Butasyoumightexpectsincethesituationisnotgoingtostopevolvingatthebudget, therewillbethingsthatwewillneedtokeepmonitoringandfurtherpolicydecisionsandactionstobetakenasasdemandedbythesituationwealreadysawinthelastquarterof a slowingah, extremeslowingofGDPgrowth.
ThisisinvestmentininCanadaandinCanadiansandinvestmentthatwilladjustastheinformationin a situationevolved.
So a numberofeconomistswe'vebeenspeakingwithoverthepastfewdayshavetalkedaboutthetypeofstimulusthatmightbenecessaryandandtriedtoquantifyitforusandwhatthey'veallsortof, Ah, comeintheballparkofussomewherebetween 20 and $40 billion.
It's notjustpossible, though I takeyourpointonthefactthatit's fluidandthatwedon't havecertaintyaboutwhatistocome.
Butwesawgrowthslowinthelastquarter.
Alreadywe'veseenoilpricesandthereforerevenues, evenifjustinAlberta, notjustinAlberta, ratherbutforthecountryas a whole, they'regoingtobeimpactedaswell, RightCoronavirushasimpacted a numberofofsectorsoftheeconomyandcertainlytheglobaleconomyandtherehasnotbeen a globalrecessiontowhichCanadahasbeentotallyimmune.
So I thinkit's fairmaybetoask.
I understandthatyourgovernmenthasn't made a decisiononthat, butisityoursensethatstimuluswouldberequiredintheneighborhoodof 20 to $40 billion?
Andareyouwilling, as a governmenttoaddthatmuchtothedeficitwherewe'recertainlyable?
Thisbeingsaid, weneedtodoit, butonlyin a fiscallyresponsiblewaybutin a mannerwhichisfullyintouchwithhowCanadiansfairandhowworkersandbusinessesthriveacrossCanadadependsonallsortsofthings.
Butwehavethepowerandwehavethewillingthewillandtheabilitytomake a differenceif a differenceisneeded.
Areyousureaboutthat?
TheconservativescontendthatyourpartyhashaslaidthecoveredbearthatthoughyouclaimthefiscalcapacityexistsbecauseofthedebttoGDPratio, thereis a $26 billiondeficit.
Rightnow, wehaven't eventakenintoaccountthepromisesthatyourpartymadeduringtheelection, whichamounttoquite a bitofmoney.
Butnowwe'refacing a differentchallengeandwestillhavethewillandtheabilitytoinvestinCanadiansinCanadatoaddressthecurrentchallengebymadepollsbythecoronavirus.
Theonlypoint I wouldmakethereisthatgrowthwasslowingbeforeCoronavirushit.
I knowthosemeasuresarebeingdiscussedbythetwogovernments, andwhentheyareknownandabletobeimplemented, I knowmycolleagueMinisterFreedomwillbeableandhappytoannouncethemisthegovernmentconsideringdirectaidtoAlberta?
Well, wearemindfulofthechallengesandtheconcernsofCanadiansinthecurrentsituationandasyousaidcorrectlyjust a momentago, thesituationiscomplicatedby a numberoffactorscoronaviruseswithinyourkeyfactor.
GivenhowhardthatprovinceisgoingtobehitWell, I thinkyou'llfindoutverysooninthenextfewdaysatouragewillbenefitallCanadiansandprobablyevenMaurthoseregionswherewefaceMaurseverechallengesbecauseoflowergrowthinthelastfewyears.
Thousandsofflightsgrounded, million's underquarantine, financialmarketsin a tailspinandoilpricescrashinglikeit's the 1991 GulfWar.
AstheCoronavirusspreadsaroundtheglobe, Canada's economyisundoubtedlytaking a toll.
ButjusthowmuchandcanthiscountrywhetheritAveryShenfeldisthemanagingdirectorandchiefeconomistat C I B C.
HejoinsusfromToronto.
Hi, MrShenfeld.
Greattoseeyouagain.
Nicetobehere.
