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  • Well, there's no reason to believe that

  • things in Ukraine are going to get any

  • better.

  • If you turn on CNBC, you'll probably

  • hear something like this:

  • indicator that the market doesn't know

  • which direction to move on this and I

  • wouldn't be selling at a time when the

  • VIX is at 30.

  • With sentiment index, the VIX, just

  • remember, in the peak of the pandemic,

  • we hit, you know, over 80 on the VIX,

  • The volatility index, also known as the

  • VIX, or even Wall Street's fear gauge.

  • It's always been called the Fear Index.

  • It basically takes a read of the

  • market's blood pressure.

  • The VIX goes higher when investors are

  • scared, anxious, nervous and uncertain.

  • What is the risk? What's the fear?

  • What's the level of uncertainty or even

  • the level of stress that's in the

  • marketplace at a given time?

  • It's just a unique tool that we can

  • actually quantify that.

  • So, even though volatility seems

  • intangible, there's actually a way that

  • markets measure such turbulence and

  • sentiment. I mean, take a look at this

  • equation.

  • What does it mean for the market when

  • Russia invades Ukraine, right?

  • So you can see that in the VIX, and you

  • can see that in real time in the VIX.

  • And investors rely on it

  • When you understand how investors are

  • feeling about what's going on in the

  • world, you can then understand how the

  • market may move.

  • Here's how market volatility is measured

  • and how investors use that information

  • to make money.

  • Stock price changes are simply the

  • product of people buying and selling

  • stocks.

  • So volatility is just price movements

  • that are above normal variance.

  • The reason that the VIX index was

  • created was it was a way to measure

  • what institutional investors or the big

  • investors were doing to hedge their

  • bets, and if they were hedging that the

  • market was going to go down.

  • That was a sign that there was fear in

  • the marketplace

  • When the VIX was originally introduced

  • in 1993 by the Chicago Board Options

  • Exchange, it had a different

  • methodology based on calculations

  • around the S&P 100, and that old

  • measure still goes by the ticker symbol

  • VXO. But since 2003, the CBOE updated

  • the VIX to be based on the S&P 500.

  • Because the S&P 500 is this measure of

  • the broad market, the VIX is a measure

  • of the volatility of the broad U.S.

  • stock market.

  • Usually, there is an inverse

  • relationship between the activity

  • that's happening in the major index,

  • which is the S&P 500 and what's going

  • on the base. It's generally inverse.

  • The VIX is a forward looking index

  • measuring implied volatility.

  • As the CBOE puts it, the VIX index is

  • intended to provide an instantaneous

  • measure of how much the market expects

  • the S&P 500 index will fluctuate.

  • Within 30 days it measures to what

  • degree investors are uncertain about

  • the stock market.

  • The movements are really triggered by

  • major events.

  • If it's negative news, then sometimes

  • people get get a little bit scared.

  • That's why when we talk about the VIX,

  • we call it the Fear Index, or people

  • tend to really kind of want to move and

  • transition their assets out of more

  • riskier assets and into more safe

  • assets.

  • If you look at the VIX over the past few

  • years, you can see it spike when the

  • pandemic hit in March 2020, which was a

  • record, and then again in October 2020,

  • when infections spiked and stimulus

  • negotiations stalled, or in November

  • 2021 when Omicron swept the nation.

  • Then even more recently, when Russia

  • invaded Ukraine in February 2022

  • Overall uncertainty also spikes the VIX.

  • So when we see the VIX spiking and

  • getting higher in January and leading

  • in really the beginning of February,

  • that was primarily around this

  • uncertainty of the Fed and when they

  • were going to raise rates by how much

  • the pace, all of that kind of stuff.

  • There's a complex mathematical equation

  • at the core.

  • Basically, the VIX measures volatility

  • by tracking trading in S&P five hundred

  • options.

  • It's measuring implied volatility over

  • the next 30 days, and that's derived

  • from option activity.

  • So puts and call options are deriving

  • whether the VIX is above norm or below.

  • That's the catalyst for what sparks and

  • moves it in either direction.

  • Now, the options market makes this a

  • little tricky.

  • Options are just a hedge.

  • You don't own the stock outright, but

  • you're owning the option that's

  • tethered to the stock.

  • Let's say something happens in the

  • world. An event happens like the Fed's

  • uncertainty or Russia invading the

  • Ukraine, and investors believe that the

  • overall economy is not going to be more

  • positive in 30 days.

