I actually speak at TED Evil, which is TED's secret sister

TEDでの講演は初めてです　広告マンなので

that pays all the bills.

いつもはお金を儲ける側のTEDの秘密組織

It's held every two years in Burma.

｢悪のTED」で講演しています

And I particularly remember a really good speech

２年に一度ミャンマーで開催され

by Kim Jong Il on how to get teens smoking again.

特に良かった演説は 金正日の

(Laughter)

「若者に喫煙を再開させる方法」です

But, actually, it's suddenly come to me after years working in the business,

（笑）

that what we create in advertising,

広告業界で長年働き 気付いたのは

which is intangible value -- you might call it perceived value,

宣伝広告で作り上げる無形価値―

you might call it badge value, subjective value,

言い換えれば知覚価値

intangible value of some kind --

またはブランド価値 主観価値

gets rather a bad rap.

こうした何かしらの無形価値が

If you think about it, if you want to live in a world in the future

少々悪者扱いされていることです

where there are fewer material goods, you basically have two choices.

モノが少ない環境で

You can either live in a world which is poorer,

将来暮らすことを考えると 基本的に選択肢は２つあります

which people in general don't like.

一般的に敬遠される

Or you can live in a world where actually intangible value

貧困の中で暮らすか

constitutes a greater part of overall value,

無形価値が 価値全体の中で

that actually intangible value, in many ways

大きな割合を占める世界で生活するか

is a very, very fine substitute

色々な意味で無形価値は

for using up labor or limited resources

労働力や限られた資源を

in the creation of things.

使い尽くすより

Here is one example. This is a train which goes from London to Paris.

ずっと良い選択です

The question was given to a bunch of engineers,

１つ例を―　ロンドン発パリ行きの

about 15 years ago, "How do we make the journey to Paris better?"

列車の旅を快適にする方法を

And they came up with a very good engineering solution,

15年程前 大勢のエンジニアに問いかけたところ

which was to spend six billion pounds

素晴らしい解決案が出ました

building completely new tracks

60億ポンドをかけ

from London to the coast,

全く新しい線路を

and knocking about 40 minutes off a three-and-half-hour journey time.

ロンドンから沿岸まで敷き

Now, call me Mister Picky. I'm just an ad man ...

３時間半の旅を40分短くするものです

... but it strikes me as a slightly unimaginative way of improving a train journey

私はただの広告マンですが

merely to make it shorter.

時間を短縮するだけとは 列車の旅を快適にする案として

Now what is the hedonic opportunity cost

あまり想像性がない・・・

on spending six billion pounds on those railway tracks?

では60億ポンドを線路以外に使ったら

Here is my naive advertising man's suggestion.

どんな快適さが得られるか？

What you should in fact do is employ all of the world's top male

これは広告マンの素朴な提案ですが

and female supermodels,

世界トップレベルの

pay them to walk the length of the train, handing out free Chateau Petrus

男女のスーパーモデルを雇い

for the entire duration of the journey.

旅の間ずっと高級ワインを振舞いながら車内を往復してもらうのは

(Laughter)

どうでしょう

(Applause)

（笑）

Now, you'll still have about three billion pounds left in change,

（拍手）

and people will ask for the trains to be slowed down.

30億ポンドくらい余る上 乗客は

(Laughter)

列車をもっと遅くしてくれと言うでしょう

Now, here is another naive advertising man's question again.

（笑）

And this shows that engineers,

ここでまた広告マンの素朴な疑問です

medical people, scientific people,

この話から エンジニアや

have an obsession with solving the problems of reality,

医療従事者 科学者たちは

when actually most problems, once you reach a basic level of wealth

現実問題の解決に執着する事がわかります

in society, most problems are actually problems of perception.

しかし実際 社会的な豊かさがある基準に達すると

So I'll ask you another question.

ほとんどは認識の問題になります

What on earth is wrong with placebos?

ここでもう１つ質問

They seem fantastic to me. They cost very little to develop.

プラシーボの一体何が悪いのか？

They work extraordinarily well.

開発費用も少なく 良く思えます

They have no side effects,

効果はバツグンです

or if they do, they're imaginary, so you can safely ignore them.

例え副作用があったとしても

(Laughter)

気のせいなので安心して無視できます

So I was discussing this. And I actually went to the Marginal Revolution blog

（笑）

by Tyler Cowen. I don't know if anybody knows it.

