% points compared to Trump at 46.

And then we have Warren and Sanders both at the same numbers, 52 to 48 then the other candidates not doing quite as well.

Camilla Harris at a 50 50 tie, Beto O'Rourke up by 2% points and then another again, very bad sign for Amy Klobuchar.

The fact that in this particular Emerson polls she's at a 50 50 tie with Donald Trump in a part of the country where she's supposed to be doing ah, bit better again is just not a great sign for her.

So that's gonna wrap up this poll in all the numbers that I wanted to go over again, taking a look at that 2020 Democratic primary where there's three candidates that really have separated themselves from the rest of the pack.

In this particular poll, I'd like to Seymour out of the state of Wisconsin, but it doesn't surprise me that Bernie is doing so well in a state that he did very well.

And back in 2016 he's trying to carry that momentum over into 2020.

So thanks, guys, for stopping on in Subscribed for more and up.

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バーニー・サンダース前座ウィスコンシン民主党第一次世論調査エマーソン2019年3月号 (Bernie Sanders Frontrunner Wisconsin Democratic Primary Poll Emerson March 2019)

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