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[ Applause ]
>> Hello, and welcome.
I'm Emma Alberici the host of Lateline on the ABC,
and I'm here with Rutger Bregman
who has a fairly radical proposition.
[Laughs] So imagine everyone gets an income
and you don't have to work for it.
Awesome. [Laughs] And on top of that, if you do work,
you only have to work 15 hours a week.
And all the borders are open.
So you go wherever you like and no one questions you about it.
That's apparently Utopia for Realists.
I'm not sure that it's Utopia for politicians.
[ Laughter ]
So Utopia for Realists examines a different approach
to economics and to life and it challenges us all to think
in a way that modern politics wouldn't dare allow us to,
certainly not with Donald Trump in the White House wanting
to build walls, and Brexit and Guilders in the Netherlands
and Marine Lapen in France and Colin Hanson indeed here.
Rutger Bregman is a Dutch historian who started writing
about this idea of a basic wage back in 2013 long before many
of the concepts he espouses could ever be called mainstream.
The book is an international bestseller.
We're lucky to have him here.
Welcome. Join me in thanking him for being with us.
[ Applause ]
We're just going to be in conversation for this hour.
So I'll open it up and then I'll start the questions
and then we've got two microphones at either side here
and I'll invite you to participate
in the conversation shortly.
So I guess we'll start by just the simple question
of what is a universal basic income?
Give us the concept.
>> It's a very simple idea.
So everyone would receive a monthly grant that is enough
to pay for your basic needs, food, shelter, clothing.
So that's it.
Basic income is really a floor in the income distribution.
So it's not the same as communism.
It's not that everyone will receive the same amount
of money.
It's sort of you could see it as venture capital
for the people, right?
For the first time, everyone will have the freedom to decide
for themselves what to make of their lives.
And say for example everyone could say no to a job
that they don't want to do.
It's a very simple idea with quite radical implications.
>> But it is the same amount for everyone?
>> Yeah. Yeah, it's the basic income
that everyone would receive it.
Whether you're employed or unemployed, whether you're poor
or rich, man or woman, it doesn't matter.
Everyone gets it.
>> And how is it calculated?
And how on earth do countries afford such a thing?
>> A big part of my book is
about how would this work in practice?
That is the realist part of the title.
When I started researching this subject in 2013, it was --
well, in the first place it was completely forgotten
and what I could find about it was quite abstract.
So a lot of people thinking about what is human nature like,
what will you do with a basic income?
What would I do?
Will we all be lazy?
Et cetera.
And I was really interested in the practical question,
you know, has it ever been tried?
And it turns out there have been huge experiments,
forgotten experiments in the '70's in Canada and the US,
and since then in other places as well
where they actually tried it.
And it turns out that it works very well.
I even discovered, which is probably one
of the craziest stories in the book, is that Richard Nixon
of all people almost implemented a basic income
at the beginning of the '70's.
>> In fact, it was very popular.
I recall something like 90% of the population were in favour.
Republicans were on board generally en masse.
>> Yeah. At the end of the '60's, almost everyone in the US
and in Canada believed that some form
of basic income was going to be implemented.
So for example, John Kenneth Galbraith the left-wing
economist, he thought it was a great idea.
But also Milton Friedman, you know, the neo-liberal economist.
They actually agreed on the need for a guaranteed annual income.
Martin Luther King, he was in favour of it.
So it's not that Richard Nixon was suddenly a great philosopher
or utopian thinker.
He was just saying, "Oh, everyone wants it.
Let's do it then."
>> And it's interesting because back then also it united the
unions, the corporate sector, churches.
And I was just getting in my notes here,
because there's a quote from Nixon
where he says it was the most significant piece
of social legislation in our nation's history.
So why didn't it go ahead?
>> It's a pretty bizarre story full of crazy coincidences.
>> US politics?
[ Laughter ]
>> What happened in the first place is that, well,
everyone was in favour of basic income.
Richard Nixon had a proposal for a modest basic income and it got
through the House of Representatives twice.
But then it hit the Senate floor and Democrats started to think,
"Well, if this is going to be implemented anyway,
we want a higher basic income.
So let's just vote against it now
and then it will probably get higher in the second round."
Didn't really work out that way.
So it was basically killed by the left in the Senate.
The idea finally died in 1978 with an experiment in Seattle,
one of the big basic income experiences
with a lot of positive results.
So crime went down.
Kids performed much better in school.
You know, healthcare costs went down.
Basically it turned out that basic income was an investment
that pays for itself in the long run.
But there was one big problem.
The researchers found out that the divorce rate went up by 50%.
[ Laughter ]
So you can imagine at that point all the conservatives saying,
"We can't have basic income.
This will make women much too independent.
You know, we really don't want basic income."
>> Was there a connexion drawn
between the basic income and the divorce rate?
Was there an obvious kind of thread there?
>> Well, that's what they thought, yeah,
that it was really caused by a basic income.
That suddenly a woman can say, "I want to leave him.
Now I've got the freedom to do so."
The thing is that years later they found
out that it was a statistical mistake.
[ Laughter ]
So in reality the divorce rate did not go up at all.
But back then we were already in the era of Reagan and et cetera
and the idea was forgotten.
>> How is a basic income any different to welfare?
>> I think in a few important ways.
The most important way in which it's different is
that a basic income is absolutely unconditional.
What we've seen in the past 30 years is that the welfare state
from Holland to Australia has become more
and more conditional, actually quite humiliating for the people
who have to rely on it.
Time and time again, the assumption is
that government bureaucrats know better what the poor should do
with their lives than the poor themselves.
The idea behind basic income is that poverty is not a lack
of character but just a lack of cash.
And you can cure a lack of cash pretty easily with cash, right?
[ Laughter ]
>> How novel.
>> Yeah. Once you've seen the light,
it's very simple actually.
