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  • On November 25 2008, the U.S. economy was in deep trouble.

  • The Dow and the Nasdaq at 5 and a half year lows, the S&P at an 11 and a half year low.

  • GDP growth was contracting at the fastest rate in 50 years.

  • And the economy was losing hundreds of thousands of jobs each month.

  • So the Fed stepped in.

  • Nine years later, the economic picture looks very different.

  • So did the Fed do the right thing during the crisis?

  • So we did the right thing, I hope. We tried to do the right thing.

  • Ben Bernanke was at the helm of the Fed when it embarked

  • on a series of stimulus measures during the global financial crisis.

  • One of the most well-known things Bernanke's Fed did during the crisis was quantitative easing or QE.

  • For central banks like the Fed, QE is a little bit like an extra tank of gas for a car that's run out of fuel.

  • It's an extreme measure taken by central bankers to pump money back into the economy.

  • Generally when the economy is in bad shape the Fed lowers interest rates.

  • Lower interest rates encourage people or companies to borrow and spend their money instead of saving it.

  • But in November 2008, interest rates were already close to zero.

  • So the Fed launched a round of QE.

  • It bought trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities and government bonds.

  • When the Fed buys a lot of bonds, their prices go up and yields or interest rates go down.

  • You can see in this chart the Fed's balance sheet, the value of its assets,

  • ballooned from around $900 billion in 2008 to $4.5 trillion in 2015.

  • After its first QE announcement in November 2008, the Fed launched two more rounds of easing.

  • Nine years later, many, including those inside the Fed, argue the central bank's policies saved the economy

  • from a crisis worse than the Great Depression.

  • The U.S. economy has recovered more than 10 million jobs since November 2008.

  • And workers' wages are ticking up.

  • GDP growth has bounced back and held steady around 2%.

  • There's evidence QE lowered interest rates,

  • which helped ordinary people borrow cheaply for things like home mortgages.

  • Another sign QE worked is that other central banks, like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England,

  • followed the Fed's lead and launched their own easing programs.

  • But maybe the best sign that the Fed was successful was in its criticism.

  • The Fed has faced plenty of opposition for its actions, including from members of Congress.

  • They say the Fed intervened in markets to boost stock prices, making bubbles,

  • like the ones that helped create the crisis in the first place, more likely.

  • Stock markets have surged more than 200% to record highs.

  • Some contend those returns have mainly benefited the richest 1% who invest the most money in stocks.

  • Critics also say the Fed's low-interest rate policy put people with savings accounts at a disadvantage.

  • There's a lot less incentive to put money into savings when you earn very little interest on it.

  • Which is why some investors looked for other, riskier, places to put their money with bigger returns.

  • By keeping interest rates low, the Fed made it inexpensive

  • for the government to continue to borrow and spend.

  • U.S. public debt is now close to $20 trillion and some fear that bubble could burst

  • as the Fed steps out of the government market.

  • Some of the most vocal critics feared QE would cause runaway prices,

  • but inflation has stayed stubbornly low.

  • The Fed is now facing a new frontier, unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

  • It's a monumental task and it's one that other central banks will be watching closely.

  • The Fed doesn't really need that extra tank of gas anymore, the question is if the car can run without it.

  • In September 2017, the Fed announced its plan

  • to gradually wind down its balance sheet, basically to let the gas drip out.

  • It will do this by allowing its securities to mature without replacing them with new assets.

  • So for example,

  • if the Fed owned a 10-year Treasury note that bond would expire after, you guessed it, 10 years.

  • In the past the central bank would have reinvested, basically exchanged,

  • that Treasury before the 10-year mark. So its total holdings stayed constant.

  • Now, from October to December of this year, the Fed will let about $10 billion worth

  • of Treasury and mortgage bonds expire each month instead of exchanging them.

  • The Fed will slowly increase that monthly amount over the next year.

  • This whole process is a first for the Fed.

  • So did the Fed do the right thing during the Great Recession?

  • The answer might depend on how the global economy responds to its great unwinding.

  • Hey guys it's Elizabeth. Thanks so much for tuning in.

  • You can check out more of our videos over here.

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  • See you later!

  • See you later!

On November 25 2008, the U.S. economy was in deep trouble.

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FRBは正しいことをしたのか?| CNBCが解説 (Did the Fed do the right thing? | CNBC Explains)

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    kstmasa に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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