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  • I recognize that there are going to be significant economic impacts for Canadians, for workers, for businesses.

  • That's why we're gonna be talking very soon about measures of Canada's gonna put forward to support people on the economic side.

  • On the health side, would continue to act in ways recommended by the top experts by top men and medical professionals.

  • Coordinate with other levels of government.

  • Coordinate with the international community.

  • Do everything we can to keep ensuring that Canadians are kept.

  • An economic distress call is sounding, and the prime minister is promising to answer it.

  • CBC News has learned Tomorrow Hi there and welcome to power and politics and dashi Capello's from financial markets and oil prices to travel and trade.

  • The Corona virus outbreak is posing a serious threat to the global economy, including Canada.

  • Justin Trudeau insists measures to help those most affected are coming tomorrow.

  • Specifically, he'll announce supports, CBC has learned for those facing immediate pressures, with more aid for other sectors to be announced in the coming days.

  • Take a listen.

  • My 99% of the cases that occurred last night occurred outside of China.

  • This isn't China right now.

  • The F E Center.

  • The new China is Europe.

  • Here are the latest Corona virus numbers.

  • It'll give you an idea why so many countries air making announcements, including this one.

  • Nearly 114,000 cases have been confirmed worldwide.

  • The number of deaths now tops 4000.

  • 110 countries in total are affected.

  • And according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the U.

  • S, China is no longer ground zero.

  • Italy is the hardest hit country outside of China.

  • The entire nation of 60 million people is under lock down after its death toll surpassed 600.

  • In response, Air Canada has suspended flights to and from Italy.

  • Here in Canada, there are now 80 cases of covert 19 across four provinces.

  • But that could change.

  • We're set to bring you live press conferences this evening from Edmonton and Victoria.

  • Health officials still say the risk of contracting the virus in this country remains low.

  • But what about the economic risk?

  • How does the government plan to protect the bottom lines of businesses, sectors and Canadians most affected by this outbreak?

  • Jeannie Do Chlo is the president of the Treasury Board.

  • He's also the vice chair of the government's special Cabinet committee on Cove it 19.

  • He joins us from the House of Commons.

  • Prime Minister.

  • Do close.

  • Thanks for making time.

  • Hello.

  • Hello, Everyone listening.

  • My understanding, minister, is that your government is set to announce tomorrow some support for people affected by Corona virus and provinces as well.

  • Can you tell us specifically what you'll be announcing in the minister of Freedom?

  • And myself and other members of the Cabinet Committee on the corner virus have made important recommendations today and more will be known on that in the next few days.

  • Well, can you give us some specifics about those recommendations?

  • What can Canadians expect?

  • For example, are we going to see a reduction of E I wait times an expansion of the AI program?

  • Well, these decisions of recommendations will, as you said, will be related to helping workers and families and businesses thrive and sustain themselves in the important events that we're currently undertaking.

  • So they will be designed to have go through the crisis table, re supportive of not only the health and the safety of Canadians, but also the economic security of workers and their families.

  • and what's announced, the will that be the totality of the government's response?

  • Or can we expect more in the budget?

  • No, that will be a start because, as you know, the situation is quickly changing.

  • We are following every day the situation.

  • We're having committees committee members almost every day.

  • The situation is challenging for many Canadians and we'll be evolving.

  • Look at the situation and therefore an evolving reaction on the part of the government of Canada.

  • So there is more to come in the budget.

  • Is that fair to say the budget will be, of course, another important moment.

  • But as you might expect since the situation is not going to stop evolving at the budget, there will be things that we will need to keep monitoring and further policy decisions and actions to be taken as as demanded by the situation we already saw in the last quarter of a slowing ah, extreme slowing of GDP growth.

  • That is what is anticipated to persist, if not get worse because of Corona virus.

  • Is your government considering fiscal stimulus?

  • Well, the first let me say that we want to reassure Canadians that in Canada the health situation is under control.

  • Our risk is modest.

  • This being said we won't also want to reassure Canadians of the government is very focused on the situation.

  • It will take every action necessary to sustain our our economic growth and to protect 1/2 and security off every Canadian wherever they may happen to live with respect.

  • Minister, That doesn't answer specifically the question where stimulus is concerned.

  • Is that under consideration?

  • Is fiscal stimulus under consideration by your government right now?

  • Yes.

  • By definition, this is fiscal stimulus.

  • This is investment in in Canada and in Canadians and investment that will adjust as the information in a situation evolved.

