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  • tonight in this special program, we pick up where the news has left off with the only thing that people are talking about.

  • Corona virus would wasan obscure scientific term a few weeks ago has come to define a global crisis not seen in generations.

  • Many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.

  • We're all worried, and we all have questions first and foremost how many of us will get it?

  • How badly and how do we protect those who we care about most?

  • We've assembled a panel of experts who will pick apart some of these answers.

  • If you don't stop the spread of this disease, any health system in the world, sooner or later will fade.

  • So can we avoid becoming Italy?

  • Tonight?

  • We ask, Are we doing enough?

  • So before we discuss the emergency with our panel of experts, let's bring you up to date.

  • With the latest developments, the World Health Organization has declared that Europe is now the epicenter of the global pandemic.

  • Spain has declared a state of emergency, and some European countries are closing their borders here.

  • The number of new cases has jumped.

  • I'm more than 200 in one day, the highest increase so far.

  • All professional football in England, Scotland and Wales has been suspended and maize local and the aural elections in England have been postponed for a year.

  • This crisis is unfolding day by day, hour by hour.

  • Just how did we get here?

  • News from Italy does not tend to terrify us.

  • This week it did, breaking fingers felt by Tuesday, a love Italy was in lock down.

  • It's iconic sites, empty ski resorts, schools, bars, shops and all non essential businesses Shuttered until the end of March, Wuhan had come to Europe.

  • This is now the epicenter off the pandemic.

  • Rewind.

  • Just three weeks, and not everyone in Italy seemed convinced by the viruses.

  • Reach war market closes today.

  • Today, doctors and Lombardy are hoping that they have enough ventilators for those that need them.

  • These images are all too reminiscent of the quarantine Chinese city of Wuhan.

  • But when the same images come out of Milan, it's suddenly all fields, very riel and far too close.

  • We here in Britain now about to face and very tough choices.

  • Indeed, Mother stock market may have experienced some record.

  • Ford's most of us have carried on living our normal lives as per usual going to the pub, taking our kids to school, going to the office, taking the tube, YSL that about to change.

  • And is Italy under lock down?

  • Going to be island new normal look at the map and the growing number of cases in Italy, Spain, France and Germany makes you feel like it's closing in andan.

  • Analysis of infection rate suggests that we may not be far behind Italy, which has over 15,000 cases and over 1000 deaths.

  • Other countries appear to be on the same trajectory, with Germany, France on Spain roughly nine days behind Italy, the U.

  • S.

  • Around 11 days and Switzerland 13 on the U.

  • K.

  • 14.

  • So far, the government has been trying to contain the virus by testing and isolating those infected.

  • But society still continues to gather and schools remain open.

  • The government has hinted all that may change in order to delay the epidemic, speak and prevent the N.

  • H s becoming inundated with cases.

  • The prime minister has asked anyone with a cough or high temperature to stay at home for seven days with more measures to come later.

  • At some point in the next few weeks, we're likely to go further and if someone in our household has those symptoms, we will be asking everyone in that household to stay at home.

  • The underlying message.

  • It's not if life will change, but when.

  • But other countries are adopting tougher measures.

  • Right now.

  • Spain is the latest country to declare a state of emergency, and across the Atlantic, Donald Trump has banned all flights from Europe, but not the UK and Ireland.

  • The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hot spots.

  • As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seated by travelers from Europe.

  • China appears to be coming out of the crisis.

  • It has seen over 80,000 confirmed cases and over 3000 deaths.

  • The combination of locking down cities, contact tracing on social distancing, like staying at home closing schools and banning mass gatherings appear to be slowing the virus, and new research suggests it could have been a lot worse.

  • It's now estimated that the two number of cases in China is in fact closer to 115,000 and had authorities not intervened, there could have been 67 times more cases.

  • That's over seven and 1/2 1,000,000 people.

  • Researchers believe.

  • If China had acted three weeks earlier, the number of cases could have been reduced by 95%.

  • China's response, his own praise on the World Health Organization on with the pandemic now declared its expressed guarded criticism towards those who don't act decisively.

  • We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.

  • We have rang the alarm bell loud and clear.

  • Despite being urged to act, Britain's experts believe the taking action too early could actually do more harm than good.

  • None of us can ever remember a crisis quite like this.

  • One way or watching life as we know it grind to a halt, our hands have become potentially our worst enemies.

  • Hugs a route, coughs terrify andl the wildly wonder.

  • What's next?

  • Who's next?

  • Well, if the public is trying to work out what this crisis means for them, how about hearing from the experts in this special program will talk to the scientists, economists and those on the medical front line about what we can all do to keep safe and ask whether it's enough.

  • And just what will the impact of the rise be on our society, our economy, indeed, our psyche.

  • But the question on everyone's mind right now is whether the government's perhaps cautious approach is the right one.

