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  • In the price to earnings conundrum video we encountered

  • a situation where two different entrepreneurs bought

  • an identical asset, in this case it was a pizza parlor or

  • a pizzeria, but they each financed it

  • in a different way.

  • This guy was a little bit more conservative.

  • He paid for it outright.

  • The entire asset was his equity.

  • He had no debt.

  • While this guy, he borrowed some money and he even had

  • some non-operating assets.

  • So he levered up.

  • For every $1 he put in he borrowed $10 from the bank in

  • order to buy more assets that he actually

  • brought to the table.

  • And we saw when you did their financial statements-- their

  • revenue, cost of goods-- everything up to the operating

  • profit line was the same.

  • And that makes sense because, if you remember the first

  • introduction to income statement video, operating

  • profit is really indicative of what the operating assets are

  • generating.

  • So in this case it's what this purple area right here is

  • generating.

  • You could also consider that the enterprise.

  • What the enterprise is generating.

  • And everything below the operating line, everything

  • below the operating profit line, is either coming from

  • non-operating assets, that would the case of

  • non-operating income.

  • And the entrepreneur on the right had some of that.

  • He had some of this non-operating income, $2,000

  • per year in that case.

  • While this guy didn't have any.

  • And then you have expenses associated

  • with interest. Right?

  • In this case this entrepreneur had 5% of

  • $100,000, so $5,000 a year.

  • And then when you have these differences in capital

  • structure it changes what your net income is.

  • And they have slightly different net income numbers.

  • But what we saw is when we applied the same price to

  • earnings ratio, and they had the same share counts-- I

  • didn't change too many variables here I just really

  • changed how they paid for the asset.

  • But when you apply the same price to earnings ratio to

  • both earning streams, to both companies, you got something

  • that was reasonably unintuitive.

  • And there's no trick here really.

  • Because it's not crazy to assign the same price to

  • earnings ratio.

  • And if you try it out, if you grow this guy's revenue a

  • little bit, if you actually grow both of their revenues by

  • the same amount or both of their gross profits by the

  • same amount or if you grow both of their operating

  • profits by the same amount, you're actually going to see

  • that this guy's earnings per share is growing faster.

  • So given that someone might say, oh, because of the

  • leverage maybe I'm willing to pay even a higher multiple.

  • So it's not crazy to pay the same multiple for both of

  • these guys.

  • But we saw at the end of the last video, when you apply,

  • let's say, a 10 multiple, or really any multiple to both of

  • these earning streams, you get a situation that at first

  • doesn't look crazy.

  • OK, the market cap of this guy is $210,000 if you apply a 10

  • multiple to their earnings stream, while the market cap

  • of this guy is $189,000 if you apply a 10 multiple to their

  • earning stream.

  • Right?

  • 10 times 18.9 thousand is 189,000.

  • 10 times 21 thousand is 210,000.

  • But what was the conundrum, what really got us thinking,

  • was how can this whole equity stream right here, or this

  • equity, or this earnings stream be, worth 210 and this

  • one be worth 189 when this guy only put $10,000 in initially

  • and this guy put $100,000?

  • He put in 10 times as much.

  • And so when you're paying $210,000 for this asset, for

  • this equity, you are essentially saying that this

  • asset is worth $210,000.

  • But if you're saying that this equity is worth $189,000,

  • right, that's what the market cap is.

  • It's the value of the equity.

  • Then you're implicitly saying that this asset, that all of

  • these assets are worth the value of this market

  • capitalization plus this debt, right?

  • So that's $289,000.

  • And then if you wanted the value of this operating asset

  • you would subtract out this much right here, the cash.

  • So you got something like $279,000.

  • So when you apply the same price to earnings to to these

  • similar businesses you've actually got a situation where

  • you're overpaying for this asset relative to this one,

  • even though they're identical.

  • So that left us with a question: what do we do?

  • What can we use other than a price to earnings ratio?

  • And that's what this video is for.

  • So the short answer is, one, you do have to

  • use something different.

  • Price to earnings ratio is a good a quick way of comparing

  • two companies relative to their growth or

  • relative to an industry.

  • But it does lose a lot of information relative to how

  • the companies are capitalized.

  • You saw in the last video that how you're capitalized, and

  • when I say capitalized I mean how do you

  • pay for your assets.

  • If you have a lot of debt versus a lot of equity, what

  • actually happens on the earnings line

  • is very, very different.

  • And so you lose all of that information.

  • And so if you want to capture that information, when you

  • look at the price of a stock you have to figure out what

  • you're actually paying for the enterprise of the company, the

  • enterprise value of the company.

  • So when I talk about the enterprise, or the enterprise

  • value, I'm talking about the operating assets.

  • It gets a little bit more complicated if you're talking

  • about a financial company like a bank or

  • an insurance company.

  • But if we're talking about a widget factory, the enterprise

  • is essentially the assets.

  • The enterprise value is the asset value of the assets that

  • allow the company to do business.

