Name: 豪ドル分析。AUD/USDの上昇を説明するRBAの金利カットで (Australian Dollar Analysis: Explaining AUD/USD Rise on RBA Rate Cut)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:20:41.000Z
Duration: 39 min 29 s
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Though please have a look at this disclaimer.

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It reminds you that trading leveraged products like spot Foreign exchange is a risky endeavor because leverage can amplify losses exactly as well as it does Gaines.

It also notes that everything I say is my opinion.

Take a look at that disclaimer for just a moment here with that, let's take a look at what's going on here with the Aussie.

You can see the sense that we've been talking about for a few months at this point that what we have with the Aussie dollar is a kind of re sloping over the downtrend.

So we looked at this overall decline from January of 2016 and said Here was the dominant decline.

Initially, he was a rally that took out this resistance and re slope to the decline into a more shallow one here and then looked at this rise and said, Well, this might be a similar move to this where we saw oh, break and then a re sloping and then a subsequent push down through counter trend support, reestablishing the next move lower.

We even noted in our earlier sessions that the sizes of these recent corrective Gaines is very similar to the prior.

So here was this rise to re slope the down move 5.3%.

So zooming in now what I've done is I've taken this as the dominant former directions for the last leg.

This is a correction that is over and used these three points to plot Fibonacci extensions.

Ah, that Then give us levels which you can see have been holding fairly decently here on the way down. 00:02:55.450 --> 00:03:7.990  As we get through support and start the next leg of the descent I intern short here on the break of this supporting line. 00:03:7.990 --> 00:03:15.010  I'm still holding short because the dominant decline appears to be still in play.

This resistance is holding and you can see that the Ozzy's essentially stair stepping down along these fib levels.

It held it the 38.2 level very shortly, then declined through it.

Held at this range bottom reinforced by the 50 level, then broke through it briefly held a TTE the 61 8 fib, went through it and is now holding at the 78 6 fib. 00:03:46.770 --> 00:04:1.090  If it cracks through that, the next level of significance is gonna be the 100 fib at 63 09 So essentially called 63 figure. 00:04:1.090 --> 00:04:9.610  And if we zoom all the way out here, you can see that beyond that is this major bottom down here. 00:04:9.610 --> 00:04:14.110  This is dating all the way back into the crisis.

So this is where we find ourselves currently.

Now, notice that as were setting these lower lows, we're actually seeing rs I divergence.

Now, um, some of you have pointed out before that this, of course, is something that's been here for a while. 00:04:47.690 --> 00:05:4.480  And of course, since it has emerged, for example, you could say and we did note that this was also R s I divergence what he appeared before this rally. 00:05:4.490 --> 00:05:9.090  So we were setting lower lows right here R s. 00:05:9.090 --> 00:05:11.150  I was diverging.

And what we then saw Waas adrift sideways and then resumption.

We've talked about this, um, both in articles and in this session that rs I diversions speaks to ebbing mo mentum that can either be a period of consolidation or a reverse, so it need not necessarily be one or the other.

So it isn't necessarily the case here that this rs I diverted was quote unquote wrong.

It is certainly the case, though, that a reversal did not materialize. 00:05:55.560 --> 00:06:1.960  But we instead saw was a period of digestion followed by extension lower. 00:06:2.460 --> 00:06:12.250  And what ultimately needs to have been for me do separate.

Are we looking for Ah, consolidation or are we looking for a reversal?

Is a, um, break of this barrier here, so this would essentially reinforce the idea that we're in a down move if it is held, were suggest that there is room for a more meaningful correction higher if there is a daily close above it. 00:06:41.540 --> 00:07:1.650  So looking at this somewhat more extended version of rs I their versions as we see it here and incidentally, even on this smaller scale, just right here, this most recent bottom, but more broadly here. 00:07:3.240 --> 00:07:12.650  It may be that there is a period of digestion in here, too, Perhaps consolidate into this resistance and then declined lower as we did here.

Or perhaps a pop higher baby to read, uh, retest the range where, incidentally, that falling trendline reinforces it.

Maybe, uh, to extend through it and mount a larger correction.

You'll notice if we look at the four hour chart is that same sort of narrative broken down a little bit.

So here was that our aside, I virgins here so you can see the lower lows on the price higher lows on our side.

And that was consolidated. 00:07:57.580 --> 00:08:7.210  And then we broke down similarly here, setting lower lows on the price, not setting him on r s. 00:08:7.210 --> 00:08:41.620  I there we have, um, at least the potential for abouts and really getting an early glance that this might look something like this where a break of this resistance here would be the, uh, a line in the sand that would suggest a further rebound into this range bottom.

That's that's where we'd look as the next sort of mayor.

