CHINA TAKING OVER TAIWAN, BUT,

IN A SENSE, COULD THE REVERSE BE

TRUE?

WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE

POSSIBILITIES NEXT ON

"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."

>> THIS PROGRAM IS MADE POSSIBLE

IN PART BY FUNDING FROM...

>> THIS IS

"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," WITH

PULITZER PRIZE-WINNING

COMMENTATOR JOHN BERSIA.

>> WELCOME TO

"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."

WILL TAIWAN BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN

ITS NUANCED BUT SELF-GOVERNING

STATUS IN THE FACE OF RISING

CHINESE NATIONALISM?

IN AN INTERVIEW ON THIS PROGRAM,

CHINESE SCHOLAR LU XIANG

DOWNPLAYED HIS COUNTRY'S

TERRITORIAL DISPUTES.

>> ONLY THIS SMALL QUESTION --

SMALL PROBLEMS WITH CHINA.

WE WANT TO SETTLE THAT IN MAYBE

10 OR 20 YEARS.

>> TODAY'S GUEST,

DAVIDSON COLLEGE

POLITICAL-SCIENCE PROFESSOR

SHELLEY RIGGER, IS AN EXPERT ON

TAIWANESE AND CHINESE POLITICS

AND UNIQUELY SUITED TO HELP US

PARSE THE ISLAND'S FUTURE.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW, SHELLEY.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> TELL US ABOUT NATIONALISM IN

CHINA.

WE HEAR ABOUT IT, WE READ ABOUT

IT.

DO WE REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT'S

GOING ON AND WHAT THIS MAY MEAN

FOR THE FUTURE OF CHINA'S

RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS,

WITH THE U.S., AND SO FORTH?

>> THE REALLY TRICKY QUESTION, I

THINK, WITH -- WHEN WE'RE TRYING

TO THINK ABOUT CHINESE

NATIONALISM IS HOW MUCH OF IT

IS REALLY INNATE IN CHINESE

CITIZENS, AND TO WHAT EXTENT IS

NATIONALISM KIND OF ENCOURAGED

AND SPONSORED BY THE GOVERNMENT,

BY THE CHINESE STATE?

AND I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO

LOOK AT THESE ISSUES THINK THAT

THE STATE IS VERY RESPONSIBLE,

AND THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD

EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THINGS

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT DOES DO

ENCOURAGE NATIONALISTIC FEELING

ON THE PART OF CHINESE PEOPLE.

BUT, AT THE SAME TIME, WHETHER

FROM WITHIN OR BECAUSE OF THESE

MESSAGES THAT THEY'RE RECEIVING

FROM WITHOUT, CHINESE CITIZENS

HAVE BECOME GENUINELY

NATIONALISTIC.

AND, OF COURSE, CHINESE HAVE

ALWAYS BEEN PATRIOTIC AND CARE

DEEPLY ABOUT THE FUTURE AND FATE

OF THEIR SOCIETY AND THEIR

CIVILIZATION, BUT THIS KIND OF

POLITICAL NATIONALISM THAT

SOMETIMES FEELS A LITTLE BIT

ALMOST AGGRESSIVE TO THOSE ON

THE OUTSIDE -- THIS IS A

PHENOMENON THAT I THINK PEOPLE

ARE REALLY LOOKING AT WHEN THEY

TALK ABOUT NATIONALISM.

AND IT SEEMS TO BE ENCOURAGED BY

THE STATE, BUT ALSO EMBRACED BY

THE SOCIETY.

AND THAT, I THINK, IS WHY IT'S

SUCH A BIG ISSUE TODAY.

>> IS THIS INEVITABLY PART OF

THE STORY OF A RISING POWER, OR

DOES IT TEND TO BE?

>> I THINK IT IS TYPICAL OF

RISING POWERS THAT PEOPLE

LIVING WITHIN THEM AND ALSO

LEADERS IN THOSE COUNTRIES THINK

ABOUT, "WHAT IS OUR ROLE IN THE

WORLD?" AND "HOW IS OUR ROLE IN

THE WORLD CHANGING?"

BUT I THINK CHINA IS ALSO

PARTICULARLY INCLINED TO THIS

KIND OF THINKING, BECAUSE RECENT

CHINESE HISTORY HAS REALLY

TRAVELED FROM A POSITION OF --

NOT GLOBAL LEADERSHIP, BECAUSE

BACK IN THE 19th CENTURY AND

BEFORE, THERE WASN'T A REAL

GLOBAL CONSCIOUSNESS, BUT

CERTAINLY REGIONAL LEADERSHIP.

