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  • After a truly terrible week in the Commons,

  • Boris Johnson has finally got over the finish line

  • and managed to suspend or prorogue parliament.

  • It can't have come a moment too soon for him.

  • His record is six votes, six defeats,

  • the expulsion of 21 Tory rebels, the resignation of two cabinet

  • members, including his own brother.

  • What's more, he's been left dangling,

  • ordered by parliament to seek another Brexit delay,

  • which he insists he'll never do, but denied the election which

  • would get him out of this hole.

  • I'm here with Philip Stephens, a veteran observer

  • of British politics.

  • And I want to put it to you, Philip,

  • that although the obvious conclusion is that things have

  • gone terribly wrong for Boris Johnson this week,

  • the overarching strategy, which is to set himself

  • against parliament, to run a people versus parliament

  • election and proclaim himself as the deliverer of the people's

  • democracy, is still basically in place.

  • Well, to be honest, I'm puzzled, because, you know,

  • we've been told since Boris Johnson moved into Downing

  • Street that there was this great master

  • plan with this great master strategist,

  • a chap called Dominic Cummings.

  • What's your next move?

  • You guys should get out of London.

  • Go and talk to people who are not rich Remainers.

  • I cannot think of any government that's lost control of so many

  • things simultaneously in modern times.

  • If it's a master plan, as far as I'm concerned,

  • it was a master plan to fail.

  • I understand that, but isn't it the case

  • that when you say they've lost control, is they

  • never really had control.

  • They've never had a majority.

  • And so in a sense losing control was part of this process.

  • If they couldn't keep the Commons in line

  • they would rather show that it was frustrating them

  • and take it out to the election.

  • Well, I'm not sure whether they really

  • wanted to go from a majority of none

  • really to a majority of minus 40 something.

  • What's a few party members between friends?

  • Had, have a party which is even more fractious

  • because he has to watch for rebellions from the left now as

  • well as from the right.

  • Now look, you can argue I think that there's still

  • a strategy in that it is possible to imagine

  • the Conservatives winning an election.

  • But if they do win an election and they've

  • got to get through what's going to happen in October

  • about Brexit before that.

  • If they do win an election, it won't be because of anything

  • that they've done.

  • It will be because Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.

  • So actually, I do think it's very hard

  • to see in this government a strategy that is beyond the,

  • I think the pretty basic campaign, which

  • worked for vote Leave in 2016 but I don't think works

  • in a parliamentary context.

  • Do you, I mean, are you not struck

  • by either when you see vox pops on the television

  • from way outside of London or when you meet people who aren't

  • deeply involved in politics, the extent to which

  • voters just say, I'm sick of this.

  • This parliament is stopping him.

  • There isn't this wellspring of sympathy for Philip Hammond

  • and the other Tory rebels.

  • There are lots of frustration with them.

  • I think that's absolutely clear, but it's clear in the same way

  • as if you go across middle America

  • and talk to people there you will

  • find lots of people who are absolutely 100 solidly

  • behind Donald Trump.

  • But in Donald Trump's case it's 40 per cent of the electorate.

  • I think in the Conservatives' case they're running

  • what's called a 35 per cent strategy.

  • So what they're doing is, they're

  • hardening up the support among true Brexiters, if you like,

  • but they are discarding votes elsewhere.

  • So they've lost Scotland probably

  • with the resignation of Ruth Davidson.

  • And I think they probably lost a lot of the south of England

  • to the Liberal Democrats.

  • I mean, this raises the question of whether they

  • can win an election, or whether the Leave side win election

  • without some kind of deal with the Brexit party.

  • But as you say, they're running a 35 per cent strategy.

  • The polls are generally putting them somewhere

  • between 32 and 35.

  • They're giving the Brexit party, Nigel Farage's party, around 12

  • per cent to 13 per cent at the moment.

  • Clearly, that's way too much for Boris Johnson's liking.

  • Theresa May got 42 per cent and didn't win an election.

  • So what are they going to have to do with the Brexit party?

  • But can they tough it out on the assumption that in the end,

  • Nigel Farage is going to have to look at this and go,

  • if I run against the Conservatives, I'm going,

  • I could lose Brexit?

  • Well, I think we probably both agree

  • that this election is probably going

  • to be decided on a regional seat by seat basis rather

  • than the sort of national percentages.