Inflection boy. 00:08:53.080 --> 00:09:0.490  And then, of course, if we got through this up here, then perhaps there is scope to get into the upper 60 sevens. 00:09:0.490 --> 00:09:11.170  But for now, we can see that not only is this dominant decline holding, but this sharper one is actually still in place.

So at this point, we don't have confirmation.

Um, where we, ah might go from here, but ah, for now, we just have this initial indication that at least the initial sell off is losing a bit of momentum.

It may be a bounce now to put that in context.

This is something we've obviously been talking about for for a while as well.

Here you can see we are approaching very nearly this level of support that we've been talking about for months now above is the 60 area with a 60 handle.

And the argument that we've made here, over and over and over again is that whatever back and forth we have on shorter term charts, the bottom line longer term is we have this very well defined decline that's been in play, going all the way back to the peaks mid 2011 or so.

And most recently, that move took out support going back to April's 2001 and since then we've had a very kind of pointed decline. 00:10:53.600 --> 00:11:6.750  This is that move from the beginning of 2018 that we looked at here in a much more kind of broken down, away on the daily chart. 00:11:7.810 --> 00:11:29.300  And you can see that most recently, there was a clean break of this support shelf near 70 retest in December resumption in January, where we recoiled from former support now resistance.

And that, of course, in February, now that we've seen the month rollover, we've extended downward and just within a hare over this support.

And, of course, nothing about this suggests that there is anything like imminent reversal in the heart.

We'll see, of course, how March plays out.

But it does appear as though the bearish implications over the move here remain in play, that the path of least resistance still favors Aussie weakness.

So to put that together with what we're looking at on the daily in the four hour it seems like we have the possibility that there is a bounce in the cards nearer term, though again is for now unconfirmed.

And on the longer term chart, the overall bias seems bearish, at least until further notice. 00:12:37.140 --> 00:13:4.360  So any near term gains here start to look like there again until shown otherwise likely to be corrective in the context of this broader decline, where by then any bounce becomes not something to chase higher, rather, a selling opportunity? 00:13:5.040 --> 00:13:10.050  No, of course, at this point, we don't have confirmation.

So I wouldn't say that these conclusions at this stage appear actionable.

So for me, since I am short from here, I'm just going to continue holding, not going to add to my exposure, not going to get out of the position either.

I'm just gonna sit back and see what happens, Opens.

And if we get into this resistance and hold here, I'm gonna consider adding, And if we get through it and break, I'll probably exit, at least in a shorter term sense.

Let whatever, um, whatever upswing, play out, then look to get back short. 00:13:56.610 --> 00:14:9.560  As long as the broader longer term trajectory lower remains valid now as faras event risk is concerned. 00:14:9.570 --> 00:14:36.550  Needless to say, the most important bit this is not a, um, an uneventful week for the Ozzy, to be sure, but that the most eventful bid is coming up just after we conclude our session here by way of a monetary policy announcement from the R B A And here.

What we have is the market's increasingly emphatically looking for a cut.

So if we actually look at what is being priced into Australian interest rate futures, we see that the markets are baking in 100% probability off one cut in a relatively muted 25% probability that we're going to get a 50 basis point card rather than 25 basis point.

This is, of course, quite a bit of conviction.

So if we get into a situation here where there is no car, the Aussies likely to find itself moving substantially higher att least in the near term sense, because the overall situation clearly has become so skewed that the market is at this point, not really positioned for there not to be a cup.

Then, as we head into the remainder of the year, we start to see that a second cut is all but fully priced in by the middle of the year, and it's unclear whether it is likely to show up in um in June in July and August.

The probabilities are very close to clustered, but ah, expectation is it would seem that we are at this point on four, at least a pair of cuts and one of them is far again.

Market pricing is concerned, certainly do today.

Now, if we get that cut, then it is not likely to be in and of itself market moving. 00:17:0.040 --> 00:17:8.550  So I wouldn't expect the Aussie dollar to lose much ground war we to just get the one cut because again it is by all accounts in the price already. 00:17:9.640 --> 00:17:48.160  It will then be the guidance from the R B A that takes center stage, and with that in mind, we are of course, going to look for comments is that speak to how the central bank sees itself responding mostly to the recent crone virus scare, but also to the overall sort of global weakness, in particular emanating from China. 00:17:48.160 --> 00:18:0.450  We've talked exhaustively before about China being Australia's largest export market and China has, quite frankly, not had a good several years. 00:18:1.040 --> 00:18:2.930  Uh, the trade war with the U. 00:18:2.930 --> 00:18:3.410  S. 00:18:3.420 --> 00:18:6.060  Over the past couple of years, of course. 00:18:6.060 --> 00:18:7.400  Take its toll. 00:18:7.630 --> 00:18:20.110  We have had the protests in Hong Kong recently creating uh ah, a good degree of disruption and off course.

