You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,

他の講演者の皆さんも

who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,

骨が折れることを話題にされるようですが

and, of course, with technology it never is.

テクノロジーがあれば別です

So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.

比較的 返り咲くことはとても簡単です

I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,

インターネットで何が起こったかを見てみると

with such an incredible last half a dozen years,

ここ６年間で驚くべきことが数々起こったため

that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.

たとえ話として例を挙げるのも難しい

A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things

決断の仕方 物事への反応の仕方

and what we're supposed to expect about the future

未来への展望の多くは

depends on how we bucket things

私たちがものごとを列挙し

and how we categorize them.

分類する方法により決まります

And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust

インターネットの栄枯盛衰のもっともらしい比較対象として

that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.

ゴールドラッシュが挙げられます

It's easy to think of this analogy as very different

他の例を挙げる方もいるでしょうが

from some of the other things you might pick.

ネット・ブームもゴールドラッシュも

For one thing, both were very real.

現実の出来事です

In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million

1849年におこったゴールドラッシュは ７億ドル相当の金が

worth of gold out of California. It was very real.

カリフォルニアから採掘されました

The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to

インターネットも現実的な

communicate with each other. It's a big deal.

人々のコミュニュケーション手段として

Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.

壮大なブームを巻き起こし その後 派手に崩壊しました

You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.

どちらもたくさんの詐欺により左右されました

I don't have to remind you of all the hype

どんな詐欺があったか言わなくてもご存じですね

that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.

金持ちになろうドットコム などです

But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."

ゴールドラッシュの時も「金 金 金」と見出しが載り

Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.

「蒸気船ポートランドに68人の金持ちが積み重なった金塊を持ち乗船」

Some have 5,000. Many have more.

「ほとんどが５千ドル相当以上の金を発掘し

A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.

10万ドル相当を持ち出した者も」

People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.

といった記事を読んで人々は興奮したのです

"The Eldorado of the United States of America:

「米国にも黄金の国 エルドラド発見」

the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."

「尽きることのない金鉱がカリフォルニアに」といった具合です

And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.

ゴールドラッシュとインターネットバブルの比較は鮮明です

So many people left what they were doing.

たくさんの人々が仕事を放り出し

And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.

ゴールドラッシュは何年も続きました

People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,

初めてニュースが東海岸に広まった1849年には

they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."

誰もそんな話を信じませんでした

But they keep hearing about people getting rich,

そして１年経った1850年にも次々に金持ちが生まれる話が

and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.

まだ信じられませんでした

By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth

３年後の1852年には 自分がカリフォルニアに

by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.

繰り出さなかった愚かさに気づき

These are community affairs, by the way.

東海岸の町ぐるみで

Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams

10～20人ずつのチームをつくり

of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,

会社を設立して

and they would form companies.

アメリカ大陸を横断したのです

These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,

ほとんどがグループで旅に出たのです

if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,

弁護士であろうが銀行員であろうが

no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.

どんな技能を持っていようが職を離れて金を掘り起こしに行ったのです

This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

コール医師もそんなひとりです

he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.

フィラデルフィアからパナマ経由で

They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,

地峡を超えて船に乗り

and then take another ship north.

北に向かったのです

This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.

トーランド医師は 幌馬車を使いました

This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.

ふたりとも名医であったにも関わらず

These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,

患者を残して カリフォルニアを

a surgeon in the other.

目指したのです

Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.

同じようにネット・バブルではドクター・クープドットコムが出現しています

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.

ゴールドラッシュに 人々は船から飛び降りるように殺到しました

The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak

サンフランシスコ港には 金を探しに行った乗務員が乗り捨てた船が

because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon

ピーク時には 600隻も

to go search for gold.

溢れました

So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.

残された600人の船長は

They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.

船をホテルにせざるを得なくなったそうです

You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.

ゴールド熱と同様にドットコム熱も

And you saw some of the excesses

同じような

that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.

行き過ぎた行動を生みました

The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.

サンフランシスコの砦には1300人の兵士がいたのですが

Half of them deserted to go look for gold.

その半数が職務を放棄し金を探しに行ったのです

And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half

そしてミイラ取りがミイラになるのを恐れて

because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.

