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  • Ever since the financial crisis of a decade ago, we've all been a bit paranoid about debt and in particular, about debt of the US consumer.

  • Well, here's some good news.

  • Mortgage debt does not seem to be set to start another set of problems.

  • This chart shows the percentage of US consumer debt that is over 90 days delinquent.

  • The red line here shows mortgage debt, and, as you can see, the trend is clearly down seriously.

  • Delinquent mortgage debt is now at about 1% of total mortgage debt, down at pre crisis levels.

  • And clearly, banks and consumers both learned a lesson in 8 4009 Banks have tightened underwriting standards, Buyers air a bit more cautious, and lower interest rates make mortgages easier to pay.

  • Now, something to be more worried about.

  • As you can see, delinquent auto debt is on a clear, rising trend is approaching the levels of delinquency we saw in the financial crisis and is well above pre crisis levels.

  • A study by the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that the rising delinquency in auto debt is particularly concentrated among consumers with low credit scores and lower income consumers.

  • So for one thing, this rising line should make us wonder whether the U.

  • S consumer is really as healthy as she appears and whether the booming market for securities backed by auto loans is a stable.

  • As it appears, there is, however, some good news.

  • First, auto debt has some characteristics that make it intrinsically stable.

  • Most importantly, it is always at the top of US consumers Priority list for debt payments.

  • As the old saying goes, You can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house toe work.

  • Another important point.

  • There isn't nearly as much auto debt as there is mortgage debt.

  • Next, in relative terms, there is not that much auto debt outstanding.

  • Yes, there is $1.3 trillion of car loans outstanding in the United States, but that's not actually that much compared to mortgage debt at 9.5 trillion.

  • Finally, and perhaps most importantly, from the point of view of the crisis, a lot of auto debt is not held.

  • It banks.

  • The majority is held either by asset managers or at nonbank lenders.

  • So should this rising trend in delinquency in car loans in the United States, make us worry about the health of the U.

  • S.

  • Consumer.

  • Yes.

  • Should it make us hesitant as investors to take a lot of risk in this category?

  • Perhaps, should it make us worry about the stability of the financial system?

  • Almost definitely not.

Ever since the financial crisis of a decade ago, we've all been a bit paranoid about debt and in particular, about debt of the US consumer.


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アメリカはなぜサブプライムの自動車ローン問題を抱えているのか|カウントするチャート (Why the US has a subprime car loan problem | Charts that Count)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日