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  • So this is Genoa, and Genoa is our latest data

  • center server processor.

  • It's actually 13 chips on one package.

  • At the heart of all the most advanced computers,

  • data centers and gaming consoles there are two

  • kinds of processors.

  • You know, we're in a world today where chips are

  • everywhere. They're powering everything.

  • And only one company in the world designs them

  • both at scale: Advanced Micro Devices or AMD.

  • It's known for computing, but now it's branching

  • out. Its chips are inside Teslas, the Mars land

  • rover, 5G cell towers and the world's fastest

  • supercomputer.

  • They used to be sort of under the covers.

  • People didn't realize that chips were so

  • important. And I think what the pandemic has done

  • is it's just reminded people.

  • And it really highlighted why chips are so enabling

  • to everything that we do.

  • AMD only has major competition from two other

  • companies when it comes to designing the most

  • advanced microprocessors: Intel in CPUs, central

  • processing units, and NVIDIA in GPUs, graphics

  • processing units.

  • While AMD controls far less market share than

  • Intel in CPUs and NVIDIA in GPUs, AMD made history

  • this year when it surpassed Intel's massive

  • market cap for the first time ever.

  • I think AMD is beating Intel on all the metrics

  • that matter. And unless Intel can fix its

  • manufacturing, they will continue to do that.

  • But a decade ago, analysts had a very different

  • outlook on AMD.

  • It was almost a joke.

  • For decades they had these incredible

  • performance problems. They just could not

  • execute. Every product was late or

  • underperforming. And that's changed.

  • This is the story of AMD, its remarkable comeback,

  • pioneering female CEO and huge bets on new types of

  • chips in the face of a PC slump, shifting trends and

  • mounting concerns around China and Taiwan, where

  • all AMD's advanced chips are made.

  • AMD is woven into the origin story of

  • microchips. It was founded in 1969 by eight

  • men, chief among them Jerry Sanders.

  • The famously colorful marketing exec had

  • recently left Fairchild Semiconductor, which

  • shares credit for the invention of the

  • integrated circuit.

  • Jerry Sanders was this big, larger-than-life guy.

  • He was a salesman at his heart, but he was one of

  • the best salesmen that Silicon Valley had ever

  • seen. Stories of lavish parties that they would

  • throw. And like there's one story about him and

  • his wife coming down the stairs of the turret at

  • the party in matching fur coats.

  • Jerry Sanders, at the time, a lot of his

  • philosophy was kind of new, novel.

  • Things like bonuses and profit sharing.

  • Those were not just for the executives.

  • AMD released its first product in 1970, went

  • public in 1972 and was pumping out computer chips

  • by the mid seventies.

  • It was a second source supplier for Intel by the

  • eighties, when Harry Levinson began his 20 plus

  • years with AMD.

  • When I first got there, most people didn't know

  • about semiconductor devices.

  • In the mid eighties, AMD and Intel parted ways.

  • And by the late eighties and early nineties, AMD

  • reverse engineered Intel's chips to make its

  • own products that were compatible with Intel's

  • groundbreaking x86 software, making PC

  • pricing more competitive for end consumers.

  • When we really got going in the x86, there was a

  • revolution.

  • AMD and Intel entered a long legal battle over the

  • intellectual rights to the x86 processor.

  • It culminated in a settlement in 1995 after

  • the California Supreme Court ruled in favor of

  • AMD's right to design x86 chips.

  • From there, AMD became a major player in semis,

  • racing Intel to become first to produce a 1-GHz

  • processor and making the first 1-teraflop GPU,

  • meaning it can handle a trillion calculations

  • every second.

  • For almost all its 53 years, AMD has been

  • designing chips for computers, data centers

  • and gaming consoles like the PS5 and latest Xbox.

  • But under CEO Lisa Su, it's branched out into

  • whole new sectors.

  • We're in the Tesla models S and X.

  • We're also in many industrial applications,

  • aerospace and defense applications, health care

  • applications.

  • Until just over a decade ago, AMD wasn't just

  • designing these chips, it was making them too.

  • Jerry Sanders was very famous for saying "real

  • men have fabs," which obviously is a comment

  • that is problematic on a number of levels and I

  • think has largely been disproven by history.

  • That's because as the technology advances,

  • making chips has gotten prohibitively expensive.

  • It now takes billions of dollars and several years

  • to build a chip fab.

  • And eventually it proved too much.

  • And when the financial crisis hit like '08, '09

  • AMD almost went bankrupt.

  • In 2006, AMD bought major fabless chip company ATI

  • for $5.4 billion.

  • Then in 2009, AMD broke off its manufacturing arm

  • altogether, forming GlobalFoundries.

  • That's when their execution really started

  • to take off because they no longer had to worry

  • about the foundry side of things.

  • GlobalFoundries went public in 2021 and remains

  • a top maker of the less advanced chips found in

  • simpler components like a car's anti-lock brakes or

  • heads-up display. But it stopped making leading

  • edge chips in 2018.

