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  • welcome to another MedCram lecture we're talking about czars to Cove or

  • Cove at 19 this update is for February 24 2020 a lot has happened over the

  • weekend and we've got a lot of stuff to talk about not the least of which is

  • Italy and South Korea but before I get to that I just wanted to go over where I

  • think med cram fits into this whole thing because there's a lot of news

  • sources out there you can read a lot of things on the internet about a lot of

  • aspects of the coronavirus and what I think a niche that make cram serves and

  • will continue to do this is to take the medical aspect of this and try to

  • explain it as best as we can because I think that's our wheelhouse where did

  • this coronavirus come from what are the true numbers what are the political

  • ideological aspects of it we try to stay away from that kind of stick to the

  • medical information that's coming out and try to explain it to you as best as

  • possible so with that being said here's the map from the johns hopkins site we

  • can see here that the total confirmed cases are increasing although not as

  • fast as they were total deaths are also increasing but not as fast as they were

  • totally recovered seem also to be kind of leveling off there is a site here in

  • the link where it says Lancet article and I want to go to that to show you

  • what they are doing over there at The Lancet they have a number of articles

  • they also have their own graphs where they compare the whu-oh the chinese CDC

  • and the Johns Hopkins University site but one of the things I want you to look

  • at is this related hub and that is the kovat 19 Resource Center that's at the

  • bottom this is where you can get updates on interesting articles that are

  • published across the lancets platform The Lancet of course being a very

  • reputable Medical Journal the other place that I wanted you to look was this

  • site from nucleus wealth they have a lot of different graphs on this site and

  • we'll leave a link in the description below they've got for instance some

  • graphs that I haven't seen before which shows here the change in cases based on

  • the season so the winter countries obviously are having an increase where

  • the summer countries are not of course there may be some confounders here

  • because a lot of the countries that are having an increase happened to me next

  • to China and of course there in the northern hemisphere and so they're

  • currently in winter but you can see here a number of the different graphs we've

  • got the doubling time which I had not seen before and then one of the graphs

  • that I thought was really interesting was total deaths of course but then this

  • issue that's been brought up all throughout the last month or so which is

  • the mortality rate using lag periods and so what they did on this graph is that

  • if you were to delay for days what does mortality look like it is

  • doing in the rest of China a delay of eight days a delay of 12 days you can

  • see they're all kind of leveling out here as time goes along just below 1%

  • for the mortality or the case fatality rate however in Hubei Province doing the

  • same kind of analysis you can see that we're coming up with a different

  • mortality rate if you look at these numbers based on this if you looked at

  • world excluding China and Iran the mortality rate using different lag

  • periods you can see we're back to around 2 to 3 percent and of course there's

  • more analysis and just like any good site they gave their data sources so I

  • thought this was a good site to add to your armamentarium for those of you who

  • are liking to look at the kovat 19 statistics course our favorite one that

  • we always go to is the world ometer which gives us the updated coronavirus

  • cases deaths and recovered our active cases closed cases another reason why I

  • like to use this site is because if you scroll down below all of the country

  • specific data you will see an update and this is very helpful so let's go through

  • this of course the Italy outbreak being the biggest over the weekend

  • there's 78 new cases as of today and one new death in Italy this was a woman

  • being treated for cancer there's four new cases new Voter Gamow the two new

  • cases in Venice and a seventy year old male in Valtellina and a couple in Turin

  • who visited their child at the Regina margarita Hospital yesterday those are

  • all new cases we've got 114 cases in Lombardy 25 cases in Veneto and you can

  • see the other ones trailing up at least 26 patients

  • are in critical condition in the intensive care unit and if you look at

  • that number 26 and divide it by the number of cases that are there which is

  • quite substantial it is coming out to a little bit more than we would expect to

  • see in the intensive care unit we have 11 towns 50,000 people placed in

  • lockdown and we have the Armed Forces and the police forces that have been

  • mobilized to form an insurmountable health belt as they call it and they're

  • going to be sentencing people if they break that roadblock to up to three

  • months in prison so they're very serious one of the things that's been

  • interesting to see is how different countries deal with this issue and some

  • of the quotes as well there is a Walter Ricci Rd of the w-h-o adding that within