これを タイラー・コーエンの

Someone was actually suggesting that you can take this concept further,

ブログ｢限界革命」で議論しました

and actually produce placebo education.

ある人はなんとこの考えを更に発展させ

The point is that education doesn't actually work by teaching you things.

プラシーボ教育を提案していました

It actually works by giving you the impression

何かを教わる事より 良い教育を受けていると感じる事が

that you've had a very good education, which gives you an insane sense

効果を生むというのです

of unwarranted self-confidence,

つまり根拠のない自信に基づく

which then makes you very, very successful in later life.

うぬぼれに近い感覚が

So, welcome to Oxford, ladies and gentlemen.

後に大きな成功を収める事に繋がる

(Laughter)

というわけでオックスフォードへようこそ

(Applause)

（笑）

But, actually, the point of placebo education is interesting.

（拍手）

How many problems of life can be solved

でもプラシーボ教育の論点は興味深いものです

actually by tinkering with perception,

感じ方に手を加えるだけで

rather than that tedious, hardworking and messy business

人生のどれほどの問題が解決できるか？

of actually trying to change reality?

退屈で手間も面倒もかかる

Here's a great example from history. I've heard this attributed to several other kings,

現実を変える作業よりずっといい

but doing a bit of historical research,

歴史に好例があります　ある王が考えたもので

it seems to be Fredrick the Great.

調べたところ それは

Fredrick the Great of Prussia was very, very keen

プロイセンのフリードリヒ大帝でした

for the Germans to adopt the potato and to eat it,

彼は ドイツの民衆に

because he realized that if you had two sources of carbohydrate,

ジャガイモを大いに推奨していました

wheat and potatoes, you get less price volatility in bread.

小麦とジャガイモの

And you get a far lower risk of famine,

２つの炭水化物源があれば パンの価格変動が減少すると気づいたからです

because you actually had two crops to fall back on, not one.

飢餓のリスクも減少します

The only problem is: potatoes, if you think about it, look pretty disgusting.

２つの穀物に頼れますから

And also, 18th century Prussians ate very, very few vegetables --

唯一の問題はジャガイモが まずそうだという事です

rather like contemporary Scottish people.

18世紀 プロイセン人は滅多に野菜を食べませんでした

(Laughter)

現在のスコットランド人と一緒です

So, actually, he tried making it compulsory.

（笑）

The Prussian peasantry said,

大帝はジャガイモを強要しようとしました

"We can't even get the dogs to eat these damn things.

プロイセンの農民たちは

They are absolutely disgusting and they're good for nothing."

「こんなもの犬も食わない

There are even records of people being executed

マズいし何の役にも立たない」

for refusing to grow potatoes.

ジャガイモ栽培を拒否して

So he tried plan B.

処刑された農民もいたようです

He tried the marketing solution, which is he declared the potato

大帝の次の案は

as a royal vegetable, and none but the royal family could consume it.

ジャガイモを王室の野菜とし

And he planted it in a royal potato patch,

王族しか食べられないという位置づけをすることでした

with guards who had instructions

ジャガイモを王家の畑で育て

to guard over it, night and day,

見張り番は 昼夜を問わず

but with secret instructions not to guard it very well.

畑を守り しかし

(Laughter)

見張りすぎぬよう命じられました

Now, 18th century peasants know that there is one

（笑）

pretty safe rule in life, which is if something is worth guarding,

18世紀の農民たちにとって

it's worth stealing.

間違いないルールと言えば

Before long, there was a massive underground

「見張るのは盗む価値がある証拠」で

potato-growing operation in Germany.

すぐにドイツで大規模な

What he'd effectively done is he'd re-branded the potato.

ジャガイモの闇栽培が始まります

It was an absolute masterpiece.

大帝はジャガイモのブランド再生をしたのです

I told this story and a gentleman from Turkey came up to me and said,

まさに最高傑作でした

"Very, very good marketer, Fredrick the Great. But not a patch on Ataturk."

この話をすると あるトルコ人男性が

Ataturk, rather like Nicolas Sarkozy,

「素晴らしいマーケティングですが アタチュルクには及びませんね」と言いました

was very keen to discourage the wearing of a veil,

二コラ・サルコジのように アタチュルクは

in Turkey, to modernize it.

ベールの着用を禁止し

Now, boring people would have just simply banned the veil.

