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  • Let June the 23rd go down in our history

  • as our independence day!

  • The British people have made a very

  • clear decision to take a different path.

  • No one really knows what the future is going to look like.

  • That's a defacement of the Union Jack!

  • You're not allowed to deface our flag

  • The shocking defeat of the Remain campaign,

  • "We've got our country back"

  • Caused the largest collapse of any major currency

  • in the history of the modern global financial system.

  • You could literally watch the pound

  • falling off the edge of a cliff.

  • The last time we saw falls of 8%,

  • I'm not sure we actually know.

  • People in the City of London were running

  • their own private polling to get information

  • about the vote while it was still happening.

  • It was probably one of the most lucrative nights

  • for the hedge fund industry that there had ever been.

  • My name's Gavin Finch, I'm a journalist at Bloomberg News.

  • I cover financial crime.

  • I'm Cam Simpson, I'm an investigations editor and writer.

  • My name is Kit Chellel,

  • I'm a reporter with Bloomberg,

  • and a writer for Businessweek.

  • And we're the three reporters

  • who broke the Brexit Big Short.

  • The Brexit night was a huge deal

  • for everyone in the country.

  • I watched it on television the same way most people did.

  • At 10pm voting stopped,

  • the polling stations closed.

  • All of the networks, all of the broadcasters

  • went immediately to their coverage.

  • In or out. It is too late to change your mind now.

  • So within the first minute they had a concession

  • from Nigel Farage who's the global face of Brexit.

  • This statement, as the polls close,

  • "It's been an extraordinary referendum campaign,"

  • this is Nigel Farage, "turnout looks to be

  • exceptionally high and looks like Remain will edge it."

  • I remember being shocked when I heard that just

  • because it was quite out of character for somebody like him

  • to concede before even the results had been counted.

  • Later that evening, Nigel Farage came

  • out again with a second concession speech,

  • and this one was a bit more specific than the first.

  • In this one he said that Remain had won,

  • and that he had heard this from some friends

  • in the City who run some pretty big private polling.

  • And that really shook me.

  • That was when I really realized, wait a minute.

  • The pollsters secretly working with hedge funds,

  • and Nigel had access to that information,

  • before any of the votes were even announced.

  • That was the moment when I realized

  • there's a lot here for us to look into.

  • First thing that I did was I created a very detailed

  • timeline of everything that happened politically,

  • everything that the pollsters were doing

  • and how the markets were reacting.

  • We had to try to identify the polling firms that were

  • involved and the hedge funds that they were working for.

  • So we had these two giant haystacks

  • that we kinda had to go searching for needles in.

  • We call this a mosaic investigation.

  • You gather all the pieces that you can

  • and you build a mosaic.

  • It's not a perfect picture, but it's a good picture

  • and one that you can kind of see what happened.

  • So we set out to interview as many

  • of the polling company employees,

  • former employees we started with

  • so as not to alert them to what we were doing.

  • And people were genuinely scared about the implications

  • of talking to a journalist about something like this.

  • We basically wanted to know who the buyers were

  • of these polls and who was conducting them and why.

  • Two polling firms that were notable in all this,

  • and that we highlighted in the story,

  • were YouGov which is one of the fastest-growing

  • polling companies in the world,

  • and a company called Survation.

  • Hello and welcome to Pop Idol.

  • In the early stages of both YouGov and Survation,

  • part of their market legend was built around the work

  • they did on U.K. talent competitions

  • like Pop Idol and X Factor.

  • They were really the first to build polling panels,

  • large groups of people that were available to them online

  • that they could tap with sort of the press of a button.

  • What was interesting about those polls

  • is it was an early indicator that you didn't need to know

  • the outcome of the actual competition.

  • You didn't need to know who won X Factor.

  • All you needed to know was who was gonna vote

  • for which candidate on which particular week in X Factor,

  • for you to then be able to make a market bet.

  • For the Brexit referendum, the senior members

  • of the polling industry told the press that it was not

  • possible to do a regular exit poll for this event.

  • Their normal methods, their normal data gathering

  • simply wouldn't work in this context.

  • What they didn't say was they were secretly

  • doing it for hedge funds at the same time,

  • who were trying to profit on the day

  • from the ultimate inside information

  • which was an exit poll showing how British people had voted.

  • Hedge funds are among the

  • most sophisticated players in financial markets.

  • What they're looking for is an edge,

  • some sort of insight that no one else has

  • that they can use to make their trading profits

  • and make money for their investors.

  • If the markets were deciding this referendum,

  • they would already have called it for Remain.

  • The pound is absolutely surging on the markets.

  • But the pound kept going to new highs

  • all throughout the evening.

  • If you're a hedge fund with access to information

  • showing you that actually, the opposite is likely to happen,

  • then you're in an incredibly good place

  • because you can play that market all the way up to the top.