[ Laughter ]
But it actually works.
I think that's the most important thing.
My book is I believe a very evidence-based book.
And I believe that's also the way forward,
is to do more of those experiments.
And that's actually what's happening
around the world right now.
I mean, Finland is just doing a big experiment.
Canada has just announced one.
A lot of people in Silicon Valley are enthusiastic
about this idea.
So yeah, it's really spreading around the globe.
>> But isn't there also evidence that when people come
into money, they often squander it?
That when they haven't had to work for it,
they make poor decisions?
>> Well, if you watch a lot of reality television,
I can imagine that you'd believe that.
[ Laughter ]
One of the stories in my book is about a pretty crazy experience
that happened in London in 2009.
And this was a social organisation that worked
with chronically homeless men.
And there were about 13 of them
and they had tried pretty much everything at that point
and nothing really worked.
So it was simply time for something new.
And one of the people who worked there said, "You know,
why not try something really new?
Let's just give them money.
3,000 pounds, and let's see what happens."
Now even at that organisation,
obviously most people were quite sceptical,
but they were wasting money anyway,
so let's see what happens.
Now a year after the experience, 7 out of 13 of the men --
and some of them had been living on the streets for 40 years --
but 7 of the 13 of them had a roof above their head.
Two more had applied for housing
and all had made significant decisions
to invest in their lives.
So what did they use the money for?
One of them bought a dictionary.
Another bought [inaudible].
One of them took gardening classes.
It was pretty incredible to see
that the money really empowered the men
and for the first time they felt like society trusted them
to make their own decisions.
Now the twist comes at the end because that's when you look
at the financial side of the story.
You could say, "Well, we've got to do this because we've got
to pity the poor or pity the homeless.
It's the moral thing to do."
But it actually also makes financial sense.
The project in total cost 50,000 pounds.
That's about seven times less
than what they would normally spend on these homeless men.
So even The Economist, you know, nota very utopian,
left-wing magazine, right?
Even they wrote, "The best way to spend money
on the homeless might be just to give it to them."
And to be honest, I think that is almost always the case.
That if we want to help the poor,
just solve the problem, you know.
Don't try to manage the symptoms, but solve the problem.
And the problem is the lack of cash.
That's it.
>> There's a talk in your TED Talk about the other approaches
of people thinking they know what's best
and buying certain things for them
and giving poor kids teddy bears in countries and so on.
>> Yeah.
>> Things they don't need.
>> When I gave the TED Talk, I had one line in my talk.
I said, you know, we should get rid of the vast industry
of bureaucratic paternalists and simply hand over their salaries
to the poor they're supposed to help.
And the TED audience was really like clapping and laughing
and I was a big confused because I'm talking about you guys.
[ Laughter ]
>> So you mentioned this right at the outset,
that one of the instincts people have is,
"Doesn't this create kind of a bunch of lazy sloths
who don't work anymore and just collect the money?"
That's kind of instinctively what you think would end
up happening.
>> Yeah, yeah.
>> A bunch of people would say, "Well,
what am I going to go to work for.
I'm getting paid anyway."
>> Exactly, exactly.
I think we have a very mistaken image of human nature.
I mean, if you watch a lot of the news as most of us do --
I believe it's one
of the biggest addictions in our society.
>> Thank God.
>> Well, good for you.
[ Laughter ]
It's a big problem for me, actually.
I mean, the news is always about exceptions, right?
It's about things that go wrong,
about corrupting, crises, terrorism.
So if you watch a lot of the news,
at the end of the day you know exactly how the world
doesn't work.
Because you've only heard about these weird exceptions.
And you'll have a quite negative image of human nature.
You'll think that most people, again, the yare probably going
to be lazy or want to be free riders, et cetera.
So I think the only way to combat that misperception is
by telling stories about what actually happens
when you give people something like free money.
And the book is full of those kind of stories.
>> A lot of people on the surface would look at this
and say this is a bunch of socialist tripe because apart
from anything else, it would seem to run entirely counter
to capitalism and the notion of kind of small government.
>> I think it's completely the other way around.
I believe the basic income would be the crowning achievement
of capitalism.
It would give everyone the freedom to start a new company,
move to a different job, move to a different city.
It will make capitalism much more dynamic.
I mean, if you think about it, just the incredible amount
of talent we are wasting right now in two ways.
So still, around the developed world,
millions of people are withering away in poverty.
That's just a very bad use of resources to say it
like an economist would.
And I think one of the biggest taboos here is
that about a third of the workforce according
to recent polls is now stuck in a job
that they think is completely meaningless, right?
So there was a poll in the UK two years ago,
found out that 37% of British workers have a job
that they think is just useless, doesn't add anything of value.
Now we're not talking about teachers
or garbage collectors or nurses here.
We're talking about consultants and bankers
and lawyers, et cetera.
So people who are very successful
in the knowledge economy, who have great resumes,
great salaries, who still at the end of the day --
well, maybe you need to give them one day or two,
but they'll admit it's not very useful what they're doing.
In fact, in the book you talk --
I think you've called them bullshit jobs.
[ Laughter ]
Am I quoting you correctly?
>> Well, it's a very scientific concept.
[ Laughter ]
It was originally coined by David Graber,
an American anthropologist who wrote a fascinating essay
on the phenomenon of bullshit jobs.
And it's just astounding.
You know, when I started researching it, I first thought,
you know, "How big can this be?"
Right? I mean, we've got capitalism,
we've got the invisible hand that is supposed to get rid
of all bullshit, of all jobs that are not very necessary.
I started researching it more and more and when I wrote
about it people started sending me emails and tweets
and you know, connecting on Facebook
and saying, "Yes, yes, yes."
>> I have one of those jobs.
>> Yes, obviously this is about me.
