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  • Boris Johnson says he doesn't want a general election,

  • and he does want a deal with the European Union on Brexit.

  • Can both be true?

  • Here with me to discuss this is Sebastian Payne,

  • our political reporter.

  • So I think Boris Johnson doesn't want

  • to be seen to be having a general election

  • although, in fact, he knows it's quite inevitable.

  • Ever since he went into Downing Street just a month ago

  • he had a working majority of one to three.

  • And when you've got numbers that small

  • there's no way that you can really do anything.

  • And there's so many splits within the Conservative party,

  • from BrexiterS, who actively want no deal, to Remainers

  • on the other side, who really want something

  • like Theresa May's deal, or potentially, an even softer

  • Brexit.

  • So although Mr Johnson came out this week

  • and said no, I don't want an election,

  • by Wednesday or Thursday he may well

  • have publicly changed his mind.

  • So let's just unpack this.

  • Boris Johnson says that he's committed

  • to leaving the European Union by October 31st.

  • Is there any possibility of a general election

  • before that date?

  • Or is the likelihood that it will come afterwards?

  • Well, this is what senior people in the government

  • are saying, that if parliament votes to take control

  • of the Brexit process, as they did

  • under Theresa May, when they forced her to delay departure

  • twice.

  • And taking control means another delay.

  • Exactly.

  • It would be saying to Mr Johnson,

  • we're going to force you to go back to the EU

  • and ask for yet another extension.

  • Senior people in the government say if that happens,

  • Mr Johnson will slap down a resolution

  • to dissolve parliament and have an election on October

  • the 14th.

  • That's in about five weeks' time.

  • So in theory that would happen all before the next EU Council

  • and before Brexit's happened.

  • But there are people who don't trust Mr Johnson,

  • because he could say that to parliament...

  • I wonder why.

  • There may be some record that people don't entirely

  • say that he does what he promises to.

  • But Mr Johnson has to hop on a plane up to Balmoral

  • and ask the Queen to dissolve parliament.

  • He could potentially change that date

  • till after Brexit and people around the prime minister

  • have said our ideal date for an election

  • would be the days after Brexit, early November.

  • But the fact is, he's insisting, and senior people

  • in the government are saying it would be October the 14th.

  • So yes, an election before Brexit.

  • And that election would be a rerun of the referendum.

  • Now let's come to a benign scenario, whereby Mr Johnson,

  • out of a magic hat, reaches a deal with the European Union

  • on Brexit leaving terms at the summit,

  • which I believe is on...

  • The 17th.

  • The 17th.

  • Then he would be in a very strong position, wouldn't he?

  • Well then he'd have to run at breakneck speed

  • to get that deal through parliament, because he's

  • made it his raison d'etre that we will

  • leave on the 31st of October.

  • Even if there's a deal he will not countenance a delay.

  • So if, somehow, the Irish border backstop disappears

  • and these alternative solutions emerge,

  • parliament would have to sit morning, noon,

  • and night, weekend, to get that deal through in time.

  • But isn't this semantics?

  • I mean, if he gets a deal at the European summit which actually

  • assure an agreement between the European Union, he can say,

  • look.

  • It's signed, sealed.

  • It's just not quite delivered.

  • Well, that deal as well, let us forget,

  • will be Theresa May's deal, with some tweaks.

  • It'll smell, sound, and feel like the deal that was voted

  • through three times before.

  • Because we know, from the EU, it's not

  • going to fundamentally change.

  • But what Mr Johnson wants is some tweaks here and there,

  • to make it sound and look like a new deal.

  • Yes, he can say it's all done.

  • But a lot of people in parliament, and particularly

  • the Conservative party, won't be convinced.

  • Now, I'm going to put you on the spot here, Sebastian.

  • A general election, what chances are there of Boris Johnson

  • winning a majority?

  • Or are we likely to see a deadlock,

  • as we have at the moment?

  • A deadlock is very likely.

  • If you look at the opinion polls and election experts

  • they essentially say that we get a result not too dissimilar

  • to what we've got now.

  • Because the Conservatives would lose a lot of their seats

  • in Scotland, to the Scottish National party.

  • They'd lose a lot of their seats in the more Remainier parts

  • of the country.

  • The Liberal Democrats would pick up

  • those metropolitan liberal seats that

  • were won under David Cameron.

  • But then, on the flip side, they would pick up

  • some Brexit supporting seats in the north and the Midlands.

  • So the Conservatives may end up quite like where they are now.

  • But the key factor is Nigel Farage,

  • the man who scares the Tories more than anything else.

  • Because if he runs, and runs on a very hard Brexit platform,

  • saying that it's no-deal, that's all that matters.

  • And he will take away the Conservative vote,

  • and potentially let in even more Liberal Democrats

  • in the south-west, say, and even more Labour seats in the north

  • and what have you.

  • So really, I think it's very hard

  • to see how the Conservatives are going to get through this.

  • But the campaigns are very volatile.

  • We remember 2017 when Theresa May

  • went in with a commanding position,

  • and came out having lost everything.

  • So an election is really going to depend on

  • what happens to the Brexit party,

  • and what Brexit message Boris Johnson runs on.

  • And finally, what happens to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour

  • party, particularly after our three part series this week

  • on the Corbyn revolution, which sets out vast spending plans

  • and a wholesale reversal of the Thatcher revolution.

  • Thank you, Sebastian.

Boris Johnson says he doesn't want a general election,

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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