  • Short selling is essentially a bet in a given direction.

  • The bet is that something will fall in value.

  • So the higher the pound is pushed up,

  • the more money you make when it

  • comes back down the other side.

  • Hedge funds and banks were willing to pay

  • comparatively enormous sums for the data

  • that polling firms were selling

  • because it allowed them to trade so profitably.

  • $100 million, $160 million,

  • $300 million in a single day.

  • When you're looking at the definition of insider trading,

  • insider trading is when you have access to

  • and trade on non-public, market-moving information.

  • In this country, exit polling data is

  • criminally defined as non-public information.

  • It is a crime to provide it to the public

  • or any section of the public before the polls are closed.

  • Polling companies were streaming it all day long

  • to their secret hedge fund clients

  • long before the polls were closed

  • so that they could trade on how people

  • were voting while they were still voting.

  • I hope and pray that my sense of this tonight is wrong.

  • Nigel Farage does seem to think

  • that the referendum is lost.

  • The results as they've been coming through this evening,

  • rather I think cast doubt, very early stage, on Mr. Farage's

  • rather low-key approach to what's going on.

  • So on the evening of the Brexit vote

  • after the markets had closed,

  • the concession speeches which Nigel gave

  • certainly did drive markets higher.

  • What we wanted to understand was

  • why did he concede that night?

  • What information did he have when he made those concessions?

  • What was going through his mind?

  • And whether he had access to some of the private polling

  • that we had identified that was being done by hedge funds?

  • So we really had to figure out a way to try

  • and get to the bottom of some of this

  • and we asked Nigel to come to lunch with us.

  • So we met Nigel Farge at Sweetings.

  • That was on Kit's suggestion

  • and it was a good one because it turns out that

  • Nigel was the third generation of his family

  • who had been eating at Sweetings.

  • It's kind of a strange venue.

  • It feels like stepping back into the 1950s.

  • We went in through the door with him.

  • And he immediately had a go at the

  • Spanish host and waiter for being Spanish.

  • I'd never eaten oysters before,

  • and Nigel Farage insisted that I try oysters.

  • About halfway through the meal,

  • our attention certainly changed to our story.

  • And we started asking him about his concession speeches.

  • If we'd just tried to call him up and ask those questions,

  • he would have hung up the phone.

  • Or if we knocked on his door, he would have shut the door.

  • But he felt, I think, compelled at that point

  • to give us full answers and we got them.

  • He certainly confirmed to us that in between

  • at least the beginning of the first concession

  • and the second concession, he had spoken to

  • Damien Lyons Lowe at Survation.

  • Damien Lyons Lowe is the founder and the CEO of Survation.

  • He built Survation's reputation in the early days

  • by polling in a way that drove UKIP's results higher.

  • That immediately brought him

  • to the attention of Nigel Farage

  • and he became Nigel Farage's pollster and UKIP's pollster,

  • and a very key political advisor for Nigel Farage.

  • Nigel knew from his favorite pollster

  • Leave had won before he gave at least

  • one of his concessions that really pushed the

  • market in the wrong direction that night.

  • So that was pretty critical for us to find out.

  • On the night that he gave the concession speech,

  • we do know there were others within UKIP and

  • within the Leave EU campaign who were very curious

  • within the Leave EU campaign who were very curious as to why he was going on air saying that Leave had lost

  • as to why he was going on air saying that Leave had lost

  • because they too had access to this private polling data

  • which showed that Leave had won.

  • The reasons he gave to us that he made those concessions

  • were simply that he had an attack of nerves, essentially.

  • When the moment came he got jittery,

  • and nervous, and lost faith.

  • He described being in a sort of black despair and a gloom

  • about what the outcome would be and losing hope.

  • What his personal dealings were

  • we're not sure of but we're still looking.

  • This whole process was us building

  • a very complicated jigsaw from scratch

  • and it perhaps wasn't right until the end

  • of the reporting process that we really saw

  • the whole picture in all its complexity.

  • The fallout was massive.

  • I mean we were really surprised that a story about

  • derivatives, essentially, was like

  • the third biggest trending thing on Twitter.

  • And it didn't take long for U.K. lawmakers

  • in both Houses of Parliament to start calling

  • for official inquiries into this.

  • It matters to different people for different reasons.

  • It matters if you're a trader because it matters

  • if someone else has an unfair advantage over you.

  • It matters if you care that a handful of people

  • can make huge sums of money by betting on political events

  • that shape our future and using information that would be

  • illegal for you or I to look at.

  • I think it matters if politicians are involved in this

  • and we should know more about it.

Let June the 23rd go down in our history

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ビッグBrexitショート (The Big Brexit Short)

  • 83 5
    Li-chieh Young に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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