  • I put that to Professor Nick Finn, deputy director of Public Health, England's National Infection Service, and I asked him whether the approaches to allow some people to get infected to develop what's called a herd immunity we'll herd immunity is, is the situation where you get so many people in the population, the development, immunity to a disease, that there is no opportunity for the disease actually to become established on spread to lots of people.

  • Normally, we do that with the vaccine, so we vaccinate everyone so that anyone who who was infectious and came into contact with someone who'd been vaccinated the disease wouldn't travel any further.

  • You can do that naturally, of course, if a disease that's not been introduced before effects a large number of people and and that's really how herd immunity in the UK would develop.

  • But so is that now the policy to allow the infection to spread, perhaps in a controlled way, to a large sex in the population so that we develop that immunity in a natural way.

  • No, no, no, no.

  • We're not advocating that at all.

  • And this is a process of delay.

  • So what we're saying is that people have symptoms should stay at home for seven days.

  • And at the end of the seven days we review, we take the view that there lightly, they're not likely to be infectious on.

  • Therefore, they won't pass on the virus, but slightly mixed messages here because we have heard from the government that they do want to build a herd immunity.

  • So which one is it?

  • Way going forward, I mean, is you're not.

  • We're going for a tactic which we call DeLay, which is trying to slow the progress off the virus within three UK On.

  • By doing that, that it becomes more manageable.

  • We don't see a very large peak where the N hs could well be overwhelmed.

  • It's, um it's a sense flattening the current, the epidemic curve.

  • But is there not a danger that in the pursuit of that solution, you're going to turn, especially the more vulnerable members of society effectively into guinea pigs.

  • For what works?

  • No.

  • What were the key?

  • The key issue here is that we are falling.

  • The signs were trying to contain the spread of the virus by asking anyone who developed symptoms the state home for seven days on.

  • At the end of that time, there would be no longer considered infectious Professor Nick Finn speaking to me earlier.

  • Well, joining me now is John Edmonds, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

  • He works on the mapping of infectious diseases and is currently advising the government on the Corona virus on from California.

  • Silicon Valley Executive invited Thomas Prayer He's not a scientist, but his detailed modeling of the virus has spread.

  • Has said the Internet light with its stark warnings about the rate of infection.

  • Welcome to you both.

  • Let me start with you, Thomas in California, President Trump we just heard a few minutes ago has declared a state off national emergency.

  • What would actually change now?

  • Because of that, the country has moved from trying to contain the illness from outside to making sure that now inside, it doesn't transmit and That's the key here.

  • They're realizing, Oh, my God is on that.

  • It's coming from outside.

  • It's here.

  • It's spreading.

  • It's everywhere.

  • We need to stop these.

  • We need to stop the transmission between different people.

  • So that's what they're trying to do.

  • They're trying to create social distancing, keeping people spreads.

  • Not everything.

  • Everybody together so that the transmission goes down.

  • So can we now expect, as a result of this state of national emergency, the kind of measures in America that we've seen in places like Italy?

  • I think we will totally different from the U.

  • S.

  • Obviously, individual freedoms are substantially more important here, but he's the only thing that's going to stop this thing.

  • Okay, so you welcome this move of the president today.

  • Really?

  • You normally do I?

  • But the markets are also responding.

  • They were up 4% in the U.

  • S.

  • As Trump was speaking.

  • Okay, I want to get back to you in a minute because I want to talk about your particular modeling of this rise.

  • But John Edmonds, should we be declaring a state of national emergency here something as dramatic as that?

  • No, no.

  • What game?

  • What game would we get from that?

  • So what?

  • We're going to get people up into a panic and stuff.

  • We need people to come with us in a stepwise.

  • That way, this epidemic is not gonna be over in a week or a month.

  • This epidemic is gonna last for most of this year.

  • And so we're gonna ask people to change their behavior quite radically.

  • It's gonna be very difficult for them to do is gonna have major economic and social impact on them.

  • Then they hacked them.

  • Then we're gonna have to limit the amount that we're gonna ask them to do.

  • Yeah, We're gonna limit the amount that we're gonna ask people thio way.

  • Stop the epidemic or we slow the epidemic right down.

  • But we are so so that so that we the chest doesn't become overwhelmed.

  • Hospitals don't become overwhelmed.

  • That's the idea.

  • The only way to stop this epidemic is indeed to achieve herd immunity.

  • Okay, Thomas, for you, you're shaking your head and now you've got your head buried in your hands.

  • What's your response to what John Edmonds just said?

  • This is like deciding.

  • You know what?

  • This forest, my burns.

  • So that's cut 1/3 of it.

  • This is crazy.

  • We want to have 10 2030% of the population.

  • Catch this.

  • The UK has, what, 66 million people.

