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  • I do fear there are an awful lot of parallels to the 1930s

  • around at the moment.

  • And that does kind of scare me quite a lot.

  • People are done with an old system

  • or they're done with old mitts.

  • A lot of people are very used to feeling very disempowered

  • and feeling like this is completely out my hands.

  • There is a real problem with being told every day that we're

  • all going to die.

  • Out of crises, there's always opportunity.

  • Crises galvanise, so out of these crises,

  • you've got to have an opportunity and change.

  • We're in dark times on a very bright and sunny day.

  • And it's just as well is bright and sunny because, at times,

  • they are getting darker.

  • And people, I don't know, losing faith

  • in the reliability and the dependability

  • of British political forms, in particular.

  • I live part of the time in America,

  • and the same thing is happening there.

  • I was born during the last months of the war.

  • I grew up with one, gigantic, genuinely apocalyptic fear,

  • namely of nuclear incineration.

  • And once that seemed to be not going to happen,

  • we became accustomed, really, to the pleasures of freedom,

  • and the liberalisation, the end of the Soviet Union.

  • So what's happened since the disintegration of what

  • you can expect to happen from a democratic process

  • has been really very, very sudden and very startling.

  • So the issue, I suppose, as we go

  • into the whirlwind of darkness and shrieking

  • is this particular moment in 2019, a moment of truth,

  • a moment of reckoning.

  • We talk about the survival of the planet,

  • but the planet is going to be fine.

  • It's us that's the threat.

  • And we are the threat to ourselves.

  • This is absolutely real and incredibly urgent.

  • And I think climate change is shaping everything politically.

  • We've all seen melting ice caps and fires around the Amazon.

  • And this has heightened public consciousness.

  • For me, listening and talking to experts,

  • we've probably got a very few number

  • of years left where if we don't do something,

  • then it almost becomes irreversible.

  • And that's very scary.

  • One way or another, we are going to get

  • a level of global warming that will transform of our lives.

  • And there is going to need to be a question of adaption,

  • as well as mitigation, but it is not the case

  • that we are literally living on definitely

  • the end of the world.

  • What happens next, the future, it really is in our hands.

  • We're screwed because we haven't acted on climate change.

  • And we're not going to act on climate change.

  • There will be a little bit of action, not nearly enough,

  • when the disasters start.

  • So when Miami is wiped out, when London floods, what we're

  • going to get is survival of the richest.

  • Don't be in Bangladesh or Nigeria

  • when climate change really hits.

  • America is two countries on this subject,

  • that you have a lot of people who are still

  • impervious to the argument.

  • At the same time, you've got the most advanced

  • environmental movement on the planet, some

  • of the most advanced renewable energy industries

  • on the planet.

  • And so living there, as I have for the past 16 months,

  • it really is like inhabiting two worlds

  • on the subject of climate change.

  • And the biggest variable is how the rest of the world

  • deals with it.

  • Mark Twain is said to have said, history never repeats itself

  • but sometimes it rhymes.

  • And the restrains of the way cultures

  • can slip into authoritarianism, in some sense,

  • we're living in one of those moments which self-accelerates.

  • You just have to follow the circus

  • of what happens in parliament and outside parliament.

  • And your jaw drops the next day with something

  • you wouldn't have expected it could happen,

  • but it nonetheless unfolds.

  • I think a combination of Trump, Brexit,

  • now Johnson is prime minister, Bolsonaro, Putin, Orban,

  • rise of China, there's a lot of stuff going on.

  • And you just think, this doesn't feel very good.

  • I have definitely noticed sleep being interrupted by politics,

  • way more than it was when I was actually

  • working full time in it.

  • The historical parallel that comes to mind

  • is the years of the Cold War.

  • And we forget at this distance how dreary there were,

  • and how grim they were, and how they seemed

  • destined to go on forever.

  • But we were lucky enough to see the fall of the Berlin Wall

  • and to see a time of what appeared

  • to be tremendous prosperity, good for human rights,

  • all of that.

  • I'm just wondering where we're going to turn.

  • In 2016, I still held out some hope

  • that populism would be a flash in the pan.

  • And the reason I'm more pessimistic

  • now is that we've had a wave of populists

  • get elected during a boom.

  • America has been growing for longer

  • than any previous economic expansion in its history.

  • Lots of European populists have been

  • elected during relatively benign economic circumstances.

  • Were there to be a recession or something worse

  • than a recession, a financial crash of the order

  • we had 11 years ago, then you'd have

  • to imagine that the underlying public appetite

  • for extreme political options would go up, not down.

  • I think this is a passing phase.

  • These people don't have solutions

  • and younger people are not anti-immigration.

  • Younger people are worried about climate change.

  • Younger people don't on the whole of Trump, Brexit, et

  • cetera.

  • Where we're in a very bad moment with politics, that will pass.

  • Our complete paralysis over Brexit

  • has led to a collapse in what we understand our political system

  • to be.

  • Therefore, we cannot legislate for any social problems.

  • We cannot do anything about the dreadful inequality

  • in the country, which is getting worse and worse.

  • And it's a very similar situation in the US,

  • where a president whose focus, really

  • to the detriment of everything else,

  • in his own popularity and his own survival

  • has left vast swathes of the country adrift,

  • and yet will probably get re-elected.

  • These people are not conservatives.

  • They are anarchists.

  • And the main thrust of that anarchy

  • is to undermine the institutions that

  • are necessary for our survival.

  • I feel like the trade war has got a bit more to give.

  • The US-China thing, that's got a few more acts to play.

  • And we might be in the process of exiting the European

  • Union for the next 25 years.

  • That might be all we do in this country.

  • As a socialist, I'm confident in the capacity of human beings

  • to actually change the future.

  • Today, we really do have the potential

  • to see working people, so the vast majority of people,

  • take back control over our political institutions

  • and use that to build an economic model that

  • works for them, rather than just working for the few.

  • Well, I like to distinguish between the signal

  • and the noise.

  • And the noise is terrible right now.

  • But we've got to look to the longer term.

  • I mean the underlying forces.

  • We've got to remember that globalisation,

  • the liberal capitalist model, has done a fantastic

  • job in reducing poverty, creating jobs.

  • We do need some changes, but that

  • isn't to say that the whole system is corrupt to the core.

  • It's going to be the very old things that put us together.

  • It's going to be a sense of community

  • beyond national borders, respect for each other,

  • a pledge not to go back to the kind of evil and darkness

  • that we saw in World War II with the Holocaust.

  • I don't think the outcomes are necessarily grim.

  • I think there's still a hell of a lot to fight for.

  • So I think part of us is treading water and talking

  • a lot.

  • And part of this is endlessly catching our breath

  • to see what's happening and what's possible.

  • So it is one of those quicksand moments, really.

  • And you're not sure whether there's

  • a bottom to the quicksand.

  • So it's scary.

  • It's scary.

  • We say this with a smile on our face.

  • And anyone who says it's not scary are deluding themselves.

I do fear there are an awful lot of parallels to the 1930s

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Brexit、ポピュリズム、気候変動 - 2019年は転換点? I FT (Brexit, populism and climate change - 2019 a turning point? I FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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