This is a very difficult thing for a prime minister.

Tohave to say many more people are going to lose loved ones before that time.

What sort of numbers are we talking about?

Well, I think it is a deeply concerning moment on DDE.

If you look at the modeling, the chief medical officer believes we will be lucky to have less than 5% of the population getting the virus.

That would suggest a mortality rate four or five times the annual average for winter flu on dhe.

If you look at what happens in other countries, this can often be in the most terrible circumstances.

So this is very sobering.

But I think the encouraging news from today is that we believe that we are four weeks behind Italy on DDE.

That is, I think, thanks to heroic efforts to contact trace people who have had the virus may have the virus on, I think we probably dunmore than any other European country.

To do that with sobering news is that maybe up to 10,000 people have got the virus as we speak in this country on, that suggests that we are in a very serious emergency now, although they are small countries, Denmark and island of both effectually moved to a stop.

All mass gatherings, schooling, everything has been has been closed.

Shouldn't that be the measure here?

While many people will be surprised and concerned that we're not moving sooner and the reason is because Are you surprised?

Yes, I am on.

The reason is because one thing we do have now is evidence off countries that appear to have been strikingly successful in turning back the tide of the virus.

Thailand, for example, the first country out outside China to get the virus only 59 reported cases.

Taiwan right next door, any 49 cases.

Shanghai, which is in the same country as Wu Han Province, eyes only reporting three deaths now there might be under reporting.

But most people recognize that the places that have succeeded are the ones that moved earliest to social distancing, that the business of trying to keep the most vulnerable people away from places where they could catch the virus.

And so I think people will be concerned that we're not moving sooner to MME.

Or social distancing.

For example, banning external visits to care homes, things like that.

And I think that's for me.

One of the puzzling things about this announcement.

I'd like to see the modeling that really says that people are going to tire off social distancing in a national and international emergency of this nature.

So your candid, you believe?

Actually, we should be moving much faster and we should be taking much more drastic measures.

But I am concerned because we've got four weeks with four weeks behind Italy on DDE.

What we do every single day of those four weeks is absolutely critical.

I don't want to second guess theat vice that scientists are giving, but I would like to see what the modeling is from the behavioral scientists that says that you know, we could go to early with some of these measures because I think most people's priority is their elderly loved ones who are most vulnerable, perhaps 89% mortality rates if they get the virus on to do everything possible to make sure that they don't get the virus.

But then, if I put you back into your old position, has Secretary of State for health, would you be looking at the health service saying Yes, I wish we could do this, but actually, in order to bring the health service up to a scale in which it can cope at all, we must not take these drastic measures.

Well, the point of taking drastic measures is to slow the onslaught on the N hs.

So 5% of the population get the virus and 5% of those people need an intensive care bed.

That's over 100 and 50,000 people who will need intensive care.

And we only have 4000 beds.

So this phrase flattening the curve is incredibly important to delay the moment that it hits the N.

H s to give the n hs more time to spread the demand for those intensive care beds.

So that's why doing everything we can now to delay the onset of the virus in tow to flatten that peak absolutely critical.

But I do detect that you are alarmed that the pace is not fast enough that actually we should be moving much harder to clamp down or public gatherings to bring about a situation which, just as you said just now that people I'm not allowed to go and visit care homes if they have no business there on the rest of these measures should have been taken in your view.

Well, the evidence from the around the world is that countries that acted earlier on social distancing have had more success.

I understand that the government absolutely right.

We must look at the modeling, the scientific and behavioral modeling.

But I would also say that assumptions about what is acceptable are changing.

I think two months ago very few people would have said any democracy would accept the kind of lockdowns that they're having initially now.

But according to one poll, it has 89% public support in Italy.

So I think, assumptions about what the public are prepared to accept, a willing to do if it's going to reduce the chances of a fatality amongst the loved one.

I need to be constantly checked.

If we look at our own situation men, is it in part a consequence of underfunding the N hs, that we're in this position?

I don't think so.

There's a I think the N.

H.

S does need more money, and I fought for more money when I was health secretary.

I want more doctors and more nurses.

But I think even the most well resourced health systems in Europe, I mean lumbered in northern Italy.

Eyes ah, rich part of Europe.

And it has one of the the better healthcare systems in Europe and they are massively struggling.

The scale of this is so huge that I think those longer term considerations are less significant than what we do in the next few days and weeks to reduce and spread the pressure on the health care system.

Do you personally fear for what's to come in the next few days and weeks?

I think there's all to play for.

If we have got four weeks, which is what the assessment waas today at that press conference, then that is time to do a huge amount of things on.

If you look a TTE that there are countries that have managed to stop themselves getting into Italy style situations against the odds.

Singapore and Hong Kong, two very interesting examples of countries which have huge amounts of contact with China, but possibly because of the experience of dealing with SARS, they acted very, very quickly, so I think there are definitely things that can be done on Dhe.

Obviously, that's what we all want to happen just about public gatherings.

If we take, for example, the Liverpool match last night, some 4000 Spanish, mainly from Madrid, deeply affected by this virus came to Liverpool.

Hung about went to the bars, all arrested.

Surely that was a woefully wrong thing to be doing Well, I think the question with public gatherings and I personally don't have a great concern about going into public places because I don't think I'm one of the most vulnerable people in one of the most vulnerable groups.

But if you go to one of those public gatherings and then you have contact with an elderly relative who you could pass the virus on to, that could be much more serious.

So I think that's what the calculation has to be about these public gatherings and if we have, But then the logic from that is you should ban these public gatherings and many countries have yes and I don't think we necessarily have to do every single thing that every single other country has done.

But I do think we should look at the countries that have turned the tide on the virus because we do know, have some very interesting examples.

You know, I think Shanghai is extraordinary how the successful they appear to have bean on, ask what lessons need to be learned.

Public gatherings is certainly one of the things.

There's a big debate over schools.

I understand the difficulties there because of the worries that N.

H s workers might not be able to go to work.

On the other hand, good schools run a skeleton service just for health workers and other key workers that got 95% of Children out of schools.

These air consideration.

I don't think it's for me to second guess, but I think the move towards social distancing for the most vulnerable groups, that seems to me to be one of the biggest priorities.

So two very short questions Jeremy Hunt, the optimist where we will be in four weeks, Jeremy Hunt, the pessimist where we will be in four weeks.

Well, I'm still optimistic that we can head off what's happening, those horrific scenes that we're seeing in Italy because I think the N.

H.

S is very good at dealing with these emergencies and I think we have four weeks and we have a lot more knowledge than the Italian authorities had four weeks ago.

And the pessimist, the pessimist says to me that it is gonna be very, very challenging to find enough intensive care beds in whether it's the N h s or any other system.

And so we we really need to use every hour we have over the next few weeks wisely to make those preparations.

And what would your message to the N.

H.

S stuff that you used to interact with him and run?

They are absolutely amazing on dhe, you know, we know we can count on them on.

We know we need to do everything possible to spread the pressure that is coming down the track so that it doesn't all come in a very concentrated period.

Which means that doctors have to play God on, decide who gets to live and who gets to die.

That's the biggest nightmare for any doctor on when we want to try and avoid that as much as possible.

Jeremy Hunt.

Thank you very much indeed for joining us.

Thank you.