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  • today we want to start a new topic.

  • We're gonna talk about asset values and interest rates.

  • And so anyway, as we start this, let's just talk about interest rates.

  • What those are.

  • I have heard a 1,000,000 people, possibly less than a 1,000,000 people.

  • I've heard many people talk about interest rates, and here's what they like to say.

  • And you should not write this down because I'm gonna tell you something's wrong.

  • Here's what they say.

  • Interest rate price of money?

  • No, the interest rate is the price of credit.

  • What's the difference?

  • Well, first of all, what do we mean by the price of something we mean what you have to give up in order to get it right.

  • And so if we were talking about the price of money, the price of money is what you have to give up more to get it.

  • And you can give up your labor service is you could give up goods and service is product.

  • And so if we talk about the price of money, the price of money is expressed in terms of the goods and service.

  • Is we give up or what?

  • What we give up in order to get.

  • That really doesn't sound right.

  • That didn't sound like the interest rate credit is alone.

  • And so the interest rate, her interest, That's what we pay to get alone.

  • And it could be borrowed money.

  • But you know what?

  • If you borrow something else, some other merchandise, not money, then you still have to pay for the use of that something.

  • And technically, that would be interest.

  • Also, back in the old days, before there was money and never is commodity monies and things like this are just commodities.

  • People would borrow commodities and pay interest for that loan.

  • And nowadays we might use the term rent or something like that you might go to Well, anyway, you want to go too far down that path.

  • But people paid for the use of various commodities.

  • So anyway, alone refers to credit, and the interest rate is the price of credit and were eventually in this unit going to get around and talk about what determines that price and gets one.

  • And there will be a lot of details that go into it.

  • But prices in markets get determined by two things.

  • What are they supply and demand And so we're gonna talk about supply and demand for credit and then that will determine the price of credit, the interest rate.

  • And so anyway, we'll eventually get around to that.

  • There's different ways of thinking about why I shouldn't say that.

  • The price of credits, what it is.

  • But it plays various roles in our economy.

  • One is this is it is an incentive two people to postpone spending.

  • Okay, For example, you goto work, you earn 1000 bucks.

  • You got 1000 bucks.

  • What you gonna do with it?

  • I couldn't just go out and spend it.

  • Well, if somebody comes along and says, Hey, if you'll loan me that money, I'll give you interest.

  • And what they're really saying about that is don't spend that money.

  • Let me spend Let me use it and then I'll pay you back later and you can spend right on dso when we get interest.

  • The way we get that interest is we don't spend everything we have on.

  • We postpone our spending until later, and so interest gives us an incentive to do that.

  • And also, let's just say you're in $1000 you spend $1000 and you want to spend more.

  • You want to spend $2000 you have to go out and borrow, and then you have to pay interest.

  • And so when you go out and pay interest, you're saying, Oh, man, that hurts.

  • Maybe I ought not to spend.

  • Maybe I oughta wait.

  • And again, we're back to this idea of postponement spending, okay?

  • And so anyway, this is an important role that is played by interest in our economy.

  • Let's kind of shift gears.

  • We're gonna talk about interest.

  • Ah, lot in this, uh, this unit of material.

  • But it's kind of shift gears and start talking about something else that will have interest blended into the discussion future value.

  • Okay.

  • And this starts off kind of simple, kind of slow.

  • Suppose that you have p dollars today?

  • All put little dollar sign up there, P.

  • And that could just be any number.

  • It could be $10 a $1,000,000 whatever you want.

  • But let's say you had P dollars today, and then you put that in a bank account or you invested in a bond or something like this, and you just let it sit there And now those dollars set there and then you come back one year hints one year from today and you say, Hey, how much?

  • Don't have not account well f dollars.

  • And by the way, you'll see this all in a few minutes anyway.

  • But I'm using P and f these air just, you know, symbols like the Exxon.

  • Why?

  • But I'm using the P because we're talking about the present amount of money okay today and then f ah, future amount of money.