連れ戻す命令はなかったそうです

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:

兵士が家族に宛てた手紙に

"The struggle between right and six dollars a month

「金が掘り当てられるかどうかで

and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."

月給６ドルと日給75ドルの差は厳しい」と書かれています

They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.

ゴールドラッシュにより燃え尽きる割合は非常に高かったのです

This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.

これはクロンダイク金鉱へ続くホワイト峠の道です

They loaded up their mules and their horses.

ラバや馬に重量オーバーになる程 荷物を積んで

And they didn't plan right.

きちんとした計画もなく

And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,

どこまで行けばよいか当てもないまま

and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.

荷物の積みすぎでほとんどの馬は

In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died

目的地にたどり着く前に

before they could get where they were going.

死んでしまったことから

It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."

「死に馬の道」と呼ばれるようになりました

And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:

カナダの内務大臣はこう書いたそうです

"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,

「荷馬が数千頭も死んで倒れている

sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,

崖の上から落ち 群れなして

with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,

荷鞍をつけたまま

sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes

泥の中にお互いもつれ合って

and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,

まだ死んでなくとも 息も絶え絶えだ

often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,

こんなひどい状況はあまり知らされていないが

a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches

カラスに眼をえぐり取られて

turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.

眼窩から眼がなくなった

The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere

馬の死骸に

account for the myriads of ravens along the road.

数えきれないカラスが群がっている

The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,

この「死に馬の道」の残酷な光景は

the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,

想像を絶するもので

cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."

言葉にはできません」

And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,

臭いがないだけで インターネットも同様に

we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.

燃焼割合は良くありません

I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.

皆さんの記憶に新しいコマーシャルをお見せしましょう

This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.

これは2000年のスーパーボウルの間に放映されたコマーシャルです

(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.

「たくさんの招待状が選べると言ったじゃないの」「その通りですが...」

Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?

「じゃあなぜこの人が私の招待状を持っているの」

Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.

「取るに足らない事と思われますが...」「あなたは私のものよ」

Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?

「皆さんには重大事かも」「この人あなたの奥さん？」

Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.

「15分後にはね」「一生に一度の一日なのです」

OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.

「私たちのスタートドットコム　イベントを世界に伝えよう」

Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.

このコマーシャルが何のためのものかよくわかりません

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

But they spent three and a half million dollars

スーパーボウルの間に放映されるコマーシャルなので

in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,

この会社は350万ドルこれにつぎ込んだのです

even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.

当時のこの会社の歳入は100万ドルしかなかったにも関わらずです

Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,

ここでゴールドラッシュとネット・バブルの比較が

and I think rather severely.

かなり食い違ってきます

And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.

ゴールドラッシュの場合 金が底をつけばそれで終わりです

Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson

ドーソンには ひどく失望した男が

at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.

現時点でたくさんいる

They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,

数千マイルも自分の命 健康 そして財産も脅かす危ない旅をして

spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform

何ヶ月もの厳しく骨の折れる労働の末

and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch

切望してきた最後のゴール地点で

have reached the coveted goal only to discover

期待が頂点に上り詰めた時に

the fact that there is nothing here for them."

実は何も残っていなかったことに気づかされたのです

And that was, of course, the very common story.

勿論 これはよくある話です

Because when you take out that last piece of gold --

最後の金塊を掘り出した後に

and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --

1849年のゴールドラッシュを見ればわかるように

the entire American river region, within two years --

アメリカの河川領域にある石が

every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies

２年の間にすべて裏返され

who used more sophisticated mining technologies

その後 洗練された採鉱技術を持つ

started to take gold out of there.

大会社が採掘を始めたのです

So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic

ですからゴールドラッシュよりはるかに楽観的になれる

and that analogy is the electric industry.

比較の対象は電気産業です

And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

インターネットと電気産業のあゆみの間には多くの共通点があります

With the electric industry you actually have to --

電気産業は

one of them is that they're both sort of thin,

小さな横のつながりで形成された

horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

色々な産業の層からなり

It's not a specific thing.

単体からなるものではありません

But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.

電気は大変幅広いため的を絞らなければいけません

You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.

電力を供給する素晴らしい手段でありながら

It's an incredible means of coordinating,

声を伝達できる電話のような

in a very fine-grained way, information flows.

きめ細かい情報まで伝達できるのです

There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.