  • But I think that for me, a path to put Boris Johnson back

  • into Downing Street, means taking 40,

  • 50 seats in the Labour heartlands,

  • and doing that against Nigel Farage is pretty much nigh

  • impossible.

  • So he's either got to do a deal with him

  • or get him out the way.

  • I think so, yeah.

  • Even then, I mean, we've talked about this a lot,

  • but 40, 50 seats is still quite a lot.

  • It is what Theresa May did, and as I said,

  • she got 42 per cent of the vote.

  • Yes.

  • Or she tried to do.

  • I think, you know, I think if I were a Conservative strategist

  • in number 10, I'd simply be praying for complete collapse.

  • If you were a Conservative, they'd

  • have marched you out by now.

  • I would have been pushed out.

  • But I probably would've done rather better

  • than the existing ones.

  • But I think they have to pray for a complete collapse

  • in the Labour vote.

  • And I think the only way that the Conservatives can win

  • a majority is if the Labour vote doesn't just fall sharply,

  • but if it collapses towards 20 per cent.

  • The one thing to consider is obviously at the last election,

  • the Conservatives and Labour got between them around 83 per cent

  • of the vote, the most vicious third-party squeeze in modern

  • memory.

  • The Liberal Democrats are not going to do that badly again.

  • So that could affect the results in all kinds of places.

  • Yes, I think we're going to have odd results

  • in different places.

  • I would, if I had to guess, I'd guess

  • that the Liberals are going to be up to 30, 40 seats quite

  • easily.

  • And that's mostly the Tory's expense.

  • And that's mostly at the Tory's expense.

  • I think the SNP will have more or less a clean sweep

  • in Scotland, because Labour are in desperate trouble

  • in Scotland as well.

  • I think you might even get the odd Greens.

  • And it depends whether, I mean, a lot will

  • depend on how well the Remain side coalesces, as it were.

  • I think if there is some sort of deal understanding

  • between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage,

  • then a lot will rest on whether Remainers,

  • if you want to call them that, across the parties,

  • do at least some informal deals.

  • And what about independent Tories?

  • Are we going to see some of them?

  • Well, I think we are, and I think you know,

  • talking to some of them privately,

  • what you hear from them, is even if I don't win a seat myself,

  • I'm going to extract a price.

  • Excellent.

  • So I would very much expect, you know,

  • Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd to be standing.

  • One last thought.

  • Boris Johnson's now got five weeks

  • before parliament sits again.

  • He can spend a bit of time trying to get a deal,

  • maybe he can, maybe he can't.

  • But if we get to October the 19th, he hasn't got a deal,

  • he's faced with the choice of comply

  • with the law telling him he has to seek an extension or resign,

  • or try and defy the law, what's your best

  • bet as to which way he'll go?

  • Well, I'm not sure which way he'll go,

  • but I would guess, given the pledges given yesterday

  • in the Commons about obeying the law that he will sign and then

  • resign.

  • So he will sign the letter asking for an extension

  • saying he had to obey the law, and then resign,

  • saying I'm a man of principle.

  • Funny words to attach to Boris Johnson,

  • but he would claim to be a man of principle and then resign.

  • Actually, that may not be as terrible for him

  • as some people suggest in terms of his electoral appeal.

  • I think there's a chance that Leavers will believe him

  • when he says, I was forced into doing this.

  • Look, I think the Leavers will vote for Boris Johnson and/or

  • the Brexit party, because you know,

  • we do see this divide in British politics now, which is,

  • you know, as much about Leave or Remain as about Tory,

  • Labour or other, you know, old tribal identity.

  • So look, I think he, the Brexit side

  • can be sure of getting perhaps 40

  • per cent of the electorate in a general election.

  • But whether that's enough for a majority,

  • I don't, I don't think so.

  • I think, you know, the central forecast now

  • must be for a general election and another hung parliament.

  • Well, its good to know that will sort everything out.

  • Thanks very much.

  • Thank you.

After a truly terrible week in the Commons,

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Brexit.ボリス・ジョンソンは失敗するつもりだったのか?| 話題になっているのは、「ボリス・ジョンソンは失敗するつもりだったのか? (Brexit: Did Boris Johnson plan to fail? | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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