  • And so I'm using letters here rather than the number because we're just using generalized notation.

  • Whatever we talk about.

  • If this were $10 the discussions the same as if it's a 1,000,000.

  • The specific numbers work out differently.

  • So anyway, we're just using these symbols to represent a certain number of dollars in the present.

  • A certain number of dollars in the future.

  • So how much is this and answer as well.

  • I would get back my p dollars.

  • Of course.

  • You know, in the future I would have the original amount.

  • Plus, I'd have interest, right if I put this money in a bank account and then I go back a year from now I would get back my p dollars, and I would also get back whatever the interest rate is.

  • I'll use this interest rate percent, and we'll put it in decimals.

  • So, like if it's 5% 0.5 but anyway, so if I go back a year from now, how much would be in my account in the future of my original P dollars pause interest multiplied by that original P dollars.

  • And so, if we let that be 5% and let's say P dollars are $100 today, then I go back at the end of a year.

  • I'd have my original $100 plus 5% 50.5 times the $100 equals 100 plus five equals $105 nearby with me on that.

  • That's kind of simple, right?

  • And by the way, I could factor a little bit here, and then it would look like this.

  • My f dollars, How much I would have in the future equals p times one plus I not taking that dollar sign out of their just cause we don't need that forever.

  • Okay, Pretty straight forward.

  • Right.

  • Well, what if I go back in two years.

  • We've got a simple case there.

  • I went back one year from now.

  • What if I go back in two years?

  • I put down P dollars today and then I leave it there and then I get F dollars and I wait two years.

  • Well, then, here's how much is there.

  • It's my original P dollars.

  • And then for the first year, I got interest on that P dollars.

  • And then in the second year, I got interest on that P dollars again, Is that it?

  • Anybody can hear me out there.

  • Perhaps there's a glass wall here.

  • Is that it?

  • Interest on the interest.

  • So here's what happened.

  • Here's what would happen.

  • I put my dollar in my money there, toe work, and it stays there and it works for one year.

  • And here's when.

  • I would have $105 right?

  • But I don't collect it.

  • I just let it stay there.

  • And so in the second year, I should get interest not only on my original $100 but here's another five bucks.

  • And so here's the interest on the original $100 for year two year one, but also in year two up.

  • What year to here?

  • I get interest on the first years interest, right?

  • And this I, times P.

  • That was the $5.

  • And so now it's just interest on interest.

  • How much is 5% of $5?

  • Pardon me.

  • 50 cents.

  • 25 cents.

  • Right.

  • So that's not a lot.

  • Is it?

  • That extra 25 cents.

  • And so what would we have?

  • We would have $100 plus 5% of the hundreds.

  • $5 5% of 100.

  • This $5 and 5% of $55 is 25 cents.

  • And so then what would you have?

  • $110.25.

  • Except we don't have to keep doing it this way.

  • What I could do is do a little bit of factory, just as I did before.

  • And here's what I get P.

  • Times one plus race a little bit here.

  • Plus I p i p huh?

  • To I Okay, and then here's a P.

  • And in I square.

  • Well, that's a nice expression.

  • Now this is back where you remember in fourth grade in your sand.

  • Why do I have to do that learned to factor things because this can be simplified to p times.

  • I mean, the P isn't being simplified, but this thing right here is one plus I to the second power squared.

  • I don't know if you did that, but that's what I said.

  • Fourth grade.

  • Why do I have to be able to factor?

  • I'll never use that again.

  • No, just for the rest of my life.

  • Well, let's go back over here after one year, I put a one up there, but that was a woman up there, Pete.

  • Times one plus I to the first power after two years P times to the second power.

  • Well, guess what?

  • I could just write a more general formula.

  • And here's what it looks like if equals p my original amount of my office.

  • How much I get back in the future, By the way, I'm gonna put a little footnote that are, ah, sub script down here.

  • I'll say t t as in some point in the future sometime period.

