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  • On June 15, China and India's military troops clashed in hand-to-hand combat

  • along a disputed border in the Himalayan mountains, resulting in deaths from both sides.

  • This was the deadliest confrontation between India and China along that border in 45 years,

  • marking a dangerous escalation between the two nuclear powers.

  • In the 1950s, a term was used to describe the relationship between India and China:

  • Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai”, which meansIndia and China are brothers.”

  • However, that was the exception rather than the norm,

  • with a deep-seated mistrust on both sides still felt today.

  • Two years after India's independence in 1947, the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949.

  • Despite attempts to establish a cordial relationship, such as the India-China Friendship Association,

  • cracks were already appearing in their bilateral relations.

  • For one, China never accepted a border drafted by the British in 1914 demarcating the frontier

  • between Tibet and British India, also known as the McMahon line.

  • The ambiguity of the 550-mile line, which India recognizes as its official legal border,

  • soon became a source of tension between the two Asian neighbors.

  • It culminated in the Sino-Indian war in 1962.

  • The battle lasted a month and China made inroads past the McMahon line

  • while India suffered heavy casualties.

  • Over the next few years, India managed to recover lost ground amid occasional clashes

  • between the two countries, including one in 1975, which brought 45 years of uneasy peace at the border.

  • Despite efforts fortente in the following years between the political leadership of

  • both countries, the issue remained unresolved.

  • Between 1993 and 2005, India and China signed a series of border agreements,

  • including a 1996 agreement prohibiting the use of firearms in the volatile area.

  • So what are both sides fighting over exactly, and what is the significance?

  • The McMahon Line forms a part of the long border between China and India, which extends

  • for more than 3,400 km in the mountainous region of the Himalayas.

  • This frontier is referred to as the Line of Actual Control, or the LAC, which includes

  • landmarks such as the Pangong lake and the Galwan Valley.

  • There are no official records or real-life markings delineating the actual LAC

  • resulting in grey zones between the Chinese and Indian patrols.

  • The LAC fringes mountains, valleys and plateaus, making the flow of goods and activities laborious.

  • As a result, India has been upgrading its roads and military infrastructure

  • for over a decade, which will allow the rapid deployment of its forces.

  • Galwan river, where the latest fatal confrontation occurred, has a vantage point of a road being

  • built by India, which makes it a strategic and significant location.

  • China has also been building its own infrastructure and military outposts along the LAC,

  • including a highway connecting China's sensitive regions of Xinjiang and Tibet.

  • The country also has more infrastructure projects west of the LAC, which connects China to Pakistan

  • as part of its Belt and Road initiative, adding to India's wariness.

  • But the tension between India and China goes beyond their land borders.

  • And given their economic might, this will have broader implications for the region

  • and the rest of the world too.

  • The two countries make up about 36% of the world's population.

  • China has the second largest economy in the world with a GDP of more than $14 trillion

  • while India takes the fifth spot with $2.9 trillion.

  • As their economies grow, both countries have been investing heavily in their military arsenals.

  • In 2020, China allocated more than $178 billion for defense, although many analysts think

  • that the actual figure is much higher.

  • Meanwhile, India's defense budget stands at around $73 billion.

  • The Stockholm International Peace Research estimates that

  • China has 320 nuclear warheads, while India has 150.

  • Even before the latest clash, geopolitical tensions between the two juggernauts

  • have been on the rise of late.

  • India's neighborsPakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepalhave forged closer ties to China

  • in the recent years under its Belt and Road initiative.

  • To counter the rise of China, India has sought closer ties with strategic players such as

  • the United States, Russia, Japan and Australia.

  • What you will see, I think, is that India is trying to find its own way to put pressure on China.

  • India will be trying to improve its relationships with Australia, with Japan, with Vietnam,

  • with United Kingdom, with all the countries who are worried about China

  • in order to give itself a little bit of leverage.

  • The pandemic has taken a toll on the economies of both countries.

  • This means that the dynamics between Beijing and New Delhi have shifted too.

  • As companies evaluate their supply chains in the wake of the pandemic and

  • the trade war between the U.S. and China, India has been positioning itself

  • to lure more foreign investment.

  • In recent years, Prime Minister Modi's office has pushed for India to be self-reliant, and

  • has imposed curbs on Chinese imports and investment.

  • The latest clash has also led to a boycott of Chinese companies in India, including a

  • ban of nearly 60 Chinese apps such as TikTok and WeChat, while Chinese firms

  • Huawei and ZTE may be excluded from the rollout of India's 5G network.

  • Indian startupswhich have been courting Chinese funding in recent yearsare also

  • finding themselves in a quandary.

  • Indian food delivery unicorn Zomato raised $150 million from China's Alibaba group

  • in January 2020, while its competitor Swiggy is backed by Tencent and Meituan-Dianping.

  • You're talking about a world in which China is going to have curtailed economic relations

  • with the world's leading superpower, the United States, and the world's most important

  • emerging market, that is India.

  • So I think you're going to have a very different economic picture as the US-India relationship

  • coheres around this problem, and every corporate officer and institutional investor needs to

  • be prepared for a world in which you have a confrontation against China

  • by two of the most important democracies in the world.

  • While it is unlikely that the border clash will lead to a full-blown military conflict

  • between India and China, the saber-rattling hasn't ceased.

  • The confrontation may just widen their geopolitical rivalry on other fronts

  • in an increasingly divisive world.

  • So what are your thoughts on the relationship between India and China?

  • Do share with us. Thanks for watching.

  • And do subscribe if you've enjoyed our content.

  • In the meantime, stay safe.

On June 15, China and India's military troops clashed in hand-to-hand combat

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中国とインドの紛争は一体何なのか?| CNBCが解説 (What is the dispute between China and India all about? | CNBC Explains)

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    Summer に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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