Actually, I've done a few events, one event just
after the election of Donald Trump.
It was probably also because people were really rethinking
our lives, you know, that week.
[ Laughter ]
And I was doing an event, and the chair asked the audience,
"Who has a bullshit job?"
And I think about a third of all hands went up in the air.
>> So define a bullshit job.
>> I don't know, that's not for me.
That's the brilliant thing about --
>> Yeah, but what makes it a bullshit job?
>> People can define it for themselves, right?
So if people say about their own job that it doesn't add anything
of value, that they're basically just sending emails
to other people all day or writing reports no one reads,
or inventing financial products that only destroy value.
[ Laughter ]
>> It sounds like politics.
>> Trying to get people to click on ads all the time.
I mean, that's basically what a big part
of the economy is right now.
There's some interesting research from when we look
at what graduates of the Ivy League universities
in the US do.
You know, just 30 or 40 years ago they all went to work
for NGO's, the universities, government, et cetera.
Nowadays they go either to Wall Street or Silicon Valley.
What do they do in Wall Street?
They start rent seeking.
They start actually destroying value.
If you don't believe me, read the recent reports
from the International Monetary Fund.
I mean, they're basically saying the same thing.
And Silicon Valley, well there's a great quote from someone
who worked at Facebook for a few years.
And he said that the best minds of my generation are thinking
about how to make people click ads.
And that's pretty sad, isn't it?
>> There was also, you write about the strikes
and different classes of workers going out on strike.
Talk us through that.
>> Well, I was just thinking,
there is one other way you can find
if you have a bullshit job, yes or no.
I mean, just stop doing it, right, and see what happens.
[ Laughter ]
>> Another scientific experiment.
>> Yeah, exactly.
I'm just going to look throughout history
at what happened when different professions went on strike.
So at first I thought, you know, I want to look at a profession
that is really, really important, that if they go
on strike, it's a disaster.
I thought the doctors are probably a good example.
So I looked it up, and actually when doctors go on strike,
life expectancy goes up.
[ Laughter ]
So that was probably not a very good example.
But I thought, well, probably garbage collectors.
They are probably a good example.
And throughout history, you know, whenever they go
on strike, it is a disaster.
So in the book I tell the story of a strike
of garbage collectors in New York in 1968.
It lasted for just six days
and the emergency state had to be declared.
And it turns out, you know, a big city like New York,
they really cannot do without garbage collectors.
And then I wondered, you know,
has it ever happened throughout all of world history
that the bankers went on strike?
I was really curious about that.
So I started researching it and researching it
and I started actually, I don't know, 3000 BC with the rise
of finance, et cetera.
And I found only one example in all of world history,
and this was in Ireland, 1970.
The bankers were angry that their wages were not keeping
up with inflation, so they said, "You know what, you'll have it.
We'll just stop working and then you'll see just how important
we are."
And at that point, all the experts, all the economists,
they all predicted this would be a heart attack
for the economy, right?
We really cannot do without these bankers.
The strike started and nothing much happened actually.
[ Laughter ]
The garbage collector strike was six days
and this strike was six months actually.
And then the bankers came back and said, "All right,
all right, all right."
[ Laughter ]
"We'll go back to work this year."
>> Who would have thought that bankers have bullshit jobs?
>> Who'd have thought, yeah?
[ Laughter ]
And I think what actually
in reality happened was even more interesting,
is that what the Irish did is they immediately invented their
own financial system.
So they started writing IOU's to each other you know,
on the backs of cigar boxes or on toilet paper or whatever.
>> This is the Irish.
>> Yeah, yeah.
And what's also important here were the pubs.
So there were 15,000 pubs at that time in Ireland.
And the owners of the pubs basically became the
new bankers.
[ Laughter ]
>> That's so harsh.
[ Laughter ]
>> There's one economist who later wrote that you know,
if you sell liquids to your clients,
then you probably also know something
about their liquidity, right?
[ Laughter ]
So that is what happened.
They invented a new financial system.
The economy just kept growing.
Businesses just kept operating.
It wasn't a huge deal.
And actually, when one journalist wrote
about this event, 20-30 years later, she said, "Well,
people don't remember much about it, probably because you know,
it didn't change much."
And that's probably why so many people have forgotten
about this, the one and only strike of bankers
in all of world history.
And I think it also shows that sure, I mean,
we need a financial sector or we need a money system.
The Irish immediately invented a new one.
But we can do without a lot of the bullshit
that is in the current one.
You know, all the speculation and stuff.
>> So if it makes as much imminent sense as you say
and so well articulate the idea of the basic universal income,
why hasn't it been more widely adopted?
>> I don't know.
As a historian, I don't believe in big historical laws
or reasons or whatever.
But if you really delve into the history of basic income
in the '70's, that you'll just be astonished
by the coincidences and that it could easily have gone the
other way.
What I think is fascinating is that if you look at these kind
of utopian ideas, crazy ideas you could say,
is that they always start on the fringes of society.
They always start with people who are dismissed
as unreasonable and unrealistic, et cetera.
And then they start to move towards the centre.
So if you look at the basic income debate, you know,
it started in the '60's and then at the end
of the '60's everyone thought it was going to be happening
at the beginning of the '70's.
Or Nixon said, "Sure, let's implement it."
And I think we can sort
of see history repeating itself right now.
I mean, just a few years ago, in 2013 when I first wrote
about basic income -- well, you should know that the Dutch word
for basic income is [Dutch word] which sort of means base salary.
And we only used it in one context back then,
as the base salary of the bankers.
So when I wrote about basic income, people thought,
"You want to have base salaries for bankers?
What are you talking about?"
And now, I mean just a few years later you see all these
experiments popping up
and actually sometimes even politicians are debating it.
But I think it also shows you
that it never begins with politicians.
It only ends there.