  • Okay.

  • Equals my original amount of money.

  • Times one plus I.

  • This is the interest rate in decimals raised to the T power.

  • However many years I have to wait.

  • Now hear T is a sub script with the F and it's just telling us tea time.

  • How many years do I have to wait to get my money back?

  • And then this tea, Though it has a mathematical value, we are raising this one, plus I to a power.

  • And so if I put that money there and I wait 30 years, then this would be $100 times 1.5 There's my interest.

  • And then if I wait 30 years 30 is my ex opponent, okay.

  • However long you wait, that's how much will be there in that account.

  • I'm not gonna do this calculation.

  • I started it, but I want to do something else, not only get sidetracked here.

  • So this is our general formula.

  • The 1st 2 years, one year, two years, I kind of expanded that to kind of show you what a person would do.

  • We could have come back here and said, I wait three years and and add another I pee and then another interest on this interested in another years, we could do that, but this is just the general statement right here.

  • So if you invest some money in the present.

  • This is today how much you invest.

  • One is just one is the loneliest.

  • Number one is just the number one.

  • The eye is the interest rate that were earning or the rate of return we're earning in decimals.

  • Right?

  • And so then and T is how long that money is working for us.

  • Okay.

  • And so there's how much would show up in that account later on.

  • Now we did this.

  • I want to come back and talk about it just a little bit more moment ago.

  • This is 25 cents.

  • Remember, this is interest on interest.

  • What do you call that?

  • Compound interest?

  • Interest on interest is compound interest.

  • What?

  • We call this interest on the principal amount simple interested?

  • And so here's what we had.

  • We had $10.

  • This is with the two year investment.

  • We had $10 in simple interest.

  • We had 25 cents and compound interest.

  • And, you know, you could just I mean, a person could say Gosh, 25 cents.

  • Who cares?

  • Almost.

  • Who cares?

  • But here's the deal.

  • Compound interest matters not so much in two years and not so much and three.

  • But over the long term, it matters a lot.

  • I just mentioned 30 years.

  • Let's talk about 30 years for just a second.

  • Let's say that we just said, Well, compound interest is so small.

  • Let's ignore it and just leave it out of the story.

  • Let's say all we got with simple interested interest on our original $100.

  • How much would be there in 30 years?

  • Well, we'd have our original $100 right?

  • And then we'd have $5 an interest a year.

  • Simple interest on our principal.

  • Our original amount times 30 years.

  • So that would be $150 100 plus 152 150 bucks.

  • And so if we leave the compound interest off makes it a lot simpler, doesn't.

  • Then if we get into all those exponents and things like that, if we leave the compound interest off and just go with the simple interest, we got that number.

  • And you know, if we'd done that here and left the 25 cents off rather than send 100 and $10.25 we said 110 and you might go, you know that's close enough for government work.

  • It's not exact, but it's pretty cold.

  • So how close is it?

  • If it's a 30 year deal, though, is it to 50?

  • How far off is at 2 50?

  • And so let me get the calculator out and I'll say $100 is my present value.

  • My investment.

  • Five percents.

  • The interest rate.

  • I'm gonna let it go for 30 years.

  • I'm gonna do that again.

  • Couldn't be $14 million could it?

  • That's not what it showed up.

  • Ah, okay, I've got a microphone on and I said, Edit that out.

  • $432 in 19 cents.

  • That's what the compound interest in here with the two year deal.

  • It was worth 25 cents, and you could almost ignore it.

  • Wouldn't buy a soda, but the compound interest once minus 2 50 The compound interest in this particular case is what ah, $182.19 compound interest in quite a bit.

  • Then, if I draw you a graph and I like to draw the graphs, here's what we have here is our dollars, and we'll start off with 100 bucks.

  • Here's I f and we'll start off of that amount.

  • And then well, this is T.

  • And so what we see is this If we have simple interest, then what happens is every year we get another five bucks, and if we have compound interest, what happens in starts going up like that?

