初級 471 タグ追加 保存
動画の字幕をクリックしてすぐ単語の意味を調べられます!
単語帳読み込み中…
字幕の修正報告
I AM SCARLET FU.
JOE: I AM JOE WEISENTHAL.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
OLIVER.

JANET YELLEN'S SHARES
HER VIEW ON WHERE POLICY IS
HEADED.
WE HAVE THE CHARTS YOU CAN'T
MISS.
DOES IT JUST NEED TO
GROW UP?
SLIVER: RAPID DEMOGRAPHIC
AROUND THE WORLD, WE WILL FIND
OUT WHAT IT HAS TO SAY.
SCARLET: U.S. STOCKS DRIFTING
LOWER.
IT WAS A MODEST MOVE.
A STAT THAT TELLS YOU
WHAT HAPPENED.
IS IN ITS 30TH DAY
WITHOUT A ONE PERCENT OF MOVE IN
EITHER DIRECTION ON.
THAT IS A ONE-WEEK, THANK YOU.
A VERY QUIET WEEK.
THOSE COULD BE ONE DAY MOVES.
IS VERY LITTLE
HAPPENING IN THE MARKET.
GREEN.DAQ TURNING
STOCKS WITH THE SECOND
WEEKLY LOSS SINCE JUNE.
SOME OF THE THINGS WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT CONTINUE.
BASIS POINT MOVE
AND SEMICONDUCTORS, LED BY A
APPLIED MATERIALS AND MICRON.
STOCKS,S AND TELECOM
THE ONLY REAL GROUP MOVING HERE,
AND THEY ARE MOVING DOWNWARD.
STOCK BUBBLEVALUE
IS STARTING TO LET SOME AIR AND
OUT.
ONE OF THE BIG SECTORS THAT
LOST WERE YIELD SENSITIVE AREAS.
HERE IS A ONE-MONTH CHART OF THE
U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD.
U.S. 10 YEAR YIELDS CLOSING OUT
TODAY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE
AUGUST.
THELET: I AM FOCUSING ON
POUND SHARE.
-POUND. YUAN
TO KEEP INDEADLINE
MIND.
GERMANY AND FRANCE ARE PREPARING
FOR ELECTIONS.
ALSO, OIL, A ONE-MONTH
CHART OF OIL, EARLY AUGUST, BEAR
MARKET, TICKING HIGHER TODAY.
AUGUST, BACK FOR
IN A BULL MARKET, SO
UNIMPRESSIVE RECOVERY.
SCARLET: A BULL MARKET WITHIN
THE BEAR MARKET.
JOE: THAT'S RIGHT.
LET'S TAKE A DEEP DIVE
INTO THE BLOOMBERG.
I'M LOOKING AT ONE OF THE
STORIES WE'RE LOOKING AT,
VIACOM.
THE CEO FELL VICTIM TO SHERRY
REDSTONE AND HER FATHER.
THEY ARE NOW LAYING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR VIACOM, THE BLUE
, AND CBS, THE WHITE LINE,
TO REUNITE.
THE VALUATION GAP IS CLOSING.
THE SPREAD NARROWED AS MUCH AS
57% SINCE MARCH.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS HAPPENS AND WHAT SHAPES
UP NEXT BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN
SO MUCH DRAMA THERE.
JOE: SO MUCH DRAMA.
I AM LOOKING AT EMERGING MARKETS
STOCKS.
AT THE A 10 YEAR LOOK
EMERGING MARKET ETF.
THE QUESTION IS ARE WE AT A
BOTTOM.
IS IT A DURABLE TURNAROUND OR
NOT?
SOME OF THESE OTHER LINES ARE
THE 20 WEEK AND 50 WEEK MOVING
AVERAGES.
TO BREAKING ABOVE
THE 50 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE.
IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT TRIED TO BREAK OUT ON THE
RANGE, SO TRIED TO KEEP, ON
THAT, MAYBE THAT IS THEY SIGN OF
A DURABLE BOUNCEBACK.
BOUNDS ISD
ON THE WAY DOWN.
I'M LOOKING AT VOLUME.
IX GROUPS AND NEW EXCHANGE
STARTED TRADING.
YOU ARE SEEING THE TREND
WHERE THERE IS MORE AND MORE
VOLUME HAPPENING OFF EXCHANGES.
THE MARKET STRUCTURE FOR TRADING
HAS CHANGED SO MUCH, BECOMING
MORE DYNAMIC.
THE RED LINE IS OFF EXCHANGE,
39%.
THIS IS A ROLLING 30 DAY
AVERAGE.
