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  • Welcome to Sensible Transfers; a video series in which we make transfer suggestions that

  • suit the style of the club were discussing. If youre unfamiliar with the rules or methodology,

  • you can watch our Sensible Transfers Rules video as linked below. Today’s club is Arsenal.

  • Mikel Arteta has only just taken over at Arsenal in real termshe’s played four games

  • at the time of writing this video, overseeing wins against Manchester United and Leeds United,

  • drawing against Bournemouth, and losing to Chelsea. That makes it tough to say much about

  • how Arteta might want to set Arsenal up tactically. We can infer two main things from his matches

  • in charge so far: he likes a 4-2-3-1, and he likes to push the left back higher and

  • tuck the right back inside to make a third defensive midfielder, an inverted full back

  • if you like.

  • He’s likely to favour a possession-based approach with fluid positional interchange

  • between players, but Arsenal are a bit of a mess at the moment and it will take time

  • for him to show his real coaching philosophy.

  • So where do Arsenal need to strengthen? Probably not up front, where Alexandre Lacazette and

  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are both good players, even if fitting them in together is tricky.

  • Nicolas Pepe has looked good in bursts, while Gabriel Martinelli is an exciting prospect.

  • In attacking central midfield, Arsenal have Mesut Ozil and a number of prospects who should

  • all get a chance to impress, should Arteta keep the 4-2-3-1. Full back is a tricky area,

  • because Kieran Tierney is a good prospect who has had injury issues, while Saed Kolasinac

  • is offensively good but defensively shaky. On the other flank, Hector Bellerin has again

  • barely featured because of injury, while Ashley Maitland-Niles is probably a stop-gap but

  • Arteta’s inverted full-back move on the right could suit him. Weve therefore identified

  • defensive central midfield and centre back as the most pressing areas of concern.

  • Weve looked for players 27 or under who have racked up more than 700 minutes, so that

  • there’s a reasonable data set and each player is either entering their peak or is still

  • a prospect. It’s always trickier mid-season so weve adjusted minutes played down from

  • our summer benchmark. These players could be useful pick-ups for January, but they should

  • also be considered longer term optionsArsenal are in a building cycle, again, so that should

  • be factored in.

  • Arsenal don’t want a purely destructive midfielder, especially if Arteta persists

  • with the 4-2-3-1: both axes in a double pivot need to be able to do something with the ball,

  • especially against good pressing teams who can tie up the more creative passer. There’s

  • actually a good argument given Arsenal’s midfield options to deploy a 4-3-3, flanking

  • a destroyer with Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira, but so far Arteta seems to prefer

  • using Mesut Ozil as a ten.

  • So weve looked for midfielders who show up defensively well, but are able to use the

  • ball too. That’s why some good defensive midfielders in the Premier League like Philip

  • Billing, Marvellous Nakamba, and Tom Trybull have been discountedthey don’t currently

  • show enough with the ball.

  • We looked at a few other options, all of whom could do a good job but with caveats: Torino’s

  • Daniele Baselli (at the top end of our age bracket at 27), Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch

  • and RB Leipzig’s Konrad Laimer (both potentially expensive and more likely to move to a Bundesliga

  • side). In the end, though, two players stood out.

  • A raw, but nonetheless persuasive option, is Le Harve’s Pape Gueye. He’s only 20,

  • 6ft2 in height, and has huge potential. In terms of passing, for Ligue 2 players under

  • 28, he’s eight for through passes with 1.5 per 90, fourth for passes to the final third

  • with 11.1 per 90, and 25th for progressive passes, with 9.4 per 90 – those above him

  • are mostly defenders who tend to rack up better progressive passing numbers. Defensively,

  • he manages 6.6 interceptions per 90 adjusted for opposition possession, 6.9 defensive duels

  • per 90, and he’s second for percentage of aerial duels won among the Ligue 2 midfielders

  • we considered. The numbers only tell some of the story thoughwatching Gueye, it’s

  • clear that he has huge talent. He’s always looking to progress the ball, turns with it

  • well, has the skill and strength to shield it, and can pass well with both feet. He’s

  • dynamic and has an intelligent range of passing. Under the experienced coach Paul Le Guen,

  • who won Ligue 1 three times with Lyon, Gueye is developing well and should become a genuinely

  • dominant midfielder for a Premier League side to build around.

  • Our choice, though, is Toulouse’s Ibrahim Sangare, who is 22 and 6ft3. He’s made 11.1

  • final third passes per 90, 7th of all the midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues

  • considered by age and minutes played. He’s also made 2.2 passes to the penalty area per

  • 90 and 1.5 through passes per 90. Defensively, he’s winning 8.2 duels per 90, which puts

  • him 27th of the top five midfielders we looked at, but combining this with creativity, he’s

  • outperforming the rest of that group with the exception of Marco Verratti and Joshua

  • Kimmich, both different kinds of players in very dominant sides. Even for deep completed

  • passes he’s up thereon that list sorted by defensive ability, only Casemiro, Verratti,

  • Konrad Laimer, Florian Grillistch, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (who would also be an interesting

  • signing for Arsenal) manage to find their teammates in dangerous areas more.