  • Okay.

  • And this is simple plus compound interest.

  • This is F plus.

  • What would a B I t Okay, the Maybe I should do in a different order.

  • T i p The number of years multiplied by what the simple interest.

  • And then this formula is just what I wrote before equal to f times one plus i to the t and the difference between these two the vertical def distance at any single point in time.

  • We want to choose after one year, two years, three years, five years.

  • Whatever the difference between those is the compound part.

  • And so yeah, it's very small like it in one year.

  • There's no difference.

  • But after that, what we have in two years, that's a 25 cents difference.

  • And yeah, you can't ignore it, but it just gets bigger and bigger.

  • And you know what?

  • The longer it stays, the bigger it gets and it gets huge over time.

  • And I mean here and I will just leave that as an experiment.

  • You can perform at home if you like to expand out, make it go 100 years and see what happens.

  • I could do that.

  • 100 years.

  • I think of this 1 50 No.

  • And so then what you have?

  • How much would it be in 100 years for his only simple interest?

  • Maybe 100 times five.

  • That's 500 interest.

  • Bush original, 106 100 bucks.

  • So this would go to 600?

  • Well, with compound interest, 13,000.

  • So there's $12,500 worth of compound interest.

  • The longer you let that grow, the bigger it gets now.

  • So I guess what I'm doing, I'm doing a couple things.

  • One is I'm telling you about this compound interest in sort of showing you how it's growing exponentially.

  • The other thing I'm telling you, this is if you hope to live until retirement, you hope to be not poor.

  • And one way of not being poor when you retire is to save money.

  • And the sooner you save, the more that compound and works for you.

  • And what you do is wait until you're 40.

  • And let's say you want to retire.

  • When you're 65 you wait till you're 40 retired 65 you say for 20 years, and that compound interest is working for you.

  • But if you start saving JR 25 you retired 65 then you've got 40 years with calm pounding on, boy.

  • I mean, this thing gets steep.

  • And if you could wait, you know, what was the story about the, uh uh, The Europeans came and bought Manhattan Island from the Indians living there, and they paid, like, a $12 worth of money beads, a few too fat, $12 invested it for about 600 years.

  • That wouldn't be that long.

  • Would it be, uh, how many years would be from like 1600 till today?

  • Be four or 500 years.

  • You invest $12 for four or 500 years and guess what?

  • It's a.

  • It runs into billions.

  • And so the longer you put that money away, the more the compound and works for you.

  • And it's not just working for you a little.

  • It's exponential.

  • We're on interest rates.

  • Oh, where do you find interest of 5%?

  • A lot of places.

  • Bye percent's not an outrageous interest rate.

  • My savings.

  • Your savings account is a 0.5%.

  • Well, that's not where you found it, then.

  • Okay, but Bonds, corporate bonds.

  • You could buy a mutual fund that's investing you can buy today, and interest rates change over time.

  • But today, the interest rate on a 30 year Treasury bonds is how much?

  • 4.2%.

  • 4.25%.

  • So that's not quite.

  • But I mean, that is, it's safe, assuming the government doesn't go bankrupt.

  • Uh, that is safe, but you could go out to corporations and so forth and buy a corporate bond and get about 5%.

  • And I don't mean to say just any corporation, but you buy, ideally, a mutual fund that is investing in corporate bonds.

  • And it's investing in corporate bonds from, you know, large companies that have been in business for 100 years or Maura and are very likely to stay in business, pay their bills, you know that sell all kinds of products, a General Electric and IBM and ATT and T and things like that.

  • And so you could get above 5% None.

  • Your savings account, not in a passbook savings account, probably has no maturity date on and so forth.

  • Interest rates are low on that right now.

  • But anyway, there's a lot of places to get that I had, um, Bonds issued by banks years ago, and they were paying 12%.

  • And, you know, that was pretty good.

  • And there was only one problem is that bank went out of business and I got my money back.

