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  • So you say in the memo, and it's more or less what you just described that one needs evaluate the price change against the degree to which the fundamentals have worsened.

  • Right, that's impossible right now is impossible.

  • So why not evaluate the price change against the degree of uncertainty?

  • Because that's where we were the last time you wrote a memo called Nobody Knows, right.

  • We were on the brink of the economic collapse that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

  • Now, if you went liquid right after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and then you waited to buy you did relatively well.

  • It was a whole lot easier to sell in September than it was to sell in November or December.

  • Why not do the same thing?

  • I'm not sure I follow with that.

  • I don't think it was These years Sell.

  • Everybody want to sell.

  • The competition was on the selling side.

  • The easy part was buying and well, things got worse.

  • Things went further down Okay?

  • Yes.

  • Well, I don't think in terms of days, weeks eso you have me at a disadvantage.

  • But I mean directionally, uh, the question is, you know, our things cheap or rich now, as you say, it's impossible to say.

  • But on the other hand, you know, I've been coming on your show for a couple of years saying that I was a couple of saying I thought things were steep.

  • There was a lot of risk taking going on.

  • Things were priced for perfection was exercising their optimism.

  • We were being cautious, and it was hard to buy things for less than they're worth.

  • It was hard to get a bargain.

  • That was the recurring theme.

  • Now we can't really be too doctrinaire about whether things are cheaper Ridge.

  • But we know they're a heck of a lot cheaper than they were two weeks ago, and we know that there is panic.

  • And by the way, when I say 12% that's the overall you.

  • We know that there are great exceptions, and one of the things is that in times of chaos, investors failed to make fine distinctions.

  • So things go down more than they should and less than they should.

  • We we have an opportunity, we think, to find the things that have gone down more than they should.

  • It's a better climate forgetting bargains today than it was two months ago.

  • Some people want to wait for the bottom.

  • Well, is it better two by now, if you see a bargain than to wait for the bottom Well, I could ask you what is the bottom?

  • Eric and I have no idea.

  • Well, know that it's easy that bottom is the day before it starts going up.

  • But how do you know the The model is only judged in retrospect S o.

  • I think that it and you know, the book that you meant to plug mastering the market cycle has a lot about this idea of waiting for the bottom.

  • Uh, you never know when you're at the bottom, but you might have a feeling that something's cheap And if it's cheap, you should buy it If it goes down, Maur.

  • AII that wasn't to buy it bottom.

  • If it goes down more, buy some more and keep your nerve and and continue down.

  • As long as your assessment is right, Howard, people want to know.

  • Is oak tree out there right now catching falling knives?

  • Well, we're certainly buying.

  • Yes, we're certainly buying.

  • I mean, if you're a distress investor, you're you.

  • You must turn more aggressive when you're given good chances.

  • Uh, I'm not saying this is the bottom, but this is certainly a time to do some buying.

So you say in the memo, and it's more or less what you just described that one needs evaluate the price change against the degree to which the fundamentals have worsened.

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オークツリーのマークスは、それは確かにいくつかの購入を行うための時間だと言います (Oaktree's Marks Says It's Certainly a Time to Do Some Buying)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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