As on 5th February, 2020, due to the widely spreading corona virus all over the globe ,

more than 24,000 people have been infected

and more than 494 people have died

Is it really that dangerous? Do you really need to be afraid?

Or is the media making a mountain out of a molehill and creating an atmosphere of fear?

Come let us see

The first thing you need to understand is that Corona Virus is not the name of a single virus

The name Corona Virus has been assigned to a family of viruses

Should I tell you an interesting fact?

The common cold- the cough and cold that you catch during winters- that too, is a type of Corona Virus

In 2002-03, a SARS virus had become widespread, if you remember. That too, was a type of Corona Virus

And what is affecting the people right now is a new type of Corona Virus

There's a place in China called Wuhan

It was found there on 31st December, 2019

This new strain of Corona Virus has been named N-COV - Novel Corona Virus

Novel means new

This strain is so new that they could not even think of a name

So they named it Novel Corona Virus

The new Corona Virus looks somewhat like this

The original source of most of the Corona Viruses is mostly some animal

which affects a human and then later through human to human contact

and through human to human transmission, these corona viruses spread amongst humans

For example, in the case of SARS, the original source was a bat

MERS is another similar Corona Virus which spread in the Middle East during 2012-13

The original source of that was a camel

The exact original source of the new Corona Virus which has not yet been discovered

Some scientists suspect that the original source might be snakes

But some scientists believe that they might be bats again

because there are 96% similarities in the new corona virus as compared to the Corona Virus that came from bats

The symptoms of all these Corona Viruses are very similar to each other

For example, cough, cold, headache, fever, chills, sore throat-

All these happen to you even when you catch a cough and cold normally or when you catch a seasonal flu

And these are the symptoms of the New Corona Virus too

This is an unfortunate thing because due to this, it is very difficult to recognize

when you have contracted a normal seasonal flu and when you have contracted the New Corona Virus

When there are extreme cases of Corona Virus, then one may contract pneumonia too

But generally, the doctors have to perform a laboratory test to recognize whether it is a normal flu or

the New Corona Virus

The incubation period of the Novel Corona Virus is between 2-11 days

that is, if you are infected, it might take 11 days for the symptoms to show up

This basically means that in the last two weeks

if you haven't been to China or haven't been in touch with a Chinese person

and despite that you're showing these symptoms, then you have no cause to worry

This means that you have not contracted the Novel Corona Virus

How dangerous is this virus, actually?

How fatal is it for you?

In order to know this, I'd like to show you some facts

The total number of infected people until now are 24,579

Out of these, around 494 people have died

And 955 people have recovered after becoming infected

So looking at the total number infected people and the total number of deaths as a proportion,

then this comes out to be approximately 2%

This 2% is the mortality rate

Mortality rate means that incase you contract the infection or the Novel Corona Virus,

then what are the chances that you are going to die because of it?

2% means that there is a 98% chance that you are not going to die because of it

but you will eventually recover

In fact, upon studying the cases until now, it has been found out that

most of the people that died due to the Novel corona Virus

already had weak immune systems due to some other reasons

Most of these people were elderly and old

or their immune system was already weak beforehand for example, a heart disease or any other problem

An interesting thing about viruses is that the virus that spreads more easily and is more contagious

in general, its mortality rate is automatically less

And the Viruses that have a higher mortality rate are less contagious

For example, ebola

The mortality rate of Ebola was 70%

That is if you contract Ebola, then there are 70% chances that you are going to die because of that

But only 3,000 cases were reported. So Ebola was not that contagious

On the other hand, take the example of common cold or chicken pox

Both of them are highly contagious

Both chicken pox and common cold spread very easily

But in case you contract it, then the mortality rate of common cold is 0.01%

So all of this can be represented on a graph

The mortality rate is plotted on the Y axis

and the contagiousness, that is, how easily it can spread is plotted on the x axis

Mortality rate is measured in percentage

and there is a number to measure contagiousness

This number means that one infected person will infect how many other people on an average

For example, look at the contagiousness number of common cold- it is 6

This means that if a person contracts common cold,

then on average, he will infect 6 more people

This is very high contagiousness

The contagiousness of chicken pox is even more- around 8.5

As for other examples, consider Swine flu. Its contagiousness and mortality rate both are very low

