字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Technological progress has radically changed production methods. When I worked as a sound engineer in the sixties this is how much equipment you needed in a recording studio. Today, the studio is in here! And because now everbody can be their own sound engineer I and many others have had to retrain to find new work. We have seen similar transformations in many different areas. Today production methods have changed dramatically. On the slides you will see : 3D printers which are already being used to print construction materials for houses. We've all heard about the “uberization” of the economy for example with Airbnb. Self-service checkouts where customers replace cashiers in shops. Self-driving cars like Teslas which you may even be able to summon with your phone The robot from Boston Dynamics which mimics human behaviour particularly in the way it moves and gets up when it falls. So we are now in the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. What is different compared to the other industrial revolutions? Before, when jobs became obsolete because of technological progress other jobs were created. But before, machines just replaced our arms and legs today machines also replace our brains. So the jobs under threat today are not only manual ones but also highly qualified ones such as accountants, analysts, journalists, etc. Serious studies, e.g. at Oxford University suggest that within 20 years 47% of today's jobs will disappear and few new jobs will be created. This means that only few people with very specific skills and qualifications will be in paid, formal work. For example Kodak used to employ 145,000 workers to produce 200 billion pictures. Today Instagram produces twice as many images with 13 employees. Consequently the overall payroll is shrinking and at the same time the dividends are increasing as investors (the owners of the means of production) reap the benefits of technological progress. These advances in technology as my co-speaker Guy Standing said are the result of discoveries and innovations made by our ancestors. They worked to make our life easier. However they did not predict that life would only be only easier for people who own the fruits of these technologies i.e. the owners of the means of production. Why does this have a profound effect on the economy? Because there is downward pressure on employment and wages which reduces the purchasing power of the middle classes essentially the bulk of the formal workforce. This then reduces consumption and produces a deflation process which domestic banks are trying to fight and finally the loop is closed by reduced demand. Therefore, advances in technology contribute to the economic crisis. Another important aspect is that robots do not get paid they work around the clock but without contributing to social security and they are not unionized. The fact that robots do not contribute to social security threatens the whole social insurance system described just now by my colleague to my right. Social insurance is threatened by because it is primarily based on funding by social security contributions and taxes paid by employees in formal work. We are at a turning point. We have to find another way to fund our social security system. I will now run through the main principles of a UBI which is basically a monthly pension. Whether a UBI should provide enough money to live off is open for debate. The initiative for a Swiss popular vote on a UBI specifies that it should. However there are other projects for example in Finland where the UBI is not intended to provide enough money to live off at least initially. A UBI is paid to each individual for their whole life. Regardless of whether the person is wealthy or well-paid and without requiring anything in return. This is very different to the current social security system. There are several UBI models some with left-wing support others backed by the right wing. This is perhaps because the principle behind UBI is in itself neutral but implementation is political. Especially how much should be paid how it will be funded and what social benefits it will replace. Basic income is currently a trending topic worldwide with many pilot schemes in different places. The picture shows Guy Standing at the Indian pilot scheme. I myself was invited last month to a three-day seminar at the Mexican senate to consider introducing a UBI there. They decided on a concrete resolution to examine the different options and find the right match for their social and economic conditions. The difference between a social security system and a UBI is quite clear. A UBI is an economic base from which one can then begin to work. People can choose what kind of life they want: working more to have more money doing volunteer work for less money doing creative work taking care of the family. The current social security system which is targeted and conditional is problematic in many ways some of which have been mentioned by my co-speaker Patricia Schultz. It particularly disadvantages women because it is based on the idea of having a full-time job for life. For example unemployment benefits are not granted to those who work less than 50% which is often the case for women. A break in contributions of more than 18 months means a loss of benefits. Women are also disadvantaged by the pension system. But there are other issues too. People on benefits can be discouraged from taking up paid work if it provides less income than social security payments. This is particularly true for low-paid workers with dependent family members for whom they receive additional benefits, who are often women. [I am going to move faster, because time is running out] The government often argues that Article 12 of the Federal Constitution guarantees a life with dignity for the entire population and that this is provided for by our social security system. However to be eligible for social assistance citizens have to give up Article 13 which guarantees respect for privacy. Because social assistance is conditional inspectors may come into beneficiaries' homes at any time to inspect the beds, the number of toothbrushes and also their bank accounts. The UBI also raises the question of motivation to work. This image shows the situation before and after a UBI. In the current situation, the main motivation to work is to make a living. However, there are many other reasons to work which have been highlighted by studies of retired or wealthy populations. Other reasons to work emerge such as the desire to live an active life helping others and personal fulfilment. Does a UBI mean that we will stop working? In my case, definitely not, the proof is that I am here today as a volunteer. The initiative for a Swiss popular vote on the introduction of a UBI was launched in April 2012. The proposed wording of the law is interesting in particular the second sentence which says that the UBI is granted to everyone and should be sufficient to live in dignity and participate in public life. This means that the aim of the referendum is to have a enough UBI to refuse a job. It has been fascinating to see how much media coverage the initiative has received worldwide. To come to the financing: For a basic monthly income at CHF 2,500 for adults and CHF 625 for children the Federal Council says that CHF 55 billion could be saved on social benefits Economie Suisse suggests the savings are higher between CHF 60 and 70 billion. Our estimates are of approximately CHF 62 billion leaving a funding gap of CHF 18 billion. But apart from talking about the cost of a UBI, it also important to consider the returns it will bring. Introducing a UBI will allow people to undertake activities or take up paid work easier than today which will greatly improve economic productivity. From our point of view, UBI is not a cost but would bring real returns to the Swiss economy. In the current Swiss political debate UBI would be funded from existing revenues as you see in the slide to the right. However, we could also fund a UBI from additional sources of income. There is a proposal to introduce a micro tax on all financial and economic transactions. These transactions came to a total of CHF 100,000 billion in 2012. A micro tax at just 0.2% of this total would generate the entire CHF 200 billion needed to fund the UBI. Financing the UBI is not really the problem. The issue is making political choices about how to do it. The Swiss Federal Council and opponents of the UBI initiative simply say that it is problematic in many ways in particular the financing. I'd also like to point out that social progress for example the abolition of slavery in the USA has always faced the argument that it was bad for the economy including granting women the vote (in Switzerland in 1971). To conclude, in our opinion the government has not really taken the initiative seriously. The Swiss Federal Council has taken a very superficial approach to the popular vote and is suggesting a financing method that will make implementation impossible. They are suggesting taxing the first CHF 2,500 which would be a disaster for the economy. Everybody on the left and the right knows that this funding proposal will never be adopted. To conclude, I would simply remind you that we will vote on the principle of a UBI so voting “yes” will give the government a mandate to study the best way to implement a UBI. The proposal does not set a time limit on implementation so it can be put in place as the government sees fit. I think we can say very objectively that a UBI will be implemented if we reach a political consensus on how to set it up and also if there is enough economic and social pressure to push the parliament to take action. There are referendum materials by the door for you to take and some stickers. Thank you very much.