  • The options contracts that they are

  • buying, it's really betting on the

  • market going down.

  • Obviously, it can get far more

  • complicated from here, but just on a

  • very basic fundamental level, it's a

  • hedging opportunity.

  • What options contracts allow us to do is

  • bet on whether a price is going to go

  • up or price is going to go down.

  • This is what the VIX index follows to

  • gauge market volatility: those trades.

  • Imagine a rollercoaster when stocks

  • sell off.

  • Investors may get scared so they could

  • buy options to protect their

  • investments. All those protective

  • purchases, a.k.a.

  • options, send the VIX higher.

  • It's really measuring the degree of

  • price movements, so I think the larger

  • the price movements, the higher the

  • volatility. And just to kind of put

  • some things in perspective.

  • VIX readings over 30 are considered

  • relatively large volatility.

  • VIX below 20 is an indication that the

  • market is rather complacent, so there's

  • not a whole lot of concern for any

  • near-term volatility and or events that

  • would spark a draw down

  • When the VIX is popping, so it's

  • soaring, it's above 19, which is its

  • median, it's average.

  • It is mean reverting.

  • So when it moves up very quickly, it

  • comes back down to its center that 19

  • or its moving average, oftentimes you

  • can look at the 20 day or the 50 day

  • moving average.

  • When it gets very far away from those

  • technical levels, you can expect it to

  • fall back down into that territory

  • relatively quickly.

  • Oftentimes, investors are always looking

  • at the VIX today as, hey, 30 days from

  • now, you know, we're going to be

  • extremely volatile and that might not

  • be the case. They're taking input data

  • from today, buying activity premium

  • options for today.

  • That's implying the future for

  • tomorrow. But tomorrow could be a very

  • different day, and I think that's very

  • important to make sure you take note of

  • as a retail investor.

  • Investors can use the VIX to help them

  • make investment decisions, or they can

  • indirectly invest in it.

  • A couple of things that you can use the

  • VIX for. Number one, it really is this

  • kind of overall measure of the level of

  • market risk. Stress in the market.

  • And I think that that's really

  • important to understand before you're

  • making an investment decision.

  • When we see volatility spiking, it is a

  • signal for us to take a look at some of

  • the names or our high conviction name

  • list, you know, and see what's going on

  • with these names. But it's going to be

  • spiking for a number of reasons.

  • It could be, you know, some other

  • headline risk or headline news that's

  • impacting price movement.

  • And sometimes these are short term

  • issues. Sometimes they're more long

  • term issues where it might not be an

  • opportune time to buy at this level,

  • but it's a great indicator just to have

  • an understanding of volatility where

  • you're going and potentially what the

  • price moves might look like over the

  • next 30 days.

  • Investors can also invest in volatility.

  • They can invest in the VIX, so not

  • directly, but they can do it through

  • ETFs. Exchange traded funds were also

  • notes when they do that, see, there's

  • like a negative correlation between

  • volatility and stock prices.

  • So when you look at an overall

  • portfolio, sometimes you need certain

  • things to zig while other things are

  • zagging. So that's the whole kind of

  • point of asset allocation, right?

  • So like stocks and bonds and and

  • alternative asset classes, you have

  • these different elements in a portfolio

  • so that they do different things and

  • they also support one another.

  • When one is up, one might be down.

  • When one is up, one might be just a

  • little bit up. It's a good hedge for

  • the S&P 500.

  • Now the VIX can be used for short term

  • tactical trade ideas for sure.

  • Or if you are, you know, your window of

  • investing is much shorter, it might be

  • something you use as a key determinant

  • of when you kind of switch different

  • asset classes or different parts of the

  • market that you want to be invested in.

  • You know, the most important thing is

  • having a plan, whatever you are

  • investing for, whether you are a trader

  • or an investor, having a sound plan,

  • And if you're a long term investor, so

  • you're investing for retirement, you're

  • investing for something 20, 30 years

  • down the road. Today's VIX price

  • shouldn't concern you too much.

  • Invest in you ready set grow.

  • CNBC and Acorns.

Well, there's no reason to believe that

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市場の動揺時に利益を上げるには(How To Make Money During Market Swings)

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    moge0072008 に公開 2022 年 03 月 19 日
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