Just like it almost ended with Nixon,
but it will never start there.
>> Is it now gaining currency and a certain inevitability
because of the rapid pace of automation and the talk
of artificial intelligence,
meaning robots are going to take all our jobs?
You know, some of the predictions of 50-60%
of all jobs done now won't exist in sort of 20 or 30 years --
is that just going to necessitate this conversation
where we have to find a way to survive one way or another?
>> Well, again, as a historian, if you look at that debate,
that the robots are going to take all our jobs,
you sort of have the feeling like, "I heard this before."
And then you go back to the archives for the '60's
for example, or also
in the 1920's people were saying that as well.
This is a very old story.
So if you are a journalist right now working for, I don't know,
Wired or something like that, or a tech magazine,
I really recommend go to the archives, copy, paste,
publish again and you're done for the day.
So I think what we underestimated is
that capitalism has a quite extraordinary ability to come
up with new bullshit jobs, right?
This can go on for a very long time.
And that's really something
that people didn't predict in the '60's.
They thought, "You know, if the robots are going
to take all those jobs, which they did, you know,
then we'll just start living the good life
and boredom will be the great challenge of the future."
But they never thought that capitalism would be so adaptive.
And I mean now it's 30% or 40%, could be 60% in the future.
Could be 100%.
I mean, it's theoretically possible that we'll live
in a society where everyone is just pretending
to work while we're all in reality browsing Facebook.
I mean, many workplaces are already like that, right?
>> Exactly what I was thinking.
Yeah. Look, one of the other issues you raise
in the book is the concept of open borders,
which we've actually talked about on this stage before.
It's a radical concept and for most people,
especially the Parliament, they think chaos.
You only have to look to Germany they would say and what happened
with a million people flooding in.
>> Well, it's not chaos there.
I live quite close to Germany
and they're doing quite well actually.
>> It's certainly the story the politicians want to tell us.
>> Yeah, yeah.
You know, the idea of open borders
around the globe is definitely the most radical idea
in my book.
But it might also be the most important one.
Because I believe that Utopian thinking always starts
with thinking about what is wrong
with our current society or the current world.
It always starts with the injustices in the hear and now.
So a basic income is the answer to millions of people
in meaningless jobs, millions of people in poverty,
the idea of a 15-hour work-week is the answer to you know,
so many people that are completely stressed out
and have no time to devote to things
that they really care about.
And open borders is the answer
to probably the biggest injustice in all of the world,
is just the incredible inequality that still exists.
And meanwhile, we've got a mountain of evidence.
And I go over all that evidence in the chapter
about open borders that shows that so many of the things
that we have against immigration are simply factually incorrect.
So they're not lazy.
They don't take our jobs.
They actually create more jobs.
It's not true that they're all violent criminals,
et cetera, et cetera.
If you look at the actual data, it's simply not true.
So I felt I had to talk
about that most utopian of ideas as well.
>> What happens to the countries left behind?
So the countries that are not wealthy or prosperous
and in conflict and so on?
If everyone flees, what happens?
They just become failed states.
>> I think the evidence shows that home countries benefit
from immigration as well.
So if we look at something like the amount of money
that immigrants send back to their own country,
it's triple the amount of official development aid.
So that's pretty huge.
And if we have actually breathing borders,
so people are able to get into a different country
but also get back, then you know, almost everyone wants
to get back to their home country at some point.
There's some fascinating evidence about the border
between Mexico and the US here.
So in the 1970's and in the 1980's, hundreds of thousands
of Mexicans moved to the US,
and it was very easy to get to the US.
And about 80% of them moved back again,
because it was easy to get back as well.
Now, still hundreds of thousands of Mexicans go to the US,
but they don't go back anymore.
So that's what you do when you build walls.
People still come, but they don't go back anymore.
So they're very, very counterproductive.
So the same thing is happening in Europe right now.
The higher the walls, the more illegal immigrants you're going
to get.
>> Is there likely to be any political appetite
for open borders anytime soon?
>> I don't know.
I mean, I think that the real politicians are not in places
like Cambara or Washington or Westminster
or something like that.
I think that real politics with a capital P is
about changing the zeitgeist, right, talking about new ideas,
what we're trying to do here.
And if more and more people recognise
that the status quo is simply infeasible, you know,
that we need new ideas, which is I believe happening right now --
I mean, after 2016 with Trump and Brexit,
I mean it's obviously clear to so many people
that we can't go on like this.
So yeah, I always say that I'm not an optimist or a pessimist.
I'm a possiblist.
You know, I believe that things can be different.
But if we want it to be different, you know,
we've got to get up and do something, right?
>> With the issue of open borders,
just in a very pragmatic sort of logistic sense,
if everyone floods into a country at the same time,
how does the state cope?
Where do they sleep?
How are they fed if they haven't got any money?
What do they do?
>> Now don't get me wrong,
the idea of open borders is a utopian vision for the future.
I think that the road to utopia is always about a lot
of small steps that you can take in the direction.
Like taking a little bit more immigrants
and a little bit more, et cetera.
Experimenting along the way and seeing what you can manage.
I think that is what we should be striving for,
and maybe in the future, you know, in the year 2200
or 2300 we'll look back on our time and wonder about you know,
what a crazy, unjust system it was, that people were not free
to move wherever they wanted.
>> Underlying a lot of what you talk about as being utopia is
about trying to address inequality.
And I'm wondering what you thought
of the Occupy movement coming as it did
after the global financial crisis.
It seemed sort of very well-timed
to capture the international anger about inequality
and the mood would have seemed to have been right for change.
Did you think the Occupy movement was a bit
of a lost opportunity?
>> I think so, yes.
What I've always been really fascinated by is the huge role
that crises play in world history.