  • So a number of economists we've been speaking with over the past few days have talked about the type of stimulus that might be necessary and and tried to quantify it for us and what they've all sort of, Ah, come in the ballpark of us somewhere between 20 and $40 billion.

  • If you want stimulus to actually have in effect, it has to be about that size, given the size of of ah, of growth of GDP in this country and the size of the economy is that your assessment as well, but that that all depends on how the situation evolves Currently.

  • As I said earlier, and as we all know, the situation in Canada is quite different from what we see elsewhere in the world.

  • So the safety and the health of Canadians or protected and ensured in a manner which is quite different from other conditions across the planet.

  • The same thing for the economic situation.

  • We are the start of a possibly big in back on the curtain on the economy.

  • That's also but that's only possible.

  • We need to be responsible and following the situation and expect the Kenyan government to react and to act as the situation demands with respect.

  • Minister.

  • It's not just possible, though I take your point on the fact that it's fluid and that we don't have certainty about what is to come.

  • But we saw growth slow in the last quarter.

  • Already we've seen oil prices and therefore revenues, even if just in Alberta, not just in Alberta, rather but for the country as a whole, they're going to be impacted as well, Right Corona virus has impacted a number of of sectors of the economy and certainly the global economy and there has not been a global recession to which Canada has been totally immune.

  • So I think it's fair maybe to ask.

  • I understand that your government hasn't made a decision on that, but is it your sense that stimulus would be required in the neighborhood of 20 to $40 billion?

  • And are you willing, as a government to add that much to the deficit where we're certainly able?

  • We have the fiscal room in the fiscal power Thio intervene and to provide the stimulus that the economy will demand.

  • This being said, we need to do it, but only in a fiscally responsible way but in a manner which is fully in touch with how Canadians fair and how workers and businesses thrive across Canada depends on all sorts of things.

  • And you're right now there are other shot that we need to take into account the price of all the fact that confidence outside of Canada is weakening the fact that supply chains are weakening as well, so we need to remind for that they will be regional considerations and also industrial consideration.

  • But we have the power and we have the willing the will and the ability to make a difference if a difference is needed.

  • Are you sure about that?

  • The conservatives contend that your party has has laid the covered bear that though you claim the fiscal capacity exists because of the debt to GDP ratio, there is a $26 billion deficit.

  • Right now, we haven't even taken into account the promises that your party made during the election, which amount to quite a bit of money.

  • $9 billion.

  • I believe in the next year.

  • Do you?

  • Do you really have a physical capacity for this?

  • Where we know and understand that the conservatives, unfortunately all trying to make political gains on the back of the health of safety of Canadians?

  • That's not Our objective.

  • Objective is to build on the strong economic condition that we currently have used our of considerable fiscal room and power to invest as and when needed in the Canadians and in workers.

  • We can do this knowing that we have the best credit rating of all G seven countries.

  • We have the lowest debt relative to the economy of all developed economies.

  • We have falling debt to GDP ratio in the last few years, so we're very, very strong from a fiscal stance were also there is strong from an economic point of view, what we want to maintain that by investing in Canadians, if that is needed over the next days and weeks.

  • Is it really fair, though Minister, to say that conservatives are trying to make political points on the backs of the health of the health rather of Canadians, I mean, they're pointing out, you know something about the deficit deficit that your party in the 2015 campaign promise would be much smaller than it.

  • ISS.

  • Well, we don't want to go back to the conditions we had in 2015.

  • We were in a recession when we were elected in 2015.

  • We were in the second recession in less than seven years.

  • We don't want to go back to.

  • Those conditions were much better off today, with 1.2 million new jobs, 1,000,000 Canadians out of poverty in the last four years.

  • So we have a very strong, very strong starting conditions Point Minister, with respect is that that you spent when those conditions were good, right, and so now when the conditions are bad or when they're worse, the money isn't there Thio to do so or if the money is there, it just adds further to the deficit load of the country.

  • We have the room and we have the money, the room of the ability and the willingness to keep investing and Canadian and workers, and particularly when times are challenging.

  • You know, we know that the investment we made in the last four years have been very good for in terms of job creations, in terms of economic growth, in terms of wagers into the public, the reduction in terms of protecting our environment.

  • But now we're facing a different challenge and we still have the will and the ability to invest in Canadians in Canada to address the current challenge by made polls by the coronavirus.

  • The only point I would make there is that growth was slowing before Corona virus hit.

  • But just one more question before I let you go, Minister, when you talk about Reed addressing regional issues and industrial issues with what's going on right now, the Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, said today that she'd spoken to her American counterpart Mike Pompeo about protecting North America's oil and gas sector.