MORE TRADESMORE AND
HAPPENING OFF YOUR MAIN
EXCHANGES.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OTHERAT SPACE EVOLVES AND
TRADING PLATFORMS COME TO
MARKET.
WEEK, THE HUGE
JACKSON HOLE EVENT.
HEAR FROM BRILLIANT
MINDS IN THE WORLD OF MONETARY
POLICY.
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT THESE
DAYS?
EVERYONE WANTS TO HEAR WHEN
THE NEXT RATE HIKE WILL BE.
DOES SAY, PEOPLE
WILL TAKE CLUES FROM.
THE OTHER BIG THING IS THE TOPIC
, DESIGNINGERENCE
RESILIENT POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR
THE FUTURE.
BIGGER EXISTENTIAL ISSUES
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL
BANKING.
SITUATIONA PERMANENT
WHERE THEY WILL BE USING BALANCE
SHEETS AND THAT SORT OF THING
GOING FORWARD.
LET'S GET THE
SHORT-TERM CHATTER OUT OF THE
WAY.
SHOWS THECHART THAT
PROBABILITY OF A SEPTEMBER RATE
INCREASE.
THAT IS THE WHITE LINE.
WE ARE LOOKING AT 14%.
FOR DECEMBER, 30% RIGHT NOW.
WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
JANET YELLEN DOES NOT GIVE US
ANY INDICATION?
>> I THINK THAT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY.
IT DEPENDS.
, SHEE REALLY WANTS TO HIKE
WAS AN SIGNALS.
OTHERWISE, SHE WANT.
GIVEN WHERE MARKETS ARE AND THE
GET, DOES NOT SEEM LIKE
THEY ARE IN A BIG HURRY.
OLIVER: I THINK THE STORY OF THE
WEEK WAS INFLATION.
ANY CHANCE THEY WILL BE
DISCUSSING WHERE AND HOW TO
TARGET INFLATION?
WHAT HE WROTE ABOUT
INFLATION TARGETING AND RAISING
THE INFLATION TARGET GETS TO THE
HEART OF THIS TOPIC AT JACKSON
HOLE, WHICH IS WE NEED TO THINK
ABOUT THINGS OTHER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN DOING AND WHAT WE ARE
DOING.
THE IDEAS HE PUT FORWARD,
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE
INFLATION TARGET, MOVE THE
NOMINAL GDP TARGETING, WE MAY
NOT GET MUCH ON THAT STUFF, BUT
THAT IS THE BACKGROUND FOR WHAT
THEY ARE GOING TO BE DISCUSSING.
THE I HAVE A CHART ON
BLOOMBERG.
WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?
MATT: THIS IS RELATED TO
LONGFORM AND SHORT-TERM ISSUES.
R IS RISING MORE
THAN ONE MONTH.
THE WHITE LINE IS THE COMPONENT
IS ABOUTNCREASE THAT
FED EXPECTATIONS.
THAT HAS NOT REALLY MOVED MUCH.
THANKS ARE HAVING A HARDER TIME
FINDING DOLLAR FUNDING BECAUSE
AND OTHERORY REFORM
SOURCES OF DOLLAR FUNDING ARE
DRYING UP, LIKE PETRODOLLARS.
THIS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR BANKS GETTING
KIND OF THE THAT IS
PURPOSE OF A RATE HIKE, SO MAYBE
THAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ONE.
NOT GOING TO TRY AND
COMMENT ON THIS, BUT I WANT TO
TELL YOU WHY WE ARE LOOKING AT
THIS, PRICE EXPECTATIONS BY
GENDER.
MATT: THESE ARE INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS, IMPORTANT TO THE
FED.
THIS IS WHAT KEEPS THEM UP AT
NIGHT.
FOR WOMEN, INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS ARE AT A RECORD
LOW.
FOR MEN, THEY ARE JUST SHY OF A
, BUT YOU CAN SEE HOW
TENUOUS THE SITUATION IS.
THEY HAVE PLUNGED OVER THE LAST
FEW MONTHS, AND THAT IS AN
INTERESTING WAY TO LOOK AT IT.
THINK I EVER
REALIZED BEFORE THAT THEY WERE
BROKEN DOWN BY THAT WAY, AGE,
GENDER, EDUCATION, AND PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD THEY ARE
RECORD LOWS.AR
THIS IS WHY THE FED IS BEING
VERY CAREFUL RIGHT NOW.
THEYIS NOT SOMETHING WHERE
WANT TO GET INTO HIKING RATES
AND HAVE THAT GO FURTHER.
THAT'S ONE OF THE
THINGS PEOPLE POINT TO WHEN THEY
SAY THE U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT A
STRONG AT SOME OF THE DATA
SUGGEST.
