That's the time it takes you to blink.

- ナレーター】0.4秒。

It's also about how long goalkeepers have to save a penalty kick or fail trying.

瞬きをするのにかかる時間です。

And it's certainly not enough time for a goalie to react and respond.

また、ゴールキーパーがどれくらいの時間を持っているかということもあります。

So goalies can't solely rely on their speed and agility to save a penalty kick.

ペナルティーキック

Instead they have to pretty much guess which direction to go and rely on either luck or game theory.

しようとすると失敗します。

[Why penalty kicks are so unfair to the goalies]

そして、それは確かに十分な時間ではありません。

Game theory is a popular strategy in economics where the outcome of a situation relies more on how well you predict your opponent's actions than how you perform your own.

ゴールキーパーが反応して対応するために

So since the goalie has no choice but to guess, they're better off guessing logically than randomly.

だからゴールキーパーはスピードと俊敏性だけに頼ることはできない

That's where economists come in.

でペナルティキックをセーブした。

I would like to know what you do in the last 80 penalty kicks you faced?

代わりに、彼らはかなり推測する必要があります。

Do you have any tendencies?

運任せ

What does this guy do against right-footed kickers versus left-footed kickers?

またはゲーム理論。

That's economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.

戯曲

He studied over 11,000 penalty kicks, and in 2008 during the UEFA Champions League Final, it paid off, sort of.

経済学ではゲーム理論が人気の戦略

It was Manchester United against Chelsea.

ばんにんがかかっている

The game came down to a penalty shootout which was the perfect opportunity for Chelsea to put Huerta's advice into action.

相手の行動を予測できるかどうか

Along with several pointers Huerta had given Chelsea's goalie a key insight about Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

自分のパフォーマンスをどうするかよりも

Ronaldo would almost certainly kick the ball to the right if he paused on the run-up.

ゴールキーパーは推測するしかないので

And the advice worked.

適当に推測するよりも論理的に推測した方がいいんだよ

Ronaldo indeed paused and indeed kicked the ball to the right.

そこで経済学者の出番です。

Chelsea's goalie followed Huerta's advice and made the save.

- イグナシオ】最後に何をしているのか知りたい。

Ultimately Manchester United won the game, but despite Chelsea's loss, it was clear that economists and statisticians can help even the odds when it comes to penalty kicks.

あなたが直面した80のペナルティキック？

Because otherwise, it's a crap shoot for the goalie.

何か傾向はありますか？

In 2014 for example, FiveThirtyEight calculated that 72.5% of penalties in World Cup history went in.

こいつは右足のキッカーに対して何をするのか

For all competitions worldwide, it's even higher.

対左足キッカー？

And when you take a closer look, it's no wonder.

- 経済学者のイグナシオ・パラシオス・エルタだ。

Human response time takes roughly 1/10 of a second to kick in.

11,000本以上のペナルティキックを研究した。

The average kicker kicks a 70 mile per hour ball, which means the goalie won't even register the ball's direction until it's about 25 feet away.

と、2008年のUEFAチャンピオンズリーグ決勝の時のことです。

It will take him another .5 to .7 seconds to react and reach for the ball, but by that point, it's all over.

それが功を奏したんだ

Now the goalie can improve the odds if they start to move before the ball is even kicked,

マンチェスター・ユナイテッド対チェルシー戦だった。

but the goalie still has to basically guess a side and just go for it.

ＰＫ戦になってしまった

So if time is the goalie's enemy, maybe we should just move the penalty kicker further back.

チェルシーには絶好の機会だった

But for now, economists are a goalie's best friend when it comes to stopping penalty kicks,

フエルタのアドバイスを実行に移すために。

and turns out, Huerta is helping a team in the 2018 World Cup, though he wouldn't tell us who.

いくつかのポインタHuertaと一緒に