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  • After a tense build up, at last Britain and the EU

  • have secured a Brexit deal.

  • I'm joined by Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, our world news

  • editor, to discuss these dramatic developments

  • and whether it might actually, finally lead

  • to a resolution of the Brexit issue.

  • Anne-Sylvaine, it's been a very dramatic morning

  • hearing that this breakthrough was real or not just a mirage.

  • But do you think that the mood in the rest of Europe

  • is just relief that at least, at least something has changed,

  • or do you think they really think

  • that they've secured a good mutually beneficial Brexit

  • deal?

  • Yeah.

  • There is a sentiment that there's a deal there

  • that is actually not far from the withdrawal

  • deal, the withdrawal agreement that Teresa May initially

  • negotiated, but you know respecting

  • the EU red lines, especially with regards

  • to the island of Ireland, and the integrity

  • of the single market.

  • So, yes, there is hope that this deal can be...

  • can allow an orderly exit of Great Britain, of the UK,

  • out of the EU.

  • And obviously, you know, this is only

  • the start of long negotiations.

  • And that transition period will now be ensured, right?

  • Which is extremely important for both sides to minimise

  • disruption.

  • Absolutely.

  • And so the big change is that, I mean, compared

  • with the previous withdrawal agreement,

  • is that Northern Ireland is now part

  • of the EU customs with mechanism to keep it also

  • part of the British customs.

  • And so, you know, and also from a regulatory point of view,

  • Northern Ireland would be aligned, especially on goods,

  • with the EU.

  • And EU laws will apply to Northern Ireland.

  • So, in a way, the EU had red lines

  • and they are respected from that point of view.

  • But then the rest of the UK, Great Britain

  • without Northern Ireland, is very firmly out, right?

  • In fact, this is quite a hard Brexit

  • for the rest of the UK with Northern Ireland.

  • Well almost partitioned off in terms of customs.

  • There is a border.

  • There's a border.

  • You know checks will be made...

  • will be made at...

  • between the Irish Sea.

  • Yes.

  • So, yes.

  • But that's, yeah.

  • That's basically what the deal is about.

  • And also I think down the line there

  • might be some divergence in terms of regulatory mechanism

  • or framework.

  • And the question now will be Northern Ireland.

  • So here in the UK, of course, it's

  • very politically fraught still.

  • Yeah.

  • And agreeing the deal between the UK government and Brussels

  • and then the rest of the EU governments

  • also need to come on board.

  • Barnier assumes they will, correct?

  • Tonight.

  • Yeah.

  • You know, it's remarkable to see how the EU has

  • conducted these negotiations.

  • Very united front.

  • Barnier has negotiated.

  • He's going to present that deal tonight,

  • but everybody's on board, Macron, Merkel, et cetera.

  • So I think that's going to be a formality tonight.

  • So then the drama will move to the UK,

  • where on Saturday there is this special sitting of the House

  • of Commons.

  • Hasn't happened since the early 80s during the Falklands war.

  • Really very dramatic thing to do to call parliament

  • to a sitting on Saturday.

  • And then it would be a question of can

  • Boris Johnson achieve what Theresa May was not able to do.

  • Because, of course, she also agreed a deal with the EU.

  • But then three times it failed dramatically

  • and by a large margin in the House of Commons.

  • So Boris Johnson has now got to try and play off these

  • different sides, buy in some Labour votes,

  • and keep his right wing onside.

  • And still, the DUP - the Democratic Unionist party -

  • those 10 MPs who've been keeping the Tory party afloat

  • since they lost their majority, they're not quite on board.

  • I mean how much will Brussels also

  • be worrying about the political drama in the UK?

  • Or do they think that Boris Johnson

  • is such a sort of different figure

  • that he can pull it off politically?

  • That's probably what Boris Johnson has told them -

  • that he would be able to bring these DUP MPs on board.

  • And so that's really a question of...

  • really a question for you is how unity...

  • which extent Boris Johnson would be able to bring them on board?

  • Can he bend them before Saturday?

  • What do you think?

  • It's extraordinary.

  • I mean he's got to...

  • his right wing, the ERG - the European Research Group

  • - some of them are now in his cabinet.

  • So those people are now completely

  • on board for his plan.

  • They will clearly be recommending, and have

  • done, to their colleagues on the right of the Tory party

  • and also to the Democratic Unionists: come on,

  • you've got to back this deal.

  • But for the DUP this issue of having different conditions

  • in Northern Ireland, it's a fundamental existential problem

  • for them.

  • Because the reason their party exists is to defend the union.

  • And so, you know, it will be an amazing trick

  • if he pulls it off.

  • The thing that, I think, will help him

  • is one of his concessions in the negotiations.

  • So he has agreed, in the political declaration -

  • which is the kind of foreword to the withdrawal agreement -

  • to keep in there promises on regulatory alignment.

  • Which means lots of things, like workers' rights,

  • environmental protections, et cetera.

  • That could help him buy in a few crucial Labour party MPs,

  • 19 of whom wrote to the EU last week asking for a deal which

  • contained these elements.

  • So I think there's going to be some very interesting sort

  • of interplay between Number 10 and these individuals

  • on the Labour party benches.

  • That's interesting.

  • Well we'll see on Saturday if he can pull it off.

  • We will see on Saturday.

  • But then we will move on, as you quite rightly

  • said to years and years of further negotiation.

  • It's only the start of long, long, you know,

  • discussions and debates.

After a tense build up, at last Britain and the EU

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Brexitの突破口は本当に解決をもたらすのか?| FT (Can Brexit breakthrough really bring resolution? | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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