電気には面白い側面があります

And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on

電気産業で起こった革命の中で今日お話ししたいのは

is sort of the golden age of appliances.

電化製品の黄金時代に

The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.

世界を電化製品の導入に乗り気にさせた製品は電球でした

So the light bulb is what wired the world.

電球が世界の回線を結んだのです

And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.

もともと電気の回線を引く際に 誰も

They were really thinking about --

電化製品のことは考えておらず

they weren't putting electricity into the home;

電力を家庭に普及させるというより

they were putting lighting into the home.

電球がメインだったのです

And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.

ですからご想像どおり

This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.

莫大な資産が投じられました

All the streets had to be torn up.

すべての道が掘り起こされ

This is work going on down in lower Manhattan

最初の発電所が建設された

where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.

マンハッタン南端部の様子です

And they're tearing up all the streets.

道を掘り起こしている様子です

The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,

エジソン電気照明がエジソン総合電気と社名を変え

which became General Electric,

後のゼネラル・エレクトリックの基礎となり

paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.

大変費用がかかる道路の掘り起こし作業に経費を出しました

But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.

しかし そこがインターネットとの共通点ではありません

Because, remember, the Web got to stand

ご存じのようにネットは

on top of all this heavy infrastructure

長距離電話回線用の

that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.

ネットワークを基盤に構築されました

So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --

インターネットブームが起きた1994年

I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,

ネットは年間2300%の割合で

when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.

急成長しました

How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994

ネットへの投資が盛んでなかったときに

when people weren't really investing in the Web?

どうやって2300%もの割合で成長を遂げられたのでしょうか？

Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.

なぜなら広範囲にわたるインフラが既に構築されていたからです

So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,

電球が そのインフラを構築させたのです

and then home appliances started coming into being.

そして家電製品が普及し始め

And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --

大きなセンセーションを巻き起こしたのです

this was the 1890 electric fan.

最初のセンセーションは1890年に世に出たこの扇風機です

And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --

こういった電化製品の黄金時代はかなりの間 続いたのです

it depends how you want to measure it --

どのようにその期間を測るかにもよりますが

but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.

40~60年間は続いたといえます

It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.

1890年ごろ世に紹介されたこの扇風機は大変な成功をおさめました

The electric iron, also very big.

そしてアイロンです　これも大ヒットしました

By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.

ちなみに これが最初のアスベスト訴訟の始まりです

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

There's asbestos under that handle there.

取っ手の内側にアスベストが使われていたのです

This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,

これが1905年にフーバー社から発表された最初の掃除機 スキナー・バキュームで

from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds

42kgもの重量があり２人がかりで動かさねばならず

and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.

自動車の1/4ほどの価格で売られていました

So it wasn't a big seller.

当然 あまり売れませんでした

This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --

これぞ家電製品の元祖です

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.

1905年のスキナー・バキュームは

But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.

３年後の1908年には軽量化され18kgになったそうです

Now, not all these things were highly successful.

こういった家電製品は皆ヒット商品ではありませんでした

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.

皆ネクタイにシワがよらないように気をつけたせいか

People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.

ネクタイのプレス機は

These never really caught on either:

一度もヒットしませんでした

the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.

これは靴のドライヤー兼ウォーマーです

This came in, like, six different colors.

６色から選べるのに売れませんでした

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

I don't know why. But I thought, you know,

どうしてでしょう

sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;

時には発明にも時期があります

maybe it's time to give this one another shot.

今がその時かも知れません

So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.

スーパーボウルのコマーシャルを

We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --

適切なパートナーと作ったら

(Laughter)

（聴衆より笑い）

I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.

今度はヒットするかも知れません

Now, the toaster was huge

トースターも大きな話題を呼びました

because they used to make toast on open fires,

直火でパンを焼いたからです

and it took a lot of time and attention.

もちろん 時間も労力もずいぶんかかりました

I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.

ここでひとつ質問です　皆さんこれが何かご存じでしょう

They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.

まだ電球が挿入されるソケットは発明されていませんでした

So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.

当時 電気の回路は家庭に普及していなかったのです

They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.

照明用の配線が施され家電がプラグで接続されました

They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.

どの家庭にも天井に電球用のソケットがありました

And you'd plug it in there.