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  • - Hey guys, Bradley tuning in,

  • coming at you with another video.

  • There's a lot of news talking about interest rates,

  • there's been a lot of confusion

  • as to what we think is gonna happen with interest rates,

  • and so I wanted to create this video for you

  • to really summarize what you can expect to see

  • at the second half of 2019 into 2020

  • as far as what's gonna happen with interest rates

  • and what that means for you qualifying for a home.

  • But before I get started, my name is Bradley.

  • We do videos like this every week

  • to keep you updated in the latest tips and tricks

  • here in the Toronto real estate market.

  • I'm so excited to bring this content to you.

  • I wanted to create this video because I've had

  • a number of you asking me to go back to the good old days

  • when I would share information on Toronto real estate market

  • and so that's what I wanted to do,

  • I wanna continue to hit you with

  • amazing content related to our local real estate market here

  • because that's what we do best,

  • that's what our followers are looking for,

  • and I think this is a great place to start.

  • Talking about interest rates and

  • what my predictions will be for this year.

  • What do we know lately that has

  • happened as far as mortgages?

  • There's been a number of changes that would

  • affect the way you would qualify

  • before we get into the specific numbers on interest rate.

  • Recently, the central bank reduced its

  • benchmark qualifying rate from 5.34 to 5.19.

  • Now this marks the first time they've

  • lowered this number since September of 2016.

  • Now, if you're like me you're probably thinking,

  • well whoop dee doo, that doesn't

  • change a whole lot, and you're right.

  • In fact, you'd only qualify for an extra 1.4% of your home.

  • So you're gonna get a little bit more money,

  • but what I find fascinating is this trend,

  • this movement that where we've been

  • climbing this qualifying rate but now,

  • all of a sudden, there's a shift

  • where it's starting to come back down.

  • Now, I wanna ask you, do you guys think that this

  • trend, this change in the way that we're

  • qualifying buyers, first time buyers or otherwise,

  • do you think that this is gonna continue

  • or do you think this is just a one off way of saying,

  • you know what, we're gonna stop here?

  • Now, what is most fascinating to me on this subject

  • was recently the CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association,

  • a man by the name of Tim Hudak,

  • and if you follow politics you would know that name,

  • has recently put forward for federal

  • policy makers some suggested changes.

  • Now, why I find this so fascinating

  • is it really reminds me, it's almost a trigger

  • back from 2017, back when the market was superheated

  • and there were all these recommendations coming

  • and what the government should do to try and help it out.

  • In this case, it seems to be going the opposite way,

  • we're trying to help buyers now get the market moving again,

  • but it just really reminds me of those days

  • and that was one of the triggers,

  • if you remember back then, that was one of the

  • triggers for me that flagged that the

  • market was going to turn back the other way,

  • that there was a potential for a drop

  • as this foreign buyer tax came in.

  • But what exactly is he recommending?

  • There's three things.

  • The number one recommendation is to ease up

  • on this stress test which is what we actually just saw.

  • So, this is evidence that they are listening

  • to the consumer, they're listening

  • to the real estate associations.

  • The other side is, when it comes to renewals

  • which is also a big part of the platforms

  • in this new political race that's

  • coming up next year with our elections,

  • is this idea of removing the stress test

  • for people who are moving from one lender to another.

  • There's no sense in qualifying over and over again,

  • and in many cases, the banks are taking

  • the opportunity to gouge their rates.

  • And another angle, which I find very fascinating,

  • is the request for 30 year mortgages

  • which would mean lower borrowing cost

  • but spread it over a longer period of time,

  • which would have its own unique challenges

  • and maybe we'll talk about it in the future.

  • So, that's what we've seen as far as mortgage guidelines go

  • but when we're talking about interest rates,

  • you can't jump into what we're doing

  • until you look at what the United States is doing,

  • and it's such an interesting world down there.

  • The news articles that are flying by me

  • talking about the president and the way that he's

  • talking with their central bank

  • and this, kind of, battle, this feud between

  • whether they should reverse the way

  • that interest rates have been changing.

  • But even now, we find the central bank is agreeing

  • in that, they're talking about

  • reducing their interest rates and having this plan

  • to have it sort of slowly come backwards.

  • In fact, I'm gonna read you a quote

  • that comes out of the decisions that they're making

  • at their central bank and they say this,

  • "uncertainties around trade tension

  • and concerns about the strength of the global economy

  • continue to weigh on the US economic outlook."

  • They also go on to say that "the business

  • investment growth has slowed notably."