This grown a virus outbreak is, uh, just yet another headwind.

And we've seen now in the key my numbers that came out over the weekend and yesterday that indeed they hit that the Chinese economy has taken has been massive.

Both manufacturing and service sector growth has gone deeply negative and the economy is contracting at a rapid clip.

So at this point, ah, the R B a no doubt has a good level of concern to atleast consider because the fallout clearly ah has scope to be very substantial indeed.

For any economy dependent on Chinese demand, Australia certainly one of them.

So it is then the readiness with which the R B A might signal it's ah willing this to contemplate nonstandard monetary policy because, of course, as they moved to cut what say they only cut by 25 basis points here, that suggests only 50 Maur basis points in room to cut.

If they caught 50 basis points, they're just 25 basis points from zero.

So we're getting into that place where the R B A doesn't have a lot of room, doesn't have a lot of ammunition, and they're gonna have to start talking to markets about what else they can do, not necessarily to promise that they're going to do it, but at least to talk about a capacity to deliver additional policy support, if that is necessary.

And that's what the markets are going to look for.

We're willing we will use them if we find this to be necessary.

And this is really the kind of reassurance that investors are looking for. 00:20:45.640 --> 00:21:3.760  If we see that, we might see Ah, the Ozzy actually find a degree of, um off support because this level of easing is in many ways in the in the outlook. 00:21:3.760 --> 00:21:11.480  Already, the markets, as I say, are looking for a least a pair of cuts this year, which the RV itself has not actually acknowledged.

And so the markets are already skewed very dovish in their view, whereas hopes for sentiment are largely pinned on central banks willingness to push back against this recent volatility.

So markets may focus here less on the implications for the Ozzy losing a bit of its yield support and focused Maur on central bank stimulus, being a boon for sentiment, or at least reinforcing the sense that central banks acquitted Attempt. 00:21:59.980 --> 00:22:7.350  Leaning against this crisis stretched and short on ammunition, though they are. 00:22:8.040 --> 00:22:19.350  So if in fact the R B A does everything that the market is hoping for with all of its aggressively dovish implications.

It may be that the Aussie actually rallies because that level Oh, uh, vigor in policy supporters in many ways already expected.

Whereas if they weren't going to do that, if if if global central banks were not going to step in here relatively quickly, we might get the panic amplified. 00:22:48.370 --> 00:23:7.850  And so, to the extent that the R B A's willingness to ease calms investors nerve somewhat, we may see somewhat counter intuitive Ozzy dollar rise on a very dovish outcome because he would be a sentiment built rise rather than a rates one.

Now, we have course also heard from Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Has Paul points out, um, one of our one of our guests here that, um the expectation is that Amy rate cut by the R B A. 00:23:40.990 --> 00:24:4.850  Will be fully passed through by local banks, which seems both like an admonition and then expectation and the forecast, Um, and also this idea that the fiscal authorities are getting ready to step in, that there is a level of coordination here. 00:24:6.640 --> 00:24:16.730  This is, to some extent encouraging, but the odds he hasn't really moved on Mr Moore since comments, presumably because they think the R B A is the first line of defense.

And surely nobody is particularly ready to commit one way or another directionally when we have this kind of tectonic policy announcement yet ahead. 00:24:29.790 --> 00:25:6.040  So it'll be interesting to see how the Aussie response to whatever the R B A does here, even the context of what Mr Morrison said earlier, and whether those comments will come into play with a delay here once the R B A says what it says guides how it guides and, um sets the stage later in the week we are also going tohave Australian GDP data. 00:25:6.040 --> 00:25:7.930  This is for the fourth quarter. 00:25:8.230 --> 00:25:14.260  The expectation is that growth is going to pick up from 1.7% in the third quarter to 2% in the fourth.

It seems entirely too dated over release at this point to really inspire the Aussie one way or another because surely with the kind of situation that we saw that that we've seen rather since the beginning of 2020 this Corona virus outbreak Chief among the features of the current environment, there is a little scope to take a pick up in growth in the fourth quarter and extract belated out when clearly the environment has meaningful.

He changed. 00:25:56.740 --> 00:26:9.120  So what this data actually means may not be very much looking through wth e the rest of the week. 00:26:9.130 --> 00:26:15.300  The others of notable catalysts on the horizon are on the external front.

We're gonna have wth e Bank of Canada rate decision up, uh, on Wednesday to see what they say.

Clearly, this is ah, central bank that is looking at performance in Canada's economy.

But there is substantial, uh, scope here for overall sentiment to get some directional cues if we have a, um, implication here for what?

All of this recent Ah, headwind gathering means or the U.