  • That's how many people, that's Ah, around 20 million people want 1% of these people are gonna die.

  • So we're saying we want to kill 200,000 people in the UK So that's I don't think anyone is saying that.

  • I don't think anyone is saying that, but I think there is a real debate in the scientific community going on about the value of herd immunity.

  • So just briefly, what do you think about the value of herd immunity on?

  • Can it be created through the measures of the government is introducing right now, but we need to understand what it means.

  • The's herd immunity.

  • They're saying everybody's gonna catch it.

  • So what's the catch?

  • It they can't catch it anymore.

  • That's crazy.

  • We don't want people to catch it.

  • We want people not to catch.

  • It was always gonna die.

  • And right now, the case, they're going exponentially in a week.

  • The N H s is starting to be collapsed.

  • In two weeks, I'm gonna be completely collapsed if we don't take measures now and people gonna bunny maybe not today if you don't take the measures.

  • But they're gonna definitely back in panic next week or in two weeks.

  • We have 13 dates off advance compared to Italy, Right?

  • They thought the exact same thing two weeks ago.

  • And then one week later, they realized, Oh, my God, this is exploding.

  • They have now what?

  • 17,000 cases?

  • It's exporting.

  • Then they realized too late that they were not containing these.

  • UK now has an opportunity to catch this before the weekend.

  • And we need to catch this before the weekend because everybody gonna spread this with their friends were their families that they haven't been seen in the during the week.

  • So he needs to be declared.

  • Now, let's let's let's bring in John.

  • I mean, has he got a point here?

  • We've got to catch this right?

  • This There's two things.

  • There's two strategies with a new virus, a new epidemic.

  • There's two strategies.

  • One you can stamp out every single case in the world, every single case in the world, and then the virus, then you.

  • Then you're free.

  • You stop the epidemic without achieving herd immunity.

  • But you must get every single case in the world when the mild disease, that's incredibly difficult.

  • That's the face that we were in when we were trying to do containment and everybody else was trying to do containment, trying to stamp out every single case in the world.

  • It hasn't worked yet.

  • We haven't managed to do that.

  • The next phase, when the virus, the genie is out of the bottle, the viruses all around the world and spreading the next phase.

  • The only other way that the epidemics going to come to a stop is achieving herd immunity.

  • This is, let me explain.

  • There are different ways that you can do, or in the natural way that this will happen is the epidemic will run very fast on the epidemic will come up and come down very fast.

  • On dhe on the herd, immunity threshold is reached, not at the end of the epidemic.

  • That's what people sort of think it's not at the end of the epidemic, it's at the peak of the epidemic.

  • At that point, there's not enough susceptible is in the population to spread, and it's very important to understand this one further point because at the peak there so many infectious individuals.

  • But they all in fact low so many other individuals.

  • And so if you could bring the number of infectious people down at the peak, then the epidemic doesn't overshoot the evidence.

  • You can manage the epidemic and reduce the total number of size so you can achieve herd immunity and not have an epidemic over shooting.

  • But the trouble is, you know this.

  • You do that by aggressive, very important debate.

  • And it's happening right now in the scientific community, as we discover on there.

  • But getting away from the abstracts in practice.

  • What this means is that there will be many, many people, vulnerable people in this community who may die as a result of what is essentially is in no way an experiment.

  • There's no way out of it.

  • No, there's no way out of that.

  • Okay, so we've given up on the containment face that hasn't worked, so But I mean, Thomas can throw his arms up as much as you like, but that hasn't worked, Okay, but the But the point is that we're the only country, as far as I know that is that is espousing this model.

  • I mean, the Italians are telling us that they wish they had done it earlier.

  • They wish they had told their population two weeks ago.

  • You know, lock down means you don't go to the cafe.

  • You don't go to the pizzeria on what happens when they when they release the lock down, What does happen then it comes back.

  • But is that because you haven't got rid of?

  • Yes, it's inevitable if this virus around in the population is infectious people.

  • So unless you've stamped every case out not just in every case, not just in Italy, but around the work.

  • It assumes you release the matter of lock down, it comes back.

  • This is a really crucial question, Thomas.

  • What's to say that it wants China?

  • You know, people get back to the factories and go back to the officers, and the traffic's back on the streets that this thing won't come back.

  • It will possibly worse the second time around.

  • It will.

  • But the key there is not to have a big because when you have a big you have hundreds of thousands or millions of people collapsing the N.

  • H s.

  • And when you do that, all the people cannot share the ventilators that I need.

  • All the people who are having a heart attack right now cannot get to the e r.

  • And so what we need is not to have this huge peak corrupting everything, killing everybody.

  • What we need is to what we call flat in the curve.

  • Slowly grow.

  • These cases contain it so that they can be spread over time.

  • We can achieve herd immunity not in two weeks going crazy, but in six months in a year.