IF YOU LOOK AT GDP SINCE THE END
OF 2000 SEVEN, THE U.S. GREW
FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE
DEVELOPED MARKETS, BUT THE U.S.
POPULATION GREW FASTER, SO IT
GOES THE ECONOMY SHOULD GROW
FASTER.
WHAT MATTERS IS LOOKING AT PER
CAPITA GDP.
THE U.S. IS NOT THAT MUCH
FURTHER AHEAD.
INSTANCE, WHICH IS
NOT ON THIS CHART IS GROWING
FASTER THAN THE U.S..
THE U.S. IS BLUE AND THAT
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE PURPLE.
MATT: IT HIGHLIGHTS HOW THE
CENTRAL BANKS ARE DEALING WITH
THE SAME ISSUE NOW BEING SO
CLOSE TO ZERO AND HAVING TO COME
UP WITH NEW WAYS TO POTENTIALLY
STIMULATE, AND THOSE INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS ARE THE MOST DOVISH
CHART OUT THERE THAT YOU CAN
FIND.
THAT IS WEIGHING ON THEIR MINDS
RIGHT NOW.
EVERYONE CLOSE TO ZERO,
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FALLING,
THAT'S NOT A SITUATION WHERE YOU
WANT TO GET AHEAD OF YOURSELF
AND RAISE RATES.
JOE: SHOULD BE A FASCINATING
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MATT BOESLER, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
SCARLET: ONE YEAR SINCE CHIPOTLE
HAS BEEN HIT, SHARES HAVE YET TO
RECOVER, DOWN 50%.
BET ON ITS OTHER
VENTURES TO TURN THINGS AROUND?
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

OBAMA HEADING TO
FLOOD RAVAGED LOUISIANA.
DONALD TRUMP AND MIKE PENCE TO
URED THE DAMAGE TODAY.
CLINTON SPOKE WITH THE
STATE'S GOVERNOR.
13 PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THOSE
FLOODS.
HAS STEPPED DOWN,
COMING AFTER THE CAMPAIGN
ANNOUNCED A MAJOR SHAKEUP
WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND LEADERSHIP
RESHUFFLE IN TWO MONTHS.
BECOME SCRUTINIZED
BECAUSE OF HIS RUSSIAN
CONNECTION TO THE FORMER
PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE.
TERRORTH TOLL FROM THE
ATTACK IN NICE IS NOW 86.
THE LATEST VICTIM HAD BEEN AT
HOSPITAL AND DIED FROM INJURIES
SUSTAINED DURING THAT JULY
MASSACRE.
IS THE SECOND HOSPITALIZE
PERSON TO DIE SINCE THE ATTACK.
DOZENS MORE WERE WOUNDED WHEN A
TUNISIAN DROVE A TRUCK INTO A
CROWD, THE ISLAMIC STATE TAKING
RESPONSIBILITY.
MILLION DOLLAR CASH
PAYMENT TO IRAN WAS CONTINGENT
ON THE RELEASE OF A GROUP OF
AMERICAN PRISONERS.
IT IS BEING SLAMMED BY GOP
LAWMAKERS TODAY.
IT WAS THE FIRST TIME THE U.S.
HAD DEFINITIVELY LINKED THE TWO
EVENTS.
PAUL RYAN ACCUSE THE PRESIDENT
OF MISLEADING THE PUBLIC.
DONALD TRUMP SAID MR. OBAMA
OPENLY AND BLATANTLY LIED ABOUT
THAT EXCHANGE.
A START LOST HIS JOB AS
PRESIDENT AND CHANCELLOR --
KENNETH STARR LOST HIS JOB AS
AS HEENT AND CHANCELLOR
RESIGNS AS BAYLOR LAW PROFESSOR.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY
POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600
JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE
THAN 120 COUNTRIES.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
CHIPOTLE MAY NEED TO GROW UP.
THE STOCK HAS SEEN HIGHS AND
LOWS.
SINCE THE BACTERIA OUTBREAK,
THREE STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF
DOUBLE-DIGIT SALES THE KLEINS,
SO IS IT TIME FOR CHIPOTLE TO
REBRAND ITS BUSINESS?
CHIPOTLE IS NOT JUST ABOUT ITS
NAMESAKE RESTAURANT.
FRANCHISES AS WELL.
PART, 99.2% OF
REVENUE COMES FROM CHIPOTLE.
13 SHOP HOUSES AND
THREE PIZZERIA LOCALES.
THEY HAVE HAD THESE CONCEPTS
FOR A WHILE.