So if we look for example at the rise of neo-liberalism,
it's quite interesting that it all started at the end
of the 1940's with Milton Friedman the economist,
Fredrick von Haag the philosopher coming together
with a few other guys.
And they were very lonely back then.
They said, "You know, everyone is a socialist right now.
Everyone is a Keynesian right now.
But what we are going to do is we are going to try
to build a movement, develop ideas, you know,
start new institutions, think tanks, et cetera.
And there will be a time at some point in the future,
and it might take years and years, but there will be a time
when the current economic system or the current body
of it just breaks down."
And they were right.
I mean, in the '70's with stagflation and the oil crisis
and the inflation, et cetera, it was suddenly clear
that it was time for something new according
to many people at least.
And they really grabbed that opportunity
and they injected those new ideas, neo-liberal ideas
that they had been inventing and developing for so long
into the public debate.
So it wasn't Reagan or Thatcher
that started this revolution, you know?
They inherited these ideas from other people.
The problem with 2008 with the financial crash
and the Occupy movement was that there were no new ideas.
I mean, I think that is still the problem so often
with the left these days,
is that it only knows what it's against, right?
Against austerity, against the establishment,
against homophobia, against racism, against everything.
I mean, that was even a title of a book recently published
by a New York intellectual, Against Everything.
First chapter, Against Exercise.
[ Laughter ]
I'm against it all as well.
But you also have to be for something, right?
We need some vision of where we want to go
because that is what progress is always like.
It is always, as Oscar Wilde once wrote,
"The realisation of utopias."
So we need some vision of utopia.
>> So you mentioned in the book that back in the '70's,
this was trialled in Canada, the basic income.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Talk us through that and why it was abandoned.
>> This experiment started in 1974 and it was
in Dothan, a small town there.
What they did is, well,
they basically eradicated poverty there.
So everyone that fell below the poverty line, his income
or her income was immediately topped up.
It was called the town with no poverty.
>> How many people in the town?
>> A few thousand.
So the amount of families
that received support was 1,000 families.
Now what happened is that for four years there were a lot
of economists and sociologists and anthropologists
who all descended on the town and did their research,
did interviews, collected data, et cetera.
Now, after those four years,
they wanted to start analysing the results.
But you know, it was 1978
and a new conservative government had come to power.
And they thought, "You know,
this is a really weird experiment.
What are you doing?
I mean, you're just giving free money to people and now you want
to analyse the results?
Well, we already know what the results are.
It was a disaster, I mean, obviously."
So there was no money left to analyse the results.
What they did is they put all the interviews, all the data,
they put it all in the archives, 2,000 boxes
and everyone forgot about it.
It was only 25 years later
that a Canadian professor Evelyn Forgier found the records,
did the analysis and discovered that it had been a huge success.
Healthcare costs went down.
Hospital admissions went down by 8.5% which is huge if you think
about just how much we're spending on healthcare
in developed countries these days.
Again, crime went down, performance better in school,
domestic violence went down.
And mental health complaints were down.
And you know, what people worry most about or often is
that you know, was everyone lazy?
No. Like total work hours declined by about 1%
and almost every time this was compensated
by people doing more volunteer work or going to school longer
or that kind of thing.
So this is one of the most thorough basic income
experiments that was ever done,
but we had forgotten about it for so long.
>> Why was it abandoned if presumably,
anecdotally at least, they knew it was working,
they would have felt that it was working?
>> I think it was really the zeitgeist
that was shifting back then.
So I mean, it was in the '70's
that obviously neo-liberalism took off, right?
And a conservative government came into power in 1978
which was already incredibly influenced by these ideas.
I mean, it was only a few years later that Reagan
and Thatcher took the stage.
So yeah, I think the basic income sort
of missed its opportunity to become real.
>> If you want to start making your way to the --
it's very hard for us to see over here,
but if you've got a question for Rutger,
just hop over to number one or number two over here
and I'll draw you into the conversation.
Go ahead.
>> Hi.
>> You're quick.
>> Hi, I'm Dani.
I'm actually part of the Basic Income Network.
>> Cool.
>> We're a global group that are trying
to promote basic income around the world.
And part of the challenge that I'm having in Australia
at the moment is that the conversation isn't being
taken seriously.
I think you saw the idea very much,
that a lot of people were nodding their heads.
So I think that's a really good sign.
But what's your advice for getting corporations,
getting politicians to actually start listening and to listen
to people like me and not think I'm just some leftist young
person who doesn't know what she's talking about?
>> What I've discovered in the past few years is
that it's really effective to use right-wing language
to defend progressive ideas.
[ Laughter ]
So what I'm saying all the time to these business leaders
or politicians, I'm saying,
"Well maybe you don't have a heart,
but at least you have a wallet, right?"
>> Yeah.
>> So it simply makes financial sense.
I think it's no coincidence that so many people
in Silicon Valley are now interested.
If we sort of point out that basic income is an investment
that in the long run pays for itself,
and in that sense it's literally free money,
that is probably much more convincing to people
on the other side of the political spectrum
than if you just keep on saying, "Oh,
the current system is so unfair.
And we need to pity these poor people, et cetera,
and it's immoral to let them live in poverty."
Which I think is true.
But it will only appeal to a certain part of the population
and we need to get bigger than that.
>> And when you're talking about the financial benefits
and it paying itself back, you're talking
about the lower health costs
and all the other things that accrue?
>> Exactly.
There was one study in the 1990's, actually sort
of a natural experiment.
What happened is that a casino opened in North Carolina
and it was operated by the eastern band of Cherokee Indians
and they were allowed to just distribute the earnings among
their members.
So suddenly thousands of people, many of them left in poverty,
received $8,000-9,000.
And there's an economist from UCLA, his name is Randal Aiki
who later calculated that the savings again
in lower health care costs, kids performing better in school,
lower crime rates, these savings were bigger
than the cash grants themselves.
