Name: 中国のゼロCOVID政策、経済に深く食い込む｜DWビジネス (China's zero-COVID policy bites deep into economy | DW Business)
Uploaded: 2022-05-18T10:50:10.000Z
Duration: 4 min 32 s

retail sales and factory output in china slumped to two year lows in april while unemployment climbed to two year highs, the new figures show the growing economic damage wrought by the country's ongoing covid 19 lockdowns, retail sales in china falling more than 11% for the month.

中国の4月の小売売上高と工場生産高は2年ぶりの低水準に落ち込み、失業率は2年ぶりの高水準に上昇した。新しい数字は、中国で進行中のCovid 19のロックダウンがもたらす経済的ダメージの拡大を示しており、中国の小売売上高は月間で11％以上減少している。

過去形

That's year on year, A drop last seen at the outbreak of the pandemic Industrial production meanwhile, fell about 3%, unemployment reached more than 6% in urban areas.

工業生産は約3％減少し、失業率は都市部で6％以上となりました。

最上級形容詞

Dozens of chinese cities remain in tight lockdown, including the world's largest ports city, Shanghai.

世界最大の港湾都市である上海をはじめ、中国の数十の都市が依然として厳重に封鎖されています。

Alright, My colleague Clifford Coonan joins me in studio for more Clifford.

さて、同僚のクリフォード・クーナンがスタジオに参加してくれています。

How unexpected or expected were these numbers?

この数字がどの程度予想外だったのか、あるいは予想通りだったのか。

Well, they're they're certainly surprising and they're worse than the forecasts had had had predicted.

まあ、確かに驚くべきことで、予測されていたよりも悪化していますね。

But at the same time, what's really surprising, I think is just the extent, you know, the depth of the slowdown.

しかし同時に、本当に驚くべきことは、減速の程度とその深さだと思います。

It was obviously um partially because of, largely because of the lockdown in the in the major cities, but it's hit retail sales which were which the government has long relied on to prop up the economy.

主要都市が封鎖されたことが大きな原因ですが、政府が景気浮揚のために長い間頼りにしてきた小売売上高に打撃を与えました。

Things like passenger car sales are down 47%.

乗用車の販売台数などは47％減少しています。

And then, and that sort of feeds into other areas, for example, you know, the passenger car sales falling so much that accounts for so many jobs.

そして、それが他の分野、例えば乗用車の販売台数が大幅に減少し、多くの雇用を生み出していることにもつながっています。

So we have this problem with unemployment as well rising and the figures are the worst in two years.

そのため、失業率も上昇しており、この2年間で最悪の数字となっています。

But when you think about it two years ago was also pandemic related, You know, So really these are these are the worst in in, in since they've been records in china particularly cause unemployment data is quite recent in china.

しかし、2年前もパンデミックに関連していたことを考えると、これらは本当に、中国での記録以来最悪のものです。

So we're looking at all sectors of the economy struggling from this and it's it's prompting a lot of questions about the depth of the economy.

このため、経済のあらゆる部門が苦境に立たされており、経済の底力について多くの疑問が投げかけられています。

One of the questions is prompting is what does it mean for Western business?

そのひとつが、欧米のビジネスにとってどのような意味を持つのか、という問いかけです。

So many of them, you know, relying on cities like Shenzhen shanghai to either manufacturer to ship to both.

そのため、多くの企業が深圳や上海などの都市に依存して、どちらかのメーカーから両方のメーカーに出荷しているんですね。

つまり、彼らにとってはどうなのか？

Are they reconsidering what they're doing in china?

中国での活動を見直されているのでしょうか？

I mean, I'll give an example, there's a lot of there's a lot of foreign teachers in china for example, and one of the headmasters of one of the most prominent of foreign schools in in china just left.

例えば、中国には多くの外国人教師がいますが、中国で最も有名な外国人学校の校長の一人が辞めたばかりなんです。

He didn't with without saying anything because he didn't think he'd be able to get out.