  • two weeks we will know if we're facing an epidemic and that we should avoid

  • crowded places over the next two weeks so what they have done is they're movie

  • theaters are closed more than forty football matches have been postponed

  • there are games there are fashion shows all of which have been cancelled if we

  • look down here to South Korea and this is as of February 23rd 166 new cases

  • four new deaths in South Korea and they have risen the alert level to maximum

  • and you can see what the cases have done in the total cases from 31 to 58 now up

  • to 602 and the numbers are still rolling in at this point wanted to talk to you

  • about this JAMA article that was published on the 21st of February now

  • the issue has been containing this virus and one of the ways to contain the virus

  • is to be able to screen for it using symptoms this is a disconcerting article

  • showing a presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of Cova 19 which is the

  • disease caused by the SARS to cover iris what they did is they looked at a

  • familial cluster of about five patients with fever and respiratory symptoms who

  • are admitted to the fifths People's Hospital of an yang China and one

  • asymptomatic family member then here's the key and it showed that this

  • asymptomatic carrier a twenty old woman was living with and had close proximity

  • to five relatives and they visited another

  • it allows relative and you can see this in the figure there was no report of

  • covin 19 at the hospital this number one patient was isolated and observed and as

  • of February 11 she had no elevated temperature no self reported fever no GI

  • symptoms or respiratory symptoms including cough or sore throat and yet

  • on january 26 she was positive on testing for real-time polymerase chain

  • reaction or RT - PC R she then once again tested negative

  • thereafter despite this - patients 2 through 6 developed Kovan 19 the disease

  • forward women in ages from 42 to 57 and none of the patients had visited Wuhan

  • in other words they believed that they got it through her they did develop

  • fever and respiratory symptoms between January 23rd and January 26 they were

  • admitted to the hospital on the same day all of them had rt-pcr tests for kovat

  • 19 within one day when they looked at these patients symptomatically they had

  • ground-glass opacities which is the finding on chest CT and they all had

  • reduced lymphocyte counts which is compatible with kovat 19 so their

  • analysis says that on the previous study reported an asymptomatic ten-year-old

  • boy with Kovan 19 infection but he had abnormalities on his chest CT if the

  • findings in this report have presumed transmission by an asymptomatic carrier

  • are replicated the prevention of kovat 19 infection would prove challenging the

  • mechanism by which asymptomatic carriers could acquire and transmit the corona

  • virus that causes kovin 19 requires further study so it's looking as though

  • it's going to be difficult just based on fever symptoms and self-quarantine to be

  • able to prevent this from spreading based on this article now we don't know

  • exactly how often asymptomatic people are carrying this virus and able to

  • spread it but we do know that it is possible based on this article at least

  • one of the things that we're going to be talking about coming up in future

  • updates as we mentioned before is we're gonna talk about the molecular biology

  • of this new stars to cover iris I haven't seen much out there in terms of

  • describing what actually happened I'm used to having these videos made for

  • people in the medical field people who have an understanding of biology people

  • understand what DNA is and RNA and polypeptides and things of that nature

  • but I realized that we have probably a lot of people out there that don't

  • really understand the molecular biology of the cell and what DNA polymerase is

  • and RNA polymerase and what transfer RNA is and what's the difference between

  • translation and codons and transcription so I'm going to put a link in the

  • description below of a nice youtube video that describes a little bit about

  • that of course I'm not gonna be leaving you out in the cold so I will do a

  • little bit of description and I will upload a video on a primer for

  • understanding the terminology that we're gonna use because what I'd like to do is

  • go through and really step-by-step show you what happens when the Czar's to

  • cover iris infects one of your cells and exactly how does that work and how is

  • that different from the other viruses that were used to including HIV so we

  • will be helping out with that understanding thank you for joining us

welcome to another MedCram lecture we're talking about czars to Cove or

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B1 中級 新型コロナウイルス 新型肺炎 COVID-19

コロナウイルス疫学アップデート24:イタリアでの感染、伝播性、COVID-19の症状 (Coronavirus Epidemic Update 24: Infections in Italy, Transmissibility, COVID-19 Symptoms)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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