  • But that's what the government so sorry to interrupt.

  • But that's exactly what the prime minister was saying yesterday is, well, the colorful language.

  • They're saying We goto flattened the sombrero.

  • That's what they're trying to do here, delaying the virus.

  • That's right.

  • And how do you do it?

  • You need to take measures where people don't talk to each other.

  • We don't.

  • They don't interact with each other so they don't transmit the virus.

  • So you need to make take measures now tow, avoid people interacting now doesn't have a point.

  • John.

  • It's exactly the point I was making.

  • So the only way to do this is to achieve herd immunity to stop this epidemic, and you impose social distance measures to slow that slow it down to bring the peak down, to spread it out over time.

  • But those But if we're gonna bring the pick down from a very high point and spread it over time, then we're going to spread it over a very long period of time.

  • Six months to a year is what we're gonna We're gonna be living with this epidemic for that kind of lengths of time.

  • And so if we're gonna ask people to take these really extreme measures, then we don't really want to ask them to do it before they have to, because they're gonna have to do it for a very long time.

  • Now the epidemic is moving fast, and we will be asking them to do these measures very soon.

  • Let me ask cynically whether there is an element of this that the government doesn't want to shut down the economy, sacrifice the economy completely, as we've seen in other countries.

  • While it is trying to find the right solution, there's there's there's no easy way out of this.

  • All of these are gonna be hugely damaging to people to people's lives on the economy on there is, of course, a balance, and so you have to try and get it.

  • You get the epidemic, managed the epidemic as best we can and manage the other aspects of.

  • We have to manage the economy.

  • Of course we do.

  • We can't ignore that completely so that our priority is to save lives.

  • Of course it is.

  • Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet prestigious medical journal, has said that our policy at the moment, the government policies, playing roulette with the public.

  • Yeah, this is what he said.

  • It's kind of easy thing to say, isn't it?

  • That's, you know, that's a very easy thing to say, but I don't think they are.

  • I think what they're doing is trying to take it sensibly.

  • Stage it, look, you'll see measures coming in very fast.

  • Now the epidemic is moving, your C measures coming in, so we will be asked to do on all of us.

  • Well, we'll have to.

  • We'll have to take, can't it wait?

  • When will those measures come into?

  • Very soon.

  • Now, in the next few days, within which certainly within a week or so.

  • These will be lockdowns of cities.

  • No, we're not gonna go there.

  • We're not gonna Not.

  • Not initially, but we may get there.

  • Yeah, you know, we're going to be asking people to take extra measures have already been flagged up.

  • You had in your annual VT that you showed just before the prime Minister talking about the next measures.

  • That might be a long time.

  • So you don't think we're dragging our feet on this with possibly dangerous consequences?

  • I think I think we'll take trying to stage it as best we can.

  • Thomas, if we impose restrictions tomorrow or the day after this weekend, as you just said, Is that going to be early enough in order to stop us from becoming Italy in 13 days time?

  • With the current number of cases that we have in the UK around 800 the growth rates they over day that we have in a week?

  • We have 6000 official cases, and in two months we have 45,000.

  • We have today more cases than Wuhan had when it shut down.

  • What they did when they shut it down was completely cut it.

  • You can see the growth in two cases going dramatically dime overnight.

  • And now China has only a handful A few dozen cases every day.

  • They decided we're going to go aggressive now so that later on with young student to be suffering always consequences.

  • And that was the right move, because this is going exponentially.

  • So what you need to do is when it's growing exponentially, you catch it early and you really, really go aggressive against it.

  • You don't let it fester to collapse.

  • The N hs.

  • Okay, if you are, then you can relax legal by legal over the weeks, over the months, the measures so that no, we have more capacity on the N N hs and the cases are spread out over time.

  • Just that Thomas explain to us.

  • You know, you wrote this article that went viral on the Internet.

  • You're modeling for why these four?

  • For explaining why the numbers will double numbers, infections will double every two days.

  • How do you explain that?

  • Based on the China level, it really depends on on what's happening ever Every moment.

  • Right now, these things going really, really fast in the UK, right?

  • We have 800 gazes.

  • It's going up 33% every day.

  • That means in three days you get 1000 900.

  • So it's more than doubling in the next three dates.

  • And so what's happening is early on, when this thing is really getting up, kids explode and they grow at, say, 22 ex, every like a double every every two days.

  • And this is the situation in which the UK is today.

  • It is institution in which Italy was a week ago.

  • It is the situation in which Spain is a run up.

  • Okay, John, why you shaking her head of those numbers?

  • It's true if you just look crudely at the numbers that the numbers of cases they are doubling about every two and 1/2 days.

  • But that's because they're doing well Contact tracing the actual underlying rate of doubling is more like about every five days.

  • Okay, we're gonna leave it there.