出てこれないと思ったから、何も言わずにwithしなかったんだろう。

The lockdown has had a huge impact on people and it's caused quite a scandal in china.

このロックダウンは人々に大きな影響を与え、中国ではかなりのスキャンダルを引き起こしている。

And it's not unusual a lot of people, foreigners working in china now are worried because the level of micromanagement that's going on with the lockdown is incredible.

また、中国で働く外国人の多くが、ロックダウンの微視的管理レベルが信じられないほどであるため、心配していることも珍しくありません。

And it means that if you're trying to hire hire foreigners and china still needs foreign talent to keep keep economic growth going.

そして、外国人を雇おうとしている場合、中国は経済成長を維持するために依然として外国人人材を必要としているということです。

It's becoming a real challenge means the government's almost more inscrutable in some ways, you don't know when the lockdown is coming.

つまり、いつロックダウンが起こるかわからないということです。

You don't know if you're going to be able to move around and do business.

動き回ってビジネスができるかどうかわからない。

Exactly, and it shows up, I mean, I think in some ways this is xi Jinping's Churchill moment, he's treating it like a um like a war on covid standing his ground.

そのとおりで、これはある意味で習近平の「チャーチル」の瞬間であり、彼はこれを、自分の立場を守るための戦争と同じように扱っています。

Exactly, and which means he's been very, very rigid and the level of micromanagement is incredible, people, you know, every three days you get a knock on the door and you're forced to take a test, you know, and this is, this is proving a real problem.

その通りです。つまり、彼は非常に厳格で、マイクロマネジメントのレベルが信じられないほど高く、人々は、ほら、3日ごとにドアをノックされて、テストを受けることを強制されます。

And what's the domestic support for that line though within china, I mean, is there disagreement with this hard, hard line when you're seeing the economic numbers just plummet like this?

中国国内では、この路線にどのような支持があるのでしょうか。つまり、経済指標がこのように急落しているのに、この強硬路線に異論があるのでしょうか。

Well, I think this is going to be the factor, it's going to really hit support for the government because they're thinking because because a microphone isn't as bad as the other variants, there's increasingly a lot of dissatisfaction about this and there's a lot of censorship on, on trying to stop it.

マイクは他の変種ほど悪くないからということで、政府への支持に打撃を与えることになると思います。

Is this a phase when we look at omicron and and we know the pandemic isn't necessarily a phase, but does Beijing see this perhaps the phase, once they get through this, they'll just turn the economy back on.

オミクロンを見ていると、パンデミックは必ずしもフェーズではないのですが、北京はこれをフェーズと見ているのでしょうか、これを乗り切ったら、経済を元に戻すだけだと。

Yeah, this is, I think there is a feeling that you can turn it on and off and this is gonna be obviously a test of that, I think to a certain extent they can, you know, because foreign companies are still deeply embedded there, you know, with the supply chain, they're not going to be in Vietnam or Exactly, they these countries just don't have the infrastructure that china has, they don't have the scale that china has and India isn't there yet another possibility?

外国企業はまだ現地に深く根付いていますし、サプライチェーンもありますから、ベトナムやそのような国には行かないでしょう。

So I think people are still going to be in china, but I think I think that thinking about china has changed even in Germany where which is always which is very very involved, heavily invested in china is also now looking at things like we saw Volkswagen recently is looking quite closely at the United States America.

しかし、ドイツでも中国に対する考え方が変わってきていると思います。

You know, so people are thinking it's less there's less of a sort of a focus on china that there was so ultimately they will the economy will come back but maybe in a different way.

つまり、中国に対するフォーカスが薄れ、最終的には経済が回復すると考えているのですが、おそらく違った形で回復するでしょう。

 Businesses, Clifford Coonan, thank you very much. 

ビジネス、クリフォード・クーナン、ありがとうございました。

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中国のゼロCOVID政策、経済に深く食い込む｜DWビジネス (China's zero-COVID policy bites deep into economy | DW Business)

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