Well, anyway, it's justfromEnvironmentCanada, a hybridstorenumberjoiningustoday, discussingherresearchinthebooth.

Justgo.

So, I actually I'm goingtostartbysayingthatthetitleiskindofcompletingOriginally, I was a lotoftimetalkingaboutyouhavemeasurements, deformation, changesinmotionineasternCanada.

Verynewandinterestingworkandhowithasn't over.

Someeventshavesupersededthattalkaboutother, likethe B C, which I willtouchonandandsevenkindsofgoingtoprisoninItaly.

Theoriesonthat.

In a briefoutline, I willfinishwith, um, uh, workwithworkondeformationandearthquakesineasternCanada.

And I willcutonthat, butmoretime, probablyontheotheragain.

Thankyouforattending.

Andthankyouforhavingme.

Thereare a lotoffunforme, andthen I'm gonnastartbytalkingaboutwhatearthquakeis, whatweknowaboutit.

Andthenwhen I moveintoearthquakeforecastingofitandthatswe'lltalkagain a littlebitaboutthat.

Onmagnitudesix, wehaveverypoorstatisticalmagnitudesevenor a magnitudeeightbecausetheyoccursoinfrequently.

However, wehavelotsofinformationaboutmagnitudethreeofthembecausetheyhadpersonaloffice, theyincurred 100,000 moreoften, then a magnitudefiveforthat, sowecancollect a lotofstatisticsthatwecanuse.

Thismeansthatsometimeinthenext 50 years, there's a 10% chancethatLosAngelesgoodexperienceandacceleration a jumpthat's about 80% of 10% chancethatin 50 yearsthat's what I wouldtellyouthat I Sotherealissuethereis.

So, um, I havelearned a lotoverthelast 10 15 years.

Um, forCalifornia, I wouldchangealmostnothing.

Itturnsoutyouhaveexperimented e I haveexperimentedwithotherseparateusingmagnitudetoaboutyoudon't gainmuch.

So I lookedattheinformationthatyougetfromusingdifferent, uh, differentmagnitude.

Differentscale, differentsizes.

Waywe'vebeenthesedowninto a grid, forexample, about 10 plumberstohelp.

Itturnsouttherearelookingatothernonothing.

I'vechangedupnothinganywayinCalifornia.

What I havelearnedisthatthefirstprobably I havelearned, althoughlookinginotherareaslikeCanada, isthatisthatthereare a coupleofthingsthatmatter a lothere.

OneisthatyouneedtobecollectingdataprettycompletelyIfyouhaveholesinyourdata, that's it.

Andas a result, wedon't collectdatafromdeepenoughyettodo.

There's a lotoferrors, a lotofMissdatawithdeathinWesternCanadaandthatoneoftheproblemswithdeductionsonityou'regonnahavetodoiswe'regonnadothison a regularbasisof a placelikethat.

I havetohavebetterthat.

Anyotherquestions?

Yeah, well, justmaybeintermsoftheGPStechnologyandthere's even a cougarcanJapaneseatalltheseGPSreadingsofpressurebuildupinthatseductions?

Theyellowandorangeagainareourforecastlocations, locationswherewasforecastandagaininterestinglyagain, there's thelocationoftheOttomanearthquakein 2010 andwedo a forecastthatcorrectlyaswellhave a moreChildrenthatanybodywantstoseeit.

But I leftoutofthistalk, butwedoforecastthatautoquitewell.

Wantedtodoyettostackthemalluponaverageamountandtriedtosometimelikethere's actually a modelthatwasproducedstatisticalmodelsoflargerover a couple 100 years.

Californiapublished a paper a fewyearsagoinoneoftheleadingjournalsthatbasicallysaidgaveyouthatsecondstatementdidotherthansuddenlyconsideredearthquakeforecastingthingslikegeodeticmedicamentsandelectricalsignalssignals.

Butsofarnoneofthemhasqualifiedat a goodforecastingtechnique.