  • John Edmonds, Thomas Player, thank you very much.

  • Indeed.

  • Our ability to fight this disease comes down in large part to the resilience of our health care system.

  • The N hs maintained that they have measures in place and are well prepared to cope with a Corona virus outbreak.

  • But how did those working on the front line field?

  • This program is surveyed.

  • Almost 1000 energies staff about preparedness, as the prime minister warns that we will face challenging times.

  • Many Indian HS are worried, too.

  • 99% say they don't feel the N.

  • H s is in a good position to face the rapidly increasing numbers of cases.

  • The government line that we're ready or prepared is laughable, the public unprepared for what will be an avalanche in the next week, Our sir good look to a zone in Italy doctors a wide that they could run out of ventilators and will soon have to make difficult decisions about who gets treatment.

  • And in our survey, 92% of images workers told us that there weren't enough specialist facilities or staff to treat Corona virus patients in their own healthcare establishments.

  • Thousands are likely to die.

  • We have nowhere near the number of critical care bads of resources to cope of even a fraction of the patient's likely to get Corona virus.

  • But it's not just equipment to treat patients.

  • Our survey reveals.

  • Many a worried and angry about the lack of protection for staff.

  • A cZ well, 97% felt there wasn't enough keeping them safe, with any 14% saying the protection equipment had been freely available.

  • As a GP, I feel exposed and vulnerable with completely inadequate protection.

  • Government peopIe equipment is useless.

  • Who masks in some plastic eight prints might as well wear a party hat from a Christmas cracker feels like GPS of the canaries in the coal mine, with the government stopping short of locking down communities.

  • Our survey shows that 94% thought the UK response hasn't been quick enough, and 95% felt that the measures weren't strong enough.

  • The fears of doctors working in the images and the experience of medics in Italy, where the virus has swept especially through the north of the country, demonstrates exactly what they might end up face.

  • I've been speaking to Dr Jack Moore Colossally.

  • He's medical director of the intensive care unit at the Polyclinic Hospital in Milan.

  • He hasn't seen his family or Children for three weeks.

  • I asked him exactly how many patients he's dealing with.

  • 808 100 something who are treated in the I C.

  • U, and most of them, like 80% of them, are intubated and under invasion.

  • Mechanical ventilation.

  • Then there is, I think, at least 1500 probably more patients who are receiving some form of non invasive respiratory support like non invasive ventilation or or see Papa in the words or in the emergency department.

  • So, to put it bluntly, have you got enough equipment and enough beds to deal with the numbers of patients coming in or not?

  • Well, until now, we've been able to deal with this huge number of patients, and we have way have enough equipment.

  • Clearly, if the number of payoff patients keeps increasing like this, we will get to a point.

  • And I don't know when this point with me where the number of patients will exceed the resources.

  • But, uh, you know, Long Birdie is a very rich region.

  • Very modern region is probably one of the richest region in Europe, and I think our health care system is quite good.

  • But no matter how good modern or efficient you are, if you don't stop the spread of this disease, any health system in the world sooner or later will fail because you're you are, like invested by its tsunami of patient.

  • Ah, a lot of patients all severe and all, you know, in a very limited period of time.

  • So what would your advice be to doctors and in the government officials in this country in Britain, every country should get ready to this.

  • I have the feeling that people are like thinking that well, this is not going to happen to me.

  • Uh, which clearly, I hope that it's not happening to anyone.

  • But unfortunately, I'm not sure that this will not happen toe somewhere else.

  • So the most important thing is to get ready.

  • Dr Gross really speaking to me from a lamb.

  • So are we ready here or to discuss that?

  • I'm joined now by doctors who end might end up like Dr Gretzky early on the front line off this battle against the virus.

  • Tom Dolphin is a consultant anesthetist in London and is a council member of the British Medical Association on Katie Brownell.

  • Stain is a GP in heart future, A county with a cluster of Corona virus infections.

  • Welcome to you both.

  • That's first.

  • We'll start with the survey that we just broadcast I mean, these are really depressing numbers in terms of confidence of frontline staff like you, in the ability of the energies to protect them on Gus, Do you agree with those numbers?

  • I think it's fair to say I do agree with those numbers.

  • They speak the truth.

  • They free.

  • Look back to this summer.

  • I remember a Wednesday afternoon in August wherein all practices across my region were sent a black alert because the hospital trusts were overwhelmed and accuse of ambulances outside the front door.

  • And here we are, six months later, facing an unprecedented challenge from it certainly matches the experience that we're having.

  • And the BM is hearing from doctors on the front line that they're not getting access to the protective protective equipment they need.

  • The peopIe, the face masks.

  • It's we've heard from the government that it's gonna be rolled out, but it's not there yet, but the patients are starting to come in already is deeply alarming.

  • And what do they were dealing with a matter of days here, certainly weeks when this could get a serious?