BEFORE THE CRISIS, THEY DID NOT
EVER SAY MUCH ABOUT THEM.
THEY HAVE BEEN OUT THERE, BUT
.NLY GETTING ATTENTION NOW
PLUS, THE NEWS THAT THEY WILL
OPEN A BURGER CONCEPT, WHICH HAS
BEEN MET WITH CONFUSION.
THESE GUYS HAVE BIG PROBLEMS IN
THEIR CORE BUSINESS, SHOULDN'T
THEY FIX THE CORE BUSINESS?
WHERE ARE THESE OTHER
RESTAURANTS?
THEY HAVE DONE A COUPLE IN
KANSAS, MARYLAND, WASHINGTON,
, BUT GEOGRAPHIC CLUSTERS
THEY DON'T MOVE THE NEEDLE.
AWAY DRAWING ATTENTION
FROM WHAT THEY SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ON, WHICH IS FIXING THEIR CORE
BUSINESS, WHICH IS TROUBLED.
JOE: WE SHOW THE STOCK CHART
EARLIER.
IT HAS NOT RECOVERED AT ALL FROM
WHEN IT STARTED COLLAPSING AFTER
THE BACTERIA STUFF.
IS THERE ANY SIGN OF A
FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS TURNAROUND?
>> NO, NOT YET.
THE QUESTION IS WHEN THIS WILL
HAPPEN.
WHEN IT FIRST HIT, PEOPLE SAID
IT COULD BE 2017 BEFORE THIS
STARTS TO TURN AROUND.
BIG HIT TO THEIR
BRAND, HUGE HEADLINE RISKS, THE
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BAD, THREE
STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF DECLINING
SALES.
I DON'T REMEMBER ANY
HEADLINES RECENTLY.
>> THE LAST PERSON WHO GOT SICK
WAS IN DECEMBER.
THERE WAS A SCARE IN MARCH, BUT
THEY FOLLOWED PROTOCOLS AND NO
CUSTOMERS GOT SICK.
RIGHT NOW IT IS JUST A TARNISHED
BRAND.
OLIVER: SHARES ARE DOWN 49%
RIGHT NOW.
WE'VE TALKING ABOUT THIS
RESTAURANT RECESSION, HOW MUCH
OF THIS -- OBVIOUSLY THEY HAVE
THESE SPECIFIC PROBLEMS, BUT IS
THERE ANY CHANCE THAT IT IS
GETTING WRAPPED UP, MACRO TREND,
WITH RESTAURANTS.
WERE TALKING ABOUT 23%
DECLINES IN SAME-STORE SALES.
THINK CHIPOTLE
IS RIGHT FOR AN ACTIVIST
INVESTOR?
>> WE KEEP HEARING ABOUT THAT.
THE BIG TREND IN RESTAURANTS IS
FRANCHISEESNG, MAKE
TAKE THE COST.
SELL THEM BACK AND TAKE THE
BURGER KING MODEL.
INSULAR AND THERE
HAS BEEN CRITICISM OF NO
DIVERSITY ON THE BOARD.
THE FOUNDERS ARE STILL HEAVILY
INVOLVED.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
SCARLET: COMING UP, AUDIENCE IS
PARTICIPATION, PLEASE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
MY CHART IS ON WHAT AILS THE
ECONOMY.
WE HAVE A LOT OF THAT AND A HUGE
TRADE DEFICIT.
-- WE HAVE A LOT OF DEBT AND A
HUGE TRADE DEFICIT.
IT SEEMS LIKE THERE ARE
DIFFERENT WAYS TO INTERPRET IT.
IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE WAY
OF ESSENTIALLY THESE DIFFERENT
SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY TRADE,
GOVERNMENT SPENDING, PRIVATE
ASSETS.
SCARLET: THE BACK DROP IS THE
U.S. LOSSES AND TRADE AND JOBS.
THE PUSHBACK FROM OTHER
ECONOMISTS WILL SAY THAT
CUMULATIVE TRADE AND TRADE
DEBT FIGURES
DON'T TELL THE WHOLE STORY.
IT DOESN'T ACCOUNT FOR SERVICES
--
YOU HAVE THRIVING ECONOMIES
THAT PERSISTENTLY RUN TRADE
DEFICITS, EVEN DURING BOOM
TIMES.
OLIVER: WHILE THE TWO ARE MIRROR
IMAGES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ISSTANDING TREASURIES
MOVING.
JOE: I HAVE A CHART THAT WAS
SENT TO ME.
IS EM RISK.NE
YOU CAN SEE IT BOUNCED IN
JANUARY AND HAS BEEN RALLYING
BACK NICELY.
