Name: "これが私がする最後の大変なことかもしれない"| 記事へ｜コメント(2)｜｜ビル・ゲイツと私を解きほぐす (“This might be the last hard thing I ever do” | Unconfuse Me with Bill Gates)
Uploaded: 2024-01-22T04:30:19.000Z
Duration: 6 min 10 s

To me, if you do get to the incredible capability, you know, a giag, I plus, I guess I'd, you know, there's three things I worry about.

One is that a bad guy is in control of the system.

And so we have good guys who have equally powerful systems that hopefully minimizes that problem.

私が心配していることは3つある。

There's the chance of the system taking control.

ひとつは、悪者がシステムをコントロールしているということだ。

And for some reason, I'm, I'm less concerned about that.

I'm glad other people are the one that, that sort of befuddles me as human purpose.

同じように強力なシステムを持っている人たち

I get a lot of excitement that, hey, I'm good at working on malaria and malaria eradication and getting smart people and a primary source to that.

うまくいけば、この問題を最小限に抑えることができる。

When the machine says to me, Bill, go play pickleball.

システムに支配される可能性もある。

ある理由から、その心配はあまりしていない。

If you're just a slow thinker, then, you know, it is a philosophically confusing thing and how you organize society.

他の人たちがそうであることをうれしく思う。

私を困惑させているのは、人間の目的だ。

But education to do what if, if you get to this extreme, which we still have a big uncertainty.

But for the first time, the chance that might come in the next 20 years is, is not zero.

私はマラリアに取り組むのが得意なんだ、

There's a lot of psychologically difficult parts of working on the technology.

But this is the for me the most difficult because I also get from that.

And it's like in some real sense, this might be like the last hard thing I ever do.

そのためにリソースを投入する。

Well, our, our minds are so organized around scarcity, scarcity of teachers and doctors and good ideas that partly, I do wonder if a generation that grows up without that scarcity will find the philosophical notion of how to organize society and what to do.

「ビル、ピックルボールでもやってろ。

And I, I'm afraid my mind is so shaped around scarcity.

君は考えるのが遅いだけだ」。

I, I even have a hard time thinking of it.

となると、哲学的に混乱することになる。

社会をどのように組織するのか？

And what I truly believe that that although we are giving something up here in some sense, you know, we are going to have things that are smarter than us.

そう、私たちは教育を改善するつもりだ、

If we can get into this world of post scarcity, we will find new things to do.

しかし、ここまで極端になると、何をするための教育なのか、

これはまだ大きな不確定要素である。

You know, maybe instead of solving malaria, you're deciding which galaxy you'd like and how, what you're going to do with it.

初めて、チャンスが訪れるかもしれない。

I'm confident we're never going to run out of problems and we're never going to run out of different ways to find fulfillment and do things for each other and sort of understand how we play our human games for other humans in this way that's going to remain really important.

心理的に難しい部分がたくさんある

But I think the only way out is through, we just have to go do this thing.

でも、僕にとってはこれが一番難しい、

This is like now an unstoppable technological course, the value is too great and I'm pretty confident, very confident we'll make it work, but it does feel like it's gonna all be so different the way to apply this to certain current problems.

というのも、私もそこから多くの満足感を得ているからだ。

Like, you know, getting kids to tutor and helping to motivate them or discover drugs for Alzheimer's.

あなたには本当の付加価値がある。

No, I think it's, it's pretty clear how to do that.

Whether A I can help us, you know, go to war less, be less polarized.

これが私が最後にするつらいことかもしれない。

You think it should drive intelligence and, you know, not being polarized, kind of is common sense and not having more as common sense.

私たちの心は欠乏を中心に組織化されている；

But I do think that's an, a lot of people would be skeptical.

教師不足、医師不足、優れたアイデア不足

So I'd love to have people working on the hardest human problems.

そのこともあるが、ある世代が

Uh like whether we get along with each other, you know, I think that would be extremely positive if we thought the A I could contribute to humans getting along with each other.

I believe that it will surprise us on the upside there.

という哲学的概念を見出すだろう。

The technology will surprise us with how much it can do.

社会をどのように組織し、何をすべきかの。

もしかしたら、解決策が見つかるかもしれない。

But I'm very optimistic and I agree with you what a contribution would that be in terms of equity?

私のマインドは欠乏を中心に形作られているようだ、

Technology is often expensive, like a PC or internet connection and it takes time to come down in cost, I guess the costs of running these A I systems, it looks pretty good that the cost per evaluation is going to come down a lot.

私はそれを考えることさえ難しい。

It's come down an enormous amount already.

私もそう自分に言い聞かせている、

Uh GP T three, which is the model we've had out the longest and the most time to optimize in the three years.

私たちはここで何かを放棄している、

We've been able to bring the cost down by I think a factor of 40.

So for three years time, that's like that's a pretty good start for uh 3.5 we've brought it down.

もし私たちがこのポスト欠乏の世界に入ることができれば、

I would bet close to 10 at this 0.4 is newer.

私たちは新しいことを見つけるだろう。

So we haven't had as much time to bring the cost down there, but we, we will continue to bring the cost down.

彼らはまったく違うことを感じるだろう。

I think we are on the steepest curve of cost reduction of ever of any technology.

マラリアを解決する代わりにね

どの銀河系が好きか決めているところでしょう、

And it's not only that we figure out how to make the models more efficient, but also as we understand the research better, we can get more knowledge, we can get more ability into a smaller model.

そしてそれをどうするつもりなのか。

And so I think we are going to drive the cost of intelligence down to so close to zero that it will be just this before and after transformation for society.

私は、私たちがこのような事態に陥ることはないと確信している。

Like right now, my my basic model of the world is cost of intelligence, cost of energy.

Those are the two kind of biggest inputs to like quality of life, particularly for poor people.

充実感を得るためのさまざまな方法がなくなる

But overall, if you can drive both of those way down, at the same time, the amount of stuff you can have the amount of like improvement you can, you can deliver for people.

お互いのために行動し、理解し合う

It's quite enormous and we are on a curve, at least for intelligence, we will really, really deliver on that promise.

人間同士の駆け引きをどうするか

But even at the current cost, which again, this is the highest it will ever be and much more than we want for 20 bucks a month, you get a lot of GP T four access and way more than 20 bucks worth of value.

このような形で、今後も本当に重要であり続けるだろう。

 So I think we're already like, we've come down pretty far, subscribe to un confused me wherever you listen to podcasts. 

確かに違うものになるだろう、