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  • Hardline forces in Iran have succeeded at the ballot box

  • for the first time in seven years,

  • partly by capitalising on Donald Trump's hostility and maximum

  • pressure strategy.

  • The parliamentary elections weaken

  • president Hassan Rouhani, who is in his second and final term.

  • And it further crushes reformers' hopes

  • that the country could open up to the outside world.

  • It also sets the tone for presidential elections

  • next year, with analysts predicting

  • another hardline victory.

  • But a low turnout also reflects the disillusionment

  • many Iranians feel towards their leaders

  • across the political spectrum.

  • At this polling station in Tehran

  • people turned out in decent numbers.

  • But at others there was just a trickle.

  • I met one 25-year old who voted for Rouhani in 2017.

  • Back then, he hoped the nuclear deal

  • Iran signed with world powers would usher

  • in a new period of prosperity.

  • Now, he says he was brainwashed.

  • He didn't vote this time, saying all politicians are the same.

  • Such grim emotions are common in a country of 80m people facing

  • increasing economic hardship.

  • Trump's sanctions have strangled the government's ability

  • to export oil and pushed the country into a deep recession.

  • The Iranian regime must abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons,

  • stop spreading terror, death, and destruction,

  • and start working for the good of its own people.

  • Mr Rouhani said in December that Iran had lost more than $200bn

  • in revenue and investment as a result of Mr Trump's

  • maximum pressure strategy.

  • Prices soared as inflation rocket up to about 40 per cent.

  • And the Iranian rial lost more than half its value

  • over the past two years.

  • The government is struggling for foreign currency, cut off

  • from the global banking network.

  • But shops are still well stocked.

  • Years of isolation in four decades,

  • since the 1979 Islamic Revolution,

  • forced the republic to develop a diversified economy.

  • Iranian companies produce much of the country's food,

  • pharmaceuticals, steel, and cement needs.

  • And some factories manufacturing household appliances

  • and textiles are expanding.

  • This is all part of the government being forced to push

  • import substitution policies.

  • The car industry, which employs more than 500,000 people,

  • is a prime example.

  • After Peugeot and Renault pulled out of joint ventures

  • in the country because of US sanctions,

  • the government is desperate for local production

  • to fill the gap and for the sector

  • to remain an important part of the economy.

  • And here at the Iran Khodro facility

  • where the company is ramping up production.

  • In September, it was producing just 900 cars a day.

  • But now it's 2,000, and the company

  • plans to go to more than 2,500 or about 2,500 in a few months.

  • The reason for the increase is partly due to government

  • support, help from the Ministry of Defence,

  • which is helping produce some of the more technical components

  • you need to produce these cars, and also

  • because of the localisation of spare parts.

  • Before, the company was relying more on imports.

  • Now, it's relying more on local production

  • because of sanctions.

  • It's an example of how Iranian companies are trying

  • to get around the US regime of maximum pressure

  • to ensure they maintain output.

  • But this cannot mask the intense pressure on the economy.

  • Iran's oil exports are vital for foreign currency earnings.

  • Analysts estimate they've plummeted to a few 100,000

  • barrels a day because of US sanctions.

  • The IMF forecasts zero growth this year.

  • Most foreign companies have pulled out.

  • Virtually no western bank will do business

  • with an Iranian entity.

  • And that's despite the fact that most of the world,

  • including European and Asian governments,

  • oppose Mr Trump's decision to pull out of the nuclear deal

  • and impose sanctions.

  • Iranian businessmen are forced to import

  • goods using trans-shipment hubs in Iraq, Turkey, the United

  • Arab Emirates, and Afghanistan, as they struggle

  • to keep their companies going.

  • Iran's crisis began in May 2018, when Mr Trump unilaterally

  • withdrew the US from the nuclear deal, which Iran

  • had signed three years earlier.

  • Under the accord, Tehran had agreed

  • to limit its nuclear activity in return

  • for the lifting of many western sanctions.

  • Iranians were beginning to feel the benefits as the republic's

  • oil exports soared.

  • Western companies, including Peugeot and Renault,

  • returned, keen to tap into the country's

  • vast natural resources and large consumer

  • market with a youthful aspirant population.

  • But after pulling out of the nuclear deal,

  • Washington imposed wave after wave of sanctions,

  • and Iran responded by increasing its nuclear activity.

  • The US blamed Tehran for a September attack

  • that struck at the heart of Saudi Arabia's oil industry.

  • As well as sabotage attacks on tankers

  • in the Gulf in May and June.

  • The US and Iran came to the brink of full-blown war

  • in January, after Mr Trump authorised the assassination

  • of General Kassim Soleimani, Iran's most

  • powerful and revered commander.

  • Iran retaliated by firing more than a dozen missiles

  • at Iraqi military bases hosting US troops.

  • Iranian officials appear resigned to the fact

  • that Mr Trump could now secure another four years at the White

  • House.

  • A few days ago we took bold and decisive action.

  • Brigardier-General Hossein Dehghan, a military adviser

  • to Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, Iran's supreme leader,

  • told me that Iran did not want war.

  • But he said Tehran continues to support its regional proxies,

  • and to develop its ballistic missile programme.

  • The result is that the economic pressures

  • on all ordinary Iranians is only likely to increase.

  • Tensions will remain high throughout the region,

  • the lingering fear that they could erupt.

  • Hardliners will be in the ascendancy at the centre

  • of the Islamic Republic's power structures.

  • Public disgruntlement has exploded onto the streets

  • in recent months.

  • In November, several hundred people

  • were killed as security forces put down

  • protests triggered by massive hikes to fuel prices.

  • Anti-regime protests erupted again in January,

  • after the government admitted mistakenly shooting down

  • a Ukrainian airliner killing all 176 people on board.

  • The January protests were notable

  • for the brazen verbal attacks against the elite Revolutionary

  • Guards and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

  • Perhaps the biggest challenge facing Iran's leaders

  • is managing the country's depleted resources

  • while maintaining social stability.

Hardline forces in Iran have succeeded at the ballot box

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イランの強硬派が議会選挙に勝った理由|FT (Why Iran's hardliners won parliamentary elections | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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