トルコを近代化させようとしました

But that would have ended up with a lot of awful kickback

芸がない人なら単にベールを禁止したところですが

and a hell of a lot of resistance.

それでは非常に多くの反発に遭い

Ataturk was a lateral thinker.

大変な抵抗があったでしょう

He made it compulsory for prostitutes to wear the veil.

発想が自由なアタチュルクは

(Laughter)

売春婦にベールの着用を義務付けたのです

(Applause)

（笑）

I can't verify that fully, but it does not matter.

（拍手）

There is your environmental problem solved, by the way, guys:

これが本当かはさておき―

All convicted child molesters

環境問題もこれで解決です

have to drive a Porsche Cayenne.

子どもへの性的虐待者は

(Laughter)

ポルシェに乗らねばならない

What Ataturk realized actually is two very fundamental things.

（笑）

Which is that, actually, first one,

アタチュルクは２つの根本的なことに気がつきました

all value is actually relative.

第一に

All value is perceived value.

全ての価値は相対的であり

For those of you who don't speak Spanish, jugo de naranja -- it's actually the Spanish for "orange juice."

知覚による価値であること

Because actually it's not the dollar. It's actually the peso

この看板の下はスペイン語表示です

in Buenos Aires. Very clever Buenos Aires street vendors

ドル表示は実際ペソですが

decided to practice price discrimination

ブエノスアイレスの賢い露天商たちは

to the detriment of any passing gringo tourists.

英米人観光客に不利な

As an advertising man, I have to admire that.

価格差別をする事にしました

But the first thing is that all value is subjective.

広告マンとして称賛します

Second point is that persuasion is often better than compulsion.

この話が示すのは 全ての価値は主観的だという事です

These funny signs that flash your speed at you,

二点目は 義務付けより説得が効果的であること

some of the new ones, on the bottom right,

点滅式の速度表示器でも

now actually show a smiley face or a frowny face,

右下のような新しいタイプは

to act as an emotional trigger.

笑顔としかめ面で

What's fascinating about these signs is they cost about 10 percent

感情に訴えかけます

of the running cost of a conventional speed camera,

この表示器の素晴らしい点は

but they prevent twice as many accidents.

維持費が速度違反カメラより10％安いのに

So, the bizarre thing, which is baffling

事故を２倍防止できることです

to conventional, classically trained economists,

従来の古典派経済学者を

is that a weird little smiley face

困惑させるおかしな話は

has a better effect on changing your behavior

この変な笑顔の表示が

than the threat of a £60 fine and three penalty points.

皆さんの行動を変えるのに

Tiny little behavioral economics detail:

60ポンドの罰金と３点の罰則より効果がある事なのです

in Italy, penalty points go backwards.

行動経済学の話を少し―

You start with 12 and they take them away.

イタリアでは罰則は 減点方式で

Because they found that loss aversion

12点から引かれていきます

is a more powerful influence on people's behavior.

損失回避の方が人の言動に

In Britain we tend to feel, "Whoa! Got another three!"

強い影響を与えるからです

Not so in Italy.

イギリスでは「また３点もらっちゃった」が

Another fantastic case of creating intangible value

イタリアではそうはいかない

to replace actual or material value, which remember, is what,

無形価値が時価や物的価値の代わりになる

after all, the environmental movement needs to be about:

素晴らしい例をもう１つ―

This again is from Prussia, from, I think, about 1812, 1813.

これは環境保護の目指すところです

The wealthy Prussians, to help in the war against the French,

これもプロイセンの話で1812か13年頃

were encouraged to give in all their jewelry.

フランスとの戦争を支援するために

And it was replaced with replica jewelry

裕福な者は宝飾品を献上し

made of cast iron.

代わりに鋳鉄製の複製品が

Here's one: "Gold gab ich für Eisen, 1813."

渡されました

The interesting thing is that for 50 years hence,

この例では「金を捧げ 鉄を授かった」と彫られています

the highest status jewelry you could wear in Prussia

興味深い事に その後50年間

wasn't made of gold or diamonds.

プロイセンで地位を誇示できるのは

It was made of cast iron.

金やダイヤではなく

Because actually, never mind the actual intrinsic value

鋳鉄製の宝飾品でした

of having gold jewelry. This actually

金の宝飾品を所有する

had symbolic value, badge value.

本質的な価値より これらには

It said that your family had made a great sacrifice in the past.