Now just think about that.
That is really radical and really fascinating.
It has huge implications for what we should do about poverty
and about this whole debate.
Because normally the debate goes like this.
The left says, "We've got to help these poor people."
And then the right says, "Yeah, maybe, but it's too expensive."
End of debate, right?
But you can really flip it around if it's like,
"We've got to do this because it makes sense.
I mean, this is an investment.
It's just a good business decision."
>> Does it end up harmonising what everybody says?
So it in itself is more equalising?
>> That's a really great question.
And it's also one of the most overlooked effects
of a basic income.
So just imagine, if you are a garbage collector, a teacher
or a nurse and you suddenly receive a basic income,
well it is also a universal strike fund, right?
You can go on strike all the time.
So you'll have a lot more bargaining power
and your wage will probably have to go up.
Now if you are a banker or consultant or a lawyer
or whatever, and you go on strike,
well nothing much happens.
So you don't have extra bargaining power
and your wage will probably go down a little bit.
So if we implement the basic income,
in the long run wages will start reflecting the social value
of different jobs much more.
And we could move towards a society
where cleaners earn more than bankers.
And I'd like to live in that society actually.
[ Laughter ]
[ Applause ]
>> Hi. I'd like to know where will the money come from?
Will it be like a tax of the multinationals?
And also, who are your staunchest critics
and how do you navigate them?
>> Okay, so this is obviously a very important part
of the whole basic income debate.
Like how are we going to finance it?
And I believe that the devil is really in the details.
So there are many, many ways to do it.
There are some forms of basic income out there
that I believe would be a disaster.
There are some neo-libertarians on the right who say,
"Let's just get rid of the whole welfare state.
You know, let's get rid of universal healthcare,
let's get rid of public education
and just give people one cash grant transfer and that's it."
That's not what I'm arguing for.
I think that basic income should be the crowning achievement
of capitalism, but also of social democracy.
It should really be implemented as a supplement
to universal healthcare and public education,
which are incredibly important achievements
of the 20th century.
Now I'd like to finance the basic income in a way
with taxes, so not just print out money, but with taxes
from the welfare state right now.
I'd like to fund it in a way that it will reduce inequality.
And well, there are probably different sources you'd need,
but the most obvious thing to start with is wealth.
Just if you look at the incredible inequality
that is growing around the world, you know,
in the western world as well, I mean everyone has heard
of Thomas Beckett, right?
We didn't actually read his book, but we know his argument.
That's probably the most logical lace to start.
But there are many versions out there.
So we should be wary of --
well, it sometimes happens that people say, "Oh,
everyone is in favour of basic income,"
but we're actually talking about different things.
So that's something to look out for.
>> And the second part of your question was,
who are your staunchest critics and how do you navigate them?
>> I think that like the biggest criticism that comes up time
and time again is that people basically say, "Well,
this all sounds very nice and well,
but you've just got a misguided view
of what humanity is really like."
That is something that people go back to all the time.
Like in the end, humans are just corrupt and we want
to be free riders and you know,
deep down we're just monsters or animals.
And civilisation is this very thin layer
and you're just being very naïve about all this.
What I think is that that vision
of human nature is very unrealistic and very naïve.
That is something that the evidence actually shows us.
But deep down or fundamentally,
the debate around basic income is a debate
around what we are really like.
Are we nice and creative?
Do we want to contribute to the common good?
You know, are we essentially social beings,
or are we all freeloaders, free riders that just are selfish
and want to get as much for ourselves.
That is the big debate that is behind basic income.
>> Thank you.
Yes?
>> Hi, Rutger.
Thank you for putting forth your thoughts this afternoon.
I'm a fan of the universal basic income as an initiative.
I've come across it and read a bit
on it the last couple of years.
I think it's important for it to be understood not
as a new concept but rather as something
that has been around for a while.
Maybe it's just gotten lost a bit in the last generation.
I guess my thoughts on it is that there seems to be a lot
of distrust from both sides of politics as to how it's
to be administered on a government level.
So I suppose my question is this:
how best can it be administered on a government level?
Yeah, that's basically my question.
>> What will probably not happen is
that a basic income will be implemented in one stroke.
We will probably get there gradually, you know,
one small step after another.
And there are many roads to utopia.
So one of the roads is the roads of experiments.
You know, just doing more of those experiments
and seeing what works along the way.
I mean, that's happening in Finland,
in Canada and in other places.
The other thing you could do is
to make our current welfare system more basic income-ish,
you know, to move it in that direction,
make it a bit more unconditional,
make it a big more universal.
Make it a bit more individual.
>> But the political problem with that --
pardon the interruption --
the political problem with that always is
that society generally doesn't want
to give wealthy people more money.
>> It just really depends on how you frame it.
So with a basic income, if you would finance it
with the welfare for example or with progressive taxation, sure,
the rich will receive a basic income, but they'll pay
for five basic incomes or ten basic incomes or whatever.
If we compare different countries now internationally,
it's actually the countries with the most universal systems
where for example also the middle class
or even the rich benefit from free childcare or whatever,
free public education, it is those countries
that are best at reducing poverty.
And the reason is very simple:
if everyone benefits it's just very difficult to get rid
of a certain policy or system.
The problem in the UK and the US is
that they are very targeted systems of welfare.
Then if a politician comes along and is looking for money,
you know, it's very easy to get rid of those policies
or that kind of very small, targeted welfare state.
And these people are not really able to defend themselves.
They'll lose a lot of votes when they do that.
Now if you have a very universal welfare state
like in northern Europe or in Australia as well,
especially when you look at universal healthcare,
it's nearly impossible to get rid of.
You know, in many countries, as a politician, if you really want
to touch universal healthcare,
I mean you're finished as a politician.