THE BLUE LINE IS THE MARKETS ONE
YEAR EXPECT TATIAN OF A RATE
HIKE.
FED IS PAYING MORE
AND MORE ATTENTION TO
INTERNATIONAL CONDITIONS.
IT MAKES SENSE PERHAPS THAT THE
MARKETS RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS
WOULD BE TIED TO THE FORTUNES OF
EMERGING MARKETS.
HIS ARGUMENT AS THAT THE MARKET
IS TOO COMPLACENT ABOUT WHAT THE
FED MIGHT DO IN LIGHT OF THIS
GLOBAL REBOUND.
SCARLET: THAT BLUE LINE NEEDS TO
COME UP A LITTLE BIT.
OLIVER: TALKING ABOUT EMERGING
MARKETS AND VOLATILITY, I'M
LOOKING AT VOLATILITY AGAIN.
THE VIX HAS BEEN LOW, BUT THIS
IS INTERESTING.
THERE IS SUBDUED VOLATILITY AND
THE CURRENCY MARKETS.
SMALL PICKUP IN THE JAPANESE YEN
VOLATILITY, BUT MARKETS REMAIN
COMPLACENT.
WE'VE SEEN VOLATILITY SPIKES
LATELY, BUT FOR NOW, NOT THERE.
RAPIDT: WE WILL DISCUSS A
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT IN GLOBAL
TERRORISM AND WHAT IT TELLS US
ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

WORD LET'S GET TO FIRST
NEWS.
PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL VISIT
LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY.
HE HAS BEEN RECEIVING
UPDATES.
PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE
FLOODS, 40,000 BUILDINGS
DAMAGED.
TRUMP AND MIKE PENCE HAVE
BEEN SURVEYING THE DAMAGE IN
LOUISIANA.
THEY VISITED WITH VICK THEM SO
THE FLOODS.
-- WITH THE VICTIMS OF THE
FLOODS.
HILLARY CLINTON SAYS SHE SPOKE
TO JOHN BEL EDWARDS BY PHONE.
SHE SAYS THE RELIEF EFFORT
CANNOT AFFORD ANY DISTRACTIONS.
SHE SAID THE BEST WAY TO HELP US
TO MAKE SURE THAT THE PEOPLE OF
LOUISIANA HAVE THE RESOURCES
THEY NEED.
,ORE THAN 200 BUILDINGS
INCLUDING 100 SINGLE-FAMILY
HOMES, WERE DESTROYED AND
WILDFIRES 60 MILES EAST OF LOS
ANGELES.
,IREFIGHTERS ARE MAKING HEADWAY
THE FAR NOW 26% CONTAINED.
82,000LAMES FORCED
RESIDENTS FROM THEIR HOMES.
THEIRNT WOMEN AND
PARTNERS SHOULD CONSIDER
POSTPONING TRAVEL TO ALL OF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
IDENTIFIED ARITIES
SECOND ZONE OF LOCAL ZIKA
TRANSMISSION, INCLUDING SOUTH
BEACH.
STATE NOW HAS TWO AREAS
CONSIDERED ACTIVE FOR POTENTIAL
ZIKA EXPOSURE.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY
POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600
JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE
THAN 120 COUNTRIES.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
. AM RAMY INOCENCIO
SCARLET: THANK YOU.
LET'S GET A RECAP OF TODAY'S
MARKET ACTION, NOT A LOT OF
ACTION TO SPEAK OF, STOCKS
FALLING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
THREE DAYS, NO ECONOMIC DATA
THAT MOVE THE MARKETS,, SO
EVERYONE IS LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
JACKSON HOLE MEETING NEXT WEEK.
VERY LITTLE RIPPLES IN THE
MARKET, WHETHER IT IS FIXED
INCOME, FOREX, EQUITIES, ALL
VERY QUIET.
OLIVER: IT MAKES YOU WONDER
WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE ARE
PREPARED FOR ANY KIND OF
DISRUPTION.
WE CHRONICLED A LOT OF THINGS
WHERE PEOPLE HAVE
GOTTEN INTO THE MARKET, SO WE
WILL SEE.
JOE: IT'S ALMOST TOO QUIET.
OLIVER: MAYBE.
JOE: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
THE WORLDE CHANGES IN
ECONOMY BY OBSERVING HOW PEOPLE
TRAVEL.
THERE IS A SHIFT IT MAY HAVE A
POSITIVE OUTCOME FOR THE TRAVEL
INDUSTRY.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
WHAT ARE YOUCH,
SEEING IN THE WORLD AND WHAT
SHOULD PEOPLE WHO DON'T A
ATTENTION TO TRAVEL INDUSTRY
TRENDS CLOSELY BE WATCHING?