  • Is it Lee?

  • This is an unprecedented situation.

  • There is a worldwide shortage of peopie so it's difficult to see where we can get it from.

  • But it's the government's responsibility to look after the health care workers so that we can look after the patient's.

  • Are we now paying in this moment of crisis for 10 years of austerity in the National Health Service think that's unquestionable?

  • We've seen a absolute catastrophic decline in staff on resources over the past 10 years.

  • That's been unprecedented.

  • Unfortunately, the government is going to have to report its own.

  • We know that we're not in a great starting position.

  • If you were going to deal with an epidemic, you wouldn't start from here.

  • But we are where we are.

  • We've got the people that we have.

  • We have the kit that we have.

  • We need to get on and do what we can with what we have.

  • The government's got an opportunity now to do as much as it can trying to delay of you heard from the last guests trying to delay the peak so that we can make sure that the number of cases coming in each week doesn't exceed what we can deal with.

  • We can try and do that.

  • We've got an opportunity So are you relieved by the government strategy that they're trying to?

  • Basically, we're not gonna have a complete lock down.

  • We're just gonna, you know, ride this one out, as it were with measures here and there, but not be as draconian.

  • Some of the other countries that have dealt with this is that Is that good news for you, or do you think that's gambling with people's lives?

  • You first.

  • I'm not a public health expert, so I'm not the one say whether it's the right strategy or not, we do know that the curve needs to be flattened.

  • We need to make sure, instead having a big peak, that we have a slower curve of people coming in.

  • Whether this is the right way to do it, we will find out in future different countries of doing it different ways.

  • They have different populations, different advisers, different systems.

  • So I think it's a very fluid situation is likely to change in the next week or so.

  • We'll see different solutions coming in.

  • So we had a story tonight on Channel four.

  • News about these testing kits, self testing kits that are being rolled out by a company Apparently a 1,000,000 of them have been sent to South Korea.

  • The N H s here, I think, is looking at them.

  • But when I spoke to the 11 of the officials from Public Health, England even didn't know about them.

  • So self testing kids, where you test yourself and you get results in 10 minutes.

  • It sounds like a good solution, but it's there.

  • All sorts of issues aren't there with that sort of thing.

  • Do you?

  • Would you welcome such a thing?

  • Well, it's not a solution, but I think it's not about welcome.

  • It is going to be essential.

  • Yeah, because the alternative perfect for front place in clinical staff.

  • Because the alternative is you're gonna have upto one in three and a chest staff who were having to self isolate, who don't know if they've been exposed and therefore immune announced in a position to come back to work.

  • If they're able to exclude it or to confirm it and then they can return to work testing, testing, testing, you would say that's the most important find.

  • Clinical staff will be helpful in terms of keeping the show on the road.

  • What do you think I think the testing kits will be very helpful.

  • We're going to find ourselves in a situation maybe in a few weeks, maybe in a few months where the number of patients who need care is going to exceed what the end it just is able to provide.

  • So anything we can do to keep his many staff in the hospitals in general practice seeing patients is going to be essential now in terms of people staying at home.

  • So you get you get your cold, you get your coffee, you get a fever that the advice is stay at home for a week, but not to ring 111 or indeed demand the test.

  • Now, why are they doing that?

  • Because the previous advice was, Get yourself tested as quickly as possible.

  • This will overwhelm the system.

  • We would really need the public toe work with us.

  • This is unprecedented for us.

  • We're all quite apprehensive as a medical profession.

  • What's really important for the general public is to be careful, cautious and responsible, only called 111 If you are dangerously unwell, ensure that you've got this is to protect the system to protect the phone lines and being clogged by something which is not by protecting the system.

  • You'll go to protect the majority of the population by delivering care to those who need it most and very briefly.

  • Tom, you mentioned this earlier little bit.

  • How worried are you about the lack of protective gear for some of the frontline stuff, Or indeed, the danger the safe is when you become a doctor or a nurse or other health care professional, you expect to come into contact with infectious disease.

  • The important thing is because the system is going to be so stretched by Corona virus.

  • We need to make sure that healthcare staff are not all off at the same time with Corona virus related disease.

  • And that's why we need the people years to protect us so that we can carry on looking after patients.

  • Okay, thank you very much.

  • Tom Dolphin Cay Juvenile status.

  • Thank you very much indeed for coming in.

  • Let's just remind ourselves what has been happening around the world.

  • The virus is spreading around the globe, bringing life as we know it to a grinding halt.

  • Wall Street had its biggest one day drop since 1987 and stock markets around the world have suffered similar forms.

  • Walls, borders, barricades and travel restrictions are now a ll the rage.

  • Airports are deserted, planes grounded but covet.

  • 19 has the run of the place.

  • It is stubbornly global politicians around the world.