象徴的 ブランド価値があり

So, the modern equivalent would of course be this.

家族が過去に大きな犠牲を払った証拠なのです

(Laughter)

現代ではこんな感じです

But, actually, there is a thing, just as there are Veblen goods,

（笑）

where the value of the good depends on it being expensive and rare --

しかし 高価でレアであるほど

there are opposite kind of things

価値が上がる効果があるものもあれば

where actually the value in them depends on them being

その逆に

ubiquitous, classless and minimalistic.

至る所にあり 階級がなく

If you think about it, Shakerism was a proto-environmental movement.

最小主義である事に 価値がある場合もあります

Adam Smith talks about 18th century America,

よく考えると シェイカー教は環境保護の原型でした

where the prohibition against visible displays of wealth was so great,

アダム・スミスによれば 18世紀の米国では

it was almost a block in the economy in New England,

富の誇示が厳しく禁じられていたため ニューイングランドの

because even wealthy farmers could find nothing to spend their money on

経済を妨げかねなかったといいます

without incurring the displeasure of their neighbors.

裕福な農民でも隣人の不満を招かない

It's perfectly possible to create these social pressures

お金の使い道がなかったからです

which lead to more egalitarian societies.

社会的圧力を生み出し

What's also interesting, if you look at products

もっと平等主義な社会にするのは全く可能です

that have a high component

もう１つ興味深いのは

of what you might call messaging value,

メッセージ価値とも言える

a high component of intangible value, versus their intrinsic value:

無形価値を

They are often quite egalitarian.

本質的価値よりも持つ製品は多くの場合

In terms of dress, denim is perhaps the perfect example of something

かなり平等主義的であるという事です

which replaces material value with symbolic value.

象徴価値が物質価値に取って代わる良い例は

Coca-Cola. A bunch of you may be a load of pinkos,

衣服で言うと おそらくデニムでしょう

and you may not like the Coca-Cola company,

皆さんの多くは左翼的で

but it's worth remembering Andy Warhol's point about Coke.

コカコーラ社を好きではないかもしれません

What Warhol said about Coke is, he said,

しかしアンディ・ウォーホールの

"What I really like about Coca-Cola is the president of the United States

コメントは念頭に置くべきです

can't get a better Coke than the bum on the corner of the street."

「アメリカ大統領もホームレスでも

Now, that is, actually, when you think about it -- we take it for granted --

飲むコーラは同じというのがいいんだ」

it's actually a remarkable achievement,

当たり前と思うでしょうが

to produce something that's that democratic.

これほど民主的なものを

Now, we basically have to change our views slightly.

作ったのは素晴らしい功績です

There is a basic view that real value involves making things,

ですから少し観点を変える必要があります

involves labor. It involves engineering.

本物の価値は製造 労働 工学を伴い

It involves limited raw materials.

有限の素材を使う事だという

And that what we add on top is kind of false. It's a fake version.

基本的な考えがあり

And there is a reason for some suspicion and uncertainly about it.

付加価値等は見せかけでごまかしだと言います

It patently veers toward propaganda.

疑うのももっともです

However, what we do have now

明らかに宣伝に見えますから

is a much more variegated media ecosystem

しかし現在はメディアも多様化し

in which to kind of create this kind of value, and it's much fairer.

付加価値を付けるのも容易になり

When I grew up, this was basically the media environment of my childhood

もっと公平になりました

as translated into food.

私の子ども時代のメディア環境を

You had a monopoly supplier. On the left,

食べ物で表現してみました

you have Rupert Murdoch, or the BBC.

左側は独占販売者で

(Laughter)

メディア王ルパート・マードックかBBCだけ

And on your right you have a dependent public

（笑）

which is pathetically grateful for anything you give it.

右側は与えられたもの何にでも感謝する

(Laughter)

メディア会社に頼る大衆です

Nowadays, the user is actually involved.

（笑）

This is actually what's called, in the digital world, "user-generated content."

現在は利用者も参加しており

Although it's called agriculture in the world of food.

デジタル世界では「ユーザー作成型コンテンツ」

(Laughter)

食の世界では「農業」と呼ばれます

This is actually called a mash-up,

（笑）

where you take content that someone else has produced

これは「マッシュアップ」と呼ばれます

and you do something new with it.

誰かのコンテンツで

In the world of food we call it cooking.