  • I didn't really want it back.

  • I want it back someday, but I wanted to earn 12% for 30 years.

  • Then they went broken about three.

  • So there you go.

  • Anyway.

  • Let's go back.

  • I want to use this and talk about something else.

  • A rule of thumb called the Rule of 72 and it basically it's consistent with all this stuff.

  • But it's a rule of thumb and what we say rule of thumb.

  • We do not mean this is exact out to six decimal places and so forth.

  • We're talking about something that is, you know, it's a kind of a rule that you can remember and maybe do some calculations on the back of the envelope sometime when you don't have a calculator with you.

  • And what the rule of 72 is about is this question How long for my investment that double in value We kind of switch gears a little bit different letters here, but you'll be able to figure this out.

  • Fine.

  • Annual rate of return interest if you like.

  • And then tea time four investment to double, double in value.

  • So in this particular case, this is not his exactly what we're doing before, But in this particular case, we're gonna let this rate of return.

  • We're going to express that whole numbers.

  • Okay, If we don't want to do that when we have a rule of 0.72 we're not gonna do that.

  • Anyway.

  • Rule is 72 so now, if we had 5% would just put a five up here rather than 50.5 Okay, So anyway, I'm gonna taken easier number to work with.

  • Here's what the rule of 72 says 72 equals.

  • If let's say we get a 6% rate of return, I put a six in my formula times t time to double the money.

  • Divide each side of that formula by six.

  • Cancel, you know about canceling.

  • And so then that's 12.

  • Right?

  • 12 equal T.

  • What's 12 mean?

  • It means this.

  • If you invested some money and it's only 6% a year 12 years from now, then you'd have twice as much money.

  • This is when we don't take anything out, and that's what we're talking about for.

  • We're not take anything out each year.

  • We're just leaving it there for 12 years, and then there'll be twice as much money.

  • If it were $100 then there'll be 100 and $6 after the first year.

  • In the second year, there'd be 100 and $12.36.

  • There'll be $12 simple interest after two years and then that 36 cents to be interest on interest would be 6% of $6 in the first year and so forth, and it would grow and it would compound.

  • And then over the years it would be double.

  • Suppose you get 8%.

  • What's our answer?

  • 72 equals eight times Thief.

  • How much is it.

  • This team now nine equal t.

  • Now I express this in terms of an investment.

  • It's not just an investment.

  • Our economy grows on average over the long run.

  • The economy U.

  • S economy, in real terms grows about 3% a year.

  • And so if the economy grows 3% a year and we come back, 72 equals three times T, then what we would find out is that in about 24 years, the size of the economy will double in value.

  • Okay, in recent years, we've had Oh, I don't know, let's say 2% inflation.

  • If prices rise 2% a year than in 36 years, prices will be twice as high as they are today.

  • The average price, not each price.

  • If we go back over a generation, prices have gone up in about a 3% rate.

  • And so prices rise at a 3% rate than every 24 years.

  • They would double in value.

  • Ah, house that's $100,000 a day.

  • Be about $200,000 in 24 years.

  • A car this 20,000.

  • 40,000.

  • Okay.

  • Suppose that you weigh £150 and suppose you're waiting to is up 2%.

  • How much is that?

  • Has £3 a year, right?

  • And so you weigh 150 then next year you 153 and you say, you know that's not much.

  • And so now your weight's going up 2% a year.

  • I'm sorry.

  • Yeah, 2% a year and 36 years.

  • Okay, maybe you're 20 today.

  • 36 years.

  • Your 56 years old and you wait £300 was being 92.

  • When you're 92 you weigh £600.

  • You don't want to gain 2% of years what I'm saying.

  • Find that optimum and lock it in.

  • Or just don't grow it.

  • A compound rate.

  • Just grow by £1 a year or £2 or £3 but don't grow at 2%.

  • That's what'll get you.

  • Is the compound weight gain right?

