It’s important enough that I thought I would wear a tie.

This cycle will be consumed by the presidential race, but don’t forget about the fight for

Congress.

In the Senate, Republicans picked up a couple seats in 2018.

But Democrats held their losses to a minimum in the face of a challenging map, keeping

a majority within reach in 2020.

First of all, we need to be precise about how we talk about the fight for the Senate

because the number of seats Democrats need to control the Senate depends on the outcome

of the presidential race.

Democrats need to gain 4 seats for a majority, but a gain of 3 seats would be enough for

control of the Senate if there is a new Democratic vice president to break a 50-50 tie.

The 2020 Senate map is a stark contrast to 2018.

In 2018, Democrats defended 26 Senate seats while Republican defended just 9.

In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 seats while Democrats defend 12.

More targets should be good for the party trying to recapture the majority.

But 2016 was the first time in history that all of the senate results matched the presidential

outcome.

A similar dynamic (and presidential result) in 2020 would produce no net gain for Democrats

because they would lose Alabama and Michigan while winning Colorado and Maine.

Using the 2012 presidential results as a guide for the 2020 Senate map, Democrats would gain

two Senate seats.

If the 2008 presidential results applied, Democrats would gain three seats.

The initial list of vulnerable senators is fairly short.

Just two Democrats are up for re-election in Trump states: Doug Jones and Gary Peters.

And two Republicans up for re-election in Clinton states: Cory Gardner and Susan Collins.

But Republicans Martha McSally, Thom Tillis, David Perdue, and Joni Ernst should have competitive

races and Democrats Tina Smith and Jeanne Shaheen could have competitive races as well.

Overall, the presidential race will impact the fight for the Senate in multiple ways.

Eight races will take place in competitive presidential states.

There are at least two races with incumbent senators contemplating running for president

(New Jersey and Oregon), and two states with a potential Senate candidate considering running

for president first (Montana, Colorado).

Of course it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like, how voters

will feel about the economy and direction of the country, and whether they’ll believe

more Democrats are needed in Washington.

And it’s too early to determine the final scope and size of the Senate playing field,

which will be partially determined by retirements, recruitment, primaries, and how the presidential

race plays out.

Based on the initial map, Republicans should be viewed as slight favorites to maintain

control, but we’ve got a long way to go, and the margin is close enough that the majority

should be regarded as in-play.