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00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:07,770 There's a big debate raging across Wall Street
about the future of the US dollar.
Is it finally set to weaken versus its peers?
Or will it continue to strengthen in the coming year?
Here's a chart of the US trade-weighted dollar.
Now this tracks the dollar's value versus the currency
of major US trading partners.
As you can see here, it has strengthened considerably
versus its peers since the beginning of 2018.
And it now sits at its highest level in about two decades.
It's a surprising move for a few reasons.
And the trend looks set to continue,
much to the chagrin of President Donald Trump, who
has consistently railed against the economic impact
of a strong US dollar.
Now the first reason has to do with the Federal Reserve.
So, a big component as to why the dollar strengthened so much
versus its peers in 2018 has to do with the fact
that the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates,
while other central banks around the rest of the world
were keeping their already low rates low,
or moving them even lower than that level.
What changed was in January, when
the Fed made a sharp U-turn in the path
of its monetary policy.
Six weeks prior we had raised rates
for the fourth time in 2018.
And in January it said it was actually
going to consider cutting interest rates in the face
of softening US economic data.
And in July, it instituted the first of three 25 basis point
cuts to its benchmark policy rate.
It moved in July.
It moved once again in September.
And then it moved once again in October.
The only effect the Fed's U-turn had on the dollar
was for it to strengthen versus its peers.
And this was because the likes of the European Central Bank,
the Bank of Japan, were rolling out very aggressive stimulus
packages and cutting interest rates.
And so that interest rate differential
that helped to explain the strengthening of the US
dollar versus its peers during 2018 persisted well into 2019.
And it looks like it's set to persist again in 2020,
given the fact that the Fed has recently
said that it's going to put a stop to any additional easing
for the time being until it sees bigger deterioration
in the economic data.
And now that brings us to our second reason.
Relative economic growth.
Back in 2017, President Trump unveiled
a series of tax cuts aimed at turbocharging the US expansion.
That helped to buoy the dollar to some degree,
but economists warned that the effects of those tax cuts
would be short-lived, helping to build the case for a weaker
dollar.
But that hasn't happened, as you can see in this chart,
given the fact that growth around the rest of the world
was pretty lacklustre at best.
In China, for instance, the growth rate
slowed dramatically, despite a series of stimulus measures put
in place over recent months.
And in Europe's largest economy, Germany,
it was on the brink of recession.
And so, when you had US growth outpacing
that of the rest of the world, it
helps to shore up the dollar versus those other currencies.
And then there's the ongoing US-China trade war.
The US dollar plays a very important role
in the global financial system.
It serves as a safe haven asset for investors who flock
to it during times of turmoil.
And that's very much been the case
as the trade war between the US and China
has escalated over the past 12 months.
Now, recent headlines have pointed
to some more positive developments on this front.
But in the last week, things have taken a turn a bit
for the worse.
For instance, President Trump recently
said that he would be willing to wait
until after the presidential election
next year to strike any kind of preliminary deal with China.
Within the same week, he also raised tariffs
on France, Argentina, and Brazil.
So these trade tensions that have helped to buoy the dollar
haven't gone away.
So taking this all together, the trend
that has dominated since 2018 of a strong dollar
looks set to persist for some time, at least.
What it would take to reverse the dollar's fortunes
would be a sizable progress on the US-China trade front,
as well as a shoring up of growth globally.
And that looks to be a tall order.
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Why the strong US dollar trend may persist Charts that Count

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洪子雯 2019 年 12 月 10 日 に公開

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