>> THE SUMMER IS GOING BADLY FOR
THE SECTOR BECAUSE OF FEARS,
ISIS, TERRORISM, ZIKA,
IMMIGRATION, ELECTIONS IN THE
U.S., AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISSUES IN
ISSUES, AIRLINES, I.T.
SOUTHWEST HAD AN ISSUE LAST
WEEK, DELTA AS WELL, SO A BUNCH
OF THINGS ARE AFFECTING THE
INDUSTRY AT THIS POINT.
IS THEK THAT TRAVEL
BELLWETHER SECTOR.
IT IS THE ONE THAT SNEEZES FIRST
WHEN ANYTHING HAPPENS IN THE
WORLD ECONOMY, SO AN INTERESTING
SECTOR TO LOOK AT.
SCARLET: I WANTED TO GET A
COMMENT I BROUGHT FROM THE CEO
OF KAYAK, TO THE EXTENT THAT
AMERICANS MIGHT BE TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONGER
DOLLAR.
MOST AMERICANS DON'T THINK IN
TERMS OF EXCHANGE RATES.
TIME TO BUILD, BUT THAT
INTEREST WILL BE THERE.
SCARLET: MAYBE BY NEXT SUMMER.
IS THAT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
FEARS THAT ABOUND NOW?
>> PROBABLY NOT.
IT DEPENDS ON WHAT KIND OF
DISTRACTIONS HAPPEN.
IS TAKING OUT A HUGE AMOUNT
OF CAPACITY IN THE CRUISE
INDUSTRY.
, THE ANSWER DEPENDS
ON THE TYPE OF DISRUPTION.
OFVER: I WONDER IF SOME
THESE EVENTS HAVE KEPT PEOPLE AT
HOME INSTEAD OF TRAVELING.
I WONDER IF IT IS ALSO WHERE
THEY ARE HAPPENING.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT EVENTS IN
BEFORE TRAVELING
TO MIAMI, ALL THESE PLACES YOU
DON'T TYPICALLY ASSOCIATE WITH
FEARS ABOUT TRAVEL.
AT OURE THINGS ARE
DOORSTEPS IN A LOT OF WAYS.
SOME OF THE ECONOMIES ARE
BENEFITING.
THE CAPACITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKEN
, TUNISIA, EGYPT,
THEY'RE GOING TO SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL.
JOE: WHAT ABOUT LOOKING AT IT
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE
EMERGING CONSUMER AROUND THE
WORLD?
U.S. CONSUMERS ARE LESS INCLINED
TO GO TO EUROPE OR SOUTH
AMERICA, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
HUGE BOOM OUTBOUND FROM CHINA.
WHAT ELSE ARE WE SEEING IN TERMS
OF COUNTRIES WHERE THERE IS A
BIG BOOM?
CHANGING, ECONOMY IS
BUT BRAZIL THIS YEAR HAS BEEN
PRETTY BAD FOR BRAZILIAN
OUTBOUND.
INDIA IS GROWING WELL.
IF YOU LOOK AT SOUTHEAST ASIA,
IT IS ONE OF THE MOST
FASCINATING AREAS IN THE WORLD
OF TRAVEL BECAUSE THE SHEER
AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT LIVE IN
THE EFFECT OFD
LOW-COST AIRLINES IN THAT REGION
OF THE WORLD.
WE THINK SOUTHEAST ASIA IS THE
BEST PLACE TO WATCH.
I WAS COMMENTING TO
SOMEONE BEFORE THE RECENT BOMB
ATTACKS IN THAILAND THAT IT
SEEMS LIKE THE SAFEST PLACE IN
THE WORLD TO VISIT NOW.
ALWAYS SEEMS ON EDGE
BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A TARGET AND
THE SUMMER HAS BEEN AWFUL FOR
EUROPE.
IS THAT A MISCONCEPTION?
>> I THINK SOUTHEAST ASIA IS
SAFE.
THAILAND FROM A TOURISM
PERSPECTIVE, THEY HAVE THINGS
UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART.
THAT HOTELSS BECOME
AND AIRPORTS GET HIT AS HIGH
PROFILE TARGETS.
WE HAVE TALKED OFF-LINE
ABOUT WHAT A GREAT COUNTRY
MALAYSIA IS AND HOW MORE PEOPLE
SHOULD TRAVEL THERE.
ARE YOU BULLISH ON THESE
COUNTRIES?
>> I THINK THEY HAVE DONE A GOOD
JOB WITH THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE.