  • The testing positive for covered 19 Broadway is turning off its lights.

  • Disney Parks is shutting their doors, schools are closing and supermarket shows a left bare as multiple countries going to lock down the streets of Madrid are empty, the Vatican deserted.

  • Even Mark Everest is closed for business.

  • Well, this empty indoor life become the new normal for us in the UK as well.

  • Astonishing images on We're going to discuss the impact now.

  • Joining me is the economist Katy Martin, whose capital markets editor for The Financial Times.

  • Ben Voya, is a behavioral psychologist at the London School of Economics and from her home in north London is the writer and broadcaster Joan Bakewell.

  • Joan, if I could start with you yourself isolating at the moment, I gather.

  • Why is that?

  • Yes, I had a pre existing condition for which I was receiving treatment from the doctor on Dhe.

  • She advised that I should.

  • Therefore, I select myself to make sure that that I was safe.

  • I'm quite old, I'ma says.

  • It were part of the risk community, and I think that's very wise, and I'm happy to do it all there.

  • Of course, it's massively inconvenient.

  • How long will he do it for?

  • Well, I'll do it as long as I tell me.

  • I mean, I have been listening to what people have been saying.

  • I can see this is no longer an inconvenience.

  • This is a major issue, a global issue of which I am part and to some extent it's a zoo at risk in the forefront of it.

  • So I will do what I want, I'm told I read all about it on I will listen.

  • Um, I think it's very important that people of my generation do listen because in a sense, the health service is the N hs.

  • That support systems aren't adequate, so we are going to have to support each other and give it to other comfort, help, advice and support.

  • It's interesting, isn't because whenever we hear about casualties, people often say, you know, the age of the person who died on then they talk about underlying conditions?

  • A someone of somewhat advanced years.

  • When you hear those words, do you feel that society is respecting you as an elderly person?

  • Or is there a kind of reduced sense of kind of almost a sense of relief that is not The younger people are being affected by this to the same extent?

  • Well, when you're moving towards the end of your life, you have a perspective on it that is quite different from younger people.

  • So I'm really much more concerned with younger generations.

  • However, I'm prepared to do everything that I can from my, myself and my own generation to keep ourselves help healthy on operating in society rather than being a burden on disobeying and feeling.

  • It's just a nuisance.

  • It will pass.

  • We have to be realistic about see how serious this is for our generation as well as every other generation.

  • Indeed, Stay there, John.

  • We're gonna talk about all the other broad impact of this, and we don't have very much time to do so.

  • Let's try and rattle through it.

  • Katie, we've spoken in the studio quite a few times in the last two weeks.

  • I mean the economic impact of this, and I'm not just talking about market's going up and down, but the economic impact on tourism, on hotels, on airlines, on small businesses around the world.

  • This is seismic stuff, isn't it?

  • Can we recover from what we're going to have to?

  • But as you say that the sort of level of alarm that's coming out from the corporate world now from big companies and small companies around the world, this is seriously worrying.

  • You're seeing companies like be a thistle threat to us.

  • This is like nothing we've ever faced before.

  • This is a genuine This is Lehman Brothers on steroids.

  • The thing with Lehman Brothers on steroids is that Lehman Brothers was a financial crash and you could basically fix it with financial stuff.

  • This is not a financial crash, but the markets are treating it almost as if it's the same thing.

  • But I mean by that is that markets are moving around as violently as they did when Lehman went down.

  • It's been it's not just been a normal week in the office has been very hairy out there.

  • Then there was that fit into the famous Roosevelt comment.

  • I think the high to the Great Depression.

  • What we have to fear most is fear itself.

  • It seems to be that there's quite a lot of that stuff going on in the markets.

  • But on the other hand, fear is also probably keeping us alive, isn't it?

  • It is.

  • I think, what we're seeing at the moment it's tackling into our fight or flight can reactions.

  • People are in a state where if they are going to act in a sensible way, they need to feel the fear.

  • If they don't feel the fear, there is a risk that it don't act an act against society.

  • And that's why the prime minister presumably said what he said yesterday, which really put the fear into people.

  • And that's why the World Health Organization said very openly.

  • We've called this a pandemic, even though not much will change the way we approach this.

  • But we want you to wake up.

  • Absolutely.

  • We know that fear creates a prevention focus in individuals, and that means that they're going to start acting differently and look more for what could save their life and the lives of others.

  • Joan, when you're watching, I don't know How much television Or are you watching Vandal radio You listen to or Twitter?

  • You follow it.

  • Must it must drive you mad, especially in self isolation.

  • How do you deal with the fear that it seems to be engulfing all of us in society?

  • Well, what do you do about fear?

  • You confront it, You talk about it, You don't hide it away.

  • You you admit it and you see what you can do about it and you act upon it.

  • That's as much as we can do on.