  • So whatever factories-- well, in this case it's a pizzeria,

  • so the ovens, the building, the places, where people

  • actually eat their food, and even the cash that's necessary

  • to operate the business.

  • The enterprise value shouldn't incorporate the cash that's

  • surplus, that's not necessary to operate the business.

  • So that begs the question, how do you calculate the

  • enterprise value?

  • So you could go backwards and you say, OK, for a given price

  • how much am I paying for an enterprise value?

  • So let's say that this stock-- let's say that Company A or

  • this one, let's say the stock right now is trading at $20.

  • So this is the current price that you could buy it at.

  • So it's the asking price in the market is at $20.

  • While this one is at, let's say it's at $10.

  • It's at $10.

  • So at first glance you might just do a quick price to

  • earnings ratio.

  • And you'll say, OK, for $20 I'm getting $2.10 earnings per

  • year, assuming it's not growing or something.

  • So my price to earnings is approximately, I don't know

  • have my calculator in front of me, but $20 divided by $2.10

  • is going to be 9 point something, something.

  • Right?

  • While this guy, for $10, I am getting $1.89 of

  • earnings per year.

  • So what's 100 divided by 18?

  • It's 5 or 6 times.

  • It's going to be 5 point something.

  • 6 times 18 is 60 plus -- Yeah it's going to be 5 point

  • something, something.

  • So when you superficially just look at this you're going to

  • say, wow, this is a cheaper price to earnings ratio, maybe

  • I should buy that.

  • But what we saw in the last video is that price to

  • earnings isn't a good relative valuation metric when two

  • different companies are capitalized very differently.

  • So what you want to do is instead back out what these

  • prices imply about the enterprise value.

  • So what does $20 imply about the enterprise value and what

  • does $10 imply.

  • And how do you do that?

  • Well first you say what is the market cap?

  • Market cap.

  • So you take the price times the number of shares.

  • If you remember, we had 10,000 shares.

  • So in this case $20 times 10,000 shares implies a

  • $200,000 market cap.

  • In this case we have $10 times 10,000 shares so it implies a

  • $100,000 market cap.

  • Now remember, the market cap is just what's left over.

  • So let me redraw those two diagrams because I feel like

  • I'm--

  • So for this entrepreneur you have the assets

  • and there's no debt.

  • So the assets are kind of completely

  • represented by the equity.

  • So if the market cap is $200,000 you're essentially

  • saying that these assets, these operating assets, are

  • worth $200,000.

  • So in this case, at a price of $20, we know that the

  • enterprise value, the market enterprise value, so what the

  • market is saying the enterprise is worth, the

  • operating assets are worth, is $200,000.

  • Now, in this case, remember the market is saying that the

  • equity is worth $100,000.

  • Let me draw that.

  • The market is saying that the equity is worth $100,000.

  • But of course this company has a lot of debt.

  • It has another $100,000 of debt.

  • Actually let me draw this a little bit different.

  • All right.

  • So in this situation the market is saying that its

  • market cap is $100,000.

  • So just to be proportional let me draw it like that.

  • Not really use that one.

  • So $100,000, this is the equity or the market

  • capitalization or the market value of the equity.

  • That's what the market cap is.

  • So that's just the price times the number of shares.

  • And then it has debt.

  • If I remember correctly it has $100,000 in debt.

  • We take $100,000 in debt.

  • $100,000.

  • And so what is it saying about the assets?

  • So the equity plus the debt, or the

  • liabilities, is $200,000.

  • So it's saying all of the assets are worth $200,000.

  • This is all of the assets, $200,000.

  • But what we need to do, we want to figure out the value

  • of the enterprise.

  • Not just all of the assets.

  • So if we remember there was some of the assets that were

  • actually operational and some were non-operational.

  • So we had $10,000 of cash right there.

  • So we have $10,000 of cash.

  • So when this stock is trading at $10 it implies a market

  • capitalization of $100,000.

  • It implies that the liabilities

  • plus equity is $200,000.

  • So all of the assets are $200,000.

  • But if we were to subtract out the cash or the non-operating

  • assets, what's not necessary to operate the business, we

  • get $190,000 of enterprise value.

  • So in this case we're saying that the

  • enterprise value is $190,000.

  • So in this case, when you look at the price to earnings

  • you're like, wow, this is half as expensive as that.

  • This is great deal, let me buy it.

  • And I just happened to make up the numbers so even when I did

  • the enterprise value it's only 5% cheaper.

  • Here it looks 50% cheaper.

  • Here it looks 5% cheaper.

  • And so it might be a little unintuitive.

  • To figure out the enterprise value you take, and this will

  • be the formula you see in a lot of books.

  • Enterprise value is equal to market cap

  • plus debt minus cash.

  • And you might be like, when I'm trying to value something

  • why should I add debt back?

  • Debt is a negative thing.

  • Shouldn't debt make my enterprise worth less?

  • And why am I subtracting cash?

  • Because cash is a positive thing, shouldn't that make my

  • enterprise value more?