  • Sangare is very quick and covers defend his left back well, which would be useful in Arteta’s

  • set-up. He looks slightly less comfortable on the ball than Gueye, but he’s a more

  • dynamic defender, has more experience at a higher level, and is closer to being the finished

  • article. But that’s why he’d cost significantly more.

  • It’s a rather boring assertion by now, but Arsenal still need a centre-back. At least

  • one, possibly two. Of course, William Saliba is on loan at St Etienne, where he was purchased

  • from, but he’s not been a regular by any means due to his injury issues. In the four

  • league games he’s played the full match, St Etienne managed three wins and one draw,

  • and three clean sheets. Saliba has played on the right of a three man back line, impressing

  • with his positioning and defensive abilities. But, a loan spell that was supposed to continue

  • his development has been frustratingly hampered by those injuries, so it’s very hard to

  • say if he’s going to be the kind of dominant defensive presence Arsenal need next season.

  • He’s certainly an excellent prospect, though, and Arsenal should be pleased to have secured

  • his services.

  • The good young centre-backs in Europe, players like Dayot Upamecano, Nico Elvedi, Felix Uduokhai

  • and Sebastian Posch, who we recommended for Arsenal last season, should still all be under

  • consideration, especially Poschthough Upamecano is likely out of Arsenal’s price

  • range. There are other intriguing prospects: 22 year old Keven Schlotterbeck has only managed

  • just over 700 minutes for a surprisingly successful Union Berlin side but looks like an accomplished

  • defender, albeit with a bad disciplinary record, with one red and three yellows in that limited

  • sample of minutes. Another St Etienne product, 19 year old Wesley Fofana, has similarly limited

  • game time, but is making 10.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and winning 70% of his seven

  • aerial duels per 90. But Arsenal need someone more experienced, ideally in the 24-27 age

  • range, who can challenge Sokratis and David Luiz (or just replace them), defensively solid,

  • especially aerially, and with a decent range of passing.

  • Alexander Djiku of RC Strasbourg is an intriguing possibility. He’s played as a defensive

  • midfielder, as well as a centre back in both a back four and back three, as well, so he’s

  • versatile. Six foot tall, left-footed, and 25 years old, Djiku is part of an RC Strasbourg

  • side punching above their weight under coach Thierry Laurey. Djiku makes just under nine

  • successful defensive duels per 90 and wins 68% of his 4.4 aerial duels per 90. His interceptions

  • numbers are relatively low but RC are a league average pressing side and Djiku is able to

  • adjust and be more aggressive as a defensive midfielder, so he would likely be able to

  • play in a more front-foot defending side if required. He’s not the most adventurous

  • passer, high in volume but low in progressions, but RC’s defence are conservative passers

  • generally, preferring to give the ball to the keeper Matz Sels or midfielder Dimitri

  • Lienard to hit long. Djiku is one of three RC Salsbourg players we really like, along

  • with 22 year old full back Anthony Caci and Mohamed Simakin, a 19 year old centre-back

  • Arsenal might do well to acquire several of them!

  • Our pick, however, is 27 year old Austrian Martin Hinteregger of Eintracht Frankfurt.

  • He’s 6ft tall, quick enough, and possesses a good all-round game, with six league goals

  • and one assist to go with his 8.4 successful defensive duels per 90 and 4.9 aerial duels

  • won at 61%. He’s a front foot defender, in line with Eintracht’s high tempo, aggressive

  • style, making 7.5 interceptions per 90; this approach does mean he gets caught out sometimes,

  • and Eintracht can look flimsy out wide so as a left-sided centre back in a three he’s

  • constantly being drawn that way. However, in a more disciplined back four, these issues

  • should be smoothed out. He’s not afraid to carry the ball, making 1.8 dribbles per

  • 90 at a success rate of 45%, and he also makes 8.1 final third passes, 1.4 passes to the

  • penalty area, and 11.6 progressive passes, all per 90. From an all-round perspective,

  • then, he ticks a number of boxesexperienced, old enough to lead a defence without being

  • past his peak, defensively strong and capable of moving the ball forwards well, and chipping

  • in with goals. He’s not a glamour signing, but then Arsenal need solidity over sparkle

  • at the back, and Hinteregger would be an upgrade on their existing options and bring a variety

  • of skills to the side.

  • And here’s how our team would line up, showing several options:

Welcome to Sensible Transfers; a video series in which we make transfer suggestions that

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センシティブな移籍。アーセナル (Sensible Transfers: Arsenal)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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