Now, we've got one state
that has implemented a small basic income.
That's Alaska.
They finance it with oil money and it's about $2,000 each year.
Now if as a politician in Alaska you want to touch that money,
which some politicians have tried,
it's the end of your career.
>> And that operates throughout Alaska?
>> Yeah. Yeah, so I believe if you've lived there
for a few years, you'll get it.
>> And does it cancel out other welfare payments?
>> No, no.
>> It's in addition to other specific welfare measures?
>> Yeah. And the framing is also again very different.
So a basic income is a right.
It's not a favour.
It's just something you deserve simply because you exist.
Now the language we use
around our current welfare system is really one
of conditionality.
Like only the deserving poor can get it and you really have
to prove time and time again that you're sick enough,
that you are depressed enough,
that you are really a hopeless case
that will never get anything done in your whole life.
And once you've proved that,
then you'll get a very small amount of money.
Now just imagine what that does to people.
If you've got to fill in thousands of forms
and interviews, et cetera,
where all the time you're basically talking yourself down,
well is it really surprising
that then people become depressed
and find it very hard to get a job, right?
[ Applause ]
>> Hi, Rutger.
My name's Mark and as a bureaucrat
in a bullshit job I take a lot of offence at what you said.
[ Laughter ]
But as you know, the modern welfare state has indexation
regimes that keep the rate of payment in line
with things like inflation.
>> Yeah.
>> So what kind of indexation regime are you envisioning
for a universal basic income?
And if you give people that base level of income, won't the price
of products just rise in accordance with that level?
>> That's a good question.
So it really depends again on how you finance it.
If you just fund the basic income with printing a lot
of extra money, then you're obviously going
to get inflation in the long run.
Now there are some economists right now who say we should do
that because there's not a lot of demands in the economy.
And Milton Friedman called this helicopter money,
like just throwing money out of helicopters.
Other people call it quantitative easing
for the people.
Like we're now doing it only for the banks, but for everyone.
But obviously, in the long run, that's not a solution, right?
Because you'll get mass inflation.
So what we have to do is
to finance the basic income with taxes.
Now this means that the money supply,
the amount of money will just be the same.
But inflation is still a risk, but only if people will turn
out to be massively lazy.
Because then you'll have the same amount
of money chasing fewer products and services
and then you'll get inflation.
Now a big part of my book is obviously about showing
that that is simply not the case,
that actually it would probably make the labour market
more dynamic.
Now if inflation is locally for example still a problem,
then there are side policies you can use
like indexation, et cetera.
And we've got a lot of great researchers around the world
that try and answer the question, you know,
how much money do you need to live a proper life,
you know, without poverty?
And it differs from country to country.
But I always say the basic income has to be high enough
to get people out of poverty and just support the basic needs.
>> Okay, go on.
>> Thank you.
Did you want to ask a follow-up question?
>> Yeah. I mean, poverty is a relative concept.
There are five different measurements of poverty
that I know of off the top of my head.
It's like a relative concept you're talking about.
That it has to be set at the poverty level, I don't mean
to be offensive, but it's almost a meaningless statement.
>> To be honest, I get that remark a lot.
Like, "Oh, there will always be poverty there
because we've defined it in a relative way."
But I mean, if you live in poverty, even in a rich country,
you simply cannot participate on a proper level in society.
And there's not much relative about that.
And there's a lot of research out there that shows
that we can eradicate it, you know?
We can have a society in Australia or in Holland
where I'm from where everyone has the means
to make their own choices.
Where no one has to worry about being able to pay their rent
or feeding their children or whatever.
And every society should obviously have a discussion,
a democratic discussion
about what the definition of poverty is.
And sure, when we get richer,
then probably the poverty line will go up.
But that's what progress should look like, right?
>> Thanks, guys.
>> Yes?
>> Yeah, hi.
My question is about how do you see this working in countries
of different income levels?
So middle income, low income?
And how do you also see this as a possibility
of maybe changing how our economic power is concentrated?
>> Right now in India, there's a lot of interest in basic income.
Actually, on a high political level you could say
that they are ahead of other countries.
Why? Well the reason is very simple.
India has hundreds or maybe thousands
of anti-poverty programmes that are very ineffective.
I mean, there's a lot
of corruption, a lot of bureaucracy.
And the actual amount of money that reaches the people
that really need it is little compared to the amount of money
that is sent in the first place.
So it's probably true that basic income is a more promising idea
for the developing world than for the developed world.
It could really make a huge difference there.
And the thinking behind it is already making a
huge difference.
In the book I talk about an NGO called Give Directly.
Well the name says it all.
They just give money directly
to extremely poor people in Uganda or Kenya.
>> On a per capita basis rather than channelling it
through the government.
>> Exactly.
Exactly. Just $500 or $1,000 in huge cash amounts.
They're also doing the biggest basic income study
that has ever been done with 10,000 participants.
>> In Uganda.
>> Yeah, and in Kenya.
Really exciting.
And what's also very interesting about this organisation is
that in the first place,
technological breakthroughs have made this possible.
So what they can do is just give people a sim card
and transfer the money to it and that works very well.
That as simply not possible 30 years ago.
And the second place is
that they do incredibly thorough scientific research
on the charity that they do, which is a big exception
in the world of NGO's and charity NGO's.
And again, these randomised controlled trials time
and time find that it's just a really effective way.
I mean, it's pretty crazy if you think about it
that we are sending white people in SUV's
to incredibly poor countries, where if we just sell the SUV
and hand over their salaries, I mean it's going
to be a lot more effective.
But we are such incredible paternalists.
We always believe that we know what's best for the poor.
We know what's best for them -- well, we don't.
We really have no idea.
[ Applause ]
>> It's the same basic concept around micro financing
in developing countries.
>> Exactly.
>> That you give them a loan.
