Name: 株式市場と経済の違い (The Difference Between The Stock Market And The Economy)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:46:31.000Z
Duration: 7 min 4 s
Description: VoiceTubeの動画で発音を聞きながら英語表現を覚えよう！学べる英語：

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled by 831 points, that's 3.2%.

the largest December decline since the Great Depression.

Does this mean I'm going to lose my job? Does this mean I'm about to have the best year I've ever had in my business?

What is the relationship between what stock prices are doing

Main Street, what's happening in the \real economy?

Very few deviations kind of like an economic trend.

Then when you think about what the dog is doing. The dog is running around like a lunatic.

Maybe it chases a squirrel, barks again. The thing with the dog is that's the stock market.

good way to control your own emotions and to say to yourself "Ok the economy

is probably not fluctuating to the same extent that the dog is or the stock market is."

Here's the S&P 500 plotted against GDP growth. You'll notice that in any one

given year you can have some divergence between the two.

Stock market meanwhile went up 26% that year.

adjusted economic growth fell 0.2%. Stock market was up almost 40% that year.

Again, they're related kind of going in the same direction over long stretches.

But in any one calendar year, they don't necessarily have to look alike at all.

All things being equal, even if I gave you next year's economic information,

You certainly would know what the reaction of the stock market or the bond market are going to be.

You could have any economic outcome and have any stock market reaction to it.

Up to an including a terrible reaction a great reaction or no reaction.

Do stocks tell us what the economy is about to do.

sometimes. So stocks are thought of as a leading indicator for the economy but

a lot of times they get things wrong or stock market prices overreact.

Good evening, The stock market went into a freefall losing more in one day

I always point out in 1987. That was a 23% percent crash within one day. The economy didn't even notice.

I don't think anyone should panic because all the economic indicators are solid.

But we've had examples where the stock market has been an accurate predictor of what would happen with the economy

and maybe the best example would be the 2000 dotcom crash the worst day ever on Wall Street.

All the major indices are now down for the year.

until the year 2000 and then all of a sudden the stock market was saying

things have gotten way too hot started to come down got worse spread from

technology stocks into mainstream stocks and within a year we were in a fairly long recession.

So there are times where the market is giving you that signal.

Then there are times where the market is giving you a signal that doesn't end up leading to anything.

And being able to tell the difference between the two is nearly impossible especially in real time.

So whenever you hear someone make a stock market forecast based on how the economy is currently doing

or how they think the economy will be doing, it's very important for you to remember

how many other variables impact stock prices and the stock market.

Everything from geopolitics, natural disasters, interest rates, tax rates.

Whether or not there is any kind of fiscal program that takes place. Whether

or not there is any kind of change in the law for things like buybacks or dividends.

There are so many things that can happen that are not GDP that

will affect the prices of stocks that it's nearly impossible to point to any one metric whether it's jobless claims

growth and say this plus this equals that. If it were that simple we would all be rich.

Everyone would know exactly how to invest and 2018 offers us a perfect example.

The American economy growing at its strongest pace in four years Payrolls rose by 250,000 jobs.

So here's a year where you've got solid GDP growth you've got the unemployment

rate steadily dropping month after month millions of jobs being added

really no negative issues with the economy whatsoever.

All of the ingredients that you can ask for to say this is a good economy this is a good environment for business.

that I would have all these great things I wouldn't have expected a down 5% year for stocks and that goes

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株式市場と経済の違い (The Difference Between The Stock Market And The Economy)

depression

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accurate

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