FOR CENTURIES, CHINA WAS THE

LEADER OF THE EAST ASIAN REGION,

AND THE DOMINANT CIVILIZATION

AND CULTURE WAS THE ONE THAT WAS

REALLY CENTERED ON THE HEARTLAND

OF TODAY'S CHINA, AND THEN

BETWEEN ABOUT 1850 AND 1950,

CHINA WENT INTO THIS DEEP

RETREAT FROM REGIONAL AND

INTERNATIONAL POWER AND FELL

INTO HARD TIMES DOMESTICALLY,

CAME UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE

OUTSIDE.

THERE WERE CIVIL WARS,

THERE WERE REBELLIONS, THERE

WERE FAMINES, THERE WERE EVERY

KIND OF CATASTROPHE, ENDING IN A

CIVIL WAR AND REVOLUTION THAT

GAVE RISE TO THE CHINA WE KNOW

TODAY.

SO I THINK THIS TRAJECTORY OF

GREATNESS TO NEAR-COLLAPSE AND

THEN THE PROMISE THAT CHINA

MIGHT BE RETURNING TO GREATNESS

AGAIN, OR, IN FACT, THAT IT IS

RETURNING AND, IN SOME WAYS, HAS

ALREADY ACHIEVED THE STATUS OF

A GREAT POWER -- THIS IS, I

THINK, A DRIVER OF A LOT OF THE

CONTEMPLATION AND CONSIDERATION

WITHIN CHINESE SOCIETY OF, "WHAT

IS CHINA'S APPROPRIATE ROLE?"

WHERE ARE WE GOING?" AND MAYBE

MOST IMPORTANTLY, "WHO NEEDS TO

MOVE ASIDE TO MAKE ROOM FOR A

RESURGENT CHINESE CIVILIZATION?"

>> HOW DOES THIS INCREASING

NATIONALISM MANIFEST ITSELF?

YOU HEAR ANECDOTES ABOUT PEOPLE

AT THE GRASSROOTS LEVEL WHO

SOMETIMES GET INTO TENSE

SITUATIONS WHEN THEY'RE VISITING

CHINA, ESPECIALLY IF THEY'RE

OUT AT NIGHT IN CLUBS AND THINGS

LIKE THAT.

AND THEN THERE SEEMS TO BE THIS

AGGRESSIVENESS -- OR SENSE OF

AGGRESSIVENESS, AS YOU TERMED

IT -- IN THE NATIONAL POSTURES

THAT THE COUNTRY TAKES FROM TIME

TO TIME.

>> I THINK THE MOST VISIBLE

MANIFESTATION OF CHINESE

NATIONALISM IS ACTUALLY IN

PUBLIC DISCOURSE, PRIMARILY ON

ELECTRONIC MEDIA.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S REALLY

INTERESTING ABOUT THE PEOPLE'S

REPUBLIC OF CHINA TODAY IS THAT

THE MEDIA IS VERY TIGHTLY

CONTROLLED, RIGHT?

ALL OF THE TELEVISION, YOU KNOW,

BROADCAST AND PRINT MEDIA, IS TO

SOME EXTENT OR ANOTHER EITHER

CONTROLLED OR VERY HEAVILY

INFLUENCED BY THE STATE.

AND THEN THERE IS ALSO SOCIAL

MEDIA WHERE ORDINARY CITIZENS

CAN PARTICIPATE AND CAN SAY

THEIR PIECE.

BUT WHAT WE FIND IS THAT EVEN IN

SOCIAL MEDIA, CERTAIN KINDS OF

TOPICS ARE CONSTRAINED AND

CERTAIN KINDS OF CONVERSATIONS

JUST DISAPPEAR FROM THE CHINESE

INTERNET OR FROM CHINA'S

EQUIVALENT OF TWITTER, WHICH IS

CALLED WEIBO, AND OTHERS DON'T.

OTHERS DON'T GET DELETED.

OTHERS DON'T DISAPPEAR.

NATIONALISTIC POSTS OR

NATIONALISTIC COMMENTARIES TEND

TO SURVIVE LONGER IN SOCIAL

MEDIA THAN THE SORT OF COUNTER

DISCOURSES.

AND EVEN IN THE OFFICIAL MEDIA,

THESE NATIONALISTIC VOICES TEND

TO BE AMPLIFIED, WHEREAS THOSE

WHO MIGHT SAY, "WELL, WHAT ABOUT

THIS?" YOU KNOW, CHALLENGING THE

NATIONALISTIC DISCOURSES, ARE

OFTEN SILENCED.

SO A BIG PLACE WHERE WE SEE IT

MANIFESTED EVERYDAY IS IN THE

CONVERSATION AMONG CHINESE IN

BOTH OFFICIAL AND NON-OFFICIAL

MEDIA AND THEN SOCIAL-MEDIA

OUTLETS.