>> It's just that the cash transfers --
I mean, they come out as much more effective
in recent scientific research.
It's just much more -- yeah, if you look at the outcomes,
there's quite a lot of --
there's actually hundreds of studies right now,
especially in the global south, where NGO's
and governments have experimented
with just giving free cash.
Or sometimes with small conditions such as you've got
to have your kids vaccinated or send them to school.
But it's a very different kind
of welfare state than we are used to.
>> How long has Finland been doing it?
>> Oh, just since the 1st of January this year.
>> And how's that going?
Is it the whole country?
>> Still waiting for the results.
No, it's just an experiment with 2,000 participants.
But it's interesting to see what will happen.
>> Yes?
>> My name's Ava and I'm a well-known local stirrer.
[ Laughter ]
>> Indeed.
>> And I'm part of a group that's trying
to get the basic income going in Australia.
We are spending a large amount of money on the opposite
of a UBI at the moment, spending it particularly
on something called the cashless debit card.
Where we're persecuting the poor by taking away their cash.
I reckon that we need to ask our government, and I'm interested
in your viewpoint, to put some of that cash into an experiment
by giving the same indigenous groups,
mainly indigenous communities that have been put
onto a highly conditional card where they have no control
over their cash, or only 20% of it,
maybe 50 in the Northern Territory.
To actually experiment and give the same people a two-
to three-year break on an unconditional card.
Because I think given the evidence you've put up here,
it would provide evidence for a country
which is extremely means-test oriented
and extraordinarily paternalistic,
that we could actually show that that particular way
of paying money is much more productive.
What do you think?
>> Well, I completely agree with you.
[ Applause ]
>> There's a whole story in the paper today
where the minister's come out delightedly saying, "It works.
I've been going through the data."
And I used to teach research methods and he's wrong.
It doesn't work.
His data is all wrong.
>> Well, there's one small problem
that I've encountered a few times, is that you know,
when you talk about experiments, you really have
to be a barbarian to be against experiments, right?
We've always got to try new stuff
and see what works and what doesn't.
I mean, every big company is doing experiments all the time,
but somehow governments are not experimenting.
But that's what you should do.
I mean, that's the way you learn new things.
Now what I've had a few times -- I actually had a conversation
with a conservative politician a few months ago in Holland.
And he said, "Yeah, experiments are interesting,
et cetera, et cetera.
But the problem is that it might work."
[ Laughter ]
>> I think that's what they're scared of here.
That's probably right.
>> That seems to be what you're actually seeing right now.
So that is I think what some politicians are afraid
of with the basic income experiments.
They are really afraid that it might work very, very well.
>> Thank you.
>> Why would they be scared of that?
>> Well, then their whole ideology would crumble, right?
You'd have to revolutionise the welfare state.
So that is something that people don't like changing their minds.
That's something that we find very hard as individuals.
And that's also why these crises play such a big role
in world history, because these are moments
where everything breaks down
and no one knows what's true anymore.
And that's the moments that things change.
>> And some good opportunity for things to change.
>> Exactly.
>> Thank you, Ava.
>> Thank you.
[ Applause ]
>> Hi, Rutger.
Just getting back to financing again,
you touched on automation previously,
so given the possibility
that we'll have perhaps nearly all human labour wiped
out by robots in the long-term,
and given that in the tech industries, you know,
generally the activity is dominated by single players --
Facebook, Google, Amazon.
Do you see the possibility
that half a dozen companies could be controlling the bulk
of the world economy?
And how are we going to get the money off them?
Do we socialise at all?
Do we tax them 90%?
What do we do?
>> Well, you know, I gave a talk
at Google X a few months ago while I was
on a book tour in the US.
And it was quite shocking actually.
Someone said to me, "You know,
basic income, that's a great idea."
Alphabet could finance that, you know,
the parent company of Google.
"We could give about $100 to everyone
in California, no problem.
We'll get basic income."
And I thought, well,
maybe Google should start paying taxes first.
[ Laughter ]
That would be a great start, right?
[ Applause ]
>> Did you say that to them?
>> Yeah, it was sort of laughing it off.
Like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah."
[ Laughter ]
They thought it was very unrealistic of me to assume.
>> To assume that they should pay taxes.
>> Yeah, or that they ever will.
[ Laughter ]
But yeah, I completely agree with you that one
of the great challenges of our time is that there is
so much power now concentrating in a very small number
of these huge companies.
And yeah, that is a challenge we've seen before
in the 19th century and we came up with solutions back then.
We broke up some of those countries.
Some of them were even nationalised
or taxed very heavily.
I mean, there is lots of stuff you can do about that.
But it's obviously that democracies will be threatened
if you don't do something about that kind of power accumulating.
>> To ask a follow up, so if we're talking about these kind
of measures, at the moment these players are relatively --
you know, they're relatively small compared
to what they will be in the future.
Therefore, they're not the same vested interest today
that they would be when you actually needed
to have these measures in.
Do you think these measures need
to be implemented sooner rather than later?
>> Oh, we should have done it 40 years ago.
I mean, some people say we need basic income
as an insurance policy for the rise of the rowboats.
We've already got the evidence.
We've got the means.
We can't waste much time on this, I believe.
I mean, there are now millions
of people withering away in poverty.
We are now wasting a huge amount of talent
of people doing completely useless jobs.
That is going on right now.
So this is not just some abstract future I'm
talking about.
It is a very practical idea that we can do tomorrow.
It's actually probably the least radical idea in my book.
I mean, really rethinking work or open borders,
much more radical and utopian.
>> I'm so sorry, everyone, we are out of time.
I need to wrap up the session.
But you can continue chatting to Rutger
when he signs your books out there.
Do continue the conversation.
But for now, please join me in thanking Rutger Bregman.
[ Applause ]