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  • It is entirely up to us whether we

  • lift the world to new heights or let it fall

  • into a valley of disrepair.

  • As the world's only superpower, with an unmatched network

  • of alliances, America is often referred to

  • as the world's policeman.

  • But with the US police force now led by Sheriff Donald Trump,

  • its behaviour is increasingly unpredictable.

  • And, partly as a result, many of the world's rougher

  • neighbourhoods - from the Persian Gulf to the South China

  • Sea - are entering an uncertain and dangerous period.

  • Of course, all of these regional flashpoints

  • have deep local roots.

  • But it is also true that uncertainty

  • about American foreign policy is adding

  • to the sense of instability.

  • Take Iran.

  • For a while, the Trump administration

  • seemed to be pursuing a clear, if risky, policy.

  • It withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear accords

  • and seemed willing to risk a military confrontation.

  • But in June, Mr Trump abruptly cancelled an airstrike on Iran

  • that was intended to punish Iran for shooting down an American

  • drone.

  • And that's left a legacy of uncertainty,

  • and may have encouraged the Iranians to take further risks,

  • seizing three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

  • in recent weeks.

  • Then there is the dangerous flare-up in Kashmir.

  • This also took place against a backdrop of confusing signals

  • from the White House.

  • In July, Mr Trump suggested that India

  • had asked him to mediate with Pakistan

  • over Kashmir, a statement that was immediately

  • denied by India.

  • Shortly afterwards, Delhi moved to abolish

  • the autonomy of the province of Jammu and Kashmir.

  • And that move has led to a surge in tensions

  • with Pakistan, with America watching from the sidelines.

  • And then there is Hong Kong.

  • The government of China is hinting

  • heavily at military intervention there

  • to suppress months of demonstrations.

  • A traditional US administration would express support

  • for the aspirations of the people of Hong Kong

  • and urge restraint on Beijing.

  • But Mr Trump has instead called the protests "riots".

  • On other contentious issues in East Asia

  • where tensions are rising, US policy is also confusing.

  • If China ever followed through on its frequent threats

  • to invade Taiwan, would the US fight to defend the Taiwanese?

  • The Trump administration has sent very mixed signals,

  • warming up dramatically the Taiwanese

  • at the beginning of the administration,

  • and then backing off.

  • A similar confusion reigns over the South China Sea.

  • The US has stepped up naval patrols there

  • to push back against China.

  • But President Trump himself regularly

  • questions the value of America's key alliances in East Asia,

  • with Japan and South Korea.

  • And then there is North Korea.

  • Mr Trump clearly greatly values his friendship

  • with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

  • But North Korea's recently restarted missile tests

  • and has done very little to deliver on its promise

  • to get rid of nuclear weapons.

  • So how long can the Kim-Trump rapprochement last?

  • Finally, there's Europe.

  • When it comes to the long-running conflict

  • in Ukraine, the Trump administration

  • has toughened US policy by supplying

  • the Ukrainian government with weapons.

  • On the other hand, Mr Trump himself

  • seems to want a much closer relationship with Russia

  • and with President Putin.

  • And he sometimes questioned the value of the Nato alliance,

  • sending shivers down the spine of America's European allies.

  • So how would Mr Trump react if there was an intensification

  • of the conflict in Ukraine?

  • The fact is, nobody can be sure.

  • And that's also true for all those other regional conflicts.

  • An unpredictable America poses new dilemmas for other world

  • powers whose policies increasingly

  • are based on guesswork about how the Trump White

  • House may behave.

  • As a result, uncertainty that begins in the Oval Office

  • spreads around the world, creating

  • waves of instability and trouble spots thousands of miles

  • from Washington.

It is entirely up to us whether we

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ドナルド・トランプ氏の外交政策が世界に与える影響|FT (How Donald Trump's foreign policy affects the world | FT)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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