  • So, they're starting to say, you know what,

  • maybe there is a need for us to reduce these rates

  • and so they've turned direction,

  • but we don't really see Canada necessarily following suit

  • which we'll get into in just a second.

  • But I would suggest, as far as USA goes,

  • you can expect to see them do a rate drop,

  • maybe two rate drops, before the end of 2019.

  • Now, I wanna turn to our beautiful country, Canada.

  • Now, we know what the US is doing,

  • we know what some of the guidelines have done

  • to make mortgages easier and what

  • kinda trajectory they're on, but let's

  • listen from the Bank of Canada

  • what they have to say about our interest rates.

  • So, the Bank of Canada said, "recent data shows

  • that the Canadian economy is returning to

  • potential growth," but then they go on to say,

  • so that's the good, there's a lot of

  • growth happening in our country

  • but on the other side it says this,

  • "however, the outlook is clouded

  • by persistent trade tensions."

  • We've just heard that in the announcement from the US.

  • So, there is this overarching cloud that sits above us

  • that there is international tension

  • that is really hindering these guys

  • from continuing to grow their interest rates

  • even in a place like Canada where there is

  • great jobs, oil is doing very well,

  • and these are some of the other contributing factors,

  • but because of the geopolitical tensions

  • and these feuds going on around the world,

  • we're left thinking, you know what,

  • maybe we're better to stay put.

  • Now, if you want more fun information on this,

  • I'm actually gonna be creating a video

  • talking about some of the risks,

  • the biggest risks I think that are facing the GTA

  • and our real estate market in the coming years.

  • I'm gonna post that in the next few weeks

  • so make sure you check that one out as well.

  • So, ultimately, when we look at what Canada's doing

  • we have this giant scale, you know?

  • We have the side where there is just

  • great output of jobs and production

  • and we're doing really well, in fact, our Canadian dollar

  • is going up which has its own challenges as well,

  • but on the flip side we have this challenge,

  • this equal balance of trade uncertainty and tension

  • and because of this, recently Canada has

  • held their rates the same despite this

  • awareness that the US is intending to drop theirs.

  • Now, the question is, is that gonna continue?

  • And from my perspective, in my opinion

  • and based on my predictions, which is

  • the point of this video, I anticipate

  • that our rates are gonna look very similar

  • to how they do now for the next

  • six months, at least, maybe going into 2020.

  • If there is any changes whatsoever,

  • you can expect that it would actually be

  • a decrease, again, contributing back from

  • the fact that the Canadian dollar is doing so well,

  • it actually harms us when it comes to trade.

  • But where is there an opportunity on all of this?

  • Well, you could immediately identify

  • that this is a great variable mortgage environment.

  • This is a place where you wanna have variable mortgage.

  • Now, I personally, I'm gonna own my own home

  • which I'm sitting in right now,

  • got a variable mortgage not that long ago,

  • and I think a lot of it was coming from

  • seeing this writing on the wall.

  • We are practicing what we preach.

  • But at the same time, there's also

  • great deals right now on fixed rate mortgages,

  • and in some cases, they're actually

  • cheaper than variable mortgages.

  • So, this is an opportunity for those of you

  • who are looking to invest, but ultimately

  • having a stable interest rate is actually great.

  • The stability is awesome when it comes to

  • growing real estate, and it's a very

  • healthy thing to have and so, this is good news.

  • This combined with, here in Toronto,

  • this removal or the watering down of this stress test,

  • and also at a supply issue, which I will also be doing

  • a video on in the coming weeks because this is, I think,

  • the single biggest red flag that's in my eyes.

  • It's just flashing and I don't think

  • anyone's paying attention to it so I wanna

  • share that with you coming up so make sure you

  • follow us on Watson Estates for that type of content.

  • But all of these things are pointing to

  • an appreciation in price, a growth

  • in the local Toronto real estate market,

  • and these are overall great things.

  • It's great for our country, and if you're looking to invest

  • and you wanna qualify for a mortgage,

  • there's some serious opportunities for you

  • that maybe haven't existed for a little while.

  • I'm gonna leave it with you guys.

  • What do you think is gonna happen in 2019 and 2020

  • as far as our global economy goes, as far as interest rates?

  • Share those down in the comments below.

  • Make sure you share this and hit that thumbs up

  • and the bell for notifications,

  • however we can stay in contact with you.

  • I'll see you next time, take care and keep it real.

- Hey guys, Bradley tuning in,

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2019-2020年のカナダの金利予測 (Canadian Interest Rates Prediction for 2019-2020)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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