IS CAN AIRLINES DIRECT
ROUTES FROM SOME OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN --
A VERYE CRASH IS
AIRLINES, A TERRIBLE STRING OF
THEM, WAS THERE AN IMPACT ON
TRAVEL DATA AFTER THOSE?
HUGELAYSIA HAD A
CONTINGENT OF CHINESE INBOUND,
AND THAT WAS AFFECTED BIG TIME.
OLIVER: AS PEOPLE RETHINK
TRAVELING, I SUSPECT THERE IS A
REACTION BY HOTELS AND AIRLINES
TO INDUCE PEOPLE.
IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO TRAVEL
WHEN YOU GAUGE EXPENSES?
>> JULY AND AUGUST, THE NUMBER
OF BOOKINGS WERE 20% UP AS A
RESULT OF A WEAKER POUND, SO IT
IS A GOOD TIME TO TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE, OUTSIDE
SOME OF THE FLASHPOINTS, IF YOU
WILL.
FRANCE IS STILL A SAFE PLACE IN
GENERAL COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS
OF THE WORLD.
PRICES ARE CHEAP, HOTELS ARE
CHEAP.
THE GOOD PART IS THERE IS A BIG
BATTLE BETWEEN THE ONLINE TRAVEL
BOOKING SITES LIKE KAYAK,
EXPEDIA, AND THE HOTELS, WHICH
MEANS THAT ONE IS TRYING TO
FIGHT THE OTHER AND PRICES ARE
LOWER.
OLIVER: PRICES ARE LOWER AS A
RESULT OF THE COMPETITION.
BACK TO I WANT TO GO
THAT CHART WITH CHINESE TOURISTS
SPENDING AND HOW OFF THE CHARTS
IT IS.
HAVE NOTICED IS THAT
WHENEVER THERE IS A GOLDEN WEEK
IN CHINA, CERTAIN CITIES AND
RESORTS ARE OVERRUN BY CHINESE
TOURIST.
THOUSANDSUNDREDS OF
OF PEOPLE DESCENDING ON ONE
LITTLE CITY THAT MAY NOT BE
EQUIPPED TO DEAL WITH THAT KIND
OF VOLUME.
>> THE VOLUME OUT OF CHINA IS
OFF THE CHARTS.
EVEN INDIA.
IS THERE ANY CHANGE IN
WHERE THEY ARE GOING?
,AVE WE SEEN ANY TRENDS
EUROPE, NORTH AMERICA?
>> THEY USED TO BE THE CLICHÉ OF
ANDCHINESE TOURIST IN BUSES
GOING TO SPECIFIC PARTS OF THE
WORLD.
I THINK THAT IS CHANGING,
ESPECIALLY YOUNGER CHINESE.
THEY ARE GOING BE ON THE HUBS,
BEYOND NEW YORK CITY, FOR
EXAMPLE, THEY WILL END UP IN
PHILLY.
SCARLET: YOU SEE LOTS OF SMALL
GROUPS TRAVELING.
FOR THINK THAT IS GOOD NEWS
SMALLER JOE: CITIES AS WELL.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
SCARLET: DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN
CHAIRMAN RESIGNED, CAPPING A
WEEK OF DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.

SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
IT IS TIME FOR THE BLOOMBERG
BUSINESS FLASH.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES PARING
LOSSES WITH A GAIN OF ALMOST 3%.
DECLINES FORIM
PURE ALPHA TWO TO 9%.
THE FUND HAD LOST CLOSE TO 12%.
MORGANAWSUIT ACCUSES
STANLEY OF FORCING HYPHAE
INVESTMENT FUNDS.
SAID THEPARTICIPANT
COMPANY TREATED IT'S A
BILLION-DOLLAR PLAN TO PROMOTE
ITS OWN MUTUAL FUND BUSINESS.
IT IS ALSO ACCUSED OF CHARGING
HIGHER FUND FEES TO ITS OWN
WORKERS THAN OUTSIDE INVESTORS.
TRAVELERS AT WITH
ALS AND HAS DIED TODAY.
THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESS
FLASH.
OLIVER: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
PAUL MANAFORT HAS RESIGNED AS
DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN
CHAIRMAN.
PRO-RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENTS SIGOURNEY ROUTE
PAYMENTS.
FOR A LOOK AT THE NEXT STEPS FOR
TEAM TRUMP, LET'S HEAD TO
WASHINGTON.
WELCOME.
A BIG OF A MESS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE?
>> YOU DON'T WANT SOMEONE TO BE
RUNNING A CAMPAIGN THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY A FOREIGN AGENT OR
HAS BEEN A FOREIGN AGENT FOR
PEOPLE SYMPATHETIC TO RUSSIA.