  • If you're going to percent a year, right.

  • And if you can just get that simple growth, Justin, extra £3 a year, you move up this car.

  • I don't know if this is making any sense to you, because it doesn't make any sense.

  • But the numbers are there and the numbers make sense.

  • Now, where is this rule of 72 come from?

  • Well, some people just worked with the numbers.

  • I have a colleague that wrote a paper about this.

  • Some people worked at the numbers and they just came up with.

  • And, um, how accurate is it?

  • How record.

  • Let's do something like this.

  • I've got a calculator.

  • I'll do the calculation.

  • Suppose that we started off with $100 today and we use that formula we had before the F equals p times one plus I to the T.

  • What our rule of 72 is telling us is this.

  • If this is 720.6 and this is 12 right, there's a rule of 70 says Double your money.

  • Let me do that calculation.

  • I'll say we start off with $100 6% a year, 12 years Now, what would our formula tell us that we have in that account?

  • $201.22?

  • So is that pretty close?

  • You know, that's pretty close.

  • That's pretty close for just being ableto pull out a piece of paper and just do this in a few seconds to say I got an answer.

  • It's not exactly I mean, that's not gonna get you through an accounting class or a math class.

  • But that's what the rule is.

  • 72 is going to tell us, and so very often it's Ah, it's kind of a useful thing to have, um, what this colleague found out when he did this study is, sometimes you'd be depends.

  • Sometimes you're a little bit better off of the rule of 71 sometimes you're a little bit better off of the Rule 73.

  • You know that when you were working with rules of thumb, it's not always exact.

  • The problem was 71 73 almost any other number is those air difficult numbers toe manipulating your mind?

  • There's a lot of things that go into 72 though you can put two into it.

  • 34689 12 Ah, lot of numbers will divide into 72 so it's pretty close.

  • You can just kind of use the rule of something.

  • Here's when it's further off when it when it the error is bigger, is when these two things that are in the tea when they are further apart.

  • Okay, when they're like.

  • But if they are close, like eight and nine, you get a pretty good rule of 72.

  • But if they're further apart, let's just say that you're getting 1% a year.

  • So you start off with $100.

  • Okay, then.

  • Oh, you know, what I was gonna do is differently.

  • Let's say you got 72% a year.

  • There we go, and you start off $100.

  • You get 72% a year.

  • At the end of the year, you got 100 $72.

  • Well, Rule 72 would say, one year it doubles.

  • Well, that's pretty far off.

  • Now.

  • We're 28 bucks off.

  • So the rule of 72 is not so good when these air far apart when you're closer together, it's pretty good.

  • So anyway, there's our story on future value, and there's our our story on rule 72.

  • A couple things I would add to it on one of them.

  • And it is this that well, I use the term compound interest, interest on interest.

  • What I have assumed here is that we compound once a year that you put the $100 in it stays there for a year.

  • Announced 100 and $5.

  • I was working to 5%.

  • And then you leave for another year and you're getting 5% on the previous year.

  • What if you get calm pounding every day?

  • What if they were paying interest on a daily basis?

  • What if they took that 5% and divide it by 3 65 said, you know, I'm gonna pay you that much interest a year, So then we would have daily compound.

  • We could have monthly compound in quarterly compound.

  • And so what I'm saying to you is that we started off with this example appear where we just have Well, not that that's a rule of 72 but that formula.

  • We were just saying express this on an annual basis, and then that was the end of our story.

  • So and then what we would say is that, uh, annual compound if we wanna have more frequent compound, and then we would come in and express both of these things on a different basis.

  • And so if we were calm pounding, let's say daily and we're talking about three years.

  • Then we would express our interest rate annual rate, 5% divide by 3 65 and that would go in as the interest rate.

  • And then if it were three years to be three times 365 that many compound in periods that many not years but compound periods.

  • If we were compound in on a quarterly basis, then what we'd do is we'd say, Oh, well, I would have 5% divided by four.