  • It's all within human capacity to take it on board.

  • We need to support each other.

  • I'm in touch with other people of my generation.

  • I asked them each day how they're doing.

  • You know what jell they're making?

  • How do they get out?

  • A toy?

  • One of the terrible things.

  • This being locked in your homes, even can't go out for a walk, something I disobey.

  • I do go out for a walk.

  • I need fresh air.

  • So it's a matter of organizing your life to deal with it day by day.

  • Fear is a little term undermining sensation.

  • But if you deal with it day by day minute to minute.

  • Do what you can.

  • You can.

  • That's a way of coping.

  • Isn't isolating us join?

  • Or is it actually creating a sense of community that wasn't there before?

  • Perhaps briefly, but well, because we've all got mobile phones and on a lot of us on Skype and talking to each other, we're all in touch.

  • The Internet, Twitter, Facebook, these air really valuable ways of contacting.

  • Now there's loads going on, and I read about all the medical stock on on Twitter Nana on the threads that come up there so I'm not isolated, even though I'm on my own in my home.

  • Katie did just briefly before we go to a break, and this is a big concert out there.

  • But globalization, any global thing at the moment is the virus.

  • We've got Borders going up left, right and centre barricades flights being you're being stopped very briefly.

  • Is this the end of globalization?

  • I mean, that's probably too big of a question to answer.

  • I think the big hope is that we will get back to normal.

  • But I think what's dawning on people now is that's gonna take a really long time.

  • Well, much more interconnected than we realized financially in terms of commerce, everything.

  • I'm gonna ask you all a very simple, deep question at the end.

  • And you have to give me a brief answer.

  • How Ben, will this change everything that we do?

  • I think we could witness a change in values.

  • The Western world is very individualistic.

  • We care about ourselves first, informers and we could shift towards more collectivism, caring about others, taking care of the community rather than our selfish behaviour.

  • That optimistic?

  • I hope so.

  • Okay, Katie, what about you?

  • I just corrected really quickly and saying that I'm a journalist economist.

  • I think what we've learned from what has been quite a humbling experience in markets over the past few days, you know, traders and investors have spoken about this Being a diabolical experience is that we've been looking in the wrong places for the next market crisis.

  • We've been looking within markets for the seeds of the next crisis, and actually that crisis is as emerged from real life.

  • And I think it's a big lesson to investors that you have to look at the real world to find out where the real risk so and that includes things like pandemics and includes things like climate change.

  • Let me ask a supplemental to that great a tongue like once a world where we fly less and we produce less and we know we live more local.

  • And after this the other day, it could this be the result of that?

  • She didn't want to engage in that question because she didn't want the headline.

  • But is that not the case?

  • The possibility.

  • I can understand why she didn't want to engage with it, because it it just feeds the kind of nonsense conspiracy theories that this is all a hoax that's been cooked up by the kind of Green Brigade, which is not the case at all.

  • But it's certainly the case that, at least short term, we are living much more locally.

  • We're not travelling.

  • It's a very different world.

  • Joan Bakewell How's the world gonna change if it will change it all after this changed?

  • Changed utterly it There's no going back.

  • There's no normal anymore.

  • Everything has to be rethought.

  • Global government, global economies, the way we behave, one to another attitude, the cheap tricks of politics have got to be laid aside something serious is happening, and it needs being addressed seriously by everyone in a positive way.

  • Do you think there's a silver lining in all this?

  • Then?

  • Yes, every catastrophe is a new opportunity.

  • I mean, there is a new opportunity, but this needs to be some heavy rethinking, some really serious addressing.

  • I'm not playing political games.

  • This is serious on.

  • There are plenty of people who can address it wisely when we need to listen to them.

  • Un indeed, share in it, too.

  • But after silence, for instance, that crisis ended and then Asia went back to what it was doing before, and nothing really changed very much.

  • Things change all the time.

  • Don't there would perhaps don't realize the time we thought it was going to the planet that brought the crisis.

  • It isn't, it's a pandemic, and it's here.

  • So it's with us.

  • And we never anticipated it.

  • They didn't make a science fiction programs about it, but now they can't because it's real.

  • It's This is what we are part off.

  • This is the future Joan Bakewell.

  • Thank you very much indeed.

  • Kati Marton.

  • Ben, Vile.

  • Thank you very much to all of you for coming in on thanks to all our guests in the program.

  • And thanks to all of you for watching, we are all on a loving learning curve here right now.

  • Yes, these are very bleak times.

  • But we will end this program on an uplifting note.

  • Why not?

  • Residents of Sienna in Tuscany confined to their homes, singing to each other across streets, that air now deserted In that way, at least we could all aspire to become Italy.

  • Good night.

  • He way.

tonight in this special program, we pick up where the news has left off with the only thing that people are talking about.

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