  • Unfortunately, the execution was not

  • sufficient at GlobalFoundries for that

  • relationship to be sustained.

  • Instead, AMD turned to Taiwan Semiconductor

  • Manufacturing Company, TSMC, the first chip

  • company to focus entirely on manufacturing.

  • Today, TSMC manufactures at least 90% of the

  • world's most advanced chips and all of AMD's.

  • When you think about what do you need to do to be

  • world class in design, it's a certain set of

  • skills. And then what do you need to do to be world

  • class in manufacturing, it's a different set of

  • skills. And the business model is different.

  • The capital model is different.

  • By breaking away from manufacturing, AMD

  • suddenly had far less capital expenditure.

  • Making chips has gotten so expensive because of

  • how precise the process is.

  • Now that the smallest transistors are 10,000

  • times thinner than a human hair.

  • To make leading-edge chips, 7-nanometer and

  • better, requires an advanced form of

  • lithography called EUV.

  • Think of it like extreme precision etching done

  • with a beam of extreme ultraviolet light by a

  • machine that costs $200 million made by ASML in

  • the Netherlands.

  • We are the only provider on the planet of this

  • critical technology.

  • TSMC was the first to deliver high volume chips

  • made with ASML's EUV machines, and that's kept

  • it at the front of the pack. But now Intel has

  • doubled down on manufacturing, producing

  • its first chips with EUV this year and committing

  • $20 billion for new fabs in Arizona and up to $100

  • billion in Ohio for what it says will be the

  • world's largest chip making complex.

  • But the projects are still years away from

  • coming online.

  • Intel is just not moving forward fast enough.

  • They've said they expect to continue to lose share

  • next year, and I think we'll see that on the

  • client side. And that's helped out AMD

  • tremendously on the data center side.

  • Many point to AMD's Zen line of CPUs, first

  • released in 2017 as the moment AMD started to

  • catch Intel.

  • This is a little hard, I'm sure, to choose among your

  • babies, but do you have a favorite product?

  • That's very hard. But if I had to choose a product or

  • something that was really transformational for the

  • company, I would say our first Zen processor.

  • I mean, they were literally probably six

  • months away from the edge and somehow they pulled

  • out of it. I mean, they have this Hail Mary on

  • this new product design.

  • They're still selling like later generations of

  • today. They call it Zen.

  • And it worked.

  • It had a massively improved performance.

  • It enabled them to stem the share losses and

  • ultimately turn them around.

  • Among the Zen products, AMD's epic family of CPUs

  • have made monumental leaps on the data center

  • side. Its latest, Genoa, was released earlier this

  • month. AMD's data center customers include Amazon

  • AWS, Google Cloud, Oracle, IBM and Microsoft

  • Azure.

  • And what it does is it's a very, very high

  • performance capability that goes into, you know,

  • think about it in cloud servers or in your

  • enterprise back end.

  • AMD's success at catching up to Intel's

  • technological advances is something many attribute

  • to Lisa Su, who took over as CEO in 2014.

  • When I started as CEO, we were probably about 8000

  • people and this year we're about 25,000.

  • So we have a few more people than we used to.

  • Su is the first female CEO of a major semiconductor

  • company. She was Fortune's number two

  • businessperson of the year in 2020 and the

  • recipient of three of the semi industry's top

  • honors. Su also serves on President Biden's council

  • of advisors on science and technology, which

  • pushed hard for the recent passage of the

  • CHIPS Act. It sets aside $52 billion for U.S.

  • companies to manufacture chips domestically instead

  • of overseas.

  • I was honored enough to actually be at the signing

  • ceremony. And when you think about sort of the

  • Chips and Science Act overall, I think it's a

  • recognition of just how important semiconductors

  • are to both sort of the economic prosperity as

  • well as national security in the United States.

  • With all of the world's most advanced

  • semiconductors currently made in Asia, the chip

  • shortage highlighted the problems of overseas

  • dependency.

  • And then there's the continued tension between

  • China and Taiwan.

  • I think we are all vulnerable to

  • semiconductor supply chain's reliance on TSMC.

  • If we get to the point where TSMC is cut off, if

  • we are cut off from TSMC, we all have bigger

  • problems to worry about than getting the latest

  • graphics cards.

  • So now TSMC is building a $12 billion five nanometer

  • chip fab outside Phoenix.

  • We're pleased with the expansion in Arizona.

  • We think that's a great thing and we'd like to see

  • it expand even more.

  • And earlier this month, the Biden administration

  • enacted big new bans on semiconductor exports to

  • China.

  • China has become more aggressive in what they

  • call their military civil fusion strategy, which is

  • essentially fancy talk for buying our

  • sophisticated chips, which are supposedly for

  • commercial purposes, and putting them into military

  • equipment to advance their military.

  • AMD has about 3000 employees in China, and

  • 25% of its sales were to China last year.

  • When we look at the most recent regulations,

  • they're not significantly impacting our business.

  • It does affect some of our highest end chips that

  • are used in sort of AI applications.

  • And we were not selling those into China.