  • So there before compound in periods a year.

  • And then if it were three years, then there would be, what, 4/4 per year times three years, this would be a 12 12 power.

  • And so any way we can make adjustments to this formula, what we're gonna do is use annual compound in.

  • But I just want you to know that there is no sort of problem with this.

  • It's just a matter of how you express these time periods and your interest rate.

  • But once you get the time periods and interest rate correct, then you can just work with sort of any compound period you want.

  • Okay, Um anyway, one final thing.

  • What would the final thing be when I talk about interest, we I've always used, like 5%.

  • We also want to be able to work with fractional interest rates, like if it's five and 1/4 percent than what we would use in our formulas.

  • 0.525 right?

  • So again, we're always going to be using decimals and in this formula, not a rule of 72.

  • And the other thing I would mention to use this is, and this is just terminology of people who do business in financial markets.

  • They would say This is 25.

  • This is the fractional part of a percent 25 basis points.

  • That's the 0.25 Well, really, this is 500 basis points, right?

  • So the 5.25% another way of expressing it would be 525 basis points.

  • That's a terminology, Ah, 100 basis points per 1%.

  • Then Dad is the terminology used in financial markets to describe interest, and I'm saying that now because there are other occasions when this can come up questions about this.

  • Okay, well, here's the good news.

  • The next topic is just exactly the same as this.

  • Only the opposite is that the good news?

  • And here's what I mean by that we write the same formula down.

  • We've got some future money and the value that future investment or their value.

  • That investment in the future is what we start off with today times one plus I to the t power.

  • This would be and just kind of think about this.

  • Suppose you went to the bank and you said, Hey, Mr Banker.

  • Hey, Miss Banker, I want to give you $100 now and I'll come back in three years or five years or eight years.

  • Whatever the number is, I'll come back.

  • How much will be in my accountant, and that's what this formula before Sometimes we have investments where that's not the question.

  • Sometimes we have investments where this number is locked in the future amount.

  • For example, suppose you buy a bond.

  • If you buy a bond today, you hand over some money today the present amount of money, but the amount you'd get back in the future that's locked in the bonds of contract.

  • It's got the specific amounts of money that you get back on specific dates.

  • And in that particular case, when this has locked in the future amount of money Oh, I'm buying a bond.

  • It matures.

  • It's worth $1000.

  • 30 years on today, when that has locked in, then the question you start asking us, Gosh, how much would I be willing to pay right now?

  • How much would I be willing to put down right now to get that $1000?

  • 30 years from today?

  • So sometimes that's the question we ask.

  • So here's what we do.

  • We say, Hey, I've got a formula.

  • The thing I want to solve for now is how much am I willing to pay to buy that bond or that future promise of money?

  • The future promised.

  • The money is locked in, there's a contract.

  • And so here's what we do.

  • We divide both sides by this thing in parenthesis, right?

  • That's mathematical.

  • Illegal to divide both sides of a formula by the same thing over here, cancels.

  • And so let me just rewrite this and I'm gonna reverse sides.

  • But anyway, here's what it says.

  • P equals F T over one, plus I to the t.

  • I'm gonna annotate this.

  • So we've got all the details here.

  • Future value of investment T years hands.

  • Two years from now we've talked about these other things.

  • This is our rate of return and decimals.

  • Here's the years hands.

  • And then what we would say about this is this is the present value of F dollars to be received t years from today.

  • 50 years hence.

  • And just because I don't wanna wait until the day before the test Yes, there is the answer.

  • Yes.

  • You need to know this formula so you can do the present value calculations.

  • You'll be able to use a financial calculator.

  • Yeah, but guess what?

  • There are some calculations that are a little bit sophisticated and your financial calculators not fixed up to do that.

  • So I mean, if you know everything about your financial calculator, you could probably get you an answer.

  • But you can't just, like, push four buttons to say there's my answer.

  • And so it would be bad if you knew that formula and did a couple examples.

