and the total production of the world's economy

世界経済の総生産は

was mostly the total agricultural output.

ほぼ農業の総生産に等しく

And this output was limited by the fixed size of the land.

この生産量は、土地の面積に よって制約されていたので

The total output of the economy did not change a lot year by year.

長い間、毎年の経済規模は ずっと変わることがなかった

The size of the pie was fixed; the world was a zero-sum game.

パイのサイズが 固定されていたので

In such a stagnating world, the only way to get better off is if someone else gets worse off.

世界はゼロサムゲームだった

if you take a bigger piece of the pie, someone else's gets smaller.

そんな停滞した世界では

If you want more food, then conquering, plundering, and stealing are great strategies.

暮らし向きを良くするには 他人を不幸にするしかなかった

Your neighbors loss is your gain.

パイからたくさんの部分を取れば 他の人の取り分が少なくなる

This was the state of things for thousands of years.

食べ物がたくさん欲しければ、 征服し略奪し盗むのが良い戦略だった

Societies invaded each other constantly to get more pie.

隣人の損失が あなたの利得となる

Economic inequality was extreme.

これが何千年もの間 この世の状態だった

Some had all the pie they wanted, while others had to live with the crumbs.

社会はパイを求めて 常に侵略しあい

Then, the Industrial Revolution happened and everything changed.

経済的な不平等は極端だった

We developed machinery, better crops, better fertilizers.

全てを持つ者と 何も持たない者がいた

Agricultural output skyrocketed, but we didn't just produce more food - every industrial sector exploded in terms of productivity.

そして産業革命が起こり すべてが変わった

From 1700 to 1870, the production of iron in Britain increased 137 fold.

機械化が進み収穫は増え、 肥料の使用も進み

The Industrial Revolution led to a previously unimaginable increase in economic output.

農業生産は飛躍的に向上した

This altered the nature of our societies.

食料の生産が増えた だけでなく

Economic growth changed the world from a zero-sum game to a positive-sum game.

あらゆる産業分野が 爆発的に成長した

We had found a way to create a bigger pie - but not only a bigger pie, but a pie that was growing bigger each year.

1700年から1870年の間に

More people could have more at the same time.

イギリスの鉄の生産高は 137倍になり

This development is spreading and continuing today.

産業革命は以前には想像できないほどの 経済成長をもたらした

Antibiotics kill bacteria.

これは我々の社会の 性質を変えた

Power plants deliver energy.

経済成長は世界をゼロサムゲームから プラスサムゲームに変えた

Cell phones connect us.

我々はパイを大きくする 方法を発見したのだ

Planes let us travel cheaply.

単なる大きなパイではなく 毎年大きくなるパイだ

Fridges store food.

より多くの人が同時に より多くの物を得ることができた

Continuous progress in all sectors of the economy seems normal to us today,

この発展は拡大し続け 今も続いている

but the change from stagnation to economic growth really was the most drastic shift in human history.

抗生物質は細菌を殺し

How was this possible?

発電所は電力を供給し

At the very core of this massive transformation stand new ideas that lead to innovation.

人々はケータイで繋がり

Innovation has many different definitions,

飛行機で格安に旅行でき

but in the context of this video, we mean better solutions to existing problems

冷蔵庫は食物を貯蔵する

and solutions to problems we didn't know we had.

経済のすべての分野での進歩は 我々にはふつうのことに思えるが

The more you innovate,

停滞から経済成長への 変化は

the more complex and interesting problems you discover as your wishes and needs evolve.

人類の歴史で最も 劇的な変化だった

The average citizen in Norway 250 years ago might have wanted some really good shoes.

どうして可能になったのか?

150 years ago, maybe a bicycle.

この巨大な変化の核心には、技術革新に つながる新しいアイデアがある

80 years ago, a car.

技術革新には 多くの定義があるが

30 years ago, cheap air travel. And so on.

ここでは、存在する課題への より良い解決法という意味だ

Once we get what we want, we don't stop;

今まで知らなかった解決法を 知るようになった

we can see how we can improve things even more, and how to make things even better.

技術革新が進むほど

The new positive-sum world has existed for 0.1% of human history and we have yet to get used to it.

複雑で面白い課題を 発見することになる

It has a consequence that feels really unintuitive.

250年前の平均的な ノルウェーの市民なら

In a positive-sum world,

上等な靴を 求めるだろうが

it's in your personal selfish best interest that every human on planet earth is well off.

150年前なら自転車を

It's good for you if people in obscure parts of countries you've never heard of are prospering.

80年前なら自動車を

There is a genuine selfish argument for making the world a better place.

30年前なら安価な飛行機旅行を 求める、といった具合だ

In a positive-sum world, the more people are well-off, the better your own life is.

ひとたび希望がかなえば とどまるところを知らない

This is because of the nature of innovation;

物事を改善するにはどうすれば いいかが分かるのだ

it is fundamentally driven by supply and demand.