  • Can you let us know what exactly that means?

  • Well in the face of the challenge, which you correctly indicated earlier the fire the fall in the or prize the dispute between the oil producing countries?

  • Canada is a very important oil and gas producer, and so is the United States.

  • So we are.

  • We share common advantages.

  • We also same share common challenges in those in those days.

  • So that's why talking and collaborating with their American counterparts is so important.

  • It will continue to do that because when the oil and gas industry succeeded in Canada, we also all succeed those Canadians.

  • What does that mean, though, when she says protecting North America's oil and gas center sector rather what does that mean?

  • Well, it means it means working together to protect ourselves against the the challenges polls by the external situation.

  • But what measures would that be?

  • Well, I could not talk openly about those managers.

  • I know those measures are being discussed by the two governments, and when they are known and able to be implemented, I know my colleague Minister Freedom will be able and happy to announce them is the government considering direct aid to Alberta?

  • Well, we are mindful of the challenges and the concerns of Canadians in the current situation and as you said correctly just a moment ago, the situation is complicated by a number of factors coronaviruses within your key factor.

  • But there are other things such as the oil press at all price, the tensions across the world trade situations that are quite complicated for unopened economy like Canada.

  • So we're mindful of the whole set of circumstances and we were able to react with the appropriate and timely measures that Canadian expect of us again.

  • Minister, that doesn't really answer the question.

  • Are you considering direct aid to Alberta?

  • Given how hard that province is going to be hit Well, I think you'll find out very soon in the next few days at our age will benefit all Canadians and probably even Maur those regions where we face Maur severe challenges because of lower growth in the last few years.

  • Okay, I'll leave it there.

  • Thank you so much, Minister Dick Low Appreciate your time this evening.

  • Thank you.

  • And have a good evening.

  • As the Corona virus spreads across Europe and North America communities have begun to take some extraordinary measures.

  • Democratic presidential nominee candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both just moments ago canceled their events tonight because of the virus.

  • Here's what's happening elsewhere.

  • Have a listen, not a question of if it will arrive, but when.

  • In New Brunswick, students, family members and staff returning from international travel have been ordered to stay away from public schools for two weeks in the U.

  • S.

  • A number of universities, including Harvard, Princeton and Stanford, have moved classes online.

  • Some are even advising students not to return to campus following spring break.

  • Theun There are event cancellations.

  • Last night, Pearl Jam announced it was postponing the first leg of its tour, which included shows in Toronto, Ottawa, Quebec City and Hamilton.

  • In the NHL, the San Jose Sharks may have to delay home games or play them without fans.

  • That's after the California county.

  • They operate in ban mass gatherings.

  • Meanwhile, Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy have decided to take their shows without live audiences.

  • Over in Italy, an entire nation is under lock down, schools are closed, football matches are suspended and today the government announced mortgage payments are suspended until the outbreak.

  • It's under control in order to soften the economic impact on individuals.

  • Finally, across Ireland, parades have been canceled to mark one of their biggest celebrations of the year.

  • ST Patrick's Day.

  • Thousands of flights grounded, million's under quarantine, financial markets in a tailspin and oil prices crashing like it's the 1991 Gulf War.

  • As the Corona virus spreads around the globe, Canada's economy is undoubtedly taking a toll.

  • But just how much and can this country whether it Avery Shenfeld is the managing director and chief economist at C I B C.

  • He joins us from Toronto.

  • Hi, Mr Shenfeld.

  • Great to see you again.

  • Nice to be here.

  • So after Ah, historically bad day yesterday, markets did appear to rebound a bit.

  • Today.

  • What's your interpretation of how things went?

  • This is all about what happens after what happens next.

  • So I think we all have braced ourselves for the fact that economic activities going to decline in the coming quarter, not not obviously in Canada but just about everywhere including Canada on the issue, is what hope is there after that.

  • And I think markets are starting to focus in on whether fiscal authorities, including the U.

  • S.

  • Air going to provide some stimulus, some sort of tax relief that might then restore growth a little earlier.

  • That's really what we're talking about.

  • And so when you talk about what they're looking for, what the markets are looking for, do you anticipate we'll be in for a bit of a rod until there's some certainty around that?

  • I think as long as the headlines keep flashing every day about more cases, particularly Maur cases in the U.

  • S.

  • You know, it's one thing for the stock markets, particularly on Wall Street, if someone in China or Korea is getting something, but when their buddy you sits next to them on the trading desk on Wall Street gets the same illness seems to have a much bigger effect.

