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  • LISA DESJARDINS: And breaking down the latest developments on the 2020 campaign trail, as

  • always, it's time for Politics Monday.

  • First up, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, host of public radio's "Politics With

  • Amy Walter." She's in New York. And Tamara Keith, we are told is getting ready to join

  • us in a few minutes.

  • Amy, let's start with what a difference a week makes. The last time we had Politics

  • Monday, before Super Tuesday.

  • Take me through where you see the race now, with Biden in the lead of delegates. Where

  • are we?

  • AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: I know. We really are with Biden in the lead of delegates.

  • In fact, Lisa, I was just walking through our conversation in my head the other day

  • when you said, well, what would it take for Joe Biden to be able to catch up?

  • And I said, well, you know, part of Joe Biden's problem is, he doesn't have a lot of money

  • or infrastructure. And that actually didn't matter much, because what he had was unity.

  • And he had Donald Trump.

  • And Donald Trump is the best get-out-the-vote operation that Democrats have had. It helped

  • them in the 2017 legislative races. It helped them in the 2018 races for Congress in the

  • midterms. And it's helping Joe Biden now, because Democratic voters are so focused -- we

  • have been talking about this, Lisa -- from the very beginning of this contest, the intense

  • focus that Democrats, the majority of Democrats have, on beating Donald Trump, how important

  • that is to them.

  • And when every -- almost every other Democrat dropped out, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar,

  • and Beto O'Rourke all came together right before Super Tuesday and endorsed Joe Biden,

  • what it said to Democratic voters was, OK, this is the candidate who can beat Donald

  • Trump.

  • And it paid off, obviously, quite substantially on Super Tuesday. So where we are right now,

  • Lisa, is, we're looking at Joe Biden going from underdog to front-runner, and now it's

  • Bernie Sanders who's the underdog.

  • He is going to need the kind of muscular turnout and vote share that Joe Biden had in Super

  • Tuesday for this upcoming Super Tuesday.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: Yes.

  • Tamara Keith, so what does Bernie Sanders need to do now?

  • TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Well, he needs to win.

  • And the thing is that Michigan in particular is a really symbolic state, because it's a

  • state that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 in November. She also lost it in the primary

  • in that year to Bernie Sanders. He won it. He came from behind and surprised everyone

  • and won it.

  • And that was really a critical moment for his campaign. That was the moment, that surprise

  • victory, that essentially allowed him to stay in the race through to the end. But if he

  • can't win in Michigan, it could be a similarly significant moment for his campaign this time

  • around in the opposite direction.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: So let's look at those states voting tomorrow.

  • AMY WALTER: Although...

  • LISA DESJARDINS: Oh, Amy, I'm sorry. Go ahead.

  • AMY WALTER: Yes, just a quick point.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: Yes.

  • AMY WALTER: It is true, it was a come-from-behind victory last time for Bernie Sanders.

  • But even that, just like now, a narrow victory is not enough for him. He needs to make up

  • a lot of delegates. Now, Joe Biden has a significant enough lead that it is going to be hard for

  • him to catch up without a big win in some of these states, including Michigan.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: So let's look at what's on -- what the possibilities are for tomorrow.

  • These are the states -- I know Yamiche pointed this out before. These are the six states,

  • mostly the middle of the country. And also then Washington state is another big one.

  • Looking at the Michigan poll that came out just a few hours ago, one thing stood out.

  • Joe Biden's winning in many, many groups, but not with the young. Let's look at what's

  • happening there.

  • Bernie Sanders is up by 11 points with voters under 50. That's not just 20-year-olds. Those

  • are voters under 50.

  • So, Amy, my question about that is, that's part of the Obama coalition. What's going

  • on that they are not signing on to this electability argument, apparently. Is that crucial for

  • Biden? Is that enough for Sanders?

  • AMY WALTER: Well, about two-thirds of all primary voters going into this have been under

  • the age of 45.

  • And Joe Biden, especially in these last series of elections, has been doing very well with

  • those voters. You're right that that sort of older millennial to younger Gen Z has still

  • stuck with Bernie Sanders. The good news in this poll for Bernie Sanders is, he's still

  • winning those voters.

  • The bad news is, he's not winning them by as big a number as, say, Joe Biden is winning

  • those voters 50 and over.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: All right, let's turn here.

  • Most of these states voting tomorrow, interestingly enough, do not yet have cases of coronavirus

  • reported. That's the exception. Most of the country does have cases of coronavirus.

  • So these campaigns are continuing to have public event, no changes in schedule yet.

  • I cover Congress. We have five members of Congress now, ladies, who are self-quarantining

  • because of exposure to the COVID-19 virus, but no major changes on Capitol Hill yet.

  • However, I know some staff are telling their bosses, let's stop shaking hands now to politicians.

  • I want to ask you -- Tam, I will start with you -- is this going to change the campaign

  • trail and sort of how our government and politicians operate?

  • TAMARA KEITH: Yes, I think so.

  • I think that there's no way that it doesn't eventually. I mean, you don't see Sanders

  • and Biden campaigning in Washington state right now, where coronavirus is very prevalent.

  • And the thing is, like, the -- President Trump typically, every -- like, all year long, has

  • had a rally on the eve of the Democratic primary in a swing state, in an important state, New

  • Hampshire, Iowa.

  • Well, tomorrow, Michigan is voting. Michigan is like one of the most important swing states.

  • And President Trump doesn't have a rally scheduled in Michigan. He's not there tonight. And there's

  • no indication -- he has no rallies scheduled out at all at the moment.

  • Now, his campaign says, nothing is changing, they're not doing anything differently. He

  • did go to a bunch of fund-raisers over the last several days and shake a lot of hands.

  • But, inevitably, something is going to change, because so much of daily life is changing.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: I want to talk about another thing that we're watching, of course. Hearing

  • from the president on coronavirus is something that we have been wanting to do for a few

  • days.

  • And this is a case now, we heard from Judy's interview just a few minutes ago sober economic

  • news, not positive, very serious health issue rising in this country.

  • Amy, what exactly do you think the political risks are for the president in how he handles

  • this? Where is he right now in showing leadership?

  • AMY WALTER: That's right.

  • I mean, right now, I think the jury is still out. The latest polling that came out today,

  • the Quinnipiac poll, 43 percent approve of the job that the president's doing on handling

  • the coronavirus, 49 percent disapprove. So that's a minus-6 percent.

  • But quite -- that's a lot better than his overall job approval rating, which is minus-15.

  • So it's better -- that's one point.

  • The other piece is, the president is so focused and has been so diligent about being the disrupter.

  • That is his brand. That is what he likes doing, keeping people off base, keeping his opponents

  • sort of on their back heel.

  • But what voters are going to want, if we are in a serious health crisis, which we may very

  • well be, in a serious economic crisis, what they want is stability, not chaos.

  • LISA DESJARDINS: OK. Thank you to both of you.

  • One quick note. Tam, I know you said the virus is prevalent in Washington state, 174 cases.

  • So it's something that obviously they have a concern about, but is something that is

  • in a certain area.

  • Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you both very much.

  • JUDY WOODRUFF: Yes, thank you, all three.

  • And, tomorrow night, please join me and the entire "PBS NewsHour" team for a primary election

  • night special. That's at 11:00 p.m. Eastern right here on your PBS station, also online

  • and on all of our social media channels, including Facebook and Twitter.

LISA DESJARDINS: And breaking down the latest developments on the 2020 campaign trail, as

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タマラ・キースとエイミー・ウォルターがコロナウイルス政治、ミシガン州の第一次ステークスについて語る (Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on coronavirus politics, Michigan primary stakes)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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