SoafterAh, historicallybaddayyesterday, marketsdidappeartorebound a bit.
Today.
What's yourinterpretationofhowthingswent?
Thisisallaboutwhathappensafterwhathappensnext.
So I thinkweallhavebracedourselvesforthefactthateconomicactivitiesgoingtodeclineinthecomingquarter, notnotobviouslyinCanadabutjustabouteverywhereincludingCanadaontheissue, iswhathopeisthereafterthat.
And I thinkmarketsarestartingtofocusinonwhetherfiscalauthorities, includingthe U.
S.
Airgoingtoprovidesomestimulus, somesortoftaxreliefthatmightthenrestoregrowth a littleearlier.
That's reallywhatwe'retalkingabout.
Andsowhenyoutalkaboutwhatthey'relookingfor, whatthemarketsarelookingfor, doyouanticipatewe'llbeinfor a bitof a roduntilthere's somecertaintyaroundthat?
I thinkaslongastheheadlineskeepflashingeverydayaboutmorecases, particularlyMaurcasesinthe U.
S.
Youknow, it's onethingforthestockmarkets, particularlyonWallStreet, ifsomeoneinChinaorKoreaisgettingsomething, butwhentheirbuddyyousitsnexttothemonthetradingdeskonWallStreetgetsthesameillnessseemstohave a muchbiggereffect.
So I don't thinkwe'reoutofthewoodsyetintermsofthishittoconfidenceinthemarketsor, forthatmatter, thehittotheconfidenceintheeconomyas a whole.
Howsignificantisthenthe U.
S.
Effortstocontainthespreadwheremarketconfidenceisconcerned, whereeconomicconfidenceisconcernedandthere's a bunchofmixedmessagingaroundthatrightnow.
Sothegovernment's air, in a bitof a quandary, Howmucheconomicactivitydoyougiveupnowonwhatrewarddoyougetintermsofslowingthepeakrates, atleastofcontagiondowntheroad?
AndwhatareyourexpectationsintheCanadiancontextof?
And I and I fullyunderstandthisisnotaneasythingtopredictatall.
Itwasonlyinthelastfewdaysthatweknewthatoilwasplungingus, farasitdid, andreallyonlyinthelastcoupleofweeksthatwesawthespreadofthecontagioninthe U.
S andbudgetstakesmonthsofwork.
So I thinkevenintheWhiteHousetherewas a falseannouncementthattherewasgoingtobe a taxstimulusplanunveiledonTuesday.
AndthenthepeoplewhoworkaroundMrTrumpsaid, Well, weactuallydon't havethatyet, rightwhenitcomestothepotentialforlargerstimulusagain, takingintoaccounteverythingthatyoujustlaidout, we'veheardifyouwanttomake a bigdent, ifyouwanttocreateanactualimpact, youneedsomethingintheneighborhoodof 20 to $40 billion.
Isthataccurate?
Fromwhereyousaidso, I think 40 wouldbebattling a hugerecession.
20 wouldbe a modernrecession.
10 billionwouldstilldosomethingsobutit's inthe $10 billionrangebeforeitreallymakes a differenceonDSO.
That's whyit's notsoeasytodoatthedropof a hat, becauselayingoutwho's goingtogetwhatmoneyandwhenandhowisnotanexercisethatyoucandoin a fewdays, particularlyifyouwanttomakesurethatthemoneyisgoingtotheplaceswhereit's goingtobemosteffective, eitherandliftinggrowthduringthisslowpatch, youmightnotbeabletodothat.
Encourage a quickerrevitalisationofeconomyifpeoplehavesavedupsomeofthemoneytheygotfromOttawaorbusinesseshavebeenshelteredinsomewayandthereforearmorabletostartspendingandrehiringagain.
Okay, I'm gonnaleaveitthere.
Thankyou, MrShenfeld.
Pleasureisalwaystohaveyouon.
Appreciateyourinsightsthisevening.
Welcome.
I recognizethattherearegoingtobesignificanteconomicimpactsforCanadians, forworkers, forbusinesses.