Name: ジェフ・ベゾス：電気の比喩 (Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:46:47.000Z
Duration: 19 min 11 s

様態の副詞

When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.

テクノロジーや回復力は 想像するよりずっと簡単です

You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,

who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,

骨が折れることを話題にされるようですが

and, of course, with technology it never is.

So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.

比較的 返り咲くことはとても簡単です

I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,

インターネットで何が起こったかを見てみると

with such an incredible last half a dozen years,

ここ６年間で驚くべきことが数々起こったため

that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.

たとえ話として例を挙げるのも難しい

A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things

決断の仕方 物事への反応の仕方

and what we're supposed to expect about the future

分類する方法により決まります

And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust

インターネットの栄枯盛衰のもっともらしい比較対象として

that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.

ゴールドラッシュが挙げられます

It's easy to think of this analogy as very different

他の例を挙げる方もいるでしょうが

from some of the other things you might pick.

ネット・ブームもゴールドラッシュも

In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million

1849年におこったゴールドラッシュは ７億ドル相当の金が

worth of gold out of California. It was very real.

カリフォルニアから採掘されました

The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to

communicate with each other. It's a big deal.

人々のコミュニュケーション手段として

Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.

壮大なブームを巻き起こし その後 派手に崩壊しました

You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.

どちらもたくさんの詐欺により左右されました

I don't have to remind you of all the hype

どんな詐欺があったか言わなくてもご存じですね

that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.

金持ちになろうドットコム などです

But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."

ゴールドラッシュの時も「金 金 金」と見出しが載り

Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.

「蒸気船ポートランドに68人の金持ちが積み重なった金塊を持ち乗船」

「ほとんどが５千ドル相当以上の金を発掘し

10万ドル相当を持ち出した者も」

People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.

といった記事を読んで人々は興奮したのです

"The Eldorado of the United States of America:

「米国にも黄金の国 エルドラド発見」

the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."

「尽きることのない金鉱がカリフォルニアに」といった具合です

And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.

ゴールドラッシュとインターネットバブルの比較は鮮明です

So many people left what they were doing.

たくさんの人々が仕事を放り出し

And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.

ゴールドラッシュは何年も続きました

People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,

初めてニュースが東海岸に広まった1849年には

誰もそんな話を信じませんでした

But they keep hearing about people getting rich,

そして１年経った1850年にも次々に金持ちが生まれる話が

and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.

By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth

３年後の1852年には 自分がカリフォルニアに

by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.

繰り出さなかった愚かさに気づき

Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams

of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,

アメリカ大陸を横断したのです

These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,

ほとんどがグループで旅に出たのです

if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,

弁護士であろうが銀行員であろうが

no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.

どんな技能を持っていようが職を離れて金を掘り起こしに行ったのです

This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

コール医師もそんなひとりです

he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.

フィラデルフィアからパナマ経由で

They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,

This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.

トーランド医師は 幌馬車を使いました

This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.

ふたりとも名医であったにも関わらず

These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,

患者を残して カリフォルニアを

Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.

同じようにネット・バブルではドクター・クープドットコムが出現しています

In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.

ゴールドラッシュに 人々は船から飛び降りるように殺到しました

The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak

サンフランシスコ港には 金を探しに行った乗務員が乗り捨てた船が

because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon

So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.

They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.

船をホテルにせざるを得なくなったそうです

You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.

ゴールド熱と同様にドットコム熱も

that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.

The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.

サンフランシスコの砦には1300人の兵士がいたのですが

Half of them deserted to go look for gold.

その半数が職務を放棄し金を探しに行ったのです

And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half

そしてミイラ取りがミイラになるのを恐れて

because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.

連れ戻す命令はなかったそうです

And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:

"The struggle between right and six dollars a month

「金が掘り当てられるかどうかで

and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."

月給６ドルと日給75ドルの差は厳しい」と書かれています

They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.

ゴールドラッシュにより燃え尽きる割合は非常に高かったのです

This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.

これはクロンダイク金鉱へ続くホワイト峠の道です

They loaded up their mules and their horses.

ラバや馬に重量オーバーになる程 荷物を積んで

And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,

どこまで行けばよいか当てもないまま

and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.

荷物の積みすぎでほとんどの馬は

In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died

before they could get where they were going.

「死に馬の道」と呼ばれるようになりました

And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:

カナダの内務大臣はこう書いたそうです

"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,

「荷馬が数千頭も死んで倒れている

with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,

sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes

and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,

まだ死んでなくとも 息も絶え絶えだ

often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,

こんなひどい状況はあまり知らされていないが

a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches

turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.

The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere

account for the myriads of ravens along the road.

数えきれないカラスが群がっている

The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,

この「死に馬の道」の残酷な光景は

the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,

cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."

And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,

臭いがないだけで インターネットも同様に

we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.

字幕リスト動画再生

ジェフ・ベゾス：電気の比喩 (Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor)

stuff

sort

incredibly

incredible