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  • KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER ONE: You know what?

  • I have stuff in the opening. I won't pay over that.

  • KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER TWO: Eight dollar, two on the upside on eight.

  • Sell!

  • And just as Adam Smith suggested, traders here compete fiercely to make as much

  • money as possible for their clients and themselves.

  • JOE MAZZELLA (Knight Capital Group): You want to win.

  • And it's the competitive nature of all of us that drives us to push harder and harder

  • each day. You know, as the room gets busier and busier,

  • and the noise starts to elevate, if I'm sitting here, and I'm not that active,

  • and I see somebody next to me who's busier than I am,

  • it gets me going.

  • KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER THREE: Hey, Tommy! The 38,000 guy added 50,

  • so...

  • KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER FOUR: T.X.M. for a buyer.

  • Twenty-three-ninety for 100.

  • Why does it matter what happens in places like this?

  • Most of us use financial products like mortgages or mutual funds.

  • The firms that sell us these products take our money and invest it to make more money

  • in the financial markets. If traders make profits for these financial

  • firms they can then offer us cheaper mortgages and better mutual fund returns.

  • The result: a matrix of money that connects us all.

  • It's built on an economic model that says most of the time most of us,

  • and most of the traders, behave rationally. But what if this model of human behavior isn't

  • right?

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Stocks shot higher, giving the Dow its best day in almost two

  • years.

  • In 2005, rational economics, it seems, has delivered.

  • Times are good and have been for years.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: There's a hot real estate market in many parts of the country

  • right now.

  • Many think the long boom will continue.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Earnings jumped almost eight-fold.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH NEWS CLIP: Our economic horizon is as bright as

  • it's been in a long time.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: For those in the housing business,

  • these are gold-rush days.

  • Economist Robert Shiller is unconvinced.

  • ROBERT SHILLER: It did seem to me that there was complacency and an overriding feeling

  • of normalcy that this can't be wrong.

  • He thinks the boom is a mirage.

  • ARCHIVE VIDEO NEWS CLIP: While the real estate market has grown to new heights and new prices

  • never seen before...

  • He's worried about one thing in particular: housing.

  • Housing prices have gone up six percent a year for decades.

  • In 2005, in some places they're rising at 25 percent.

  • ROBERT SHILLER: This was very anomalous performance. The idea that home prices always go up led

  • people to think that they had all found the investment of all investments.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Thousands came to a two-day expo hoping to learn how how they

  • could turn investment in real estate into personal riches.

  • Shiller believes America is in the grip of an irrational mania.

  • ROBERT SHILLER: I predicted it was likely to correct down and might cause a huge financial

  • crash and a worldwide recession.

  • On a book tour, that summer, he warns of the dangers.

  • ARCHIVE AUDIO NEWS CLIP: Economist Robert Shiller is out with a new book titled Irrational

  • Exuberance.

  • ROBERT SHILLER (In 2005 News Interview): It's kind of a frame of mind we get into,

  • when prices keep going up and we see a lot of excitement.

  • That's irrational exuberance.

  • Rational economists dismiss his warnings.

  • JOHN COCHRANE: What does "irrational exuberance" mean?

  • It's a lovely buzzword for a view that prices are higher than Bob Schiller thinks they ought

  • to be.

  • EUGENE FAMA: Bob, who's a friend of mine, has been consistently pessimistic about prices.

  • The debate about whether rising house prices are the result of a mania or rational calculation

  • intensifies.

  • GARY BECKER: The individual household was not being irrational.

  • They were getting low down payments, low interest rates,

  • it was a rational decision to make, particularly when they expected prices to

  • continue to rise over time.

  • Financial institutions share the conviction that house prices will continue to rise.

  • They offer mortgage deals never seen before. And the country's top financial officials

  • are optimistic.

  • ALAN GREENSPAN (Former Chair,, Federal Reserve System/C-Span Archive Video):

  • The U.S. economy has weathered such episodes before,

  • without experiencing significant declines in the national average level of home prices.

  • BEN BERNANKE (Chair,, Federal Reserve System/C-Span Archive Video):

  • House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years.

  • At a national level, These price increases largely reflect strong

  • economic fundamentals.

  • This confidence isn't just a shared hunch, It's based on the widely accepted models of

  • rational economics.

  • JUSTIN FOX: Basically, you build the models assuming people were like these calculators

  • who would look at the range of possible outcomes and the risks and balance it all out.

  • In 2005, he economic models assume consumers will make careful calculations about

  • their mortgages.

  • RICHARD THALER: Economists assume we shouldn't worry about people taking out 95-percent mortgages

  • or 100-percent mortgages or "trust me" mortgages,, Because they'll only take out those mortgages

  • if they have made all the relevant calculations.

  • Instead, as housing prices soar, any consumers take out mortgages they cannot afford,

  • and assume debt based on the rising value of their homes.

  • So why might so many people be willing to take on so much risk?

  • At Stanford University, researchers stumble on a possible answer.

  • Their research,at first, as nothing to with money.

  • It isn't even being conducted by economists. Psychologists are using powerful brain scanners

  • to explore the mysteries of the human mind, specially emotion.

  • BRIAN KNUTSON (Stanford University): I started looking into the brain because I was interested

  • in emotion, and I was convinced that there must be something

  • in there that could give us a handle on emotion.

  • Psychologist Brian Knutson wants to know how emotions affect one of the oldest parts of

  • our brain, that evolved so long ago we share it with

  • many creatures, even lizards.

  • BRIAN KNUTSON: In general, the lower the area of the brain,

  • the farther back it goes in evolution, right? And it generalizes across species,

  • so we humans still have these sub-cortical areas, deep in the brain,

  • that are ancient.

  • This part of the brain is called the "nucleus accumbens,"

  • and it gets triggered by the most primal human needs.

  • BRIAN KNUTSON: From the standpoint of survival, it makes a lot of sense that natural rewards,

  • like food and sex and so forth, would activate this circuit that makes you

  • go out and get those rewards.

  • This part of the brain plays a crucial role in drug addiction.

  • Out of curiosity, Knutson tries to find things that excite it

  • as much as the prospect of sex and drugs. So he asks people to imagine they are about

  • to receive some money.

  • BRIAN KNUTSON: Once we started to use money, we found very reliable activation in these

  • emotional circuits. This means it's not just sex, it's not just

  • drugs, it's not just food that activates these circuits,

  • money also activates these circuits, and it does so very powerfully.

  • Could the fact that an ancient part of our brain gets excited by money explain some of

  • the frenzied behavior by financial traders and consumers during the housing boom?

  • Rising house prices are an example of a phenomenon called a "speculative bubble," when prices

  • of a financial asset suddenly take off and keep rising.

  • Robert Shiller believes it's emotional excitement that drives them.

  • ROBERT SHILLER: What's going on is that, as the bubble grows, more and more people

  • are coming in. And they're coming in out of envy for the

  • other people who are shamelessly boasting, "I made more money than you did all last year,

  • working." And for a while, you think it can't be right.

  • But then you think, "Maybe I was wrong, maybe I should get into

  • this." And it's really driven by human emotion

KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP TRADER ONE: You know what?

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お金よりもアイデア3 (思想重于金钱3)

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    Jacktom に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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