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  • If a helicopter flew overhead dropping bank notes

  • would you pick them up and spend them?

  • What if the government sent you a check for $500, no questions asked?

  • Although that may sound too good to be true,

  • it's an idea that's being taken seriously right now

  • as a way to keep economies moving,

  • as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is felt across the world.

  • So how does this helicopter money work?

  • As people stay at home and businesses shutter,

  • governments and central banks around the world are considering extreme measures

  • to support their economies through the coronavirus crisis.

  • The consumption of goods and services,

  • or consumer spending, is one of the key drivers of the economy.

  • Consumer spending accounts for 58% of the world's gross domestic product or GDP.

  • And in countries like the U.S. and U.K., it's even more

  • representing a whopping two-thirds of their GDPs.

  • So, if consumer spending slows down, or stops,

  • the economy runs into big trouble.

  • Governments around the world are urging their citizens to stay home,

  • as they attempt to contain the spread of the virus.

  • And while these measures will hopefully save lives,

  • economies are already seeing business closures and job layoffs as a result.

  • The number of Americans filing for unemployment, for example,

  • skyrocketed to unprecedented levels in March.

  • Those claims then doubled just a week later.

  • Without a steady stream of income coming in,

  • many people are understandably anxious about parting with their money

  • meaning consumer spending will take a big hit.

  • One proposed solution is for governments to make payments to every person.

  • The argument is that if you have extra money in your bank account,

  • you'll feel less worried about the future

  • and be more inclined to spend.

  • So why might this be more effective than other steps being taken by central bankers and lawmakers?

  • As fears about the pandemic escalated,

  • central banks acted fast by slashing interest rates

  • and lending money to keep businesses afloat.

  • But just because it's cheaper to borrow money,

  • it doesn't mean that people will want to take out loans,

  • especially when they are nervous about the future.

  • Meanwhile, legislators have proposed cutting payroll taxes and reducing tax rates

  • And while these measures may help business owners and salaried employees,

  • gig workers and the unemployed will not feel the benefits.

  • That's where the simplicity of handing out a sum of money to everyone comes in

  • The argument is that reaching a wider number of people will encourage consumer spending.

  • And this is where we get the image of a helicopter dropping bundles of cash down on a crowd.

  • One way to finance thishelicopter dropwould be for a country's central bank to print more money.

  • Another way would be for governments to borrow money, adding to their national debt.

  • Methods that have been proposed to distribute the dough include mailing out pre-paid cards,

  • or simply showing ID at a bank to claim their cash.

  • Some governments are beginning to give it a go.

  • The Hong Kong government, which has a history of cash handouts,

  • announced in February plans to give permanent residents HK$10,000 or US$1,280.

  • It's hoping the extra spending money will help mitigate the economic double whammy

  • of months of protests followed by the pandemic.

  • In March, U.S. policymakers approved a coronavirus stimulus package

  • which sends out $1,200 to every adult earning below a certain level.

  • Other countries around the world are also considering similar schemes.

  • However, the idea of direct cash handouts certainly isn't new.

  • The term 'helicopter drop' itself was coined by economist Milton Friedman in 1969

  • as a thought experiment, rather than as a practical policy tool.

  • But the suggestion that relatively small increases in the money supply will feed demand

  • goes back much further to economist John Maynard Keynes

  • who was searching for ways to revive the economy after the Great Depression.

  • One real-life example is Japan, which doled out $6 billion worth ofshopping coupons

  • to 31 million people during a brutal recession in 1999.

  • The program, which required recipients to use the coupons locally within six months,

  • is viewed as a moderate success in the country

  • with the government even rolling out a similar program ten years later.

  • So why would anyone be against the idea of free money?

  • There are some practical roadblocks.

  • For example, many governments don't have a full database of each and every one of their citizens.

  • There's also the fear that once people get the taste for it, they'll keep asking for more.

  • In the long term, that could lead to runaway inflation

  • though this may be less of a concern these days with inflation rates at historically low levels.

  • There's also the theory that if people know their taxes may rise in the future to pay for a helicopter drop,

  • they'll simply save the money to meet this future obligation.

  • But supporters of the idea say this doesn't necessarily reflect the decisions would people make

  • in the real world when faced with immediate needs.

  • During the Great Recession in 2008,

  • the U.S. government sent out $100 billion in tax rebates,

  • called economic stimulus payments

  • to 130 million taxpayers.

  • Unfortunately, the money wasn't able to stop the recession from taking hold,

  • and one survey found only 20 percent of the people who received the checks actually spent them.

  • Another objection to a helicopter drop scheme is that it's not a long-term solution.

  • It doesn't help workers keep their jobs

  • or find new ones if they're unemployed,

  • and a one-time cash payment certainly doesn't go as far as a steady paycheck.

  • This suggests governments should focus instead on helping businesses keep employees on their payrolls.

  • But even this option still leaves many people in the economy,

  • like self-employed workers or contractors, behind.

  • Another problem which may be the biggest, is political.

  • It would be a momentous decision to create these large sums of money.

  • Doling out cash to the general population

  • goes far beyond the job description of unelected central bankers.

  • In many countries such a move would be illegal.

  • Central banks and governments would also have to work together

  • to create and distribute the helicopter money.

  • But if governments simply directed central banks to print the money,

  • this would challenge the idea that they should make decisions independently.

  • In the Euro zone, this coordination could be particularly tricky because of the divide

  • between the European Central Bank, which looks after monetary policy,

  • and the various national governments which retain control over taxation and expenditure.

  • In a worst-case scenario, these measures could ultimately result in the loss of trust

  • in central banks and the currencies they print,

  • which some argue could undermine our financial system completely.

  • For the helicopter drop to stimulate spending,

  • the public must believe it to be “a unique event which will never be repeated”,

  • as described by Friedman in his thought experiment.

  • Although dishing out cash to the general public might sound like a desperate measure,

  • it's also a powerful weapon of last resort

  • for governments and central banks

  • seeking to combat falling consumer demand.

  • As dark clouds form on the horizon,

  • don't be surprised if you hear those choppers heading your way.

If a helicopter flew overhead dropping bank notes

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コロナウイルス危機はフリーマネーで解決できるのか?| CNBCが解説します。 (Can free money solve the coronavirus crisis? | CNBC Explains)

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    Summer に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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