  • So I don't think we're out of the woods yet in terms of this hit to confidence in the markets or, for that matter, the hit to the confidence in the economy as a whole.

  • How significant is then the U.

  • S.

  • Efforts to contain the spread where market confidence is concerned, where economic confidence is concerned and there's a bunch of mixed messaging around that right now.

  • How detrimental is that?

  • So the issue really here is that the things you do to contain the spread of the virus also exacerbate the near term economic slowdown.

  • So if you lock people up the way they did in China, if you shut down all of Italy, as they've done, you have a huge economic dent in the near term, which isn't great for financial markets.

  • And you hope that that slows or stalls out the spread of the virus later on.

  • So the government's air, in a bit of a quandary, How much economic activity do you give up now on what reward do you get in terms of slowing the peak rates, at least of contagion down the road?

  • And what are your expectations in the Canadian context of?

  • And I and I fully understand this is not an easy thing to predict at all.

  • But when you're looking towards, you know, the next quarter of particularly the quarter after that, where the economy is concerned, what are your expectations?

  • So we know that consumer spending will slow.

  • We're not traveling as if Canadian cities actually see anything like what we're starting to see in us cities.

  • Then we defect.

  • Expect a pull back and consumer activity as well within Canada.

  • And more notably, of course, we have, you know, about 1/2 a percent off GDP growth from the oil shock.

  • We've got a big hit to exports because our major trading partners have slowed.

  • So it all adds up to, you know, pretty sure thing that the next quarter is not gonna look good.

  • Where economists don't know after that is what epidemiologists don't know is is the spread of the virus gonna wayne and therefore future quarters look a little bit better.

  • Um, you know, we may and be in for a couple of quarters of economic decline before we see that story play out.

  • So what are the implications than for the federal budget from where you said so?

  • The problem for Ottawa is that they probably wrote the budget already.

  • Now they're going to change the economic assumptions in that budget, which will automatically show a larger deficit.

  • That, in effect, is a good thing.

  • You wouldn't want to raise taxes or cut government spending to fight that wider deficit.

  • We know that the government is going to come up with specific targeted provisions to help people, for example, were laid off or in quarantine.

  • The real issue is, Do you need a big stimulus package?

  • And I don't think they're ready to announce that it takes time to unveil it on dhe.

  • Logical thing to do would be then, to put that off for after the budget.

  • The question is, of course, it's a minority government.

  • So can they get the opposition at least one opposition party to agree to that too phased approach?

  • Do a little bit now.

  • See how the economy goes and be prepared to offer big time stimulus if the economy actually needs it.

  • And what's the advantage of, I guess delaying that big time stimulus is it just to get a better read on the economy?

  • And then, if you are reading the economy, at what point does it jump out and say, OK, this is time for big stimulus.

  • Look, if we if we could deliver a big stimulus program tomorrow, maybe we would wave her magic wand and do that.

  • But the problem is that these things take time to design and to be fair to the politicians and for that matter the Civil service who has to do the work on this?

  • It was only in the last few days that we knew that oil was plunging us, far as it did, and really only in the last couple of weeks that we saw the spread of the contagion in the U.

  • S and budgets takes months of work.

  • So I think even in the White House there was a false announcement that there was going to be a tax stimulus plan unveiled on Tuesday.

  • And then the people who work around Mr Trump said, Well, we actually don't have that yet, right when it comes to the potential for larger stimulus again, taking into account everything that you just laid out, we've heard if you want to make a big dent, if you want to create an actual impact, you need something in the neighborhood of 20 to $40 billion.

  • Is that accurate?

  • From where you said so, I think 40 would be battling a huge recession.

  • 20 would be a modern recession.

  • 10 billion would still do something so but it's in the $10 billion range before it really makes a difference on DSO.

  • That's why it's not so easy to do at the drop of a hat, because laying out who's going to get what money and when and how is not an exercise that you can do in a few days, particularly if you want to make sure that the money is going to the places where it's going to be most effective, either and lifting growth during this slow patch, you might not be able to do that.

  • People might be hunkered down and unwilling to spend the check.

  • You've just sent them, but it might help as we come out of hibernation down the road.

  • Encourage a quicker revitalisation of economy if people have saved up some of the money they got from Ottawa or businesses have been sheltered in some way and therefore arm or able to start spending and rehiring again.

  • Okay, I'm gonna leave it there.

  • Thank you, Mr Shenfeld.

  • Pleasure is always to have you on.

  • Appreciate your insights this evening.

  • Welcome.

I recognize that there are going to be significant economic impacts for Canadians, for workers, for businesses.

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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