WHERE HE WASHING
SUPPOSED TO REGISTER AS A
FOREIGN AGENT AND DIDN'T.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE CONVERSATION IN
WASHINGTON FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THAT IS NOT THE REBOOT THAT
DONALD TRUMP WAS LOOKING FOR.
COMES ONRESIGNATION
THE HEELS OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN
HAVING BROUGHT IN SOME NEW BLOOD
AT THE VERY TOP THAT SOME
INTERPRETED TO BE AT THE MOTION
FOR PAUL MANAFORT.
HOW MUCH OF THIS RESIGNATION IS
THE TO THE FACT THAT
WRITING WAS ON THE WALL AND HE
WAS NO LONGER IN CHARGE?
HOW WAS THE BRINGING END OF THE
NEW BLOOD AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF
BAD NEWS TO PAUL MANAFORT,
UKRAINE TIES, WHAT WAS THE CAUSE
AND EVENT HERE?
I'M CERTAIN IT WAS THE NEWS
COMING OUT ABOUT UKRAINE THAT
WOULD BE THE CAUSE FOR THIS
RESIGNATION.
EASIER THAT HET
BECAME LESS IMPORTANT FOR THE
CAMPAIGN AT THIS POINT.
HE WAS ALREADY BEING
DEEMPHASIZED EVEN THOUGH HE WAS
IN A CIRCLE AMONG THE TOP FOUR
PEOPLE IN THE CAMPAIGN STILL.
WHEN YOU ARE HAVING THE
CONVERSATION ABOUT THE TOP EIGHT
BEING A FOREIGN AGENT FOR PEOPLE
SYMPATHETIC TO VLADIMIR PUTIN,
IT IS NOT A HARD DECISION TO
ACCEPT HIS RESIGNATION.
SCARLET: SPEAKING OF AN INNER
CIRCLE, IT IS NOTABLE THAT
IVANKA TRUMP AND HER HUSBAND
WERE ON VACATION AROUND THE TIME
THESE CHANGES TOOK PLACE.
IS THERE ANYTHING TO READ INTO
THAT?
>> I DON'T THINK I WOULD READ
MUCH INTO IT BECAUSE THIS IS NOT
A HARD POLITICAL DECISION.
AGAIN, IT IS VERY EMBARRASSING
AND YOU HAVE ALREADY MADE A
DECISION THAT YOU ARE GOING TO
GO IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION AND
YOU'RE JUST KEEPING HIM AROUND
FOR SOME CONTINUITY.
IT IS NOT A HARD DECISION TO
MAKE.
IN AR: I WANT TO BRING
SOUNDBITE FROM A DONALD TRUMP'S
SPEECH, WHERE HE DID SOMETHING
THAT HE DOES NOT TYPICALLY DO,
WHICH WAS SOME KIND OF APOLOGY.
>> SOMETIMES IN THE HEAT OF
DEBATE AND SPEAKING ON A
MULTITUDE OF ISSUES, YOU DON'T
CHOOSE THE RIGHT WORDS OR YOU
SAY THE WRONG THING, I HAVE DONE
THAT, AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, I
REGRET IT.
WHAT KIND OF APOLOGY IS
THIS?
IS THIS WHAT MY MOTHER CALLED
CROCODILE TEARS?
SHOWSS IS SOMETHING THAT
HE IS DOING WHAT A LOT OF
POLITICIANS DO.
YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY GET
EVERYTHING BACK I MAKING AN
APOLOGY, BUT IT HELPS SOME, AND
YOU HAVE TO MAKE APOLOGY
NOTTIMES EVEN IF YOU DO
FULLY REGRET IT IN POLITICS, AND
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE WHERE TRUMP
THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS
DOING SOMETHING THEY DO IN THE
BIG LEAGUES IN POLITICS, WHICH
WHEN YOU OFFEND VOTERS, YOU
MAKE AN APOLOGY, EVEN IF IT WILL
NOT WIN THEM ALL BACK AND EVEN
IF YOU DO NOT ENTIRELY REGRET
WHAT YOU SAID.
THE HILLARYRE IS
CLINTON CAMPAIGN, THEIR OWN
CONTROVERSIES AROUND TIES TO
FOREIGN ENTITIES.
WE FOUND THE CLINTON FOUNDATION
WILL NO LONGER ACCEPT MONEY FROM
FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS.
WILL THE DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN
BE SUCCESSFUL OR ABLE TO MAKE
SOME HAY WITH CLINTON'S OWN
CONNECTIONS TO FOREIGN ENTITIES
NOW THE PAUL MANAFORT IS OUT OF