It has a contagiousness of a mere 1.5

and it has a mortality rate of a mere 0.2%

Consider rabies. Rabies does not spread very easily but in case you contract it,

and you do not get it treated in time,

then there are almost 100% chances that you might die because of this infection

The SARS of 2003 had a mortality rate of 10%

So it is being estimated that the mortality rate of the Novel Corona Virus will amount to around 2%

but enough data is not available in order to measure how contagious it is

So we cannot exactly say where it will be placed on the graph

A range has been designated that the Novel Corona Virus will fall within it

So by this, we can conclude that in comparison to the SARS, Ebola and MERS, the Novel Corona Virus

is less deadly because it mortality rate is lesser than all of these

but it might be more contagious than them

Because when SARS had become widespread,

then it had infected around 8000 people globally within 8 months

and this Novel Corona Virus has already infected 24-25,000 people-

three times more people have been infected

And unfortunately, a lower mortality rate does not mean that fewer people are going to die in total

For example, take the example of Spanish Flu

which happened in 1918-20, if you have read it in the history books

The mortality rate of this Spanish flu was merely 10%

But it became so contagious worldwide, or maybe the era that time was such that

it spread so easily that 500 million people got infected because of this Spanish flu

And since its mortality rate was 10%, upto 50 million people died because of this flu

despite its mortality rate being so low

The infection of the Novel Corona Virus spreads the same way that cough and cold spreads amongst people

If someone coughs or sneezes

then the bodily fluids of the infected person reach the other people

and they too, get infected

So the ways of prevention are the same as that of a common cold

World Health Organization recommends washing hands at the right time

and washing hands very frequently in the proper manner

Whenever you cough or sneeze, then make use of tissue papers and handkerchiefs

If they are not available, then you can make use of your elbow like this

so that the body droplets do not disperse wide and infect the rest of the people

This is valid for everything, by the way, not only for Corona Virus

If you have a cough or a cold or any other form of Corona Virus, then do not spread it to others

Surprisingly, the World Health Organization has said that masks are not very effective

in protecting you from the infection

So do not think that whenever you can go to a public place wearing a mask, then you would feel safe

It would not make much of a difference

They say that washing hands with soap is more effective in comparison to masks

And masks should be used only by those that are infected themselves

so that they do not spread their bodily fluids to others

So if you are suspected to be infected, then it would be proper to use a mask

A lot of treatment and cures have gone viral on social media to treat the Corona Virus

For example, a Whatsapp forward reads

Good news! Wuhan's Corona Virus can be cured by one bowl of freshly boiled garlic water

Old Chinese doctor has proven its efficiency. Many patients have also proven this to be effective

Consume garlic and treat your Corona Virus

Some state that consuming bleach will treat the Corona Virus

Some say that consuming organic oil will cure it

Our own government says that the Corona Virus can get cured by homeopathy and Ayurveda

A Hindu Mahasabha President says that consumption of Gaumutra and cowdung can cure the Corona Virus

The truth remains that all of these people are talking rubbish

Nobody has any cure available with them

As of now, no vaccine exists against the Corona Virus

Neither does any treatment exist

Only if your immune system is strong, then it can fight it and you can recover from it

The vaccine is currently under development

It has been estimated that it might take around an year to introduce its vaccine

When SARS broke out in 2002-03, then it took 20 months to introduce its vaccine

The governments across the world are working towards the containing the spread of this virus

And I feel that they have been successful to a large extent

because 99% of the cases of infection that we have seen, all of them are concentrated in China

And 90% of the cases in China too, are concentrated within just one region- Wuhan

China had quarantined the entire region to prevent anyone from going in or going out

50 million people have been put in quarantine

And the rest of the world are trying to do the same

For example, Australia and Singapore have banned Chinese tourists

Russia, Mongolia and Nepal have sealed their borders with China

So in my opinion, the people living outside of China have nothing to worry about

Maintain precautions but do not panic

There has been so much of fear mongering by the media

an atmosphere of panic is being created almost as if the new virus is akin to a zombie apocalypse

It is not that big of a deal like I have shown you in this video

Presently, all of these things are concentrated within China

Economically, it might have a deleterious effect not only on China but also the world economy

It has been estimated that China might face a loss of upto 60 billion dollars due to this Novel Corona Virus

and the GDP growth rate might diminish by 1.5%

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We will meet in the next video

Thank You