  • So overall, I would say the revenue impact has

  • been very small.

  • Something that is impacting AMD's revenue,

  • at least for now, is the PC slump.

  • During the pandemic, we pulled demand forward.

  • People just were at home and so we all upgraded our

  • computers and our gear and now nobody's doing

  • that again. We're all going back to work and

  • using work computers. W e're not buying new ones

  • at the same pace. And so we're just correcting for

  • that.

  • In Q3 earnings reported earlier this month, AMD

  • missed expectations shortly after Intel warned

  • of a soft fourth quarter coming up.

  • PC shipments were down nearly 20% in Q3, the

  • steepest decline in more than 20 years.

  • It's down, which might have been as expected, but

  • it's down a bit more than perhaps we expected.

  • There is a cycle of correction which happens

  • from time to time, but we're very focused on the

  • long term roadmap.

  • And it's not just PC sales that are slowing.

  • Many say the very core of computer chip technology

  • advancement is slowing down. An industry rule

  • called Moore's Law used to dictate that the number

  • of resistors on a chip would double about every

  • two years.

  • The process that we call Moore's Law still has at

  • least another decade to go. But there's

  • definitely, it's slowing down.

  • Everybody sort of used CPUs for everything, just

  • general purpose compute.

  • But that's all slowed down. And so now it's

  • something that makes sense to do more

  • customized solutions.

  • That's why in February, AMD closed on one of the

  • biggest acquisitions in semiconductor history.

  • $49 billion for Xilinx, known for its

  • reprogrammable adaptive chips called

  • Field-Programmable Gate Arrays, or FPGAs.

  • FPGAs are in robotics, they're in wireless base

  • stations that place your cell phone, they're in

  • cars and smart cameras or in the Mars land rover,

  • the Perseverance. We're in satellites in space, we're

  • in avionics, we're in medical systems, robotic

  • surgery, we're in agricultural equipment.

  • So very, very diverse.

  • Former Xilinx CEO Victor Peng has been in the

  • silicon industry for 40 years, including two

  • stints at AMD, where he now runs embedded

  • computing.

  • So this is for creating a very smart camera.

  • It can be changed from a hardware perspective.

  • It could also be changed from software because it's

  • got both.

  • An estimated 20% of AMD's revenue in 2022 will come

  • from FPGAs, with 72% from CPUs and 8% from GPUs.

  • AMD is also king in gaming processors.

  • While Intel controls more than 70% of the CPU market

  • and NVIDIA controls 87% of GPUs, it's AMD that

  • designs 83% of gaming console processors.

  • And as more and more changes come to the

  • semiconductor industry, Su says it's all about

  • being willing to reassess.

  • If you looked at our business five years ago,

  • we were probably more than 80%, 90% in the

  • consumer markets and very PC-centric and

  • gaming-centric. And as I thought about what we

  • wanted for the strategy of the company, we

  • believed that for high performance computing,

  • really the data center was the most strategic

  • piece of the business.

  • Earlier this year, AMD acquired data center

  • optimization startup Pensando for $1.9 billion.

  • I mean, we can quibble about some of the prices

  • they paid for some of these things and what the

  • returns will look like.

  • But building a custom compute business to help

  • their customers design their own chips, it's a

  • smart strategy.

  • That's because more and more big companies are

  • designing specialized chips just for their

  • purposes. Amazon has its own Graviton processors

  • for AWS.

  • Google designs its own AI chips for the Pixel phone

  • and a specific video chip for YouTube.

  • Even John Deere is coming out with its own chips for

  • autonomous tractors.

  • How does it feel to have some of your customers

  • become competitors in a sense?

  • Well, if you really look underneath what's

  • happening in the chip industry over the last

  • five years is everybody needs more chips and you

  • see them everywhere, right? Particularly the

  • growth of the cloud has been such a key trend over

  • the last five years.

  • And what that means is when you have very high

  • volume growth in chips, you do want to do more

  • customization.

  • Even basic chip architecture is at a

  • transition point. AMD and Intel chips are based on

  • the five decade old x86 architecture.

  • Now ARM architecture chips are growing in

  • popularity, with companies like NVIDIA and

  • Ampere making major promises about developing

  • ARM CPUs and Apple switching from Intel to

  • self-designed ARM processors.

  • My view is it's really not a debate between x86 and

  • ARM. You're going to see basically these two are

  • the most important architectures out there in

  • the market. And what we've seen is it's really

  • about what you do with the compute.

  • For now, AMD continues to advance its x86 core

  • computing chips while diversifying to meet the

  • needs of the ever-shifting and

  • vulnerable business of advanced semiconductors.

  • You really have to make big bets and kind of see

  • the future. What's going to happen over the next 3

  • to 5 years? What are the things that are going to

  • change? And then how do we uniquely capture those

  • opportunities to bring technology that nobody

  • else could do to the market?

So this is Genoa, and Genoa is our latest data

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How Chip Giant AMD Finally Caught Intel

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    Joy Hsu に公開 2023 年 05 月 07 日
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