  • I will bring you some homework to do.

  • And it won't be where you turn it in for a credit, but some homework just for practice.

  • So that you'd be able to do this.

  • So, anyway, I've got an investment.

  • It's gonna give me some money in the future.

  • Suppose that somebody said this to you?

  • Hey, I'll give you $1000.5 years from now.

  • $1000?

  • Five years.

  • Would you give $1000 for that promise?

  • If you had $1000 today, would you give it to somebody and say, Just give me $1000 back five years from now?

  • No, If you got 1000 bucks, why give it up to get back 1000 bucks later?

  • You might have some use for that 1000 bucks in the meantime, and also, you could take that 1000 bucks and earn some interest on it.

  • And so, no, don't give it to somebody and just say Give it back to me later.

  • And so the rule that we're going by here is a present.

  • Dollar is more valuable than a future dollar.

  • That's kind of like saying a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

  • Well, here's what we do.

  • If somebody promises you future dollars, we decrease their value when we start talking About what?

  • When we translate with their value.

  • Presently, this process right here, you see how we decrease their value.

  • Here is a promises of some future money.

  • The way we decrease that to see its present values, we divide it by something bigger than one.

  • This process is called discounting to present value discounting.

  • What?

  • Discounting future dollars to present value?

  • Okay, discounting present our future dollars to their present value.

  • Okay.

  • And you can see that it's discount.

  • We've got a future number and we're converting it to a present number.

  • But we're dividing that future number by one.

  • If it were only one, that'd be the end of it, right?

  • If our interest rate, we're zero.

  • If we just said, you know, I don't want any interest, I couldn't earn any interest in the story.

  • Then this would be one plus zero.

  • That's Hey, that's one.

  • And so there would be no discounting, really a future dollars present dollar equally valuable.

  • But as long as there is any interest there, then we're going to divide that future dollar by a number bigger than one.

  • And so then, when we converted over in today's value, it'll be smaller than that future dollars a future number of dollars with the ah calculation.

  • Let's say something like this F equals out of no.

  • 500 bucks, Let's say and let's say the interest rate is equal to will use 5% because we've used it before.

  • And then let's say that the tea is, I don't know, three years I was three.

  • I will put this into our formula.

  • Present value equals $500 divided by 1.5 to the third power.

  • So here we've converted our denominator.

  • And as I said before, we're gonna divide that future amount of money by a number bigger than one.

  • And here it's about 16% not quite 16% bigger than one.

  • So we're kind of discounting those future dollars by about 16%.

  • But anyway, when we do this, when they do the calculation here, so what?

  • 500 divided by 1.1576 25 $431.92.

  • And what I'm saying is this these have equal value to you.

  • If you've got the scales, they're in your head or in your calculator or whatever in your financial calculator, and you're saying, Gosh, What sequel?

  • What's if somebody promises?

  • Made $500.3 years?

  • And now how much would you have to put on the scales over here to make me feel equally good today?

  • And the answer is $431.92 and in the scales of you balance and you say, Gosh, I don't care if I have $500.3 years for now or for 31 92 today they're all the same.

  • And if they're not, then this interest rates not 5% if that.

  • If you are discounting those 5% a year than those air of equal value and you just flipped a coin so I don't care which one I get.

  • Hey, questions about this.

  • This thing right here, this 5% I told you this term is called discounting to present value.

  • This interest rate right here is called the discount rate, and later in the semester we will talk about the Federal Reserve and we'll have a different discount rate.

  • You need to be able to figure out what I'm talking about by the context, how it's being used.

  • But the discount rate is the interest rate that we use in these calculations to reduce future dollars to their present value, and that is what we'll pick up with next time.

  • But we will work more with this present value formula.

  • So long.

  • See you next time.

today we want to start a new topic.

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A2 初級

お金と銀行講義6 - 金利と現在価値 1 (Money and Banking: Lecture 6 - Interest Rates and Present Value 1)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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