THE OTHER PLACE WE SEE IT

EPISODICALLY IS IN THE STREETS.

SO WHEN THERE'S AN INCIDENT THAT

EVOKES NATIONALISTIC FERVOR

AMONG GROUPS OF CHINESE

CITIZENS, THEN WE SEE

DEMONSTRATIONS OR, YOU KNOW,

PEOPLE KIND OF EXPRESSING THEIR

DISSATISFACTION ABOUT SOMETHING.

>> HOW HAS THIS DEVELOPMENT

AFFECTED TAIWAN?

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE

CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONSHIP, IT

WAS ENDLESS CONTENTIOUSNESS.

AND THEN, IN RECENT DECADES,

LARGELY BECAUSE OF CHINA'S

ECONOMIC REFORMS, THERE'S A LOT

MORE IN THE AREA OF OVERLAPPING

INTEREST.

AND WE'VE HAD A FAIRLY STABLE

RELATIONSHIP IN THE LAST

HALF-DECADE.

IS THE NATIONALISM ISSUE A

PROBLEM, A CONCERN, OR IS IT

SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE CAN TAKE

IN STRIDE BECAUSE OTHER THINGS

ARE WORKING WELL RIGHT NOW?

>> I THINK IT'S VERY MUCH TAKEN

IN STRIDE TODAY BECAUSE OTHER

THINGS ARE WORKING WELL.

BUT I DON'T THINK ANYBODY IN

TAIWAN IS UNDER ANY ILLUSION

THAT THE BASIC EXPECTATION IN

MAINLAND CHINA HAS NOT CHANGED.

AND THE BASIC EXPECTATION IS

THAT, SOONER OR LATER, ONE WAY

OR ANOTHER, TAIWAN WILL BE

INCORPORATED INTO A STATE WHICH

HAS ITS HEADQUARTERS IN MAINLAND

CHINA.

AND FOR A LONG TIME, THE

EXPECTATION HAS BEEN THAT THAT

WOULD BE THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC

OF CHINA, THE PRC STATE THAT

WE KNOW TODAY.

THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT

THERE MIGHT BE SOME FLEXIBILITY

ON THAT, THAT, YOU KNOW, MAYBE

IN THE FUTURE -- AND NOT THE

NEAR FUTURE -- THERE COULD BE A

CHINESE ENTITY THAT IS NOT

EXACTLY THE PRC OR TAIWAN'S

SO-CALLED R.O.C. -- REPUBLIC OF

CHINA -- FOUNDED BACK IN THE

EARLY 20th CENTURY.

BUT I THINK WHAT PEOPLE IN

TAIWAN ARE MOSTLY ASSUMING TODAY

IS THAT THE GOAL OF THE CHINESE

COMMUNIST PARTY, THE LEADERSHIP

OF THE PRC, IS TO BRING

TAIWAN INTO THE PRC ONE WAY

OR ANOTHER -- WITH OR WITHOUT A

HIGH LEVEL OF AUTONOMY.

HOWEVER, BEIJING IS NOT PUSHING

ON THAT ISSUE RIGHT NOW.

SO I THINK WHERE TAIWANESE TEND

TO ENCOUNTER CHINESE NATIONALISM

IS WHEN THEY GO TO MAINLAND

CHINA, WHICH TAIWANESE DO A LOT.

AND WHAT THEY ENCOUNTER THERE IS

A VERY STRONG, ALMOST REFLEX,

NATIONALISM.

I THINK, WHEN TAIWANESE GET TO

CHINA, THEY DISCOVER THAT IN THE

MAINLAND, THIS IS NOT A

COMPLICATED ISSUE.

THIS IS NOT A QUESTION FOR

DEBATE OR DISCUSSION, AND,

IRONICALLY, THAT HAS REINFORCED,

FOR MANY TAIWANESE, THEIR SENSE

THAT THEY NEED TO PROTECT THAT

SEPARATE IDENTITY, AND THEY NEED

TO BE MORE ASSERTIVE ABOUT IT,

BECAUSE, I THINK, WHEN THEY'RE

IN TAIWAN, THEY DON'T REALLY

THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH CHINESE

NATIONALISM IMPINGES ON TAIWAN'S

FUTURE.

BUT WHEN THEY'RE IN THE

MAINLAND, THEY'RE CONSTANTLY

REMINDED.

"WE MAINLANDERS HAVE THIS

EXPECTATION," SO A LOT OF

TAIWANESE ACTUALLY END UP COMING

BACK FROM CHINA MORE KIND OF

PRO-TAIWAN THAN THEY WERE WHEN

THEY WENT TO THE MAINLAND.