  • And the reason why, first, you subtract cash is, and it

  • really should be just cash that is not associated with

  • the enterprise.

  • And you'll see a lot of people do it in different ways.

  • Some people subtract out all cash with the argument that

  • the company doesn't need to use any of it.

  • But the real idea behind it is to kind of capture the assets

  • that are actually generating the profits of the enterprise.

  • And the profits of the enterprise are

  • the operating profits.

  • And the reason why you add debt is, think

  • about it this way.

  • If you wanted to buy out this company.

  • Let's say from this company you wanted to buy his assets

  • at the market price.

  • How would you do it?

  • You would have to pay, what?

  • You would have to maybe get $200,000.

  • If you got $200,000 you could buy these guys off.

  • You could pay them $100,000 and own that.

  • And then you could buy the bank out

  • and pay them $100,000.

  • So if you paid $200,000, you would own all of this.

  • Right?

  • This would all be your equity.

  • And then you would get $10,000 back if you know if you wanted

  • to take this cash, right?

  • So you would have essentially paid $200,000 which is the

  • market cap plus the debt.

  • That's what you would have to do to buy out both of those

  • stakeholders in the company.

  • And then you would get back the cash.

  • So you would have to pay net $190,000 to own this

  • enterprise.

  • And hopefully that makes a little bit more sense as why

  • the enterprise value is actually described this way.

  • Now the one thing you might say, OK, Sal, you figured out

  • how to calculate enterprise value from a share price.

  • But what if I want to go the other way around.

  • How do I figure out what a company's enterprise value

  • should be and then figure out what its share

  • price should be?

  • Well one metric, and there's two metrics.

  • The most common metric that's used is EBITDA.

  • EBITDA.

  • I won't cover that now because it's a new term for you, but

  • it means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation,

  • and amortization.

  • And people look at something called an enterprise value to

  • EBITDA ratio.

  • And I'll do that in the next video.

  • But what I like to do is just think about, OK, what are the

  • real earnings from the enterprise?

  • Well, that's the operating profit.

  • That's the operating profit, right?

  • And then you could apply a multiple to that based on what

  • other companies are trading at or how fast it's growing.

  • Let's say in this case we're saying they're both generating

  • $30,000 in operating profit per year.

  • Let's say that I want to apply a 5 multiple to

  • its operating profits.

  • So let's say I want to say that EV to operating profit,

  • which I frankly think is a better metric than EV to

  • EBITDA-- and I'll cover EBITDA in a future video-- let's say

  • that I think for this industry it should be 5.

  • Let me say it should be 6.

  • 6 times is a good multiple.

  • So in both those cases the operating profit was $30,000.

  • So that means that EV should be $30,000 times 6, which is

  • equal to $180,000.

  • Now for the first guy if the EV is $180,000, if I'm saying

  • that this thing right here, the market value, should be

  • $180,000, then I'm implying that the equity should be

  • worth $180,000.

  • And there are 10,000 shares.

  • So essentially I would take that EV and I would say, well,

  • all of that's equity, there's no cash there, there's no

  • debt, so all of this is equity.

  • So I would divide that by the shares.

  • I would say that the market cap for the first guy should

  • be $180,000.

  • So the per-share price, the price I'd be

  • willing to pay, is $18.

  • Because it had 10,000 shares.

  • $18.

  • Now let's take the second guy's situation.

  • We both agree in both situations their enterprise

  • value should be $180,000.

  • But in this guy's case, what are the assets?

  • The assets are the enterprise, $180,000 plus $10,000.

  • Plus $10,000, right?

  • This whole left-hand side is $190,000.

  • And then if you wanted to subtract out, figure out the

  • market cap, you would take this whole thing and then

  • subtract out the debt to get the market cap.

  • Right?

  • And then you would be left with this piece right here.

  • That right there, right?

  • You were just figuring out this whole distance,

  • subtracting out this distance.

  • So essentially you would say that the market cap is equal

  • to the enterprise value plus the cash minus the debt.

  • And it's good to draw those balance sheets if

  • you ever get confused.

  • Minus the debt.

  • So the market cap is equal to $190,000 minus $100,000 is

  • equal to $90,000.

  • And so if you divide that by 10,000 shares you'd say that

  • I'm willing to pay $9 per share.

  • So if you believe that the enterprise value of these

  • pizzerias are identical and that they're both worth

  • $180,000, you should be willing to pay

  • $18 for Company A.

  • And if you're completely equivalent to it, you should

  • pay $9 for Company B.

  • And now if you're a little bit more aggressive you might like

  • the leverage, you might like how Company B

  • is growing, et cetera.

  • Maybe you would like to pay a premium for that leverage or

  • maybe you wouldn't, because it also increases your risk.

  • Because you get leverage on the upside or on the downside.

  • But anyways I wanted to introduce you to value.

  • On the next video I'll introduce you to EBITDA.

In the price to earnings conundrum video we encountered

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企業価値 (Enterprise Value)

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    kellylin007 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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