新しいプラスサムゲームの 世界は歴史上新しく

The supply increases when more people have the freedom and education to contribute.

私たちはまだ それに慣れていない

They become inventors, researchers, engineers or thinkers that come up with new ideas.

直感に反する結論だが

The demand for ideas increases as people get richer, and can pay for new solutions.

プラスサムゲームの世界では

They increase the size of the market for innovations.

すべての人が良くなるためには

Innovation follows incentives.

あなたは利己的に利益を追求すべきなのだ

So naturally, if many people want and can pay for something, it will get the innovators attention and energy.

知らない国の人が繁盛することは あなたにとっても良いことなのだ

Improving the lives of those who are worst off has a multiplying effect.

これが世界をより良い場所に するための利己主義である

It increases demand for ideas while at the same time,

プラスサムゲームの世界では 他人が栄えるほどあなたも幸福になれる

making it easier for ideas to be produced.

それは技術革新の性質のためだ

Let's take an example that interests all of us - a cure for cancer.

技術革新は需要と供給に よって駆動される

If there are 1 billion people in the world that have the wealth to pay for cancer treatments,

より多くの人が自由と教育を 得るほど、供給は増える

innovation will follow this demand.

そうした人たちは発明家や研究者、 技術者、思索家になるからだ

So hundreds of billions of dollars have been invested in medical research.

人々が豊かになるほど 新しいアイデアへの需要は増える

This had a huge effect, but we're still nowhere near to curing all forms of cancer.

それらは技術革新の 市場を拡大する

Today, every sixth person in the world dies of cancer, and you might be one of them.

インセンティブがあるところに 技術革新が起こる

Now, imagine if demand were higher.

多くの人が望み、 購買力があるなら

Imagine instead of 1 billion people being able to pay for a cure for cancer, there were 4 billion or 7 billion.

革新家の注意と労力を 引きつけるだろう

Imagine how far medicine could have developed if we'd invested 7 times as much in curing cancer.

最も貧しい人の生活を改善する ことには相乗効果がある

On top of that, there's so much human potential being wasted right now.

それはアイデアへの 需要を増やすし

The work of a poor farmer in a developing nation is not useful to you.

アイデアを生まれやすくも するからだ

But if he becomes better off, his children might spend their time in university

誰もが関心を持つ がんの治療を例に取ろう

developing things that are useful to you.

がんの治療にお金を出せる人が 世界に10億人いるとしよう

Instead of having some hotspots of innovation in the developed world,

この需要に技術革新が応える

we would have many hotspots all over the world.

そこで数千億ドルが 医学研究に投資される

The research output of humanity would be many times what it is right now.

これは巨大な効果があるが まだ全てのがんの根治には程遠い

Could we have cured cancer by now if that were the case?

こんにち世界の6人に1人はがんで 亡くなり、あなたもその一人かも

Well, maybe.

そこでもし需要がもっと あったとしたら

If we spent 7 times as much on research, had 7 times as many people working on it,

がんの根治に支払える人が10億人ではなく 40億や70億人だったとしたら

and a global network of medical research, things would certainly be further ahead than they are now.

7倍の投資があったら、 医学がどれほど進歩するだろう

And this is the core of the argument:

いまはまだ使われていない 人類の潜在力は莫大なのだ

the more people want the same thing that you want,

発展途上国の貧しい農民の労働は あなたには役立たないが

the more likely you are to get it.

彼の暮らしが良くなり、 彼の子供が大学に行って

That is what it means to live in a positive-sum world.

発展に寄与すれば それはあなたにも役に立つ

You don't gain more pie if poor places stay poor.

先進国だけの技術革新の ホットスポットのかわりに

Instead, you get more pie if poor places get richer, contribute ideas, and grow the global pie.

全世界に多数のホットスポットを 広げられるのだ

Do you like space travel?

人類の研究成果は現在の 何倍にもなるだろう

Imagine there were billions of people in Africa and Asia with their own space programs,

その場合すぐにでも がんは根治できるだろうか?

and demand for satellites and moon bases and cities on Mars.

そう、たぶん

Do you like being alive?

もし7倍のお金を研究に使い 7倍の研究者が働いたなら

A few billion people paying for medical research could literally save your life.

医学研究の世界的ネットワークは 今よりずっと進展するだろう

It's in your interest for people around the world to become better off.

これが議論の核心である

The faster we get to this version of the world, the better for you personally.

あなたと同じものを 望む人が多いほど

No matter what your motivation is, working on a better world is a very good thing to do -

あなたはそれを 得やすくなる

for others, and for you.

それがプラスサムゲームの世界に 生きているという意味なのだ

This video was a collaboration with Max Roser and Our World in Data,

貧しい世界が貧しいままでは パイの取り分は増えず

and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

世界のパイが大きくなれば あなたの取り分も大きくなる

If you want to help us stay afloat and make more videos,

宇宙旅行がしたい?

you can support us on Patreon or get some of our fancy posters.

アフリカとアジアの何十億の人々に それぞれの宇宙計画があって